This thesis investigates environmental and energy policies that Turkey needs to adopt on its way to a sustainable development path. A comparative-static, multi-sectoral CGE model, TurkMod, is developed in order to analyze the potential scenarios available for the Turkish economy to attain a low-carbon society with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports. Domestic energy demand has significantly increased in Turkey over the past decades and this has put a lot of pressure on policy-makers as the economy greatly depends on imports of natural gas and oil as far as current energy consumption is concerned. The CGE model in this study is based on a 2012 energy-disaggregated Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) constructed as a part of this thesis as well. The energy-disaggregated SAM incorporates 18 sectors for production activities, 11 products as commodities, 2 factors of production as labor and capital, 3 institutional accounts as firms, households, and the government, a separate account for taxes on commodities, taxes on production and taxes on different types of factor use, a capital account, and finally the rest of the world (ROW) account. Disaggregating the electricity sector to include 8 different types of power generating sectors (5 of which are renewable energy sources) enables electric power substitution in the model. The energy-disaggregated SAM is further linked with satellite accounts which include data on derived energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.The macroeconomic and environmental impacts of four distinct sets of scenarios are analyzed with respect to the baseline scenario. The first scenario simulates a 30% increase in energy efficiency in the production sectors and the residential sector and evidence is found for reaching the 21% GHG mitigation target set in Turkey’s pledge for Paris Agreement compliance. The second set of scenarios is the inclusion of a medium-level and high-level carbon tax rates for coal, oil and natural gas. The carbon tax scenarios produce significant effects on both emission reduction targets and substituting fossil fuel technologies with cleaner energy types. The third scenario investigates the sectoral and welfare impacts of providing subsidies for renewable energy sources. Turkey has already adopted a scheme where renewable energies are beings subsidized and promoted, however, this policy does not produce the necessary transformation for the Turkish society when utilized solely on its own. The fourth scenario estimates the effects of changes in world prices of energy on the Turkish economy. A 20% increase in world energy prices, i.e. oil, natural gas, and coal, induces substantial changes in the breakdown of TPES and the power-generating sector, but this scenario is a rather hypothetical one as it cannot be suggested as a viable policy option. All in all, these potential energy scenarios have significant and influential impacts on the Turkish economy and its environment. Notwithstanding, a carbon tax policy proves to be the most viable scenario which leads to reduced energy intensities in all sectors, a 21% GHG emissions abatement, and a transformation of the energy sector towards having a low-carbon content along with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Chapter 1 introduces some of the issues which are addressed in the other chapters of this dissertation. These topics include: (1) the general equilibrium incentives in the provision of public education, (2) human capital production functions in economic modeling, (3) how public education spending may impact income inequality -- both positively and negatively, (4) the effect on public education spending of changes in the college wage premium, and (5) the overall efficiency of government-supplied capital. Chapter 2 develops a public education system in which voters face general equilibrium incentives to pay taxes for education. Middle-aged voters can increase their returns to saving by increasing the aggregate amount of human capital in the economy. I find that if students differ by their ability to increase their human capital levels through schooling, then the public education policy will invest more education funds in more productive students; this perpetuates income inequality. Also, the greater the discount rate for consumption and the elasticity of education funds in the human capital production function, the more likely it is that a public system provides greater growth in the steady state than a private system. Chapter 3 studies the allocation of government spending between general tuition subsidies for college students and need-based aid which is directed solely towards students from low-income households. The way to maximize the number of students may be to provide some need-based aid. I find that government provides more aid directed to low-income students if need-based tuition subsidies are provided rather than student loan subsidies. I also look at the effects of changes in parameters, such as the cost of education and the college wage premium, on the policies. Chapter 4 investigates the returns to aggregate factors of production when labor is disaggregated by education level. I find that a model in which the error term is assumed to be state-wise heteroscedastic and autocorrelated does a better job of approximating the pattern of wages for the different education groups than other models (pooled OLS or random and fixed effects). In addition, this model suggests a significant positive elasticity for public capital. / Ph. D.

No description available.

Thesis (Ph.D. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

Thesis (M.Com. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

South Africa's North West Province is dependent on gold and platinum exports for its economic growth and employment. Whether this specialisation is optimal from an economic growth, employment creation and welfare point of view, or whether greater export diversification should be encouraged, can most appropriately be evaluated using a general equilibrium framework. Moreover, the answer of whether such specialisation or rather diversification is appropriate may differ depending on the spatial level of analysis that is taken. For instance, export diversification or specialisation on a national level might differ from export diversification or specialisation on sub-national (e.g. provincial) level. A general equilibrium framework is most appropriate for investigating the potential differences between these levels as it takes into consideration a region's economic structure, and the economy-wide linkages between demand, supply, production structure and income distribution. In this light this thesis proposes a regional applied general equilibrium (RAGE) model for the North West Province to address these issues. The question asked is, how can a RAGE model be formulated and implemented for the North West Province of South Africa in order to study the differential impacts of greater export specialisation versus greater export diversification? In answering this question this thesis provides policy makers at regional/provincial level with access to a potentially useful modelling tool, to analyse regional economic issues; it contributes to better understanding the spatial concentration and spatial dynamics of economic activity in the North West Province; and contributes toward the practical policy debate in South Africa. This thesis reviews the literature on export diversification and specialisation, by investigating the extent of export diversification and specialisation in the North West Province over the period 1995-2006 and its relationship to GDP per capita, and using a RAGE model to investigate the economy-wide impacts of greater export diversification versus greater export speciaRsation. These results are contrasted by investigating the economy-wide impacts of greater export diversification versus greater export specialisation on the national level, using a country-wide applied general equilibrium (AGE) model for South Africa. It is found that greater export diversification results in a more substantial increase in exports (of between 0.95 and 1.73 per cent) than in the case of greater export specialisation. In fact it was found that if the North West Province were to specialise in mining exports, such exports would need to grow or increase from the base year by approximately 78 per cent (with no increase in the export demand for other sectors) to result in the same level of growth of total export volumes as is found under export diversification. Avenues for further research are identified. These are a need for more research on elasticities and parameters at regional level, an expansion of the transport services sector in the model, incorporating Tourism Satellite Accounts, BEE and SMME aspects into the model, etc. In conclusion, the thesis implemented the first provincial regional applied general equilibrium model for South Africa, and illustrated that it can make an important contribution to the policy debate on a provincial level in South Africa. The construction of Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) for all of South Africa's provinces, and the maintenance of these provincial databases could therefore make further contributions to the quantitative assessment of policy options facing government on both the national and provincial level. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

Thesis (M.Com. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

Thesis (M.Com. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

South Africa's North West Province is dependent on gold and platinum exports for its economic growth and employment. Whether this specialisation is optimal from an economic growth, employment creation and welfare point of view, or whether greater export diversification should be encouraged, can most appropriately be evaluated using a general equilibrium framework. Moreover, the answer of whether such specialisation or rather diversification is appropriate may differ depending on the spatial level of analysis that is taken. For instance, export diversification or specialisation on a national level might differ from export diversification or specialisation on sub-national (e.g. provincial) level. A general equilibrium framework is most appropriate for investigating the potential differences between these levels as it takes into consideration a region's economic structure, and the economy-wide linkages between demand, supply, production structure and income distribution. In this light this thesis proposes a regional applied general equilibrium (RAGE) model for the North West Province to address these issues. The question asked is, how can a RAGE model be formulated and implemented for the North West Province of South Africa in order to study the differential impacts of greater export specialisation versus greater export diversification? In answering this question this thesis provides policy makers at regional/provincial level with access to a potentially useful modelling tool, to analyse regional economic issues; it contributes to better understanding the spatial concentration and spatial dynamics of economic activity in the North West Province; and contributes toward the practical policy debate in South Africa. This thesis reviews the literature on export diversification and specialisation, by investigating the extent of export diversification and specialisation in the North West Province over the period 1995-2006 and its relationship to GDP per capita, and using a RAGE model to investigate the economy-wide impacts of greater export diversification versus greater export speciaRsation. These results are contrasted by investigating the economy-wide impacts of greater export diversification versus greater export specialisation on the national level, using a country-wide applied general equilibrium (AGE) model for South Africa. It is found that greater export diversification results in a more substantial increase in exports (of between 0.95 and 1.73 per cent) than in the case of greater export specialisation. In fact it was found that if the North West Province were to specialise in mining exports, such exports would need to grow or increase from the base year by approximately 78 per cent (with no increase in the export demand for other sectors) to result in the same level of growth of total export volumes as is found under export diversification. Avenues for further research are identified. These are a need for more research on elasticities and parameters at regional level, an expansion of the transport services sector in the model, incorporating Tourism Satellite Accounts, BEE and SMME aspects into the model, etc. In conclusion, the thesis implemented the first provincial regional applied general equilibrium model for South Africa, and illustrated that it can make an important contribution to the policy debate on a provincial level in South Africa. The construction of Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) for all of South Africa's provinces, and the maintenance of these provincial databases could therefore make further contributions to the quantitative assessment of policy options facing government on both the national and provincial level. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

This D.Phil. dissertation investigates the areas in financial stability. The three comprising essays have a common ground: money, default and collateral in the theory of finance. Chapter Two (co-authored with Prof. Dimitrios Tsomocos), which is titled “A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model to Analyse Financial Stability”, aims to refine and improve existing DSGE models in two ways. First, it incorporates hitherto neglected components such as endogenous default, money via cash-in-advance constraints and heterogeneous banking sectors. Thus, in contrast to the New Keynesian approach, here it is liquidity and default that are the driving forces behind our results. Second, in focusing on both monetary policy and fiscal policy, it elucidates how interactions between the two policy arenas affect macroeconomic fluctuations, particularly in regard to financial stability. Through these refinements, we put forward the policy response necessary to achieve a stable financial system using a calibrated DSGE model. Chapter Three, entitled “Monetary Policy in a Time of Natural Disaster”, investigates the appropriate monetary policy response to natural disasters in the DSGE framework. I develop a realistic model for financial turmoil by evaluating the impact of natural disasters on credit markets by including financial frictions such as endogenous default and liquidity constraints. I show that the standard Taylor rule (1993) response in models with money and default is to increase the nominal interest rate after a disaster shock. However, in fact an inflation-targeting policy (i.e. monetary contraction) is not compatible with mitigating financial fragility in the highly indebted economy with near-zero interest rate, and arguably the `Taylor Principle' does not hold in such as economy (e.g. Japan in 2011). Nevertheless, expansionary monetary policy induces a debt overhang even further. Chapter Four, “Collateral, Default and Asset Prices”, uses a DSGE framework to put forward a model of how agents adjust their asset holdings in response to deflationary shocks. By introducing collateral constraints in the default decision, I capture some original features of the early debt-deflation literature, such as distress selling and instability. The estimated model successfully delivers a procyclical feedback loop for the default channel, which consists of foreclosure, high borrowing costs, inefficient capital allocation, and a further decrease in the output level. I investigated recessionary shocks inducing deflation in commodity and/or asset prices for monetary policy experiments. This, therefore, underlines the importance of monetary policy in restoring financial stability during a deflationary period.