A life distribution and its survival function F = 1 - F with finitemean y = /q F(x)dx are said to be HNBUE (HNWUE) if F(x)dx &lt; (&gt;)U exp(-t/y) for t &gt; 0. The major part of this thesis deals with the classof HNBUE (HNWUE) life distributions. We give different characterizationsof the HNBUE (HNWUE) property and present bounds on the moments and on thesurvival function F when this is HNBUE (HNWUE). We examine whether theHNBUE (HNWUE) property is preserved under some reliability operations andstudy some test statistics for testing exponentiality against the HNBUE(HNWUE) property.The HNBUE (HNWUE) property is studied in connection with shock models.Suppose that a device is subjected to shocks governed by a counting processN = {N(t): t &gt; 0}. The probability that the device survives beyond t isthen00H(t) = S P(N(t)=k)P, ,k=0where P^ is the probability of surviving k shocks. We prove that His HNBUE (HNWUE) under different conditions on N and * ^orinstance we study the situation when the interarrivai times between shocksare independent and HNBUE (HNWUE).We also study the Pure Birth Shock Model, introduced by A-Hameed andProschan (1975), and prove that H is IFRA and DMRL under conditions whichdiffer from those used by A-Hameed and Proschan.Further we discuss relationships between the total time on test transformHp^(t) = /q ^F(s)ds , where F \t) = inf { x: F(x) &gt; t}, and differentclasses of life distributions based on notions of aging. Guided by propertiesof we suggest test statistics for testing exponentiality agains t IFR,IFRA, NBUE, DMRL and heavy-tailedness. Different properties of these statisticsare studied.Finally, we discuss some bivariate extensions of the univariate properties NBU, NBUE, DMRL and HNBUE and study some of these in connection with bivariate shock models. / <p>There are some occurring misspellings in the formulas in the abstract on this webpage. Read the abstract in the full-text document for correct spelling in formulas, see the downloadable file.</p> / digitalisering@umu

Accurate forecasting is a real problem at many companies and that includes Alfa Laval in Lund. Alfa Laval experiences problems forecasting for future raw material demand. Management is aware that the forecasting methods used today can be improved or replaced by others. A change could lead to better forecasting accuracy and lower errors which means less inventory, shorter cycle times and better customer service at lower costs. The purpose of this study is to analyze Alfa Laval’s current forecasting models for demand of raw material used for pressed plates, and then determine if other models are better suited for taking into consideration trends and seasonal variation.

Surface-generalized ambient noise in a shallow ocean waveguide with a sediment layer possessing a specific class of density and sound speed distributions capable of describing a realistic seabed environment is considered in this analysis. This class of non-uniform sediment layer has the density and sound speed distributions varying with respect to depth as a genearlized-exponential and an inverse-square function, respectively. The study invokes a formulation developed by Kuperman and Ingenito for surface noise generation, in conjunction with the analytical solutions for the Helmholtz equation corresponding to the sediment layer, to arrive at an analytical expression convenient for numerical implementation. The intensity and spatial correlation of the noise sound field are analyzed with respect to the variations of the system parameters, including frequency, sediment layer thickness, sound speed gradient, with emphasis on the effects of sediment properties on the ambient noise field. The results have demonstrated that the intensity of the noise field is relatively sensitive to the variations of the paramters, while the spatial correlation is not, suggesting that the energy distribution, rather than the spatial structure, of the noise field is susceptible to the environmental variation.

Multiquadric collocation method is highly efficient for solving partial differential equations due to its exponential error convergence rate. More amazingly, there are two ways to reduce the error: the traditional way of refining the grid, and the unexpected way of simply increasing the value of shape constant $c$ contained in the multiquadric basis function, $sqrt{r^2 + c^2}$. The latter is accomplished without increasing computational cost. It has been speculated that in a numerical solution without roundoff error, infinite accuracy can be achieved by letting $c ightarrow infty$. The ability to obtain infinitely accurate solution is limited only by the roundoff error induced instability of matrix solution with large condition number. Using the arbitrary precision computation capability of {it Mathematica}, this paper tests the above conjecture. A sharper error estimate than previously obtained is presented in this paper. A formula for a finite, optimal $c$ value that minimizes the solution error for a given grid size is obtained. Using residual errors, constants in error estimate and optimal $c$ formula can be obtained. These results are supported by numerical examples.

The objective of this thesis is to develop and implement an algorithm for inverting the sound speed profile via estimation of the parameters embedded in a geoacoustic model. The environmental model inscribes a continuously-varying marine sediment layer with density and sound speed distributions represented by the generalized-exponential and inverse-square functions, respectively. Based upon a forward problem of plane-wave reflection from a non-uniform sediment layer overlying a uniform elastic basement, an inversion procedure for estimating the sound speed profile from the reflected sound field under the influence of noise is established and numerically implemented. The inversion invokes a probabilistic approach quantified by the posterior probability density for measuring the uncertainties of the estimated parameters from synthetic noisy data. Preliminary analysis on the solution of the forward problem and the sensitivity of the model parameters is first conducted, leading to a determination of the parameters chosen for inversion in the ensuing study. The parameter uncertainties referenced 1-D and 2-D marginal posterior probability densities are then examined, followed by the statistical estimation for the sound speed profile in terms of 99 % credibility interval. The effects of, the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), the dimension of data vector, the region in which the data sampled, on the statistical estimation of sound speed profile are demonstrated and discussed.

It is known that record values and order statistics are closely related. When record values and order statistics are viewed as point processes, the two processes both share the order statistics property. The results of Beg and Balasubramanian(1990), Wu and Ouyang(1996), and Huang and Su(1999) about record values and order statistics motivated us to investigate more general results of characterization for order statistics point processes by using conditional expectations based on order statistics. On the other hand, in the class of point processes, there are a lot of characterizations of homogeneous Poisson processes based on the memoryless property of exponential distribution. The result of Asadi(1999) about characterization of the Gumble bivariate exponential or the bivariate geometric distribution inspired us be interested in investigating some similar results about non-independent bivarite homogeneous Poisson processes.

In this thesis we present some related problems about the renewal processes. More precisely, let $gamma_{t}$ be the residual life at time $t$ of the renewal process $A={A(t),t geq 0}$, $F$ be the common distribution function of the inter-arrival times. Under suitable conditions, we prove that if $Var(gamma_{t})=E^2(gamma_{t})-E(gamma_{t}),forall t=0,1 ho,2 ho,3 ho,... $, then $F$ will be geometrically distributed under the assumption $F$ is discrete. We also discuss the tails of random sums for the renewal process. We prove that the $k$ power of random sum is always new worse than used ($NWU$).

<p>Accurate forecasting is a real problem at many companies and that includes Alfa Laval in Lund. Alfa Laval experiences problems forecasting for future raw material demand. Management is aware that the forecasting methods used today can be improved or replaced by others. A change could lead to better forecasting accuracy and lower errors which means less inventory, shorter cycle times and better customer service at lower costs.</p><p>The purpose of this study is to analyze Alfa Laval’s current forecasting models for demand of raw material used for pressed plates, and then determine if other models are better suited for taking into consideration trends and seasonal variation.</p>

Katholische Universiẗat, Diss.--Eichstätt-Ingolstadt, 2006.

This thesis deals with a model of nonlinearly perturbed continuous-time renewal equation with nonpolynomial perturbations. The characteristics, namely the defect and moments, of the distribution function generating the renewal equation are assumed to have expansions with respect to a non-polynomial asymptotic scale: $\{\varphi_{\nn} (\varepsilon) =\varepsilon^{\nn \cdot \w}, \nn \in \mathbf{N}_0^k\}$  as $\varepsilon \to 0$, where $\mathbf{N}_0$ is the set of non-negative integers, $\mathbf{N}_0^k \equiv \mathbf{N}_0 \times \cdots \times \mathbf{N}_0, 1\leq k &lt;\infty$ with the product being taken $k$ times and $\w$ is a $k$ dimensional parameter vector that satisfies certain properties. For the one-dimensional case, i.e., $k=1$, this model reduces to the model of nonlinearly perturbed renewal equation with polynomial perturbations which is well studied in the literature.  The goal of the present study is to obtain the exponential asymptotics for the solution to the perturbed renewal equation in the form of exponential asymptotic expansions and present possible applications. The thesis is based on three papers which study successively the model stated above. Paper A investigates the two-dimensional case, i.e. where $k=2$. The corresponding asymptotic exponential expansion for the solution to the perturbed renewal equation is given. The asymptotic results are applied to an example of the perturbed risk process, which leads to diffusion approximation type asymptotics for the ruin probability.  Numerical experimental studies on this example of perturbed risk process are conducted in paper B, where Monte Carlo simulation are used to study the accuracy and properties of the asymptotic formulas. Paper C presents the asymptotic results for the more general case where the dimension $k$ satisfies $1\leq k &lt;\infty$, which are applied to the asymptotic analysis of the ruin probability in an example of perturbed risk processes with this general type of non-polynomial perturbations.  All the proofs of the theorems stated in paper C are collected in its supplement: paper D.