Digitized by Kansas Correctional Industries

This dissertation consists of three essays studying the dynamic and strategic interactions of oligopolistic firms in developing countries using dynamic structural models. We focus on industries which have positive social benefits for the communities in which they operate, namely radio and banking. We use the estimated models to simulate counterfactual policies aimed at improving access for individuals in underserved areas. The first essay studies the social impacts of the liberalization of the radio broadcasting sector in Ghana. I analyze how the regulator affects commercial stations' decisions to enter and the resulting effects of coverage spillovers in rural areas. I exploit random variation in radio coverage caused by coverage spilling through gaps in mountainous areas and use this to estimate the effects of coverage on malaria incidence and development. I then estimate a dynamic structural entry model for commercial stations. In counterfactual simulations, I find that the allowance of more powerful transmitters is particularly effective in delivering the social benefits of radio to new communities. The second essay (joint with Calixte Ahokossi) studies voter turnout and regulatory inefficiency in the radio broadcasting market in Benin. We find an inverted-U relationship between the number of radio stations and voter turnout. We estimate a dynamic structural model for radio stations, taking into account the regulatory inefficiency in the market. Counterfactual simulations suggest that either removing the regulatory inefficiency or introducing targeted entry subsidies can spur entry in areas without radio stations, which would increase voter turnout in these areas. The third essay (joint with Marc Rysman and Robert M. Townsend) studies the banking sector in Thailand. Here, we argue that the effect of financial crises on bank branch location choices provides an unexplored channel by which crises affect access to credit. We estimate a dynamic structural model of oligopolistic location choice, allowing for complementarity in payoffs for bank branches in nearby locations, as well as competitive effects between rival banks. Using this model, we can predict counterfactual expansions of the bank branch network under policies focused on opening rural bank branches, or in the absence of the 1997 financial crisis.

This dissertation analyzes the men's razor market to examine whether a monopolist can implement price discrimination for the complementary goods. I estimate a demand system for razors using the random coefficient logit model with market level sales data from the Nielsen Store Scanner dataset and individual demographic data from the March CPS. The estimated parameters are used to construct price-cost markups. By comparing the markups of different products, I find evidence that Gillette uses a two-part tariff strategy. This conclusion can be generalized as that of a monopolist setting the prices of tie-in products consistent with a two-part tariff.

<p>My dissertation focuses on employing microeconomic techniques to study markets and questions that are important and complex, and also have potential policy implications. Two of my chapters analyze the health industry with an emphasis on hospitals, patient welfare, and regulation. The remaining chapter focuses on the housing market in Los Angeles and explores real estate flipping.</p><p>The second chapter of my dissertation studies the impact of state level regulations on hospital bed capacity decisions. The regulations are intended to decrease hospital investments without diminishing patient access. I find that the regulation decreases total hospital investment in bed capacity as expected. When running simulations to estimate how hospitals would behave differently were the regulatory policy changed, I find that total patient utility is negatively affected by the presence of the regulation as many patients get turned away from their preferred hospital due to overcrowding. This analysis has important policy implications as it suggests that the regulation has been ineffective in ensuring that patient welfare was unharmed by the restrictions.</p><p>The third chapter is based on joint research with Patrick Bayer and James W. Roberts and studies the housing market in the Los Angeles metropolitan area from 1988 to 2009. Using novel data, I identify which housing transactions involve flippers who aim not to live in the house, but rather to quickly resell it for financial gain. I find that flipper behavior varies based on how frequently I observe the individual engage in such behavior. Experienced flippers, who are observed to flip many houses in the data, target homes being sold at below market value and earn their returns from buying them at a discount. Their effect on long term prices in the neighborhood is negligable. Inexperienced flippers who are less active, seek to earn their profits by timing the market and are more active when house prices were rapidly appreciating from 1999 to 2005. Their activity increases housing prices in the neighborhood in the short term, but decreases them in the long term. Such results are consistent with the claim that real estate flipping contributed to the housing bubble.</p><p>The fourth chapter of my dissertation again focuses on the hospital industry and looks at the question of how patient composition changes as a hospital becomes busier and has to turn patients away. I develop a theoretical model which predicts that hospitals are more likely to turn away less profitable patients. As a result, when a hospital becomes more full and therefore is more likely to have to turn patients away, its composition of patients will change and become more profitable on the whole. I test this theory by empirically analyzing the effect of hospital congestion on the composition of hospital patients using hospital discharge data. The findings are consistent with my theoretical model as when hospitals become more crowded, the fraction of uninsured patients and mental health patients (who are typically not profitable to a hospital) decreases. This result suggests that hospitals are more likely to turn away unprofitable patients while continuing to admit more profitable patients.</p> / Dissertation

This paper examines the underlying drivers of MLB franchise value. Using panel data for MLB teams from 2000-2010, I find that a team’s ballpark and metro-area market are significant determinants, yet revenues truly drive value. Further, I find that incremental increases in winning percentage by a particular team has an insignificant effect on total revenues and has no marginal impact on the value of the team, particularly if the team recognizes consistent revenue streams every year. Finally, I show that the modern sabermetric approach to player management negatively impacts firm value, suggesting that although small market teams have been successful using this strategy to increase their on-field performance, its use in isolation is not financially beneficial to the organization in the long run.

The nature of electrical power requires specific infrastructure in order to operate adequately. Currently, the United States electricity grid contains a number of bottlenecking inefficiencies that arise from the aging infrastructure of the system. This paper examines the current state of the United States electricity grid, how potential changes in weather variables can affect the electricity consumption of residential consumers, and how implementation of Smart Grid technology can potentially mitigate these issues. It is determined through regression analysis that each weather variable that was tested proves significant for at least one of the consumers compared. This indicates that there is an enormous magnitude of individual variables that factor into residential electricity consumption and that more efficient and integrated electricity practices are necessary to optimize efficiency.

Frank M. Bass developed the Bass Diffusion Model to predict how innovative consumer durable products diffuse through consumer markets. This thesis will use data from 1999-2011 to examine the applicability of the Bass Diffusion Model to the introduction of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) in the automobile market. The findings in this thesis indicate the Bass Diffusion Model fit the diffusion pattern exhibited by AFVs well, but failed to accurately forecast diffusion patterns outside a given range of data. This thesis investigates potential reasons for the inaccurate 'Out of Sample Forecast', and gives recommendations for directions of future research on AFV diffusion.

No description available.

Zugl.: Vallendar, Wiss. Hochsch. für Unternehmensführung, Diss., 2007.

Title from PDF of title page (University of Missouri--Columbia, viewed on Feb 17, 2010). The entire thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file; a non-technical public abstract appears in the public.pdf file. Dissertation advisor: Dr. Michael E. Sykuta. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.