Customer lifetime value (CLV) is a forecasted expectation of the future value of a customer to the firm. There are two customer behavioral components of CLV that represent a particular modeling challenge: 1) how many transactions we expect from a customer in the future, and 2) how likely it is the customer remains active. Existing CLV models like the Pareto/NBD are valuable managerial tools because they are able to provide forward-looking estimates of transaction patterns and customer churn when the event of a customer leaving is unobservable, which is typical for most noncontractual goods and services. The CLV model literature has for the most part maintained its original assumption that the number of customer transactions follows a stable transaction process. Yet there are many categories of noncontractual goods and services where the stable transaction rate assumption is violated, particularly seasonal purchase patterns. CLV model estimates are further biased when there is an excess of customers with no repeat transactions. To address these modeling challenges, within this thesis I develop a generalized CLV modeling framework that combines three elements necessary to reduce bias in model estimates: 1) the incorporation of time-varying covariates to model data with transaction rates that change over time, 2) a zero-inflated model specification for customers with no repeat transactions, and 3) generalizes to different transaction process distributions to better fit diverse customer transaction patterns. This CLV modeling framework provides firms better estimates of the future activity of their customers, a critical CRM application.

近年來，企業行銷理論從傳統的將注意力放在吸引新顧客上，轉而變成留意舊顧客的維持，如何留住舊顧客，進而從舊顧客中找出具有高價值的顧客，與他們建立長期且有獲利性的關係，則是近年來企業營運及行銷關注的焦點。 本研究使用了顧客知識管理管理來提升企業實行顧客終身價值管理之效益，並提供了顧客維持度、顧客貢獻度，顧客市場區隔三個維度來分析顧客，能更精確的指出關鍵客群，以「記憶體模組產業」作為研究對象，主要係在探討記憶體模組產業之顧客關係管理及顧客價值管理。 本研究透過次級資料收集與分析，以產業分析架構來了解DRAM模組產業現況及趨勢，並以Cambell顧客知識能力模型及SWOT 分析等策略理論將資料作歸納與整理，最後以深度訪談方式來加強或修正次級資料所得到之結論，得出適合個案公司之終端顧客之顧客知識管理作業流程及資料模型，以做為建議企業營運發展策略之參考。 最後，以資料庫結構面、企業流程面、顧客關係管理面及顧客知識管理面四個構面來歸納總結研究。導入顧客知識管理與顧客終身價值管理流程之目標，在於增進個體戶之顧客滿意度及忠誠度，進而提升整體顧客終身價值，另一方面，除了能提供更完善的顧問及技術諮詢的服務，亦能經由市場區隔之分析，使得產品銷售策略更符合市場需求。 / Recently, Business marketing theory is changed to the customer retention.It is important that find out and pay attention to key customers. Enterprises look out for to keep old customer and find out the customer with high value from the old customer.They focus on establishing long-term relation of having profitability with customers. The research used as an example of P campany in the case study.Based on the benefit of customer knowledge management and customer lifetime value,this study is mainly probed DRAM module industry’s customer ralation management and customer lifetime value .Then, it used customer’s retention degree, customer's contribution degree and market segmentation to analyse customers’ behavior. This research collected and analysed through the secondery materials and the analysis was based on industry analysis models such as Cambell’s customer knowledge ability model and the SWOT analysis model to analyze the pros and cons of DRAM industry’s trend and present situation.Then,the study strengthen or revise the conclusion by way of depth interview finally and get ideal end customer knowledge management workflow and data model of end customer ,regard it as the reference of enterprise's strategy. Above all, this sudy use four aspect such as database structue、enterprise’s workflow、CRM and CKM to summarize. The purpose of establishing the procedure of customer knowledge management and customer lifetime value is to improve the customer satisfaction and loyalty, and then emhance whole customer lifetime value.On the other hand, except to offer better services and consultation, Enterprises also can gain more revenue by market segementation and product position.

Na busca da área de marketing, pela métrica adequada para a empresa com a gestão centrada no cliente, o valor do cliente (customer equity) é a abordagem que tem despertado mais interesse por parte da academia e dos executivos – um campo promissor, que possibilita a ligação das ações de marketing com o valor da empresa. Sob essa perspectiva, os clientes são ativos da empresa com capacidade de gerar fluxos de caixa futuros. A avaliação do valor do cliente (customer equity) permite o acesso aos ativos intangíveis da empresa, além de propiciar uma gestão mais eficiente da área de marketing. Desta forma, esta dissertação testa a força da relação entre o valor do cliente e o valor de mercado da empresa, através da aplicação de dois modelos de valor do cliente (customer equity): o estático e dinâmico proposto por Gupta, Lehmann e Stuart (2004).Para tanto, foi conduzido um estudo longitudinal com dados secundários de empresas do setor de comunicação do mercado brasileiro. Como resultado, foi comprovado o forte poder de associação entre o valor do cliente (customer equity) e o valor de mercado da empresa. Outrossim, são analisadas as relações com os demais ativos da empresa e a capacidade de predição do valor do cliente (customer equity). Os resultados obtidos são discutidos, bem como as implicações gerenciais e recomendações para pesquisas futuras. / The search in the marketing field for an adequate metric for customer-centric companies, the customer equity is the approach that has brought the most interest by academics and executives. A promising field that makes possible links between marketing actions and the value of a company. Under this perspective, customers are company’s assets with the capability of generating future cash flows. The evaluation of customer equity not only permits access to intangibles assets of the company but also provides a more efficient way to manage a marketing area. This dissertation tests the strength of the relationship between customer equity and the market value of a company by applying two models to valuate customer equity: static and dynamic proposed by Gupta, Lehmann and Stuart (2004). For that, it was conducted a longitudinal study with secondary data from communication corporations in Brazil. The result showed a high correlation between customer equity and the market value of corporations. It was also analyzed the relationship with the other assets of the company and the capability of predicting the value of customer equity. The findings are being discussed as well as the managerial implications and recommendations for future research.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:19:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 68070200653.pdf: 7431685 bytes, checksum: d221cf2637e5c32e8863ee80fcc97c71 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-12-17T00:00:00Z / The market for Brazilian home builders has undergone in recent years trough profound transformations. Changes in supplier-customer relationship has occurred in ways that will affect the suppliers profitability and future market position. This study aimed to evaluate the strategy of co-creation for expansion of the market segment for a Brazilian china and faucets producer. The adoption of this strategy aims to use the company’s intangible assets to increase the added value to their products; to know in detail the reality of the clients and to differentiate itself from competitors in a market with a tendency to commodity. The reassessment of existing strategy, uses as a starting point the core competence and the concepts of innovation and co-creation in order to increase the value perceived by potential customers. To evaluate the results of the strategic repositioning this study will use a non-financial indicator, the Customer Lifetime Value in order to measure the long term impacts. / O mercado brasileiro da construção civil tem sofrido profundas transformações nos últimos anos, principalmente na relação fornecedor-cliente, que afetam de maneira significativa a lucratividade e o posicionamento de mercado dos fabricantes de insumos. Por conseguinte, as empresas têm buscado novas formas de criar valores, voltadas para o seu capital humano. Considerando-se a necessidade de os funcionários anteciparem e compreenderem as novas demandas do mercado, o objetivo neste trabalho é estudar o processo de co-criação como geração de valor na empresa Deca, avaliando-se os seus efeitos estratégicos diante da nova realidade e, ainda, seu impacto na relação com o cliente. Com o processo de co-criação, a empresa visa a utilizar seus recursos intangíveis para agregar valor a seus produtos, conhecer com profundidade a realidade de seus clientes e diferenciar-se dos concorrentes em um mercado com tendência à comoditização. Além disso, visa a reavaliar as estratégias existentes, tendo em vista o seu reposicionamento com base em suas competências centrais de fabricante de louças e metais sanitários e em conceitos de inovação e co-criação, no intuito de aumentar o valor percebido por clientes potenciais e expandir sua fronteira de atuação atual. Na avaliação dos resultados dessa tentativa de reposicionamento estratégico, utiliza-se um indicador não financeiro, o Customer Lifetime Value, com o objetivo de mensurar os impactos no longo prazo.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:55:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 Rodrigo Romano Pretola.pdf.jpg: 16604 bytes, checksum: 6ef0b6f175820527a24abbb7cae3b0bf (MD5) Rodrigo Romano Pretola.pdf.txt: 298292 bytes, checksum: cbe3615aba3312d1c72056005ecee7d7 (MD5) Rodrigo Romano Pretola.pdf: 10183003 bytes, checksum: ec9ccb3d3762709a58a8d6fe0b4a82d8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-10-03T00:00:00Z / Companies that operate in high technology environments marked by continuous metamorphosis in supplier-customer relationships are hostages of their marketing strategies in the search for profitable growth. In order to release themselves of this condition, they depend on the continued development of new skills. In this context, co-creating value with customers providing unique interaction experiences with the company becomes an imperative. This work deals with the application of a marketing strategy based on the concept of co-creating value by the company with the customer. Companies induce this process and customers become the central agent. This approach will be proposed and implemented in a company that works in the Brazilian telecommunication business. This company must transform the way it competes in the market as a consequence of its commoditized services, low income growth rate and the need to build relationships that encourage customer loyalty. Financial and non-financial results will be measured and compared to current practice in which customer centricity is unusual in the process of creating value. We will try to assess whether a new level of profitability can be achieved with this new approach. The metric to be used will be the Lifetime Customer Value (CLV / Empresas que atuam em ambientes de alta tecnologia marcados por metamorfoses contínuas na relação cliente-fornecedor ficam reféns de suas estratégias de marketing na busca do crescimento lucrativo. Para se libertarem dessa condição dependem do desenvolvimento perene de novas competências. O caminho que se abre nessa direção revela-se no imperativo de co-criar valor com os clientes provendo experiências únicas de interação com a empresa. Este trabalho visa a aplicação de uma estratégia de marketing baseada na co-criação de valor feita pela empresa com o cliente, o primeiro como indutor e este último, agente central do processo. Esta abordagem será sugerida e aplicada numa empresa que atua no setor brasileiro de telecomunicações, na qual se impõe transformar sua maneira de competir no mercado, dada a tendência de comoditização de seus serviços, estagnação no crescimento da receita e necessidade de construção de relacionamentos que favoreçam a fidelização dos seus clientes. Resultados financeiros e não financeiros serão mensurados e comparados com a prática vigente, num contexto onde a centralidade do cliente não é usual na criação de valor para os serviços prestados. Neste sentido buscaremos avaliar se um novo patamar de lucratividade e crescimento poderá ser obtido com esta nova abordagem. A métrica a ser utilizada será o Customer Lifetime Value (CLV ou valor do cliente ao longo do tempo).

Na busca da área de marketing, pela métrica adequada para a empresa com a gestão centrada no cliente, o valor do cliente (customer equity) é a abordagem que tem despertado mais interesse por parte da academia e dos executivos – um campo promissor, que possibilita a ligação das ações de marketing com o valor da empresa. Sob essa perspectiva, os clientes são ativos da empresa com capacidade de gerar fluxos de caixa futuros. A avaliação do valor do cliente (customer equity) permite o acesso aos ativos intangíveis da empresa, além de propiciar uma gestão mais eficiente da área de marketing. Desta forma, esta dissertação testa a força da relação entre o valor do cliente e o valor de mercado da empresa, através da aplicação de dois modelos de valor do cliente (customer equity): o estático e dinâmico proposto por Gupta, Lehmann e Stuart (2004).Para tanto, foi conduzido um estudo longitudinal com dados secundários de empresas do setor de comunicação do mercado brasileiro. Como resultado, foi comprovado o forte poder de associação entre o valor do cliente (customer equity) e o valor de mercado da empresa. Outrossim, são analisadas as relações com os demais ativos da empresa e a capacidade de predição do valor do cliente (customer equity). Os resultados obtidos são discutidos, bem como as implicações gerenciais e recomendações para pesquisas futuras. / The search in the marketing field for an adequate metric for customer-centric companies, the customer equity is the approach that has brought the most interest by academics and executives. A promising field that makes possible links between marketing actions and the value of a company. Under this perspective, customers are company’s assets with the capability of generating future cash flows. The evaluation of customer equity not only permits access to intangibles assets of the company but also provides a more efficient way to manage a marketing area. This dissertation tests the strength of the relationship between customer equity and the market value of a company by applying two models to valuate customer equity: static and dynamic proposed by Gupta, Lehmann and Stuart (2004). For that, it was conducted a longitudinal study with secondary data from communication corporations in Brazil. The result showed a high correlation between customer equity and the market value of corporations. It was also analyzed the relationship with the other assets of the company and the capability of predicting the value of customer equity. The findings are being discussed as well as the managerial implications and recommendations for future research.

Na busca da área de marketing, pela métrica adequada para a empresa com a gestão centrada no cliente, o valor do cliente (customer equity) é a abordagem que tem despertado mais interesse por parte da academia e dos executivos – um campo promissor, que possibilita a ligação das ações de marketing com o valor da empresa. Sob essa perspectiva, os clientes são ativos da empresa com capacidade de gerar fluxos de caixa futuros. A avaliação do valor do cliente (customer equity) permite o acesso aos ativos intangíveis da empresa, além de propiciar uma gestão mais eficiente da área de marketing. Desta forma, esta dissertação testa a força da relação entre o valor do cliente e o valor de mercado da empresa, através da aplicação de dois modelos de valor do cliente (customer equity): o estático e dinâmico proposto por Gupta, Lehmann e Stuart (2004).Para tanto, foi conduzido um estudo longitudinal com dados secundários de empresas do setor de comunicação do mercado brasileiro. Como resultado, foi comprovado o forte poder de associação entre o valor do cliente (customer equity) e o valor de mercado da empresa. Outrossim, são analisadas as relações com os demais ativos da empresa e a capacidade de predição do valor do cliente (customer equity). Os resultados obtidos são discutidos, bem como as implicações gerenciais e recomendações para pesquisas futuras. / The search in the marketing field for an adequate metric for customer-centric companies, the customer equity is the approach that has brought the most interest by academics and executives. A promising field that makes possible links between marketing actions and the value of a company. Under this perspective, customers are company’s assets with the capability of generating future cash flows. The evaluation of customer equity not only permits access to intangibles assets of the company but also provides a more efficient way to manage a marketing area. This dissertation tests the strength of the relationship between customer equity and the market value of a company by applying two models to valuate customer equity: static and dynamic proposed by Gupta, Lehmann and Stuart (2004). For that, it was conducted a longitudinal study with secondary data from communication corporations in Brazil. The result showed a high correlation between customer equity and the market value of corporations. It was also analyzed the relationship with the other assets of the company and the capability of predicting the value of customer equity. The findings are being discussed as well as the managerial implications and recommendations for future research.

One of the biggest responsibilities of today’s marketing managers is to use their financial and labour resources in the most efficient way. However, any kind of traditional marketing method which is designed and spread by the seller is both costly and less influential on customer’s buying behaviour. Word of Mouth, which can simply be explained as any marketing action that leads to earn customer recommendation, (Word of Mouth Marketing Association) helps organizations to burst their sales revenues while decreasing their marketing budgets. WOM is considered as more transparent, more credible and more relevant by customers. Besides, it is a cheaper way of advertisement for organizations due to its organic spread characteristic. Therefore, marketers should focus on creating strategic marketing actions that will keep WOM effect at the peak level. This research attempts to disprove the common belief that, WOM cannot be controlled by the seller itself. Especially, the effort will be put on Business to Business relationships, which are usually considered more unreactive to WOM communication. In order to achieve that, author will provide a four-step WOM analysis framework to its readers. First, transactions mapping will be utilised to see possible areas of WOM development. Afterwards, WOM actors of the market will be identified and customer decision cycle elements will be disclosed in order to understand the WOM potential of a particular market. Final step of the framework will be the calculation of Customer’s Total Value which is composed of their Lifetime and Referral Values. Research also includes an online survey, whose results are converted to numerical data in order to determine Customers´ Referral Value. In the final part, Telefónica Data/Capacity Services´ customers will be ranked according to their total values and a Customer Value Matrix will be created. Customers will be segmented into four main groups named as Champions, Affluents, Advocates and Misers; all of which have different buying and WOM characteristics. Ultimately, tailored WOM strategies will be advised in order to maximize each group’s total value.

Customer lifetime value (CLV) provides a measure of customer revenue contribution. It allows to justify marketing campaigns, overall budgeting, and strategy planning. CLV is an estimated cash flow attributed to the entire relationship with customers in the future. Ability to utilize information gained from CLV analysis at the most efficient way, provides a strong competitive advantage. The concept of CLV was studied and modeled with application to the online payments industry which is relatively new and at its growing phase. Ability to predict CLV accurately conveys a great value for guiding the industry (i.e. emerging companies) to maturity. CLV analysis in this case becomes complex due to the fact that usually the databases of such companies are huge and include transactions from different industries: e-commerce, financial services, travel, gaming etc. This paper aims to define an appropriate model for CLV prediction in the online payments setting. The proposed model segments customers first in order to improve performance of the predictive model. Then Pareto/NBD model was applied to predict CLV at the customer-level for each customer segment separately. Although the results show that it is possible to predict CLV at some extent, the model needs to be further improved and possible pitfalls need to be scrutinized. Discussion on these issues is provided in the following sections. / Kundens livstidsvärde (Customer lifetime value) är ett mått på hur en kund bidrar till företagets omsättning. Det tillåter att åskådliggöra försäljningskampanjer, företagets budget och företagets strategi. Kundens livstidsvärde är en estimering av betalningsflöde som ett företag kan tjäna av kunder i framtiden. Möjligheten att nyttiggöra informationen från kundens livstidsvärde analys ger företag en starkt konkurrenskraftig fördel. Kundens livstidsvärde var studerat och modellerat med anknytning till online betalningstjänster industri, vilken har utvecklats kraftigt inom senaste åren. Möjligheten att predikera kundens livstidsvärde med hög noggranhet medför ett starkt värde för företag som erbjuder tjänster inom online betalningar och kan driva dessa till mognad. Att predikera kundens livstidsvärde inom denna bransch anses vara en komplex process, då databaser hos såna föratag är stora och inkluderar information om transaktioner från olika industrier såsom: elektronisk handel, finansiella tjänster, rese- och spelbolag. I denna studie definieras en modell för att kunna predikera kundens livstidsvärde baserat på data från ett företag som tillhandahåller online betalningstjänster. För att uppnå bättre prestanda, segmenterar den föreslagna modellen kunder först. Därefter en Pareto/NBD modell används, för att predikera kundens livstidsvärde för varje kundsegment. Trots att resultat visar att kundens livtidsvärde kan modelleras till en viss nivå, modellen behöver förbättras och möjliga blindskär måste granskas.

Syfte: Studiens syfte är att undersöka svenska och amerikanska företagsmäklares inställning till kundkapitalet och dess värderingsmodeller. Studien syftar även till att finna konsekvenser som en explicit redovisning av kundkapitalet skulle ha på företagsvärderingar.   Tidigare forskning: Centrala modeller i studien är Customer Lifetime Value, Customer Equity, Customer Profitability och Multi-Period Excess Earnings Model. Tidigare forskning hittas i Edvinsson och Malone (1997), Gupta et al (2004), Villanueva och Hanssens (2007), Wiesel et al., (2006) samt Hofstedes forskning om nationella dimensioner.    Metod: Studien använder metodtriangulering. Huvudsaklig primärdata genereras ur webbaserade enkäter som skickas till svenska och amerikanska företagsmäklare. Vidare utförs tre semi-strukturerade intervjuer med representanter från KPMG, Deloitte och UC. Ett chi-tvåtest utformas för att se om det finns ett samband mellan nationalitet och företagsmäklares inställning till att beakta kundkapitalet.   Slutsats: 72 procent av de deltagande företagsmäklarna och samtliga intervjupersoner anser att det är viktigt att värdera kundkapitalet. Trots detta är det endast 38 procent av enkätrespondenterna som svarar att de beaktar kundkapitalet vid värdering av kundbaserade företag. En jämförelse mellan nationaliteterna visar att svenska företagsmäklare är mer positiva till de ”nya” kundvärderingsmodellerna, främst Customer Equity och Customer Profitability. De är också mer benägna att använda dessa. Amerikanska företagsmäklare tenderar istället att använda den traditionella Multi-Period Excess Earnings Method. / Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to investigate Swedish and American business appraisers’ attitude towards customer capital and its valuation models. This thesis also aims to find consequences that an explicit accounting of customer capital would have on business valuations.  Previous Research: Central models in this study are Customer Lifetime Value, Customer Equity, Customer Profitability and Multi-Period Excess Earnings Method. Previous research is found in Edvinsson and Malone (1997), Gupta et al., (2004), Villanueva and Hanssens (2007), Wiesel et al., (2006) and Hofstedes research regarding cultural dimensions. Method: This study uses a triangulation of methods. The main primary data is generated through internet-based questionnaires which was sent to Swedish and American business appraisers. Furthermore, three semi-structured interviews are conducted with representatives from KPMG, Deloitte and UC. A chi-Squared test is made to see if there is any relationship between nationality and business appraisers’ attitude towards taking heed of the customer capital. Conclusion:  72 per cent of the participated business appraisers and all interviewees think that it is important to value customer capital. Despite this, there are only 38 per cent of the survey respondents who say that they account for customer capital when valuing customer-based companies. A comparison between the nationalities show that Swedish business appraisers are more positive towards the “new” customer valuation models such as Customer Equity and Customer Profitability. They are also more inclined to use these. American business appraisers tend to use the more traditional Multi-Period Excess Earnings Method.