In 1959, approximately 20 km to the north-west of České Budějovice a construction of a chemical uranium ore plant MAPE began. The plant operation started in 1962 and finished in 1991. The premises of the former chemical plant MAPE Mydlovary consisted of a plant in which uranium ore was manufactured and the manufactured material from uranium mines was stored in adjacent sludge lagoons. Uranium ore has never been mined in this area, neither in its surroundings. It has always been imported from uranium mines. Uranium was made from the ores by either acid or alkali leaching. Although this former uranium ore plant MAPE Mydlovary hasn´t been economically active anymore, it is nowadays one of the biggest environmental burden which results from ore mining and it's processing in the Czech Republic. Therefore, it is important to carry out remediation and recultivation works which are currently provided by the state enterprise DIAMO. DIAMO company, in fact, is also the owner of the former plant MAPE Mydlovary. During the operation of the former ore plant MAPE Mydlovary, about 1,100 employees took turns in the company. During the uranium ore treating and its consequent waste store in the lunge lagoons, employees of the plant were exposed to the effect of radionuclides. For this reason, my diploma thesis deals with the effect of radiation on employees of the former chemical plant MAPE Mydlovary and aims at the doses which the employees received while working in the plant. The data were gathered from October 2013 to April 2014 and contain figures for a period of 1963-1996. These figures were gained from personal dosimetrical files of the employees and these files were provided by the state enterprise DIAMO. The first aim of the thesis was to monitor the rate of radiation and to compare the gained values among individual employees of the plant MAPE Mydlovary. The monitoring of the effect of radiation was carried out from personal files of the employees and the measured values were put into tables of Excel programme. The values were then compared and I also used descriptive figures statistics. The doses at the employees were found not to exceed any dose limits. The second aim of the thesis was to evaluate the measured values at several groups of employees according to the type of the work they do. The division into individual groups was carried out according to the scale of received doses. It deals with a group of employees who worked at least for 6 months with dustiness, another group working in a sludge lagoon, another group of workers who were responsible for the main manufacture but weren´t exposed to any dustiness (according to the type of work, these people were then divided either into the first or the second sub-group) and also a group of other employees who had their own dosimeter- this group served as a comparative reference in a statistic research. The measures values were evaluated by a statistic research. For this type of research, we used a parametric testing and a so-called Fischer´s F-test, which was applied thanks the Statistics function in a table processor MS Excel 2010. For this test, we used the level of significance = 0,05. Through the statistic research, we have found out that the highest measured values appeared at the employees who were working in the main manufacture but without any dustiness. This group of people was ranked as the first group. The lowest amount of received doses appeared at the employees who worked in the main manufacture, without any dustiness and were put into the second sub-group. The hypothesis that the doses of the MAPE Mydlovary employees are different within the groups has been confirmed. The hypothesis that the doses at the MAPE Mydlovary staff didn´t exceed any dose limits for the staff has been confirmed as well. The hypothesis that the doses at the MAPE Mydlovary staff were different in certain groups was confirmed.

In 1959, the building of chemical preparation plant of uranium ore MAPE Mydlovary was initiated in a small village Mydlovary, near České Budějovice. In October 1962, the operation and processing of the uranium ore started. During operation, about 17 million tons of uranium ore were processed and the material from processed uranium ores was stored into the contiguous sludge lagoons. The operation of this plant was terminated in November 1991. The premises of MAPE Mydlovary were partially liquidated, decontaminated and handed over for privatization, nowadays there are recovery and reclamation works in process. Even though, MAPE Mydlovary is nowadays one of the most dangerous strains for environment, which emerged after mining and processing of uranium ores in the Czech Republic. The projection is to liquidate the consequences of this process for many more years from now. In immediate closeness to the premises of MAPE Mydlovary there lie the villages Mydlovary, Olešník and Zahájí. It can be assumed that during the processing of uranium ores and subsequent storing of waste into the contiguous sludge lagoons there could have been some impact on the inhabitants of these villages by radio nuclides. The possibility that there are still some sources of contamination and effect on the inhabitants of the three neighboring villages cannot be excluded nowadays, even after almost 23 years after the shutdown of the plant. For this reason this diploma thesis is dealing with the effects of the preparation plant MAPE Mydlovary on the inhabitants of Mydlovary, Olešník and Zahájí, specifically on the amount of deaths due to cancer diseases of inhabitants of these villages. Data was collected from October 2013 till April 2014 and it includes figures from the period 1971-2010. It was collected using non-standardized interviews and was provided by practicing physicians of the investigated villages; furthermore, data was collected from websites of the Czech Statistical Office. Aim of this thesis was to analyze and compare the deaths due to cancer diseases of the inhabitants in the surroundings of MAPE Mydlovary and of inhabitants in the whole Czech Republic (whole republic´s cancer disease mortality) and evaluate the possible influence of the radiation load on the number of deaths due to cancer diseases of inhabitants in the surroundings of MAPE Mydlovary. The analysis and comparison of the number of deaths was carried out using statistical research. Non parametric testing was used for the statistical research and the so called Fisher exact test was used, which is carried out by means of statistical software www.ncss.com. For this test the level of significance - = 0, 2 was used. The influence of the radiation load on the number of deaths due to cancer diseases is statistically significant only in the village Mydlovary, where it is possible to prove statistically an increased number of deaths due to cancer diseases in comparison to the number of deaths due to cancer diseases in the whole Czech Republic. Based on the evaluation of the obtained data we can state that the chemical preparation plant of uranium ore MAPE Mydlovary most likely had and still may have a negative impact on the inhabitants of the neighboring villages, especially on the inhabitants of the village Mydlovary. For this reason it is very important to continue with the recovery and reclamation works in the premises of the chemical preparation plant of uranium ore MAPE Mydlovary and their main objective is to protect the inhabitants of surrounding villages against possible exposure to the radio nuclides. Nevertheless, the impacts of processing the former chemical preparation plant of uranium ore MAPE Mydlovary will be eliminated for many more years.

Monitoring information technology (IT) systems during operation is one of the few methods that help administrators track the health of the monitored system, predict and detect faults, and assist in system repair and error prevention. However, current implementations impose architectural and functional constraints on monitored systems that result in less flexibility in deployment and operation. While excellent monitoring systems exist for some use cases, others are not adequately supported, having no monitoring system available at all for very specific use cases. In addition, most monitoring software specializes in specific data formats, protocols, data collection mechanisms, etc., further limiting its flexibility. As a result, individuals and organizations struggle to find the right combination of features to support their monitoring needs in a single monitoring system, forcing them to use multiple monitoring systems instead in order to support all of their use cases. The role-based approach to software modeling and implementation promises an intuitive way to increase flexibility in modeling and implementing IT systems. In conjunction with technology from the field of self-adaptive systems, this thesis describes a framework for context-sensitive control loops with roles that can be used to overcome these limitations. We present a novel approach to building a flexible role-based monitoring system based on that framework. Our approach allows for context-specific implementation of monitoring capabilities to support a variety of application domains, while maintaining a derived architecture of well-defined roleplaying components that inherently support distribution and scalability. To this end, important background knowledge from the areas of self-adaptive systems, control loops, the role concept, as well as role-based modeling and implementation is first presented. In addition, important related work from the areas of flexible system design and monitoring systems is presented. Then, a framework for context-sensitive control loops with roles is introduced and applied to the monitoring application domain in modeling and implementation. Based on a common use case for monitoring systems (i.e., monitoring and autoscaling of a web service infrastructure), the resulting Role-based Monitoring Approach (RBMA) is compared to two state-of-the-art monitoring toolkits. This is followed by a qualitative and quantitative evaluation of RBMA, showing that it is more flexible and, at the same time, provides reasonable performance at no additional cost compared to the state-of-the-art tools. Finally, it is explained how this thesis’ contributions can be applied to another monitoring use case (i.e., network device monitoring) as well as to another application domain (i.e., embedded systems monitoring) and its extension (i.e., the Internet of Things domain). This thesis concludes with a summary of the contributions and a presentation of important topics for future work.:Preface iv Statement of Authorship . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii The RoSI Research Training Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Thesis Topic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.2 Thesis Contributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.3 Research Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2 Background 5 2.1 Principles of Self-adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2.1.1 The MAPE-K Control Loop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 2.1.2 MAPE-K Patterns for Distributed Self-adaptive Systems . . . . . . 12 2.1.3 MAPE-K Control Loop in Monitoring Systems . . . . . . . . . . . 16 2.2 The Notion of Roles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2.3 The Compartment Role Object Meta-Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.4 The ObjectTeams Java Programming Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 2.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 3 Related Work 31 3.1 Design Patterns for Flexibility in Software . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 3.1.1 Strategy Pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 3.1.2 Template Method Pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 3.1.3 Using Delegation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 3.1.4 Role-object Pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 3.2 Classifying Flexibility in Monitoring Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 3.2.1 Criteria for Flexibility in Monitoring Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 3.2.2 Classification of Flexibility in Monitoring Systems . . . . . . . . . 44 3.3 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 4 The Role-based Monitoring Approach 47 4.1 Framework and Model for Context-sensitive Control Loops with Roles . 48 4.2 Evaluation Scenario: Autoscaling of Web Service Infrastructures . . . . . 54 4.2.1 Version 1: Role-based Monitoring Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 4.2.2 Version 2: Prometheus with Alertmanager . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 4.2.3 Version 3: Elasticsearch with Kibana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 iii Contents 4.3 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 5 Evaluation 77 5.1 Quantitative Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 5.1.1 First Experiment (Correct Functionality) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 5.1.2 Second Experiment (Idle Performance) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 5.1.3 Third Experiment (Performance under Load) . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 5.2 Qualitative Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 5.3 Additional Use Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 5.3.1 Monitoring Network Devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 5.3.2 Flexible Embedded Systems Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 5.3.3 Managing Internet of Things Devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 6 Conclusion and Future Work 95 6.1 Summary of Contributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 6.2 Topics for Future Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 Bibliography 99 List of Figures 107 List of Tables 109 List of Listings 110 List of Abbreviations 111 A Implementation, Compilation, and Execution of RBMA 113 A.1 Implementation of Base Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 A.2 Implementation of Team- and inner Role Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 A.3 Implementation of Auxiliary Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 A.4 Compilation of RBMA with Eclipse OT/J . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 A.5 Execution of RBMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 B Additional Information: Autoscaling of Web Service Infrastructures 145 B.1 Setup of the Slave-level Clusters (Versions 1, 2, and 3) . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 B.2 RBMA: Setup of the Master-level Cluster (Version 1) . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 B.3 Prometheus: Setup of Master-level Cluster (Version 2) . . . . . . . . . . . 160 B.4 Elastic Stack: Setup of the Master-level Cluster (Version 3) . . . . . . . . . 165 B.5 Auxiliary Tutorials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 C Large Figures 179

Engineering contemporary distributed software applications is a challenging task due to the dynamic operating conditions in which these systems have to function. Examples are dynamic availability of resources, errors that are difficult to predict, and changing user requirements. These dynamics can affect a number of quality concerns of a system, such as robustness, openness, and performance. The challenges of engineering software systems with such dynamics have motivated the need for self-adaptation. Self-adaptation is based on the principle of separation of concerns, distinguishing two well defined systems: a managed system that deals with domain specific concerns and a managing system that deals with particular quality concerns of the managed system through adaptation with a feedback loop. State of the art in self- adaptation advocates the use of formal methods to specify and verify the system's behavior in order to provide evidence that the system's goals are satisfied. However, little work has been done on the consolidation of design knowledge to model and verify self-adaptation behaviors. To support designers, this thesis contributes with a set of formally specified templates for the specification and verification of self-adaptive behaviors of a family of distributed self-adaptive systems. The templates are based on the MAPE-K reference model (Monitor-Analyze-Plan-Execute plus Knowledge). The templates comprise: (1) behavior specification patterns for modeling the different MAPE components of a feedback loop, and (2) property specification patterns that support verification of the correctness of the adaptation behaviors. The target domain are distributed applications in which self-adaptation is used for managing resources for robustness and openness requirements. The templates are derived from expertise with developing several self-adaptive systems, including a collaborative mobile learning application in which we have applied self-adaptation to make the system robust to degrading GPS accuracy, and a robotic system in which we apply self-adaptation to support different types of openness requirements. We demonstrate the reusability of the templates in a number of case studies. / AMULETS

It is important for a retail company to forecast its sale in correct and accurate way to be ableto plan and evaluate sales and commercial strategies. Various forecasting techniques areavailable for this purpose. Two popular modelling techniques are Predictive Modelling andEconometric Modelling. The models created by these techniques are used to minimize thedifference between the real and the predicted values. There are several different errormetrics that can be used to measure and describe the difference. Each metric focuses ondifferent properties in the forecasts and it is hence important which metrics that is used whena model is created. Most traditional techniques use the sum of squared error which havegood mathematical properties but is not always optimal for forecasting purposes. This thesisfocuses on optimization of three widely used error metrics MAPE, WMAPE and RMSE.Especially the metrics protection against overfitting, which occurs when a predictive modelcatches noise and irregularities in the data, that is not part of the sought relationship, isevaluated in this thesis.Genetic Programming, a general optimization technique based on Darwin’s theories ofevolution. In this study genetic programming is used to optimize predictive models based oneach metrics. The sales data of five products of ICA (a Swedish retail company) has beenused to observe the effects of the optimized error metrics when creating predictive models.This study shows that all three metrics are quite poorly protected against overfitting even ifWMAPE and MAPE are slightly better protected than MAPE. However WMAPE is the mostpromising metric to use for optimization of predictive models. When evaluated against allthree metrics, models optimized based on WMAPE have the best overall result. The results oftraining and test data shows that the results hold in spite of overfitted models. / Program: Magisterutbildning i informatik

Tese de mestrado. Mestrado Integrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores - Major Energia. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Porto. 2012

本文主要是利用時間數列中的轉換函數模式對國內的成交量與成交價、美國道瓊工業平均指數與台灣發行量加權股價指數及NASDAQ 指數與台灣電子類股進行研究與預測，除了找出適當的預測模式外，同時可以看出世界的經貿大國－美國對台灣所造成的影響，也可以針對"量是否先價而行"的說法加以應証。 在研究期間裡，分析的結果顯示大盤的成交量平均領先成交價兩期，電子類股與熱門股則呈現價量同期的現象，而美國股價與NASDAQ股價分別平均領先台灣股價與電子類股一期，除了從大盤的資料來分析外，也可經由重要的類股來分析股價可能的走勢，另外短期預測也有不錯的結果，這說明了美國仍 然具有其影響力，也同時應証了"量是價的先行指標"的說法，另外此三種現象，都可做為預測台灣股價指數的參考指標。 / The article utilizes the transfer function model in time series to make prediction on closing volume with closing value of the stock market, the American Dow Jones average index with the index of Taiwan stock market index, NASDAQ index with Taiwan electronic stock. In additional to discovering the appropriate prediction model, we can simultaneously see the influence of America with great economic power on Taiwan and how the concept that the volume determines the value is verified. During the process of this research, the outcome of the analysis indicates the closing volume is two times ahead of the closing value while the volume and value of the electronic and glamour stocks are changing in the same time and the American stock value and NASDAQ index are one time ahead of Taiwan electronic stock value. Besides the analysis based on the whole data, we can predict the possible futuristic stock trend. On the other hand, we can get pretty good result based on this theory, which accounts for the fact that America has some influence on Taiwan stock market and verifies the concept that the volume determines the value.. In addition, these three phenomenon can serve as the references for the prediction on the Taiwan stock index.

Communication network technologies have been evolving exponentially in the late decades. These innovations increase the network capabilities and open new horizons to creating novel and original services. The heterogeneity in equipment qualifications increases the level of complexity in the technological advancement. In such environment, service management has become an everyday challenge to service providers. Important efforts have been deployed to innovate in the exploitation of intelligent devices in the home and other private locations. In this Thesis, we propose a framework for self-configuration of devices within Hone Area Networks. We propose a device self-configuration architecture based on IBM Monitor-Analyze-Plan-Execute using Knowledge autonomic control loop. To prove the validity of our system architecture and support its applicability, we developed a prototype system that gives a general control loop implementation for device self-configuration using the CPE WAN Management Protocol. A video streaming scenario is implemented and used to evaluate validity our framework.

Communication network technologies have been evolving exponentially in the late decades. These innovations increase the network capabilities and open new horizons to creating novel and original services. The heterogeneity in equipment qualifications increases the level of complexity in the technological advancement. In such environment, service management has become an everyday challenge to service providers. Important efforts have been deployed to innovate in the exploitation of intelligent devices in the home and other private locations. In this Thesis, we propose a framework for self-configuration of devices within Hone Area Networks. We propose a device self-configuration architecture based on IBM Monitor-Analyze-Plan-Execute using Knowledge autonomic control loop. To prove the validity of our system architecture and support its applicability, we developed a prototype system that gives a general control loop implementation for device self-configuration using the CPE WAN Management Protocol. A video streaming scenario is implemented and used to evaluate validity our framework.

Communication network technologies have been evolving exponentially in the late decades. These innovations increase the network capabilities and open new horizons to creating novel and original services. The heterogeneity in equipment qualifications increases the level of complexity in the technological advancement. In such environment, service management has become an everyday challenge to service providers. Important efforts have been deployed to innovate in the exploitation of intelligent devices in the home and other private locations. In this Thesis, we propose a framework for self-configuration of devices within Hone Area Networks. We propose a device self-configuration architecture based on IBM Monitor-Analyze-Plan-Execute using Knowledge autonomic control loop. To prove the validity of our system architecture and support its applicability, we developed a prototype system that gives a general control loop implementation for device self-configuration using the CPE WAN Management Protocol. A video streaming scenario is implemented and used to evaluate validity our framework.