Dada a crescente importância do relacionamento empresa-cliente e a pluralidade de modelos que discutam os elementos e resultados desse tipo de atividade, esta pesquisa buscou entender melhor a atividade de marketing de relacionamento e seus resultados por meio da análise de como os profissionais dessa área enxergam as relações entre os constructos relevantes, a fim de buscar desenvolver um modelo que expresse mais claramente como os profissionais da área entendem que os resultados de marketing de relacionamento são alcançados. O tema é tratado com base em uma revisão teórica que explora o conceito de marketing de relacionamento e seus principais elementos, o processo de modelagem, e o processo de mapeamento cognitivo. A partir da revisão teórica, foram listados onze constructos de marketing de relacionamento, que foram, então, analisados por 35 profissionais da área. Assim foram traçados 35 mapas cognitivos individuais que apontam como cada entrevistado entende as interações entre os elementos do marketing de relacionamento. Com base nas visões de cada indivíduo, foi traçado um mapa cognitivo agregado que aponta o entendimento médio dos entrevistados. A análise desse mapa permitiu identificar como, de acordo com a visão dos profissionais pesquisados, os elementos de marketing de relacionamento se influenciam mutuamente e quais elementos têm maior ou menor impacto no resultado final (aqui considerado como o custumer lifetime value - CLV). Por fim, foi feita análise de cluster para identificar a possível existência de algum tipo de agrupamento de respostas. Nenhum padrão significativo foi encontrado / Given the growing importance of activities related to the relationship between company and client, and the plurality of models to discuss the elements and results of this type of activity, better understanding the relationship marketing activity and it\'s results is important, in order to seek to develop a model that express more clearly how relationship marketing results are achieved. The theme is treated from a theoretical review based on the concept of relationship marketing and its key elements, the modeling process, and the process of cognitive mapping. Eleven contructos of relationship were listed from the theoretical review, and were then analyzed by 35 marketing professionals. Thus 35 individual maps which indicate how each respondent understands the interactions between the elements of relationship marketing have been traced. Based on the views of each individual, was plotted an aggregate map that shows the average understanding of the respondents. The analysis of this map has allowed us to identify, in accordance with the vision of

Cette thèse traite de la compréhension de l’engagement client dans un contexte multicanal. Le flot de littérature sur le marketing multicanal présente plusieurs lacunes théoriques et managériales, telles que les impacts dynamiques de l’adoption multicanal sur la valeur client, la quantification de la rentabilité des campagnes marketing, le comportement multicanal à travers les marques, etc. (Neslin et al. 2014; Neslin and Shankar 2009). Cette thèse a pour but d’éclairer les impacts dynamiques de l’engagement client sur la valeur client et les revenus de l’entreprise dans un contexte multicanal. Le Chapitre 1 aborde les « Impacts dynamiques du canal d’acquisition et de l’adoption multicanal sur la valeur vie client ». Au Chapitre 2, « antécédents et conséquences de l’utilisation des codes promotionnels », nous étudions le processus d’utilisation des codes promotionnels et la rentabilité de telles campagnes. Au Chapitre 3, « Modéliser les impacts de l’achat multicanal sur le choix de marque », nous étudions la question du comportement en termes de choix d’une marque dans un environnement multicanal. Dans l’ensemble, cette thèse étudie divers engagements client et leurs effets sur la valeur client et les revenus de l’entreprise. Du point de vue théorique, c’est une contribution aux publications sur le marketing dans les domaines du marketing multicanal, de la valeur vie client, des promotions et des choix de marques. Elle propose une approche exhaustive de l’engagement client et de la valeur client dans un contexte multicanal. Dans une optique de gestion, cette étude propose aux entreprises des méthodologies novatrices pour gérer leur clientèle au niveau individuel, ainsi que de nouveaux modèles pour évaluer les activités de marketing multicanal / This dissertation aims to investigate the dynamic impacts of customer engagement on customer value and firm revenues in a multichannel context. I address this research question in three chapters. In chapter 1, we propose a hidden Markov model to understand the dynamic effects of acquisition channel and multichannel adoption on the customer-firm relationship and to estimate the customer lifetime value. The results show that multichannel customers acquired from offline channels exhibit higher short-term value than multichannel customers acquired from online channels. In contrast, multichannel customers acquired from online channels are more likely to stay in a higher value state in the long run. In the long run, multichannel customers acquired from offline channels are more valuable than other customers. Chapter 2 focuses on promo code redemption behaviors. We conduct the research using a field experiment. We identify the determinants of opening, clicking the email and the final redemption behavior using a simultaneous multiple equation probit model. In our setting, we find that 11% of the profitability of the promo code campaign stems from eligible purchases without redemption. By targeting those customer segments that are more likely to make eligible purchases without redemption, the average profitability increases. In Chapter 3, we investigate how multichannel behavior impacts brand choice in a grocery setting. Our research develops a hierarchal Bayesian brand choice decision model to understand how multichannel adoption impacts brand choice decision, brand size-of-wallet, and brand share-of-wallet. Our results show that brand choice probability increases in general after consumers become multichannel. We also find that consumers increase both the size-of-wallet and share-of-wallet for the brand which they first purchase online, yet do not necessarily decrease the share-of-wallet for other brands.

Dada a crescente importância do relacionamento empresa-cliente e a pluralidade de modelos que discutam os elementos e resultados desse tipo de atividade, esta pesquisa buscou entender melhor a atividade de marketing de relacionamento e seus resultados por meio da análise de como os profissionais dessa área enxergam as relações entre os constructos relevantes, a fim de buscar desenvolver um modelo que expresse mais claramente como os profissionais da área entendem que os resultados de marketing de relacionamento são alcançados. O tema é tratado com base em uma revisão teórica que explora o conceito de marketing de relacionamento e seus principais elementos, o processo de modelagem, e o processo de mapeamento cognitivo. A partir da revisão teórica, foram listados onze constructos de marketing de relacionamento, que foram, então, analisados por 35 profissionais da área. Assim foram traçados 35 mapas cognitivos individuais que apontam como cada entrevistado entende as interações entre os elementos do marketing de relacionamento. Com base nas visões de cada indivíduo, foi traçado um mapa cognitivo agregado que aponta o entendimento médio dos entrevistados. A análise desse mapa permitiu identificar como, de acordo com a visão dos profissionais pesquisados, os elementos de marketing de relacionamento se influenciam mutuamente e quais elementos têm maior ou menor impacto no resultado final (aqui considerado como o custumer lifetime value - CLV). Por fim, foi feita análise de cluster para identificar a possível existência de algum tipo de agrupamento de respostas. Nenhum padrão significativo foi encontrado / Given the growing importance of activities related to the relationship between company and client, and the plurality of models to discuss the elements and results of this type of activity, better understanding the relationship marketing activity and it\'s results is important, in order to seek to develop a model that express more clearly how relationship marketing results are achieved. The theme is treated from a theoretical review based on the concept of relationship marketing and its key elements, the modeling process, and the process of cognitive mapping. Eleven contructos of relationship were listed from the theoretical review, and were then analyzed by 35 marketing professionals. Thus 35 individual maps which indicate how each respondent understands the interactions between the elements of relationship marketing have been traced. Based on the views of each individual, was plotted an aggregate map that shows the average understanding of the respondents. The analysis of this map has allowed us to identify, in accordance with the vision of

Submitted by Débora Cabral Soares Ribeiro (d.c.soares@uol.com.br) on 2017-01-16T00:56:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Biblioteca_Debora_Ribeiro.pdf: 3530018 bytes, checksum: aa769311a68fa5ddac2f33dc9697d7ea (MD5) / Rejected by Fabiana da Silva Segura (fabiana.segura@fgv.br), reason: Boa Tarde, Prezada Débora O titulo do trabalho está diferente do título que foi aprovado em ATA, seu orientador deverá encaminhar e-mail para o mestradoprofissional@fgv.br mencionando o novo título, somente após o envio do e-mail você poderá postar novamente A ordem das páginas são: Capa - Contra Capa, ficha catalográfica e folha de assinaturas Após o envio do e-mail do seu orientador e a correção da ordem dessas primeiras páginas submeter novamente o trabalho on 2017-01-16T15:18:29Z (GMT) / Submitted by Débora Cabral Soares Ribeiro (d.c.soares@uol.com.br) on 2017-01-18T18:04:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Biblioteca_Debora_Ribeiro.pdf: 3529746 bytes, checksum: 6177b546ae6848a69923478fbe385136 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Fabiana da Silva Segura (fabiana.segura@fgv.br) on 2017-01-18T18:11:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Biblioteca_Debora_Ribeiro.pdf: 3529746 bytes, checksum: 6177b546ae6848a69923478fbe385136 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-01-19T11:42:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Biblioteca_Debora_Ribeiro.pdf: 3529746 bytes, checksum: 6177b546ae6848a69923478fbe385136 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-20 / The customer lifetime value (CLV) allows to measure the present value of the future cash flows in the relationship of a company with its client. The CLV calculation includes retention and acquisitions analysis, retention and acquisitions expenses, margin obtained by the company with the customer, media expenses, and other investments made by the company at the customer. Several applications have been proposed for CLV, ranging from companies in business-tobusiness and business markets to consumer companies. In addition, there are studies that use the CLV assumptions to measure the value of the sales agent. In the context of direct selling, the direct seller / consultant has an essential role for the business, since in addition to selling, he is also a consumer, using for his own consumption. Usually the direct seller works for more than one brand. Withholding is a challenge because in addition to losing a customer, you may be losing a seller to competing companies. Direct sales companies make high retention expenses with high promotional incentives. Thus, there are opportunities for the application of CLV in direct sales, contributing to the targeting of these incentives in order to maintain the profitability of the business. This project addresses the CLV metrics, specifically applied to analyze the value of this profile of agent that at the same time is a customer and sales representative: the consultant of direct selling products, more specifically in the personal hygiene, perfumery and (HPPC) in Brazil, given the importance of direct sales to HPPC. This question is relevant since, when the customer value (CLV) is identified, it is possible, for example, to determine the investment allowed, increasing or limiting, according to the expected return. The objective of this work is to find the value of the consultant. In order to achieve this objective, the data of 19827 consultants were analyzed, evaluating cadastral, transactional information, shopping baskets and response to stimuli, considered a period of 28 historical cycles, equivalent to just over 1.5 years. The analysis consisted in evaluating the profitability of this agent in a future period equivalent to 6 cycles, about 4 months, from the probability of this consultant being active in each one of the periods. It is possible to identify groups of consultants who may receive different investments, according to the profitability range of each group. / O valor do cliente no tempo, ou customer lifetime value (CLV) permite mensurar o valor presente dos fluxos de caixa futuro no relacionamento de uma empresa com seu cliente. O cálculo do CLV compreende análise de retenção, gastos em retenção, análise da aquisição, gastos em aquisição, margem obtida pela empresa com o cliente, gastos em mídias, e outros investimentos feitos pela empresa no cliente. Diversas aplicações têm sido propostas para o CLV, desde empresas em mercados empresariais business-to-business até empresas de consumo. Inclusive, há estudos que utilizam as premissas do CLV para mensurar o valor do agente de vendas. No contexto da venda direta, o revendedor possui um papel essencial para o negócio, uma vez que além de vender, ele também é consumidor, utilizando para consumo próprio. Normalmente o revendedor atua para mais de uma marca. A retenção é um desafio pois além de perder um cliente, pode estar perdendo um vendedor para empresas concorrentes. As empresas de vendas diretas fazem elevados gastos de retenção, com elevados incentivos promocionais. Assim, há oportunidades para aplicação do CLV na venda direta, contribuindo para o direcionamento desses incentivos de forma a manter a lucratividade do negócio. Este projeto aborda a métrica do CLV, especificamente, aplicado para analisar o valor deste perfil de agente que ao mesmo tempo é cliente e representante de vendas: o consultor/revendedor de produtos de venda direta, mais especificamente no mercado de higiene pessoal, perfumaria e cosméticos (HPPC) no Brasil, dada a importância da venda direta para o HPPC. Esta questão é relevante uma vez que ao ser identificado o valor do cliente (CLV) é possível, por exemplo, determinar o investimento permitido, aumentando ou limitando, de acordo com o retorno esperado. O objetivo deste trabalho é encontrar o valor do consultor. Para atingir este objetivo foram analisados os dados de 19827 consultores, avaliando informações cadastrais, transacionais, cestas de compra e resposta à estímulos, considerado um período de 28 ciclos históricos, o equivalente a pouco mais de 1 ano e meio. A análise consistiu em avaliar a lucratividade deste agente em um período futuro equivalente a 6 ciclos, cerca de 4 meses, a partir da probabilidade deste consultor ser ativo em cada um dos períodos. Sendo possível identificar grupos de consultores que poderão receber investimentos distintos, de acordo com a faixa de lucratividade de cada grupo.

Customer lifetime value models (CLTV) are a critical component of customer relationship management strategies. Over time, numerous approaches have been used to estimate the lifetime value (LTV) of a customer or segment of customers to make appropriate decisions on how to distribute marketing dollars and make other customer- related business decisions. In recent years, the development of lower cost data warehousing strategies and the ease with which customer data is captured has increased the volume of data available to firms to utilize in such models. This is, in part, a result of the rise in use of the Internet to interact with customers. Even with the additional data available from Internet interactions, much of the current research in this field relies on membership, subscription based, or contract term data, with little, if any research addressing today's multi-channel retail environment. The robustness of data available for use in application to customer lifetime value models is another result coming from the combination of increased volume of data available, along with advances in the fields of data warehousing and data mining techniques. Existing statistical models for predicting LTV have limitations. Recent advances in machine learning techniques have allowed researchers to apply these techniques to problems similar to customer lifetime value estimation. These techniques can be applied to LTV models. This dissertation develops and evaluates methods for estimating LTV in a multi-channel retail environment. It builds on existing models and introduces supervised learning methods, specifically feed-forward neural networks and regression trees into the prediction models to develop and evaluate new methods for LTV modeling in multi-channel retail environments. The new models proposed by this dissertation present an easier-to-implement solution to predicting churn and the future purchase value of a customer, which are the two key elements of LTV models. These elements provide the multi-channel retail firm with data comparable in customer relationship management utility to LTV data used by organizations whose customer value is rooted in membership, subscription, or contract term data.

Traditionally, marketers have assumed that investing in the quality of relationships with customers would generate superior profitability to the selling firm. The assumption is that coordination and collaboration between buyer and seller create value for both firms by reducing costs and expanding revenue opportunities. However, such value creation mechanism does not work every time. Closer relationships require customer specific investments and a higher level of service that may create more cost to the seller than the potential gain in revenue, negatively impacting profitability of the selling firm. This research explores the effect of buyer-seller relationship quality on value creation for the selling firm, emphasizing the understanding of costs associated with serving the relationship. Two studies were conducted: Study 1 qualitatively examines the cost associated with serving customers and estimates actual cost-to-serve for individual customers. Study 2 measures the quality of customer relationships, past customer profitability and customer lifetime value for each customer relationship in the proposed sample. Finally, the effect of RQ on customer lifetime value is evaluated. Results suggest that investing in customer relationships have an effect on the drivers of customer cost and profitability. However, the net effect on customer value is not as clear as it depends on the trade offs of the different drivers of cost and profit.

Customer is one of the most important profit resources for a firm. It is increasingly apparent that management will make a decision by customer value. This research focuses on the most critical aspect of a firm: customer lifetime value. It is used to valuing customer lifetime value by discount cash flow approach. This research uses the real option approach (ROA) and connects the concept of customer lifetime value in marketing to build a new valuation model. Real option approach is a new method for estimating the value. It resolves some disadvantage which traditional financial models such as discount cash flow approach can not value the managerial flexibility. In practice, management has many options. These options provide flexibility that adds to the value of customers. The customer investment (e.g., service and advertising) can be deferred at the design phase and under uncertainty, it can be expanded or extended if it does better than expected, or abandoned if it gets worse. There are various types of options that are related to valuing customers, such as deferral, abandonment, expansion, and contraction of investment. This research provides good solution to value customer lifetime value by using real option approach and uses bank wealth management programs as practice evidence. This research builds a fitness model to value managerial flexibility. This research finds out that the domestic banks original set up the VIP migration boundary according to American experience are unreasonable and should be adjusted. Besides, when domestic banks set up the VIP migration boundary, the most important factor they should consider is deposit growth rate instead American experience. Finally, the practice evidence of the influence the expected factors on VIP migration boundary confirms with this research¡¦s expectation.

An expected boom of local travel market is rising, as well as the stronger requirement of diversified travel information/resource services, when the government policy of the strait is improving and the constraints for the tourists from Mainland China will be official released. Some of the travel information/resources and the related behavior of end user on internet have been dramatically influenced by Web 2.0 concept, the service encounter on web has been substituted by the voluntary participation/sharing gradually. Hence, this research will study and measure the relationships and influences of travel information among information transmission and interaction of service, customer satisfaction,trust, and customer lifetime value which based on Web 2.0 technology for local commercial travel blogs. An online questionnaire survey has been applied for the users of local commercial travel blogs, and 635 effective samples have been received. The SEM(structural equation modeling) is adopted for analyze the collected datums with package software SPSS and AMOS for testing the path relationship of variables, parameter estimation and goodness of fit for our model. This research identified that direct relationship between technology infusion in service encounter and perceived service quality but customer satisfaction, nevertheless, the customer satisfaction by perceived service quality can not be affected directly by technology infusion in service encounter. Further, the perceived service quality related to customer satisfaction so as to trust. And, the technology infusion in service encounter can affect customer lifetime value by perceived service quality, customer satisfaction and trust indirectly.

While the volume of research on corporate event sponsorships as a marketing tool has increased markedly over the past decade, the results have done little to help marketers to justify sponsorship spending. Not only do marketers have little knowledge of a sponsored event’s financial return, they also struggle to demonstrate any impact on consumer behavior at all. Using multi-wave survey data, we quantified the financial impact of a sponsorship. We predicted the number of new buyers based upon changed brand attitudes, consistent with a hierarchy of effects model. We then established the financial return on the sponsorship spending by estimating the customer lifetime value (CLV) of these new buyers. We collected the data around a major college football bowl game. Six phases of data collection were used to determine purchasing behavior and brand attitudes of attendees before and after the sponsored event, in comparison to television viewers of the event and the general public. We applied Lavidge and Elrick’s (1961) attitudinal constructs as the independent variables in a logistic regression to predict future purchase. The final data collection was used to validate the model’s prediction. The findings show that the model accurately predicted the number of new customers after one buying cycle for the sponsor’s products. We also quantified the positive impact of the sponsorship on the CLV of existing customers within the same time frame. The managerial implications of this study are significant. Sponsorships are highly risky, with fixed outlays up front, and unclear benefits to be realized in the future. We provide a methodology that not only allows sponsors to measure the effectiveness of the sponsorship, but to determine the return on their sponsorship investment. We have taken consumer behavior theory from marketing communications research and combined it with CLV tools, thus allowing marketers to determine the number of new customers that a sponsorship generates, as well as how it influences the buying patterns that drive customer lifetime value.

A review of the literature revealed that various scholars on the subject of customer relationship management hold divergent views on the exact domain of CRM because of its multi-faceted nature. Furthermore, CRM remains vague in terms of its impact on firm performance because the generative mechanisms have not been fully considered. In response, a theoretical framework of CRM as the underpinning foundation which establishes the linkages between CRM and the firm's performance is proposed, which synthesizes different perspectives of key constructs of CRM and thus seeks to incorporate them into a practical and coherent framework that can be universally used. Therefore, the central aim of this thesis is to develop an empirically based conceptual model of the process that has the potential for crossing cultural and sectoral boundaries and highlights the potential link between CRM and the establishment of long term customer value. This thesis presents and discusses empirical findings from a survey of 226 senior managers and 584 customers in the Taiwanese banking sector who are examined from their perspectives by using structural equation modeling. From the perspective of managers, the findings largely supported the proposed hypotheses. Customer interaction and customisation, but not customer knowledge and customer knowledge management (CKM) capability, are significantly and positively related to customer value. CKM capability and customization are crucial in affecting customer satisfaction. The results also provided strong evidence of customer values' impact on customer satisfaction, which in turn is necessary determinant of customer loyalty. Furthermore, the relationship between customer loyalty and CLV is positive. Consequently, it has been found that customer benefits play significant mediating roles between CRM and firm performance. On the other hand, from the perspective of customers, the results showed that managerial perceptions of CRM practice have no relationships with the customer value and customer satisfaction as perceived by customers. This thesis contributes to academic and managerial knowledge by providing alternative insights into CRM's influences on the customer's benefits and the firm's performance from a dyadic perspective in one single model. Particularly, the inclusion of customer value and customer satisfaction constructs as key consequences of CRM is suggested to contribute additionally to provide a more complete model of a CRM-performance relationship within the banking setting. Therefore, the framework as a diagnostic tool can be used to identify where specific improvements are needed and where certain aspects of the organizational operations could be improved in CRM for pursuing their competitive advantage and long-term profit.