Hurricanes are a threat to power and telecommunication infrastructure. This work summarizes a method for hurricane characterization using the proposed Localized Tropical Cyclone Intensity Index(LTCII) as a model for estimating damages to Electric power infrastructure. The model considers the effect of storm surge, maximum sustained wind speeds, the duration of time for which the system has been under tropical storm conditions and the area swept by hurricane over land. The measurements focus on major load centers in the system. The validation of the outage data is discussed. The model is evaluated for hurricanes from 2004, 2005 and 2008 hurricane seasons. The degree of influence of various hurricane parameters on the damages suffered by electric power systems are discussed using case studies. The maximum outages are observed to follow a logistic regression curve with respect to log(LTCII), with a correlation of 0.85. The observed restoration times fit a 6th degree polynomial with an R2 = 0.6. The effects of time under tropical storm winds were observed to have great significance in the damage profile observed with the model. / text

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The aim of Diploma thesis was the cultivation of microorganisms Lactobacillus plantarum CCM 7039 and Bacillus coagulans CCM 2658 on hydrolysed spent coffee grounds, production of lactid acid and modelling of these processes to find out more detailed characteristics. First, both microorganisms were cultivated in Erlenmeyer flasks on spent coffee grounds hydrolysate containing lipids and processed by extraction of lipids, e.g. lipid-free. The effect of nitrogen source and inoculation medium were monitored in the course of cultivation. The optimal conditions found were used for subsequent fermentation in bioreactors. Further, microorganisms were cultivated in the Erlenmeyer flasks in the media with individual carbohydrates typical for hydrolysed spent coffee grounds to determine its ability to utilize these carbohydrates. By fermentation in the bioreactors, the yield of lactic acid from carbohydrates was 97 % in Lactobacillus plantarum and 99 % in Bacillus coagulans, respectively. Models for growth and productivity of microorganisms were processed in MATLAB using logistic, generalized logistic and Monod functions. In general, the best data fit was achieved using a logistic function.

This work describes the modeling, synthesis, integration and characterization of a novel nanostructure embedded thermoresponsive material for microfluidic applications. The innumerable applications of thermoresponsive surfaces in the recent years have necessitated the development of a rigorous mathematical treatment for these surfaces to understand and improve their behavior. An analytical model is proposed to describe the transfer characteristic (variation of contact angle versus temperature) of a unique switchable, nanostructured, thermoresponsive surface consisting of silica nanoparticles and the thermoresponsive polymer, Poly(N-isopropylacrylamide ) (PNIPAAm) which changes its wetting angle upon heating. Important metrics such as the absolute lower critical solution temperature, threshold & saturation temperatures and gain are modeled and quantified by mathematical expressions. Based on the modeling, a heat source for the thermoresponsive surface was integrated on the glass substrate itself to create a fully functional smart surface. The design and fabrication of a smart platform consisting of the switchable, nanostructured, thermoresponsive surface with an integrated gold microheater for wettability control and its time response analysis was conducted. The insight gained into the behavior of the thermoresponsive surface by using the analytical model, aided the effort in the effective integration of the surface into a microfluidic channel for flow regulation applications. The implementations of novel microfluidic flow regulator concepts were tested. The aim is to integrate a regulator function to a channel surface utilizing the layer-by-layer (LBL) deposition technique. The characterization and pressure differential study of the microfluidic regulators was carried out on simple straight microchannels which were selectively coated with the thermoresponsive surface. Theoretical and experimental studies were performed to determine the important characteristic parameters including capillary, Weber and Reynolds numbers. The pressure differential data was used to develop critical operating specifications. This work lays out a new microfluidic device concept consisting of a channel with a built-in regulatory function.

[pt] Para avaliar projetos de investimento florestal, a Teoria de Opções Reais é utilizada com o propósito de incorporar questões relacionadas a incertezas e flexibilidades gerenciais. O objetivo desta dissertação é desenvolver uma modelagem para valoração de um projeto florestal, no qual a variação do estoque de árvores se aproxima do crescimento real de uma floresta, utilizando uma adaptação da equação logística. Desta forma, para um determinado nível de saturação, o estoque se estabiliza. Adicionalmente, o trabalho busca quantificar os benefícios econômicos de uma política ótima de produção a partir do corte de árvores. Para a análise proposta, os resultados são obtidos através do método de diferenças finitas explícitas. O problema apresenta três variáveis independentes - estoque, tempo e preço, sendo este modelado como um Movimento Geométrico Browniano - e duas variáveis dependentes - a taxa de corte e o valor da opção de investimento. É apresentada uma aplicação para uma floresta de eucalipto e os resultados são comparados considerando outras alternativas para a evolução do estoque de árvores, bem como para a decisão da quantidade a ser cortada. Para esta comparação, avalia-se o caso em que o estoque segue um modelo estocástico e o caso em que a taxa de corte é fixa. Os resultados mostram que é vantajoso adotar uma política ótima de corte, corroborando resultados obtidos em trabalhos anteriores de opções reais na área florestal. Além disso, o maior valor da opção é obtido quando o estoque é modelado pela equação logística para o crescimento. / [en] In order to incorporate uncertainty and managerial flexibilities in forestry investment projects, financial literature uses the real options approach. The aim of this work is to develop a model for valuation of a forestry project, in which the inventory growth of trees follows a logistic equation based in the estimated real growth of a forest. Thus, for a given level of saturation, the inventory stabilizes. In addition, this dissertation aims to quantify the economic benefits of an optimal production policy from cutting trees. For the proposal analysis, the results are obtained by the finite difference method in the explicit form. The problem has three independent variables – inventory, time and price, which is modeled as a Geometric Brownian Motion – and two dependent variables – the cutting rate and the value of the investment option. An application for an eucalyptus forest is presented and the results are compared considering other alternatives for the evolution of the inventory and for the decision on the cutting amount. For this purpose, two different assumptions are made, considering a stochastic model for the inventory and a fixed shear rate. The results show that it is advantageous to adopt a optimal cutting policy, confirming results obtained in previous studies of real options in forestry. Moreover, the greatest option value is obtained when the inventory is modeled by logistic equation for growth.

This thesis deals with nonlinear physics and chaos theory from its begining, through the main people to its application in various fields. This work has also part of fractals and fractal geometry. There are also source codes of various examples.

Precis som de flesta företag så har True Software Scandinavia AB en produkt där ute i marknaden. Produkten är en mobil applikation som går under namnet Truecaller. För att kunna leverera den bästa upplevelsen till slut användarna så krävs en stor global telefonkatalog. Förutom att företaget har en statistik på hur det har gått och går för deras produkt så finns även behovet att veta hur det kommer att gå i framtiden. Alltså man vill veta hur stor potential det finns i marknaden och med avseende på detta försöka estimera när man når sitt uppsatta mål. Syftet med detta projekt har varit att skapa ett verktyg som kan samla in data och utföra nödvändiga behandlingar för att kunna estimera den framtida tillväxten. Verktyget skapas med hjälp av programmeringsspråket Java och kommer vara i form av ett skrivbords applikation. Eftersom ett sådant verktyg är stort och komplicerad, så kan det lösas genom att delas upp i mindre bestånds delar. Varje del utvecklas för sig själv och allt sätts ihop på slutet. För att hela verktyget ska kunna vara funktionellt och ge något resultat så måste varje delkomponent fungera korrekt. I resultatet kommer vi att verifiera att varje delkomponent utför sitt arbete felfri. Förutom resultatet så kommer dessutom vissa diskussioner kring generell barhet, kritik och förbättringar på arbetet att tas upp i denna rapport. / Like most companies, True Software Scandinavia AB has a product out in the market. The product is a mobile application, called Truecaller. In order to deliver the best experience to the end users, a large global phonebook is required. In addition that the company has statistics of how things have gone and are going for their product, there is also a need to know how it will go in the future. Thus they want to know how much potential there is in the market and with regard to this, attempt to estimate when they reach their goal. The purpose of this project is to create a tool that can collect data and perform the necessary process in order to estimate future growth. The tool is created using the Java programming language and will be in the form of a desktop application. As these kinds of tools are large and complex, it will be solved by subdividing it into smaller constituent parts. After each part is separately developed, all parts will be put together at the end. In order for the tool to be functional and give any result, each component must work correctly. In the results, we will verify that each component performs its work faultless. Apart from the result, even some discussions about general sustainability, criticisms and improvements on the work will be included in this report.

Introduction: No Fixed-Dose Combination (FDC) formulations currently exist for pediatric tuberculosis (TB) treatment. Earlier work implemented, in the software NONMEM, a rational method for optimizing design and individualization of pediatric anti-TB FDC formulations based on patient body weight, but issues with parameter estimation, dosage strata heterogeneity and representative pharmacokinetics remained. Aim: To further develop the rational model-based methodology aiding the selection of appropriate FDC formulation designs and dosage regimens, in pediatric TB treatment. Materials and Methods: Optimization of the method with respect to the estimation of body weight breakpoints was sought. Heterogeneity of dosage groups with respect to treatment efficiency was sought to be improved. Recently published pediatric pharmacokinetic parameters were implemented and the model translated to MATLAB, where also the performance was evaluated by stochastic estimation and graphical visualization. Results: A logistic function was found better suited as an approximation of breakpoints. None of the estimation methods implemented in NONMEM were more suitable than the originally used FO method. Homogenization of dosage group treatment efficiency could not be solved. MATLAB translation was successful but required stochastic estimations and highlighted high densities of local minima. Representative pharmacokinetics were successfully implemented. Conclusions: NONMEM was found suboptimal for the task due to problems with discontinuities and heterogeneity, but a stepwise method with representative pharmacokinetics were successfully implemented. MATLAB showed more promise in the search for a method also addressing the heterogeneity issue.