Recentes pesquisas no campo do Marketing têm apresentado resultados demonstrando que estratégias baseadas em elevar o Valor Vitalício dos Clientes (CLV) podem ter um impacto positivo no valor ao acionista. Em consequência disso, o Customer Equity, equivalente à soma dos CLVs dos clientes, também chamado de valor da base de clientes de uma empresa, vem se estabelecendo como métrica capaz de comprovar o impacto do Marketing no valor das empresas. A lógica que sustenta esta relação está no fato de que o valor das ações está baseado na expectativa de fluxo de caixa futuro, que provêm da base de clientes. O cálculo do CLV dos clientes também apresenta uma importante utilidade gerencial como balizador da correta alocação de recursos de Marketing, indicando os clientes mais lucrativos no longo prazo. A partir do modelo de Kumar e Shah (2009), esta dissertação realiza o cálculo do Customer Equity de uma empresa do setor financeiro a partir de informações individuais das transações dos clientes. O CLV é calculado individualmente, permitindo identificar o perfil dos clientes mais rentáveis no longo-prazo. Também é testada a relação entre Customer Equity e capitalização de mercado ao longo de 31 meses, sem comprovação de associação significativa entre as variáveis, mas havendo um sinal de relação positiva entre elas. Os resultados são discutidos, e, por fim, são analisadas implicações gerenciais e sugestões de pesquisas futuras. / Recent research in the field of Marketing have presented results demonstrating that strategies based on raising the Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) can have a positive impact on shareholder value. As a result, the Customer Equity, the sum of the customer’s CLVs, also called a customer’s base value of a company, has established itself as a metric able to demonstrate the impact of Marketing on the value of companies. The logic that underlies this relationship is in the fact that the value of the shares is based on expected future cash flows that stem from the customer base. Calculating customer’s CLV also has an important management utility of indicate the proper allocation of Marketing resources, identifying the most profitable customers in the long run. From the model of Kumar and Shah (2009), this paper performs the calculation of the Customer Equity of a financial institution from individual details of customer’s transactions. The CLV is calculated individually, allowing to identify the profile of the most profitable customers in the long run. Is also tested the relationship between Customer Equity and market capitalization over 31 months, without being proven a significant association between variables, but having a sign of a positive relationship between them. The results are discussed, and finally, managerial implications and suggestions for future research are analyzed.

The main goal of the diploma thesis is the description and comparison of existing methods for calculating the customer lifetime value at a firm. Second, minor goal is based on the comparison to choose a suitable method of calculation for an application in a real business unit. The used methodology contains detailed research of available foreign academic literature. Building on that a comparison of the methods based on selected criteria is conducted. Results of a questionnaire survey are used in the last chapter to provide specific sugestions for the possible marketing applications of CLV approach and calculation in a specific business unit.

This thesis deals with another possible approach to segmentation of the customer base in the surveyed company than the one currently used. Specifically, the issue of lifetime customer value is discussed. A review shows several possible approaches and some selected models will be applied to the customer base in the practical part of thesis. Work addresses not only the application of selected models, but especially the comparison of analysis results with the original segmentation. The aim is to track changes in segmentation after applying these models and provide the proof that this metric is an appropriate evaluation component in segmentation for a particular company. An integral part are therefore recommendations for management and sales representatives. Calculations are performed in Excel. At the end of each chapter are specific achievements and comparisons with the initial segmentation. The result of this work is to suggest several models of customer lifetime value calculation that the company may apply to benefit from when creating a new segmentation model.

This Diploma thesis deals with measuring the effectiveness of marketing investments on the real model used by Royal Philips Electronics. Firstly, on the basis of qualitative research conducted through semi-structured personal interviews with marketing managers in Philips and participation in two marketing projects in the company, it determines the advantages, disadvantages and restrictive elements of the current model. Then in the theoretical context, it is compared with the practices of other companies which are one of the conclusions of the qualitative interviews. The result is a proposal of current model's improvements of measuring ROI marketing investments.

A questão da produtividade das atividades de marketing é um antigo debate da disciplina, porém ganhou destaque nos anos 1990 a partir de uma conjuntura que propiciou questionamentos sobre a eficácia e eficiência dos departamentos de marketing das empresas. Argumentou-se que o marketing deveria ir além das métricas tradicionais e explicitar as consequências de marketing para todos os stakeholders. Nesse sentido, os conceitos de customer equity e customer lifetime value têm se mostrado promissores em fazer a conexão marketing-finanças a partir de uma série de estudos iniciados nos anos 1990. Desde então foram elaboradas inúmeras modelagens a fim de mensurar a contribuição das ações de marketing empiricamente. De fato, evidências apontam para uma real contribuição de marketing dentro da empresa, seja pelo valor da marca, da clientela, da satisfação, lealdade entre outros. No entanto, a diversidade de modelos pode significar um entrave na padronização de cálculo e não existem pesquisas que estudem o impacto do modelo escolhido nos resultados da estimação nem sua implicação para tomada de decisão. A presente tese visou investigar até que ponto existe modelo dependência na estimação do customer equity e customer lifetime value, já que os resultados impactam diretamente na estratégia a ser utilizada pela gerência e, consequentemente, no desempenho da empresa A partir da classificação dos modelos foram comparados aqueles chamados de determinísticos, um grupo de modelos com características semelhantes e implementação simplificada. Os resultados indicam que, no caso da utilização do customer equity para avaliação financeira da empresa a estimação apresenta grande variabilidade, o que indica modelo dependência e a necessidade de aprofundamento metodológico, principalmente em negócios com alta heterogeneidade de margens e retenções. O ciclo de vida do cliente, por sua vez apresenta modelo dependência no que diz respeito a estratégia gerencial para maximizar o mesmo, sendo a seguinte: nos modelos de projeção infinita a retenção de clientes apresenta “prêmio” crescente no ciclo de vida esperado, enquanto que margens de contribuição tem peso maior em ambientes com retenção menor que 50% aproximadamente. Modelos com projeção finita, no entanto, não apresentam essa característica, sendo a retenção sempre a causar maior impacto marginal no valor do ciclo de vida esperado. Esses resultados fornecem evidências para concluirmos que existe modelo dependência na estimação de tais métricas. / The marketing productivity is an old debate in the field and has gained substantial attention since 1990’s as a product of a context that raised questions about the real contribution of marketing, its efficiency and efficacy. Managers argued that marketing should demonstrate its effects beyond traditional metrics and making them available to all business’ stakeholders. In this sense, customer equity and customer lifetime value has been used to make the connection between marketing and finance by 1990’s until now. In fact, research has shown that marketing contributes to firm value by elevating brand equity, customer loyalty and satisfaction, customer equity, among others. However, the large number of customer equity and customer lifetime models can be a difficulty on finding standard methodology, and there are no studies that compare model’s impact on results. This study aims to investigate the dependency of the models in estimating customer equity and customer lifetime value and its consequence on strategy adoption by managers. Starting from a classification proposal, a group of deterministic models were chosen to be compared. Results show that using customer equity for valuation purposes is model dependent, since models present great estimation variability, especially in a heterogeneous context. Customer lifetime value does produce divergent strategies and has model dependency as well: on models of infinite projection retention rates have increasing effect on expected customer lifetime values, but margins are preferred until a retention threshold of fifty percent. This does not occur within a model with finite projection, which retention rates has always more impact than margins. The sum of this results offer evidence that, indeed, model dependency on estimating customer equity and customer lifetime value exists.

Understanding the contribution of marketing to the shareholder value of a company has been a major challenge for marketing research. The purpose of this dissertation was creating and validating an attitudinal measure of customer equity in hospitality businesses, thus providing a link between return on marketing and the shareholder value of a company. The theoretical background of the customer equity construct was examined, and then systematic scale development processes were initiated. The results produced two concise scales: (1) 17 items that represent the six dimensions of customer equity in the restaurant industry and (2) 19 items that represent the six dimensions of customer equity in the hotel industry. Six dimensions of customer equity achieved strong convergent validity, discriminant validity, and internal consistency, indicating unidimensionality of the constructs. To further validate the newly developed scale, criterion validity was checked in correlation with six criterion measures using data collected from 590 hospitality industry consumers. The results demonstrate that customer equity closely reflects the shareholder value of a company. Also, it was found that value equity, brand equity, relationship equity, and service quality are significantly and positively correlated with overall customer equity of a company. In conclusion, customer equity represents the long-term value of a company, and reflects shareholder value of the company, thus providing a link with return on marketing investments. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed. / Ph. D.

Churn prediction is used to identify customers that are becoming less loyal and is an important tool for companies that want to stay competitive in a rapidly growing market. In retail, a dynamic definition of churn is needed to identify churners correctly. Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is the monetary value of a customer relationship. No change in CLV for a given customer indicates a decrease in loyalty. This thesis proposes a novel approach to churn prediction. The proposed model uses a Recurrent Neural Network to identify churners based on Customer Lifetime Value time series regression. The results show that the model performs better than random. This thesis also investigated the use of the K-means algorithm as a replacement to a rule-extraction algorithm. The K-means algorithm contributed to a more comprehensive analytical context regarding the churn prediction of the proposed model. / Illojalitet prediktering används för att identifiera kunder som är påväg att bli mindre lojala och är ett hjälpsamt verktyg för att ett företag ska kunna driva en konkurrenskraftig verksamhet. I detaljhandel behöves en dynamisk definition av illojalitet för att korrekt kunna identifera illojala kunder. Kundens livstidsvärde är ett mått på monetärt värde av en kundrelation. En avstannad förändring av detta värde indikerar en minskning av kundens lojalitet. Denna rapport föreslår en ny metod för att utföra illojalitet prediktering. Den föreslagna metoden består av ett återkommande neuralt nätverk som används för att identifiera illojalitet hos kunder genom att prediktera kunders livstidsvärde. Resultaten visar att den föreslagna modellen presterar bättre jämfört med slumpmässig metod. Rapporten undersöker också användningen av en k-medelvärdesalgoritm som ett substitut för en regelextraktionsalgoritm. K-medelsalgoritm bidrog till en mer omfattande analys av illojalitet predikteringen.

In recent years, the direct-to-consumer business (DTC) has become an increasingly popular way for companies to conduct their business. A large part of why companies choose to build a business based on DTC is for the consumer data they get access to. This study aims to understand how small emerging DTC companies achieve sustainable growth as they both have to acquire new customers and retain existing customers. The empirical data consisted of qualitative interviews with three DTC companies operating in three different industries. The result of this study, which was based on the dynamic marketing capabilities model, is that a DTC company best achieves sustainable growth from a customer-centric approach, where decisions are based on data. This allows the organization to work more agile and, as a result, proactive manner. / Under de senaste åren har man kunnat se ett skifte i hur allt fler direct-to-consumer (DTC)-företag har startat. Anledningen till att DTC har blivit ett populärt sätt att bedriva sin verksamhet genom är för att företagen kan nå ut till sina kunder på ett effektivt sätt och på så sätt kunna anpassa sin verksamhet efter dem. Syftet med denna studie är att förstå hur små framväxande DTC-företag uppnår hållbar tillväxt då de både måste anskaffa nya kunder och värna om redan existerande kunder. Den empiriska data bestod av kvalitativa intervjuer med tre DTC-företag, verksamma inom tre olika industrier. Resultatet av denna studie som utgick från dynamic marketing capabilities-modellen, är att ett DTC-företag bäst uppnår en hållbar tillväxt från ett kundcentrerat tillvägagångssätt, där beslut baseras på data. Genom tydliga och informativa processer möjliggör det för företag att jobba mer proaktivt.

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No / In the past, marketing researchers have proposed the use of simple net present value analyses to assess customer lifetime values (CLVs). However, simple net present values disregard two important aspects: (1) environmental risks affecting customer cash flows and (2) a firm's flexibility in reacting to these risks. Consequently, they are inappropriate for assessing CLVs in relationships, in which risks affect customer cash flows and suppliers are able to react. This paper suggests a typology of CLV models in accordance with the degree of environmental risk and the supplier's flexibility. The paper thus contributes to a more differentiated customer lifetime valuation and, consequently, to a more accurate basis for decision making in relationships. The use of real options analysis is recommended for relationships which are affected by environmental risks and in which suppliers are flexible. By applying real options analysis to customer lifetime valuation, the paper offers a new methodological approach, thus merging financial valuation methods with key marketing concepts.