Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2003. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 106-110).

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This thesis presents three essays on the role of international capital flows in growth, real exchange rate behavior and the conduct of domestic monetary policy in four Asian economies. The first chapter develops an endogenous growth model based on an infinitely-lived optimizing representative agent. Data from the four Asian countries is used to test the implications of the model. Using applied time series econometric techniques, the results for Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand lend credence to the endogenous growth process, while it is rejected for Indonesia. Chapter 2 develops a three-good model for the internal real exchange rate to identify the fundamental determinants of the internal real exchange rates for exports and imports. The examination of the time series properties of the variables suggests that the internal real exchange rates in the ASEAN-4 countries were indeed driven by the fundamentals derived from the model. Furthermore, the results indicate that there was no misalignment between the actual and equilibrium real exchange rates. Movements in the real exchange rates were thus equilibrium responses to changes in the fundamentals. The third chapter estimates coefficients of capital flow offset to domestic monetary policy and sterilization and analyzes the implications for domestic monetary autonomy. The relative performance of the monetary model and the portfolio balance model is compared using quarterly data for the four countries. The empirical results show that the capital flow offset was less than complete and that sterilization turned out to be ineffective in three of the four countries.

The value of the RMB, China's currency has become a contentious issue. China's RMB exchange rate regime has moved from a fixed exchange rate before July 2005, to a managed floating change rate regime. There has been external pressure on China to agree to the RMB's appreciation to the US dollar. There is a common view that the RMB is considerably undervalued at this moment, with some quarrelling that this is an issue of global concern. This study has two objectives. First, to review and critically comment on China's exchange rate regime over the period 1994 to 2008. Second, to review and critically comment on whether the RMB was undervalued over the period 1994 to 2008. This study shows that the evidence is mixed. The popular Big Mac Index shows that the RMB was significantly undervalued from 1994 to 2008. In contrast, this study reviewed research that provides evidence for alternative perspectives on the valuation of RMB. / Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Wesville, 2009.

Currency exposure has become a widespread issue as more corporations of all sizes source and sell in overseas markets and compete both at home and abroad with international companies. Very few companies are unaffected by currency risk, whether directly or indirectly. Businesses that source products from foreign countries face the risk that exchange rate movement will erode gross margins if competition prevents selling prices from rising in tandem, while resource-based companies face the uncertainty associated with the fact that the world's commodities markets are denominated in US Dollars or Pounds Sterling while their costs are often denominated in their local currencies. Businesses that ignore exchange rate volatility expose themselves to unnecessary risk, which could have significant consequences if exchange rates suddenly move unfavourably. The volatility of the South African Rand over the past few years is forcing treasurers and other managers responsible for international trade to look anew at how South African exchange rate fluctuations affect their company's results. Many companies have suffered from the effects of fluctuating exchange rates; some have reported losses running into millions of Rand. While more and more firms realize that they should manage foreign exchange risk, not all of them have come up with an appropriate management strategy. There has always been a great deal of debate over the best approach to hedging, or the best methods to forecast exchange rates; however hedging is of the utmost importance for companies. With the recent volatility of the rand, the multinational firm covered in this thesis, showed foreign exchange losses amounting to several millions, using forward exchange contracts to cover its high foreign exchange exposures. The major disadvantage of the forward contract as experienced by the firm and shown in this thesis is that it is a legally binding agreement and thus the firm was bound to accept the agreed exchange rate and also the fact that the exchange itself had to be done. If the commercial reason for the exchange disappeared, the cost of cancelling the forward contract would be quite high. In addition, if the exchange rate at maturity was more favourable to the firm than the one agreed to in the forward contract, the firm will still have to honour the contract and will not be able to take advantage of the favourable exchange rate. Thus, with FEC there is the elimination of the opportunity for profit, should exchange rates turn out favourably. When purchasing a currency option, however, the holder is protected from downward movements in the exchange rate whist still having the opportunity to benefit if the currency moves favourably. Hence, the purpose of this thesis was to evaluate the use of currency options as an alternative hedging strategy to forward exchange contracts to manage the firm's foreign exchange risk. It was found that, had the firm used currency options as compared to FEC over the last four years, the firm would have made significant saving in spite of the option premium. The firm would have enjoyed the flexibility offered by currency options, that is, to let the contract lapse when it would not be to the firm's advantage thus making a lower payment for its imports than would be paid under the forward exchange contract for the same period. The results were tested over a period of four years to prove that the difference in payments using the FEC and the currency options were statistically significant. What was apparent from the research, however, was that though the multinational firm could choose from a vast array of financial instruments and currency derivatives to manage its foreign exchange risk, the firm chose to stick to using forward exchange contracts. The reasons varied from fear of dealing with the complexities of the many instruments available on the market to the limited resources within the foreign exchange department to understand the technicalities of the various instruments. The investigation revealed though forward cover as used by the firm was more efficient in terms of ease of use. Currency options when applied to cover the firm's foreign imports resulted in less cash outflow, making it better and more profitable than forward exchange contracts. Options contract, though more expensive, would have allowed the firms to let the option lapse and therefore benefit from spot exchange rates if these were more favourable. / Thesis (M.B.A.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2006.

The immediate objectives of exchange-rate policy should be stability of output, stability of the rate of inflation and stability of the exchange rate itself. Moreover, exchange-rate policy is likely to be of some use in achieving these aims, as the modifications to the rational expectations theory which make monetary policy effective do so for exchange-rate policy as well, and additional channels of effectiveness operate in an open economy. There are various explanations for the volatility of exchange rates under free floating, but a more realistic picture of the reaction to external disturbances is obtained if step changes in interest rates are allowed for by considering the term structure of interest rates and the influence of the terms of trade on the demand for money. Capital is not in fact perfectly mobile internationally, which widens the range of policy options, and some modifications of the theory are required to study the determinants of capital flows in an imperfect world. One can use the correlation between deviations of output and inflation from trend to study the origin of disturbances. This is illustrated by a study of eighteen sub-Saharan African countries. Furthermore, the type and origin of disturbances have implications for whether some sort of dual exchange-rate or dual interest-rate system is desirable. Finally, a model of an open economy is presented in which exchange-rate policy can be analyzed whether specified in terms of exchange-rate targets or the degree of intervention, and with the possibility of a restricted forward foreign-exchange market. A variant of the model is estimated for South Africa for the period 1974-1981 and various exchange-rate policies are simulated.

本篇論文使用Correlation of Coefficient 與 Johansen cointegration test來探討股票市場與匯率市場之間的連動性。實證結果顯示股票市場與匯率市場之間有高度的相關性，特別是在西元2000年之後，全球呈現出集體的連動性。而此兩變數之間的關係亦可在不同的地區或是不同的工業化程度國家下看見不同的結果，歐體以及諸多新興市場等區域內皆呈現出股市與匯市相關係數的一致性。然而，當此研究以Johansen cointegration test來分析時，無法在此兩研究變數間發現顯著的長期關係。 / This study utilized Correlation of Coefficient as well as Johansen cointegration test to investigate the relationship between stock prices and exchange markets. The empirical results show that the two markets of study are highly correlated, especially after the year of 2000. Since then, the stock prices and exchange rates worldwide have presented one common trend, either negative correlation or positive. Different region, such as European Union or East Asian countries exclude Japan, and different level of industrialization lead to diverse relationship between exchange rates and stock prices. Put this relationship in a long-term scope, however, no distinct trend can be discerned by using Johansen cointegration test.

Whether or not currency markets may be regarded as efficient or not has been a hotly debated issue in the academic literature over recent decades. Economic theory would suggest that these markets should be efficient because they are apparently good examples of a perfectly competitive market structure. On the other hand, empirical tests of the efficient market hypothesis within these currency markets unequivocally find them to be inefficient. There is still no good explanation for this conundrum and as a result a fair amount of effort is still expended on refining the empirical studies of market efficiency, a task which is taken up in the four empirical studies that comprise this thesis. Within efficient markets, prices are predicted to respond &quotquickly" with the arrival of new information and the empirical work in the thesis focuses on these issues by identifying three key areas for research, namely, price adjustment and volatility, volatility and the &quotnews", and the speed of price adjustment. In essence, the studies examine whether there is inefficient adjustment to news in terms of excessive volatility, whether or not news is actually the main driver of exchange rate volatility and whether or not &quotquickly" can be measured empirically. The empirical results reported within this thesis confirm that the Australian dollar has not been an excessively volatile currency, even though the level of volatility has been increasing; that the pattern of information flow explains a significant degree of the non constant variance in the returns of the world's most actively traded currencies, (i.e. information explains price innovation); that the reaction time to macroeconomic news occurs within seconds of a pre-scheduled announcement, and that the bulk of adjustment to fundamental value occurs within the hour. These findings are consistent with what would be expected within an efficient market. The results reported within this thesis therefore suggest that the currency markets studied are efficient, at least for the sample periods of the data used in the studies. Exchange rates adjust rapidly with information arrival albeit not completely. It is also the case that a number of additional research questions emerge from this research. For example we know that volatility is not excessive and that it is increasing. What we do not know is the point at which increasing volatility becomes excessive. We know that exchange rates react quickly with the arrival of macroeconomic news, but we do not know precisely how long it takes for volatility to return to preannouncement levels, or why the reaction to news is inconsistent. We also do not know what type of information best explains volatility above that which is explained by the systematic dissemination of information or why full adjustment to fundamental value does not occur? Answers to these questions provide a future research agenda. Answers may provide insight that will help financial economists explain the apparent failure of the speculative efficient hypothesis.

Thesis (MBusiness-Research)--University of South Australia, 2001.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Texas at El Paso, 2007. / Title from title screen. Vita. CD-ROM. Includes bibliographical references. Also available online.