M.A. / Financial markets are rapidly integrating into a single global market place, and developing countries including South Africa, are increasingly part of this process. The process is being driven by both the push and the pull factors in both developed and developing countries. Nevertheless, the overwhelming majority of the developing countries still need to create the conditions to attract long-term capital flows. Although South Africa has been attracting capital flows since the 1990s, the level is not sustainable because it mainly attracts shortterm capital. It has failed to attract long-term capital on a sustainable basis because of economic and political crises facing the country. Thus, the South African government needs to build the kind of macroeconomic, regulatory and institutional environment that channels this private capital into broad - based and sustainable growth.

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2017. / This study examines the relationship between major commodity exports and the real exchange rate of commodity exporting countries. We make use of monthly commodity price time series data to determine the causality relationship between exchange rates and the top three commodity exports from 5 commodity exporting countries (Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Norway and South Africa). Due to the phenomenon called “Dutch Disease” commodity exporting countries’ economies are found not to experience large economic success during periods of booming export commodity prices. Using data from the IMF IFS database, only one country out of the five included in this study shows evidence of conitegration relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates, although there is some evidence of commodity prices explaining the movement of exchange rates in all five countries. We find that commodity prices do play a role in the exchange rates movement in commodity exporting countries. / MT2017

This dissertation examines the pricing of the same credit risk in two currencies, and hence the valuation of credit-contingent foreign exchange products. Such pricing hinges upon the dependence of the credit risk and the foreign exchange rate. We recall the reduced-form model proposed by Ehlers (2007), which allows credit-currency dependence through correlation between the Brownian motions driving the default intensity and the exchange rate, and through a jump in the exchange rate at the default time. Four basic specifications of this model are considered. Two of these specifications have not previously appeared in the literature and one of these, based on a lognormal process for the default intensity, proves to be especially useful and tractable. The problem of hedging defaultable claims in one currency with similar claims in another is briefly considered, and it is shown that hedging against the default event and against credit spread movements are not in general equivalent.

Thesis (Ph.D. (Economics))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Economic & Business Sciences, 2016. / The objective of this thesis is to investigate the recent historical dynamics of the four major nominal bilateral spot foreign exchange rates and the fifteen currency-basket nominal effective exchange rate of the South African rand (hereafter referred to as the rand). The thesis has been organised as three separate studies that add to the advancement of the knowledge of the characteristics and behaviour (causal effects) of the rand. The common thread that holds the individual chapters together is the study of the dynamics of the rand. In particular, the study establishes whether the apparent nonstationarity of the exchange rate is a product of unit root test misspecification (a failure to account for structural change), considers the connexions between the timing of the identified structural shifts and important economic and noneconomic events, and analyses rand volatility and the temporal effect of monetary policy surprises on both the spot foreign exchange market returns and volatility of the rand. In order to do this, low- and high-frequency data are employed. With regard to exchange rate modelling, the theoretical economic-exchange rate frameworks are approached both from the traditional macro-based view of exchange rate determination and a micro-based perspective. The various methodologies applied here tackle different aspects of the exchange rate dynamics. To preview the results, we find that adjusting for structural shifts in the unit root tests does not render any of the exchange rates stationary. However, the results show a remarkable fall in the estimates of volatility persistence when structural breaks are integrated into the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) framework. The empirical results also shed light on the impact of modelling exchange rates as long memory processes, the extent of asymmetric responses to ‘good news’ and ‘bad news’, the consistencies and contrasts in the five exchange rate series’ volatility dynamics, and the timing and likely triggers of volatility regime switching. Additionally, there are convincing links between the timing of structural changes and important economic (and noneconomic) events, and commonality in the structural breaks detected in the levels and volatility of the rand. We also find statistically and economically significant high-frequency exchange rate returns and volatility responses to domestic interest rate surprises. Furthermore, the rapid response of the rand to monetary policy surprises suggests a relatively high degree of market efficiency (from a mechanical perspective) in processing this information. Keywords: Exchange rate, expectations, long memory, monetary policy surprises, repo rate, structural breaks, volatility; unit root. JEL Code: C22, E52, E58, F31, F41, G14 and G15

Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi / This paper examines the likelihood that the United States would engage in a policy of exchange rate stabilization with the EMU. First, it examines the history of the exchange rate regimes in the United States and a review of literature on exchange rate theories. From a historical perspective, most literature and prominent economic theories focus on the Milton Friedman proposal of floating exchange rate regimes. Just as floating exchange rates were gaining prominence in the United States during the 1970s, European countries were attempting to compose a currency union which took the form of the European Monetary System in the late 1970s and eventually evolved into Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union which completed its last stage of development January 1, 1999. The importance of fixed exchange rate regimes and theories, most notably, Robert Mundell’s Theory of Optimal Currency Area is highlighted. In addition, the paradigm arguments on the relation between trade integration and synchronization of business cycles are discussed utilizing Paul Krugman and Tony Venables’ specialization hypothesis (1996) and comparing it to Jeffrey Frankel and Andrew Rose’ endogeneity hypothesis (1998). Second, this analysis shows that the United States’ economy is at a critical point in time in which it must reevaluate its stance on floating exchange rates. Particular attention is paid to current economic conditions in the United States and the EMU such as: the purchasing power of the euro with respect to the U.S. dollar, the recent decline of the dollar, the lackluster performance of the EMU with regard to some macroeconomic variables, and the profligate spending by the U.S. government which has contributed to the tremendous budget deficit. Third, this paper analyzes six properties of optimal currency area criteria: degree of economic openness, trade integration and similarity of economic structure, financial market integration, synchronization of business cycles, price flexibility, and mobility of labor as a factor of production. The countries of France and Germany are utilized as benchmarks (if they satisfy the criterion) against which the United States and EMU are compared. The time periods of (1946-1972) and (1973-2003) are utilized to highlight the advantages and disadvantages of various exchange rate regimes and to try and shed light on the endogeneity hypothesis and specialization hypothesis. This thesis concludes that France and Germany failed to satisfy certain OCA criteria such as business cycle synchronization, price flexibility, and mobility of labor as a factor of production. Although France and Germany did not fulfill all of the OCA properties, the United States and the EMU appear to be farther from optimality, only satisfying mobility of labor as a factor of production. Finally, according to this paper neither the endogeneity hypothesis nor the specialization hypothesis dominates. Therefore, the United States should not stabilize rates with the EMU because it will most likely incur greater costs than benefits since it does not form an optimal currency area with the EMU. Intermediate exchange rate policies should be evaluated and further research conducted to enhance OCA criteria and make it a more scientific and effective tool for policymakers. The findings of this paper shed light on the history of exchange rate regimes, exchange rate theories, and current economic conditions that warrant a reevaluation of the United States’ foreign exchange rate position while at the same time indicating which characteristics of the U.S. economy satisfy optimality and emphasizing the importance of further research in this field. / Thesis (BS) — Boston College, 2005. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics. / Discipline: College Honors Program.

Thesis advisor: Georg Strasser / Exchange Rate Pass Through (ERPT) is the percentage change in a destination country’s import price given a percentage change in the exchange rate. A complete ERPT occurs when import price decreases by the same percentage as the depreciation of the exporting country’s currency and vice versa. In this paper I analyze ERPT in large and small open economies, and hypothesize that as destination economy size gets larger, ERPT will decrease. Reasons I provide to support this hypothesis are: the import share of exporters in destination economies, the demand elasticity that foreign exporters face, and the proportion of consumer demand to world demand that the foreign exporter faces. I find, with statistical significance, that ERPT decreases as the destination economy size increases. The main reason attributed to this inverse relationship is the import share of foreign exporters in destination economies. As import share of the foreign exporter increases, ERPT increases within those destination economies. Since foreign exporters have a higher chance of establishing a large import share in small economies than in large economies, they have a better chance of passing through exchange rate changes into destination country prices. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2011. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program. / Discipline: Economics.

Lam, Yu Fung. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 40-43). / Abstract also in Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Methodology --- p.6 / Chapter 2.1 --- Brownian Motion --- p.6 / Chapter 2.2 --- Reflected Brownian Motion --- p.8 / Chapter 2.3 --- Partially Reflected Brownian Motion --- p.11 / Chapter 3 --- Numerical Analysis --- p.15 / Chapter 3.1 --- Comparison of RBM and PRBM --- p.15 / Chapter 3.2 --- Initial state far from the boundaries --- p.17 / Chapter 3.3 --- Initial state close to a boundary --- p.17 / Chapter 4 --- A Study of the USD/HKD Exchange Rate --- p.23 / Chapter 4.1 --- Data Description --- p.23 / Chapter 4.2 --- Testing for the Mean-reverting Property --- p.25 / Chapter 4.3 --- Testing for Decreasing Volatility near the Boundaries --- p.27 / Chapter 4.4 --- Estimation Results --- p.27 / Chapter 5 --- Conclusion --- p.31 / Chapter A --- Derivation of MLE estimator --- p.33 / Chapter B --- Numerical Laplace Inversion --- p.35 / Chapter C --- Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test --- p.39 / Bibliography --- p.40

This dissertation consists of three essays on exchange rates and international finance with an emphasis on emerging economies. In Chapter 1, I provide empirical evidence that supports the hypothesis that exchange rate based stabilization programs are expansionary during their early phases. I derive a new set of stabilization episodes using extensive country chronologies from Reinhart and Rogoff (2004) and I find that even after controlling for external conditions, the initial expansion associated with the introduction of an exchange rate based program, is caused by both, the program itself and positive external conditions. These expansionary effects are robust to different estimation methods and different criteria for detecting stabilization episodes. In Chapter 2, I study the relationship between foreign interest rates, country spreads, terms of trade and macro fundamentals in emerging markets. I estimate a structural VAR for 15 emerging economies. I find that country spreads explain 12% of output fluctuations, foreign interest rates an additional 7% and the terms of trade about 5%. I also find that country spreads account for a quarter of real exchange rate variability while the terms of trade account for just 1%. To further validate these results, I develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for a small open economy. The model incorporates several open economy frictions: i) bond-holding adjustment costs, ii) investment adjustment costs, iii) a working capital constraint, and iv) a country spread component that depends upon macro fundamentals, which is taken from the estimated VAR. The model is able to replicate fairly good the propagation effects of foreign rates and country spread shocks but overestimates the importance of the terms of trades. In Chapter 3, I investigate the relation between volatility in the foreign exchange market and excess returns on carry trade portfolios for the G10 currencies. I develop and compare three different investment strategies that aim at avoiding losses when volatility jumps, a common feature of the carry trade. I find that two trading strategies, one based on implied volatility from FX options and the other on exponentially-weighted moving averages, provide better risk-adjusted returns than the standard carry trade. A third strategy, based on Markov-switching exchange rate forecasts, provides excess returns for some currencies but fails for portfolios of currencies. I also show that currency investing provides superior Sharpe ratios than a benchmark bond portfolio and a benchmark stock portfolio, even after including the recent global financial crisis.

Este trabalho apresenta uma abordagem inovadora para a modelagem do risco cambial. Ao invés de utilizar regressões de MQO \"equação por equação\", explora-se a correlação contemporânea e estrutural entre os choques de preferência num sistema de equações de precificação de ativos. Estima-se um modelo via SUR em uma amostra de excessos de retorno de países entre 1999Q1 e 2014Q2, utilizando-se novos fatores de risco associados ao PIB das diferentes economias. O modelo empírico é derivado de preferências que são consistentes com um problema de economia aberta, em contraste com a abordagem habitual que utiliza o crescimento do consumo de bens duráveis e não-duráveis como fatores de risco. A estratégia econométrica escolhida leva a uma melhora significativa da precisão das quantidades de risco (betas) estimadas. A relação positiva entre taxas de juros e quantidades de risco, contudo, não é corroborada para todos os betas. / This thesis presents an innovative approach for modeling currency risk. Instead of using equation by equation OLS, we explore the structural contemporaneous correlation between preference shocks across a system of asset pricing equations. SUR regressions as well as new risk factors lead to a marked improvement in efficiency for the estimation of the quantities of risk (betas) in a sample of country excess returns from 1999Q1 to 2014Q2. However, the monotonic relation between interest rates and quantities of risk is not statistically significant for all betas. Our model is derived from preferences that are consistent to an open economy problem, in contrast to the typical approach of using durable and non-durable consumption growth as risk factors.

Abstract not available