<p>This thesis presents Bayesian solutions to inference problems for three types of social network data structures: a single observation of a social network, repeated observations on the same social network, and repeated observations on a social network developing through time.</p><p>A social network is conceived as being a structure consisting of actors and their social interaction with each other. A common conceptualisation of social networks is to let the actors be represented by nodes in a graph with edges between pairs of nodes that are relationally tied to each other according to some definition. Statistical analysis of social networks is to a large extent concerned with modelling of these relational ties, which lends itself to empirical evaluation.</p><p>The first paper deals with a family of statistical models for social networks called exponential random graphs that takes various structural features of the network into account. In general, the likelihood functions of exponential random graphs are only known up to a constant of proportionality. A procedure for performing Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is presented. The algorithm consists of two basic steps, one in which an ordinary Metropolis-Hastings up-dating step is used, and another in which an importance sampling scheme is used to calculate the acceptance probability of the Metropolis-Hastings step.</p><p>In paper number two a method for modelling reports given by actors (or other informants) on their social interaction with others is investigated in a Bayesian framework. The model contains two basic ingredients: the unknown network structure and functions that link this unknown network structure to the reports given by the actors. These functions take the form of probit link functions. An intrinsic problem is that the model is not identified, meaning that there are combinations of values on the unknown structure and the parameters in the probit link functions that are observationally equivalent. Instead of using restrictions for achieving identification, it is proposed that the different observationally equivalent combinations of parameters and unknown structure be investigated a posteriori. Estimation of parameters is carried out using Gibbs sampling with a switching devise that enables transitions between posterior modal regions. The main goal of the procedures is to provide tools for comparisons of different model specifications.</p><p>Papers 3 and 4, propose Bayesian methods for longitudinal social networks. The premise of the models investigated is that overall change in social networks occurs as a consequence of sequences of incremental changes. Models for the evolution of social networks using continuos-time Markov chains are meant to capture these dynamics. Paper 3 presents an MCMC algorithm for exploring the posteriors of parameters for such Markov chains. More specifically, the unobserved evolution of the network in-between observations is explicitly modelled thereby avoiding the need to deal with explicit formulas for the transition probabilities. This enables likelihood based parameter inference in a wider class of network evolution models than has been available before. Paper 4 builds on the proposed inference procedure of Paper 3 and demonstrates how to perform model selection for a class of network evolution models.</p>

State space modeling represents a statistical framework for exponential smoo- thing methods and it is often used in time series modeling. This thesis descri- bes seasonal innovations state space models and focuses on recently suggested TBATS model. This model includes Box-Cox transformation, ARMA model for residuals and trigonometric representation of seasonality and it was designed to handle a broad spectrum of time series with complex types of seasonality inclu- ding multiple seasonality, high frequency of data, non-integer periods of seasonal components, and dual-calendar effects. The estimation of the parameters based on maximum likelihood and trigonometric representation of seasonality greatly reduce computational burden in this model. The universatility of TBATS model is demonstrated by four real data time series.

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O objetivo deste trabalho é comparar as estruturas de vizinhanças espaciais ou matrizes de pesos espaciais da classe de modelos autorregressivos e de médias móveis espaço-temporais (STARMA). O modelo STARMA é empregado para descrever dados de séries temporais espacialmente localizados, ele é caracterizado pela dependência linear defasada tanto no espaço quanto no tempo. Foram realizadas simulações utilizando vários modelos de covariância espaço-temporal para comparar diferentes estruturas de construção da matriz de pesos espaciais com a finalidade de identificar a melhor matriz. As matrizes espaciais com pesos exponenciais apresentaram os melhores desempenhos de ajuste dos modelos STAR; e mostram uma estabilidade em relação à medida de ajuste. Por fim para ilustração, será ajustado um modelo STARMA para um conjunto de dados mensais do índice FIPEZAP de preço imobiliário de venda para apartamentos de dois dormitórios de seis cidades metropolitanas de São Paulo. / The objective of this work is to compare spatial neighborhoods structures, or the same as spatial weights matrices of the class of space-time autoregressive and moving average models STARMA. The STARMA model is used to describe spatially localized time series datas, it is characterized by the linear dependence lagged both in space and time. Simulations were performed using several space-time covariance models to compare different structures of construction of the weight matrix with the purpose of identifying the best matrix. The spatial matrices with exponential weights presented the best adjustment performances of the STAR models ans showed a stability in relation to the adjustment measure. Finally, for illustration, a STARMA model will be adjusted for a set of monthly data of the FIPEZAP real estate price index for two bedroom apartments in six metropolitan cities of São Paulo.

In this thesis we will discuss the well-posedness and long-time dynamics of curved beam and thermoelastic plates. First, we considered the Bresse system with nonlinear damping and forcing terms. For this model we show the Timoshenko system as a singular limit of the Bresse system as the arch curvature l goes to 0 and under suitable assumptions on the nonlinearity we prove the existence of a smooth global attractor with finite fractal dimension and exponential attractors as well. We also compare the Bresse system with the Timoshenko system, in the sense of upper-semicontinuity of their attractors as l &rarr; 0. Second, we study a full von Karman system, this model accounts for vertical and in plane displacements. For this system we add a nonlinear thermal coupling and free boundary conditions. It is shown that the system, without any mechanical dissipation imposed on vertical displacements, admits a global attractor which is also smooth and of finite fractal dimension. / Neste trabalho iremos discutir a existência, unicidade, dependência contínua e a dinâmica a longo prazo das soluções de um sistema de equações que modela a vibração de vigas curvas e um modelo de placas termoelásticas. Primeiro consideramos o modelo de Bresse com dissipação não linear e forças externas. Provamos que o sistema de Timoshenko pode ser obtido como limite do sistema de Bresse quando o arco de curvatura l tende para zero e sob algumas hipóteses, mostramos a existência de um atrator global com dimensão fractal finita. Também comparamos o sistema de Bresse com o sistema de Timoshenko no sentido da semicontinuidade de seus atratores quando o parâmetro l &rarr; 0. Na segunda parte estudamos o sistema de full Von Karmam. Neste modelo adicionamos efeitos térmicos e condições de fronteira do tipo livre. Mostramos que esse problema, sem dissipação mecânica no deslocamento vertical, também possui um atrator global regular com dimensão infinita.

Orientador: Manoel Ferreira Borges Neto / Banca: Antônio Luís Venezuela / Banca: Sandra Regina Monteiro Masalshiene Roveda / Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho ée estabelecer similaridades entre a análise complexa e os quatérnios. Nele é feito um estudo da regularidade de funções quaterniônicas e são estabelecidas as funções exponencial e logarítmica para os quatérnios sendo feito um estudo da hiperpe- riodicidade dessas funções. Outro resultado apresentado é a generalização quaterniônica da fórmula integral de Cauchy um dos principais teoremas da análise complexa. / Abstract: The objective of this work is to establish similarities between the complex analysis and the quaternions. In it is made a study of the regularity of quaternionic functions and are established the exponential and logarithmic functions for the quaternions being made a study of the hiperperiodicity of these functions. Another presented result is the quater- nionic generalization of the Cauchy's integral formula one of the main theorems of the complex analysis. / Mestre

Neste trabalho estudamos existência, multiplicidade e não existência de soluções não triviais para o seguinte problema elíptico: { - \'DELTA\' = f(x, u), em \'OMEGA\' u = 0, sobre \'\\PARTIAL\' \'OMEGA\', onde \'OMEGA\' é um conjunto limitado de \'R POT. 2\' com fronteira suave e a função f possui crescimento exponencial. Para a existência de soluções são aplicados métodos variacionais combinados com as desigualdades de Trudinger-Moser. O resultado de não-existência é restrito ao caso de soluções radiais positivas e \'OMEGA\' = \'B IND.1\'(0). A prova usa técnicas de equações diferenciais ordinárias / In this work we study the existence, multiplicity and non-existence of non-trivial solutions to the following elliptic problem: { - \'DELTA\' u = f(x; u); in \'OMEGA\', ; u = 0; on \'\\PARTIAL\' \'OMEGA\' where \"OMEGA\' is a bounded and smooth domain in \'R POT. 2\' and f possesses exponential growth. The existence results are proved by using variational methods and the Trudinger- Moser inequalities. The non-existence result is restricted to the case of positive radial solutions and \'OMEGA\' = \'B IND. 1\'(0). The proof uses techniques of the theory of ordinary differential equations.

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Esta pesquisa teve por objetivo verificar como é que o aluno consegue por si próprio manipular os recursos, tais como gráficos disponibilizados pelo software GeoGebra, para auxiliar nas práticas diárias de sala de aula, mais especificamente no que tange a construir a conexão entre as progressões aritméticas e as funções afins, bem como entre as progressões geométricas e as funções exponenciais. Este software possibilita fazer análises a partir de diferentes registros tais como: gráficos, tabelas e registros algébricos, seguindo a teoria dos registros semióticos de Duval. Como metodologia, desenvolvemos roteiros de atividades com duas turmas do 2º ano do Ensino Médio do Colégio Estadual Visconde de Bom Retiro. Os alunos foram convidados a construir, verificar e interpretar seus próprios resultados, refletindo e analisando estratégias para responder à questão: Quais relações os alunos conseguem evidenciar, através da comparação entre gráficos (obtidos com o GeoGebra) de funções afins e exponenciais, com progressões aritméticas e geométricas, respectivamente? Ao final da pesquisa, os registros coletados possibilitaram a validação qualitativa da proposta, mostrando que os alunos avançaram na compreensão dos conteúdos abordados. / The aim of this research was to verify how the student can himself manipulate the resources, such as plots made available by the GeoGebra software, to aid in the daily classroom practices, specifically in the construction of the connection between arithmetic progressions and linear functions, as well as between geometric progressions and exponential functions. This software makes possible to analyze from different registers such as: plots, tables and algebraic records, following the theory of semiotic records of Duval. Our methodology consisted in developing activity scripts with students of two classes of the 2nd year of the High School of Visconde de Bom Retiro State College. More specifically, they were asked to build, verify and interpret their own results, speculating and analyzing strategies to answer the question: What relations are the students able to highlight through comparing plots (obtained with GeoGebra) of linear and exponential functions, with arithmetic progressions and geometric, respectively? At the end of the research, the collected records made possible the qualitative validation of the proposal, showing that the students improved their understanding of the focused contents.