Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 2007. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 98-105).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Nevada, Reno, 2008. / "August, 2008." Includes bibliographical references (leaves 95-100). Online version available on the World Wide Web.

The advent of advanced means of communication, faster modes of transportation and sophisticated trading technologies has facilitated economic and financial integration across the world. The emergence of globalization in the last two decades has transformed the economic outlook and perceptions of consumers, investors and policymakers. Consumers have a vast range of goods and services to choose from, investors seeking to maximize profits and minimize risks have access to markets worldwide and last, but not least, policymakers can harness the benefits accruing from international trade to abet economic growth and development. Although augmented economic and financial integration has its benefits, it does have its pitfalls as well. Highly synchronized financial and goods markets are relatively less insulated from disturbances or shocks arising in foreign markets. This synchrony makes these markets more susceptible to foreign shocks, thus, compromising their economic autonomy. Accordingly, the issue economic interdependence among countries warrants a detailed investigation. This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay investigates exchange rate dynamics among the ASEAN-5 economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. The second essay is dedicated to a detailed analysis of real and monetary interrelationships among the economies of Norway, Sweden, the UK and the US. In the third essay, the short-term and the long-term co-movements among the price of crude oil and the real exchange rates of the Canadian Dollar and the Norwegian Krone are examined. Exchange rate movements are central to international trade and finance as they directly impact the relative price of goods and services in domestic and foreign markets. Fluctuations in exchange rates can have a significant bearing on the terms of trade and the value of foreign asset holdings. Moreover, they can potentially transmit economic shocks across countries. Consequently, exchange rate dynamics are of keen interest to investors and policymakers alike. In the first essay, common trends and common cycles among the exchange rates of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand are investigated in detail. We identify and isolate the permanent and transitory components of the nominal exchange rates of the currencies of Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand in an effort to examine the similitude of their responses to within-country and across-country economic disturbances in the long-run as well as in the short-run. This also allows us to ascertain the relative impacts of permanent and transitory shocks on the behavior of the observed exchange rate series. We find that a large proportion of economic and financial shocks have a dual impact on the behavior of the exchange rates, i.e., while a proportion of the impact of certain shocks is transitory and fades away with time, there is a persistent proportion of these shocks that alters the long-run path of the exchange rates. Thus, most shocks cannot be considered as exclusively transitory or permanent. It is observed that in the case of pegged exchange rate regimes, the trend and cyclical components move in opposite directions and offset the impacts of one another. The small open economies of Norway and Sweden rely extensively on foreign trade. Outside the Scandinavian group of countries, Germany and the UK are two of their biggest trading partners within the European Union (EU), while the US is one of their largest non-EU trading partners. Real and monetary disturbances in one or more countries can easily be transmitted to other countries that are linked through channels of trade. Consequently, the assessment of the impact of foreign shocks on the domestic economy is central to the formulation of economic policy. In light of this, the second essay is dedicated to the investigation of the impact of real and monetary disturbances arising in the major trading partners of Norway and Sweden on their respective price levels and outputs. Such an assessment may provide useful insights into the nature of the transmission mechanism of economic disturbances across these countries and may prove to be useful in the formulation and conduct of monetary policy. The central banks of Norway and Sweden seek output stability while explicitly targeting pre-specified inflation rates in order to conduct monetary policy. The achievement of such quantitative targets relies considerably on the forecasts of the target variables themselves, and of the impact of the changes in the instrument variables that are adjusted to achieve the targets. Our results indicate that output shocks have a more significant impact than monetary shocks on the GDPs of both Norway and Sweden. While the GDPs of Norway and Sweden are predominantly influenced by output shocks originating in Norway and Sweden in the short-run, the output shocks originating in the larger economies of the UK and the US dominate the variation in the GDPs of Norway and Sweden in the long-run. We find that monetary shocks have a more significant impact than real shocks on the CPI variables of both Norway and Sweden. Specifically, the monetary shocks originating in Norway, Sweden and the UK are found to be more significant than those originating in the US. Crude oil constitutes a large proportion of exports for Canada and Norway. In fact, they are two of the largest net exporters of crude oil in the world. Therefore, oil price shocks may significantly impact the trade balance of these countries, thereby, prompting their monetary and fiscal authorities to intervene. The nature and the degree of the intervention would depend significantly on the assessment as to whether these shocks are permanent and/or transitory. Accordingly, the links among the trends and cycles in the price of crude oil, the real exchange rate of the Canadian Dollar and the real exchange rate of the Norwegian Krone are investigated in the third essay. We address this issue by ascertaining the presence of common trends and common cycles among the price of crude oil and the two real exchange rates, and then decomposing them into their trend and cyclical components in a multivariate modeling framework. We find that, while the real exchange rates of the Canadian Dollar and the Norwegian Krone vis-à-vis the US Dollar are trend-dominated, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price is neither trend-dominated nor cycle-dominated. We also find evidence for a positive relationship among the cyclical components of the WTI crude oil price and the two real exchange rates. As a robustness check, common trends and common cycles among the Brent crude oil price denominated in Euros, and the real exchange rates of the Canadian Dollar and the Norwegian Krone vis-à-vis the Euro are also examined. As in the previous case, we find evidence for the presence of common trends as well as common cycles. The positive co-movement among the cyclical components of the price of crude oil and the real exchange rates appears to be robust to changes in the numeraire currency. However, we observe a slight contrast in the co-movement among the trend components of the three variables when different numeraire currencies are used. The composition of the dissertation is as follows: The first chapter serves as an introduction to the dissertation and presents a broad picture of the analyses undertaken in this dissertation. Chapters two, three and four comprise essays one, two and three respectively. Chapter five concludes the dissertation.

Este trabalho apresenta uma abordagem inovadora para a modelagem do risco cambial. Ao invés de utilizar regressões de MQO \"equação por equação\", explora-se a correlação contemporânea e estrutural entre os choques de preferência num sistema de equações de precificação de ativos. Estima-se um modelo via SUR em uma amostra de excessos de retorno de países entre 1999Q1 e 2014Q2, utilizando-se novos fatores de risco associados ao PIB das diferentes economias. O modelo empírico é derivado de preferências que são consistentes com um problema de economia aberta, em contraste com a abordagem habitual que utiliza o crescimento do consumo de bens duráveis e não-duráveis como fatores de risco. A estratégia econométrica escolhida leva a uma melhora significativa da precisão das quantidades de risco (betas) estimadas. A relação positiva entre taxas de juros e quantidades de risco, contudo, não é corroborada para todos os betas. / This thesis presents an innovative approach for modeling currency risk. Instead of using equation by equation OLS, we explore the structural contemporaneous correlation between preference shocks across a system of asset pricing equations. SUR regressions as well as new risk factors lead to a marked improvement in efficiency for the estimation of the quantities of risk (betas) in a sample of country excess returns from 1999Q1 to 2014Q2. However, the monotonic relation between interest rates and quantities of risk is not statistically significant for all betas. Our model is derived from preferences that are consistent to an open economy problem, in contrast to the typical approach of using durable and non-durable consumption growth as risk factors.

In this article, we combine two so far separate strands of the economic literature and argue that democratization leads to a real exchange rate appreciation. We test this hypothesis empirically for a sample of countries observed from 1980 to 2007 by combining a difference-in-difference approach with propensity score matching estimators. Our empirical results reveal a strong and significant finding: democratization causes real exchange rates to appreciate. Consequently, the ongoing process of democratization observed in many parts of the world is likely to reduce exchange rate distortions.

We document how sampling from a conditional Student's t distribution is implemented in stochvol. Moreover, a simple example using EUR/CHF exchange rates illustrates how to use the augmented sampler. We conclude with results and implications. (author's abstract)

A growing number of Chinese corporations have been listing their shares on foreign stock markets. Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are their major targets. Taking China’s exchange rate system reform as a unique event, I examine the price disparity between A-share and H-share (or ADR) using a sample of 28 Chinese companies listed in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and New York. I conduct a panel-data investigation to examine the price disparity before and after the transition from the pegged to the managed floating exchange rate. I have obtained several important findings in this study. First, RMB exchange rate reform in 2005 has significant effect on price disparity between A-shares and H-shares and also between A-share and ADR, which shows that relaxation of the exchange rate control brings about a clear convergence of A-share price with foreign share price. This result is robust with different models. Second, we also found that currency factor has significant effect on price premium between A-shares and foreign shares. Appreciation in RMB would lead to a decrease in price premium. In addition, exchange rate reform exerts its effect whether or not we take into account the impact from the Split-share structure reform.

PhD (Advanced Nursing Science) / Department of Advanced Nursing Science / Cervical cancer may be preventable when screening services which detect cancerous cells at an early stage are utilized. Utilization of cervical cancer screening services, taking of Pap smear in particular, is effective if done systematically, that is, yearly or every ten years depending on whether the individual is at risk or not. Failure to utilize cervical cancer screening services predisposes women to cervical cancer because if one is affected, the disease will progress without one being aware. Studies have been carried out in this area, but not much has been done on strategies to promote the utilization of cervical cancer screening services. Purpose The purpose of this study was to develop an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. Objective The specific objectives were to explore and describe the provision of cervical cancer screening services by Primary Health Care Nurses (PHCNs); assess the awareness of women on the utilization of cervical cancer screening services; develop an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services and to validate an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services at Vhembe District in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Methodology The research was conducted in three phases. In Phase I, qualitative and quantitative approaches were used. The qualitative approach was used to explore experiences of nurses concerning the provision of cervical cancer screening services and the quantitative approach applied for assessment of the awareness of women on the utilization of cervical screening services. The population in the qualitative approach were PHCNs providing cervical cancer services and, in the quantitative approach, were women aged 20-59. Nonprobability purposive sampling was used to sample 15 PHCNs and 500 women. Ethical considerations, that is, the rights of all the stakeholders were honoured. Data was collected from PHCNs through semi-structured interviews using an interview guide and from women through questionnaires. Reliability and validity of the research was ensured. Qualitative data was analyzed through open-coding and quantitative data through descriptive statistics (frequencies and percentages). ABSTRACT vi Results In Phase II, an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa was developed. The Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis was used to analyze the validity. Political, economic, socio-cultural, technological, environmental factors and laws within the opportunities and threats landscape of cervical cancer screening services in Vhembe District were analyzed. The Build, Overcome, Explore and Minimize (BOEM) paradigm was used to developed the intervention strategy. In Phase III, the qualitative and quantitative approach was used to validate the developed intervention strategies. A purposive sampling was used to sample fifteen PHCNs and 4 four managers. Conclusions Intervention strategies with action plans were developed. Recommendations Recommendations related to implementation of strategies to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services were compiled.

The thesis is made up of three chapters that work on three distinct topics in macroeconomics. The first chapter is a theoretical work on monetary policy, in which a coherent and intuitive large-scale Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model matching with particulars of the Chinese economy is established to understand how and why Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) works within Chinese monetary policy regime. The second chapter reveals the relationship between phenomenon of inequality and secular stagnation with a three-period Overlapping Generations (OLG) model built within a heterogeneous agent framework. It also points out workable ways of conducting macroprudential policy given the aforesaid two phenomena. The third chapter both theoretically and empirically examines effectiveness of the currency board system in Hong Kong using an advanced macroeconomic modeling toolbox as well as a workhorse model used by a mass of central banks that is further modified to be in line with reality of the Hong Kong economy.

The thesis is made up of three chapters that work on three distinct topics in macroeconomics. The first chapter is a theoretical work on monetary policy, in which a coherent and intuitive large-scale Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model matching with particulars of the Chinese economy is established to understand how and why Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) works within Chinese monetary policy regime. The second chapter reveals the relationship between phenomenon of inequality and secular stagnation with a three-period Overlapping Generations (OLG) model built within a heterogeneous agent framework. It also points out workable ways of conducting macroprudential policy given the aforesaid two phenomena. The third chapter both theoretically and empirically examines effectiveness of the currency board system in Hong Kong using an advanced macroeconomic modeling toolbox as well as a workhorse model used by a mass of central banks that is further modified to be in line with reality of the Hong Kong economy.