Many workers are daily exposed to chemical risks in their work place that has to be assessed and controlled. Due to exposure variability, repeated and random measurements should be conducted for valid estimates of the average exposure. Traditionally, experts such as safety engineers, work environment inspectors, and occupational hygienists, have performed the measurements. In self assessment of exposure (SAE), the workers perform unsupervised exposure measurements of chemical agents. This thesis studies a prerequisite for SAE, i.e. the workers’ mental models of chemical exposure. Further, the workers’ mental models are contrasted with experts’ reasons and decision criteria for measurement. Both qualitative and quantitative data generated from three studies (Paper I, II, and III) were used to describe the workers’ mental model of chemical exposure. SAE was introduced to workers in three different industries; transports (benzene), sawmill industry (monoterpenes), and reinforced plastic industry (styrene). By interviews, qualitative data were collected on the workers’ interpretation of measurement results and preventive actions. To evaluate the validity of worker measurement, the measurements were compared with expert measurements. The association between each worker’s number of performed measurement and mean level and variability in exposure concentrations was calculated. Mean absolute percent/forecast error (MAPE) was used to assess whether the workers’ decision models were in accordance with a coherence or correspondence model. In Paper IV, experts (safety engineers, work environment inspectors, and occupational hygienists) were interviewed to elucidate their mental models about the triggers and decision criteria for exposure measurements. The results indicate that the workers’ measurement results were in agreement with experts’. However, the measurement results were not a strong enough signal to induce workers to take preventive actions and sustained exposure measurements even if the measurement result were close to the occupational exposure limit. The fit was best for the median model, indicating that the workers’ mental models for interpretation of measurement data can best be described by the coherence theory rather than by the correspondence theory. The workers seemed to mentally reduce the variation in the exposure to a measure of central tendency (the median), and underestimated the average exposure level. The experts were found to directly take preventive actions instead of performing exposure measurements. When they performed exposure measurements, a worst case sampling strategy was most common. An important trigger for measurement for the experts was “request from the employer” (safety engineers), “legal demands” (work environment inspectors), and “symptoms among workers” (occupational hygienists). When there was a trigger, all experts mentioned expectations of high exposure level as a decision criterion for measurements. In conclusion, the studies suggest that workers’ mental interpretation model is best described in terms of a coherence model rather than a model of correspondence. The workers reduced the variation mentally in favor of an estimate of average exposure (median), which may imply that they underestimate short-term, high exposure health risks. A consequence is that interpretation of measurements such as SAE cannot be given to the individual worker without some support, e.g. from an expert. However, experts often chose to directly take preventive actions, without measuring the exposure. The results indicate that also the experts need support e.g. from the legal system if exposure measurements are to be done.

Possible risks of using radioactive materials are a highly discussed topic nowadays. This work is dealing with this problem and it is focused on possible risks of using radioactive materials from the ex-treatment plant of uranium ores MAPE Mydlovary. In introductory chapters I am describing the current state of ex-treatment plant of uranium ores. I am dealing with the history of operation of MAPE, information about sludge lagoons and about stored sediments in them and other characteristics concerning this operation. For years, sediments in which radionuclides are contained have been stored in treatment plants and that is why I am dealing with ionizing radiation. Because the topic is the using of radioactive materials which can be used mainly by terrorists, I am also describing this worldwide phenomenon of recent years where I first of all focused on super-terrorism using radioactive weapons, namely so-called ?dirty bombs?. The target of this work is to find out possibilities of using radioactive materials from the ex-treatment plant. Therefore I measured values of radioactivity and exposition of radiation at some places with the help of exploratory research. That meant sampling of soils and water and also measurement of power of dose equivalent of radiation gamma. After gathering information of needed radiation values I carried out simulation of possible using of radioactive materials from the premises MAPE. By means of dirty bomb I used the programme TerEx at using radioactive material. Then I carried out several calculations which were focused on inhalation, ingestion or outdoor radiation from radioactive materials and also calculation how much it is necessary to gain a significant source of ionizing radiation. From these sources I have deduced impacts for individuals, society or environment. Based on analysis and evaluation of given problems, my set hypothesis ?By using radioactive materials from the ex-treatment plant of uranium ores MAPE Mydlovary a serious threat to people will not occur? was confirmed. Results of my work can be used as a study material for completing and broadening knowledge about risks resulting from using radioactive materials. Further an increase of foreknowledge and explanation of certain consequences of ionizing radiation on humans from materials from the ex-treatment plant of uranium ores MAPE Mydlovary, for inhabitants of Mydlovary and surrounding areas and also useful information for lay and professional society which is interested in these problems.

Since 1986 extensive reclamation works have taken place in the area. Aim of this works is to mend the damaged environment, eliminate impact of uranium processing, reduce contamination of ground water and radiation effects on the area. However after 29 years of reclamation works, risks of chemical and radiation toxicity are still present. Massive development of uranium mining occurred at the beginning of 20th century. Czech republic was not an exception and czech government decided to build chemical processing plant of uranium under a code name MAPE. chemical processing plantwas built near village Mydlovary, in the southeaster part of Czech republic. Construction began in 1959. Operation started in 1962. Uranium was processed either by acidic or alkalic leaching. During the operation of the plant 36 million tons of sludge were stored in nearby sludge beds. Operation of MAPE ended in the year 1991. This thesis focuses on problems of chemical toxicity in former uranium processing plant MAPE Mydlovary and nearby area. Primary aim was to assess potential risks of chemical toxicity resulting from MAPE operation which could influence health of former employees, citizens of nearby villages and the environment. In order to determine the risks it was necessary to analyse chemical substances used to process uranium, possible signs of uranium intoxication of living organisms, quality and direction of ground water flow in wider area of interest. Among substances used to process uranium were different kinds of gasoline, diesel, ammonia, nitric acid, sulphuric acids and its salts, sodium carbonate and barium chloride dyhydrate. In comparison to dangerousness of particular substances it was found that most occurring types of damage are types of damage to skin or eyes due to irritant or caustic effects. It was difficult to analyse the influence of uranium intoxication on living organisms because of limited availability of useful and relevant information . Therefore assessment of possible effects were established as the result of previous studies. Former employees of MAPE could have been exposed to several kinds of uranium compounds (UO2, UO3, (NH4)2U2O7), therefore effects of intoxication by these compounds were taken into the consideration. Most cases of chemical intoxication were localized in the renal and respiratory systems of living organisms. Ground waters of wider area of interest were estimated as main carrier of potential chemical intoxication of residents of nearby villages and environment. Analysis of quality and direction of spreading showed that villages close to processing plant can use ground water only for irrigation (in the village Mydlovary ground water cannot be used even for irrigation) . Furthermore there is a small risk of contamination of collecting borehole S4 near the city of Zliv. Water from this borehole is drinkable and worsening of the quality of this water could result in exceeding limits set by decree no. 274/2003. Nowadays former chemical processing plant of uranium MAPE Mydlovary represents one of the most severe ecological burdens in Czech republic. Reclamation works significantly reduce negative impacts of chemical processing plantand without these works present situation would pose both real threat to ecology and protection of public health.

In the field of aviation forecasting is used, among other things, to determine the number of passengers to expect for each flight. This is beneficial in the practice of revenue management, as the forecast is used as a base when setting the price for each flight. In this study, a forecast evaluation has been done on seven different routes with a total of 61 different flights, using four different methods. These are: Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Tracking Signal, and a goodness of fit test to determine if the forecast errors are normally distributed. The MASE has been used to determine if the passenger forecasts are better or worse than a naïve forecast, while the MAPE provides an error value for internal comparisons between the flights. The Tracking Signal and the normal distribution test have been used in order to determine whether a flight has bias or not towards under- or overforecasting. The results point towards a general underforecast across all studied flights. A total of 89 % of the forecasts perform better than the naïve forecast, with an average MASE value of 0,78. As such, the forecast accuracy is better than that of the naïve forecast. There are however large error values among the observed flights, affecting the MAPE average. The MAPE average is 38,53 % while the median is 30,60 %. The measure can be used for internal comparisons, and one such way is to use the average value as a benchmark in order to focus on improving those forecasts with a higher than average MAPE. The authors have found that the MASE and MAPE are useful in measuring forecast accuracy and as such the recommendation of the authors is that these two error measures can be used together to evaluate forecast accuracy at frequent intervals. In addition to this there is value in examining the error distribution in conjunction with the Mean Error when searching for bias, as this will indicate if there is systematic error present.

Communication network technologies have been evolving exponentially in the late decades. These innovations increase the network capabilities and open new horizons to creating novel and original services. The heterogeneity in equipment qualifications increases the level of complexity in the technological advancement. In such environment, service management has become an everyday challenge to service providers. Important efforts have been deployed to innovate in the exploitation of intelligent devices in the home and other private locations. In this Thesis, we propose a framework for self-configuration of devices within Hone Area Networks. We propose a device self-configuration architecture based on IBM Monitor-Analyze-Plan-Execute using Knowledge autonomic control loop. To prove the validity of our system architecture and support its applicability, we developed a prototype system that gives a general control loop implementation for device self-configuration using the CPE WAN Management Protocol. A video streaming scenario is implemented and used to evaluate validity our framework.

<p>У раду је испитивано когнитивно оптерећење ученика седмог разреда из две основне школе: &bdquo;Ђорђе Натошевић&ldquo; у Новом Саду и &bdquo;Мирослав Антић&ldquo; у Футогу. Извршено је иницијално тестирање и формиране су двегрупе: експериментална и контролна, за спровођење експеримента са паралелним групама. Пре увођења експерименталног фактора, дат је иницијални тест за ученике који су били распоређени у Е (експерименталну) и К (контролну) групу. Експериментални фактор су биле мапе ума које су карактерисале не-традиционалан метод рада у експерименталној групи, а традиционални метод рада је био заступљен у<br />контролној групи. У експерименту је учествовало 113 ученика.Резултати су показали да су ученици експерименталне групе постигли веће постигнуће на финалном тестирању него ученици контролне групе.Ученици експерименталне групе су у већој<br />мери перцепирали мањи ментални напор, него ученици контролне групе.<br />Израчуната инструкциона ефикасност и инструкциона ангажованост ученика су<br />много повољније у експерименталној него контролној групи.Резултати овог рада од значаја су наставницима физике који преферирају употребу мапа ума у школама на својим часовима, и дају потпунији увид у метод употребе мапа ума на часовима физике.</p> / <p>U radu je ispitivano kognitivno opterećenje učenika sedmog razreda iz dve osnovne škole: &bdquo;Đorđe Natošević&ldquo; u Novom Sadu i &bdquo;Miroslav Antić&ldquo; u Futogu. Izvršeno je inicijalno testiranje i formirane su dvegrupe: eksperimentalna i kontrolna, za sprovođenje eksperimenta sa paralelnim grupama. Pre uvođenja eksperimentalnog faktora, dat je inicijalni test za učenike koji su bili raspoređeni u E (eksperimentalnu) i K (kontrolnu) grupu. Eksperimentalni faktor su bile mape uma koje su karakterisale ne-tradicionalan metod rada u eksperimentalnoj grupi, a tradicionalni metod rada je bio zastupljen u<br />kontrolnoj grupi. U eksperimentu je učestvovalo 113 učenika.Rezultati su pokazali da su učenici eksperimentalne grupe postigli veće postignuće na finalnom testiranju nego učenici kontrolne grupe.Učenici eksperimentalne grupe su u većoj<br />meri percepirali manji mentalni napor, nego učenici kontrolne grupe.<br />Izračunata instrukciona efikasnost i instrukciona angažovanost učenika su<br />mnogo povoljnije u eksperimentalnoj nego kontrolnoj grupi.Rezultati ovog rada od značaja su nastavnicima fizike koji preferiraju upotrebu mapa uma u školama na svojim časovima, i daju potpuniji uvid u metod upotrebe mapa uma na časovima fizike.</p> / <p>The paper examines the cognitive load of students of the&nbsp; seventh grade from two primary schools: &quot;ĐordjeNato&scaron;ević&quot; in Novi Sad and &quot;Miroslav Antić&quot; in Futog. Initial testing was performed and two groups were formed: experimental and control, for the implementation of the experiment with parallel groups. Prior to the introduction of the experimental factor, an initial test was given for students who were divided in E (experimental) and K (control) groups.The experimental factor was the mind maps that characterized the non-traditional method of work in the experimental group, and the traditional method of work was represented in the control group. 113 students participated in the experiment. The results showed that the students of the experimental group achieved higher achievement in the final testthan the control group students. Experimental group students were more likely to perceive less mental effort, than students of the control group.The calculated instructional efficiency and instructional engagement of students are much more favorable in the experimental than the control group. The results of this work are important to physics teachers who prefer the use of mind maps in schoolsat their classes, and give a more complete insight into the method of using mind maps in physics classes.</p>

The project aims to propose MAPE based hybrid elasticity management framework on the basis of valuable insights accrued during systematic analysis of relevant literature. Each stage of MAPE process acts independently as a black box in proposed framework, while dealing with neighbouring stages. Thus, being modular in nature; underlying algorithms in any of the stage can be replaced with more suitable ones, without affecting any other stage. The hybrid framework enables proactive and reactive autoscaling approaches to be implemented simultaneously within same system. Proactive approach is incorporated as a core decision making logic on the basis of forecast data, while reactive approach being based upon actual data would act as a damage control measure; activated only in case of any problem with proactive approach. Thus, benefits of both the worlds; pre-emption as well as reliability can be achieved through proposed framework. It uses time series analysis (moving average method / exponential smoothing) and threshold based static rules (with multiple monitoring intervals and dual threshold settings) during analysis and planning phases of MAPE loop, respectively. Mathematical illustration of the framework incorporates multiple parameters namely VM initiation delay / release criterion, network latency, system oscillations, threshold values, smart kill etc. The research concludes that recommended parameter settings primarily depend upon certain autoscaling objective and are often conflicting in nature. Thus, no single autoscaling system with similar values can possibly meet all objectives simultaneously, irrespective of reliability of an underlying framework. The project successfully implements complete cloud infrastructure and autoscaling environment over experimental platforms i-e OpenStack and CloudSim Plus. In nutshell, the research provides solid understanding of autoscaling phenomenon, devises MAPE based hybrid elasticity management framework and explores its implementation potential over OpenStack and CloudSim Plus.

No description available.

Les opérateurs de cloud IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service) proposent à leurs clients des ressources virtualisées (CPU, stockage et réseau) sous forme de machines virtuelles (VM). L’explosion du marché du cloud les a contraints à optimiser très finement l’utilisation de leurs centres de données afin de proposer des services attractifs à moindre coût. En plus des investissements liés à l’achat des infrastructures et de leur coût d’utilisation, la consommation énergétique apparaît comme un point de dépense important (2% de la consommation mondiale) et en constante augmentation. Sa maîtrise représente pour ces opérateurs un levier très intéressant à exploiter. D’un point de vue technique, le contrôle de la consommation énergétique s’appuie essentiellement sur les méthodes de consolidation. Or la plupart d'entre elles ne prennent en compte que l’utilisation CPU des machines physiques (PM) pour le placement de VM. En effet, des études récentes ont montré que les systèmes de stockage et les E/S disque constituent une part considérable de la consommation énergétique d’un centre de données (entre 14% et 40%). Dans cette thèse nous introduisons un nouveau modèle autonomique d’optimisation de placement de VM inspiré de MAPE-K (Monitor, Analyze, Plan, Execute, Knowledge), et prenant en compte en plus du CPU, les E/S des VM ainsi que les systèmes de stockage associés. Ainsi, notre première contribution est relative au développement d’un outil de trace des E/S de VM multi-niveaux. Les traces collectées alimentent, dans l’étape Analyze, un modèle de coût étendu dont l’originalité consiste à prendre en compte le profil d’accès des VM, les caractéristiques du système de stockage, ainsi que les contraintes économiques de l’environnement cloud. Nous analysons par ailleurs les caractéristiques des deux principales classes de stockage, pour aboutir à un modèle hybride exploitant au mieux les avantages de chacune. En effet, les disques durs magnétiques (HDD) sont des supports de stockage à la fois énergivores et peu performants comparés aux unités de calcul. Néanmoins, leur prix par gigaoctet et leur longévité peuvent jouer en leur faveur. Contrairement aux HDD, les disques SSD à base de mémoire flash sont plus performants et consomment peu d’énergie. Leur prix élevé par gigaoctet et leur courte durée de vie (comparés aux HDD) représentent leurs contraintes majeures. L’étape Plan a donné lieu, d’une part, à une extension de l'outil de simulation CloudSim pour la prise en compte des E/S des VM, du caractère hybride du système de stockage, ainsi que la mise en oeuvre du modèle de coût proposé dans l'étape Analyze. Nous avons proposé d’autre part, plusieurs heuristiques se basant sur notre modèle de coût et que nous avons intégrées dans CloudSim. Nous montrons finalement que notre approche permet d’améliorer d’un facteur trois le coût de placement de VM obtenu par les approches existantes. / IaaS cloud providers offer virtualized resources (CPU, storage, and network) as Virtual Machines(VM). The growth and highly competitive nature of this economy has compelled them to optimize the use of their data centers, in order to offer attractive services at a lower cost. In addition to investments related to infrastructure purchase and cost of use, energy efficiency is a major point of expenditure (2% of world consumption) and is constantly increasing. Its control represents a vital opportunity. From a technical point of view, the control of energy consumption is mainly based on consolidation approaches. These approaches, which exclusively take into account the CPU use of physical machines (PM) for the VM placement, present however many drawbacks. Indeed, recent studies have shown that storage systems and disk I/O represent a significant part of the data center energy consumption (between 14% and 40%).In this thesis we propose a new autonomic model for VM placement optimization based on MAPEK (Monitor, Analyze, Plan, Execute, Knowledge) whereby in addition to CPU, VM I/O and related storage systems are considered. Our first contribution proposes a multilevel VM I/O tracer which overcomes the limitations of existing I/O monitoring tools. In the Analyze step, the collected I/O traces are introduced in a cost model which takes into account the VM I/O profile, the storage system characteristics, and the cloud environment constraints. We also analyze the complementarity between the two main storage classes, resulting in a hybrid storage model exploiting the advantages of each. Indeed, Hard Disk Drives (HDD) represent energy-intensive and inefficient devices compared to compute units. However, their low cost per gigabyte and their long lifetime may constitute positive arguments. Unlike HDD, flash-based Solid-State Disks (SSD) are more efficient and consume less power, but their high cost per gigabyte and their short lifetime (compared to HDD) represent major constraints. The Plan phase has initially resulted in an extension of CloudSim to take into account VM I/O, the hybrid nature of the storage system, as well as the implementation of the previously proposed cost model. Secondly, we proposed several heuristics based on our cost model, integrated and evaluated using CloudSim. Finally, we showed that our contribution improves existing approaches of VM placement optimization by a factor of three.

[pt] Nos últimos anos, foi desenvolvido um número significativo de sistemas autoadaptativos (i.e.: sistemas capazes de saber o que está acontecendo sobre si mesmo e que, consequentemente, implementam parcialmente a qualidade de consciência). A literatura tem pesquisado extensivamente o uso da engenharia de requisitos orientada a metas e o uso da arquitetura de referência MAPE (Monitor-Analyze-Plan-Execute) para o desenvolvimento de sistemas autoadaptativos. Entretanto, construir tais sistemas com base em estratégias de referência não é trivial, podendo resultar em problemas estruturais que impactam negativamente alguns atributos de qualidade do produto final (e.g.: reusabilidade, modularidade, modificabilidade e entendibilidade). Neste contexto, estratégias de reengenharia para a reorganização de tais sistemas são pouco exploradas, limitando-se a recuperar e a reestruturar a lógica da adaptação em modelos de baixo nível. Esta prática mantém a dificuldade do tratamento da qualidade de consciência como um requisito não funcional (RNF) de primeira classe, impactando diretamente na seleção da arquite-tura e implementação do sistema. Nossa pesquisa visa mitigar esse problema atra-vés de uma estratégia de reengenharia de sistemas autoadaptativos, centrada no RNF de consciência de software, com vistas a auxiliar na remoção de alguns problemas recorrentes na implementação do MAPE conforme a literatura. A estratégia de reengenharia está organizada em quatro subprocessos: (A) recuperar a intencio-nalidade do sistema com ênfase em suas metas de consciência, gerando um modelo de metas AS-IS; (B) especificar o modelo de metas TO-BE reutilizando um conjunto de SRconstructs para operacionalizar o RNF de consciência de software conforme o padrão MAPE; (C) redesenhar o sistema revisando as operacionalizações de consciência e selecionando as tecnologias para implementar o MAPE, e; (D) finalmente, reimplementar o sistema conforme nova estrutura, adicionando metainformações de código para manter a rastreabilidade para o mecanismo de autoadaptação visando facilitar novas evoluções. O escopo da nossa pesquisa são sistemas autoadaptativos orientados a objetos (OO), utilizando o framework i como linguagem para os modelos orientados a metas. Nossos resultados de avaliações em sistemas auto-adaptativos OO desenvolvidos em Java para dispositivos móveis com Android demonstram que a estratégia auxilia no realinhamento do sistema com as boas práticas recomendadas pela literatura facilitando futuras evoluções. / [en] In recent years, a significant number of self-adaptive systems (i.e.: systems capable of knowing what is happening about themselves, and consequently partially implementing the quality of awareness) have been developed. The literature has extensively researched the use of goal oriented requirements engineering and the use of the MAPE (Monitor-Analyze-Plan-Execute) reference architecture for the development of self-adaptive systems. However, building such systems based on reference strategies is not trivial, it can result in structural problems that negatively impact some quality attributes of the final product (e.g.: reusability, modularity, modifiability and understandability). In this context, reengineering strategies for the reorganization of such systems are poor explored, and they are limited to recovering and restructuring the logic of adaptation in low-level models. This approach keeps the difficulty of treating the awareness quality as a first-class non-functional re-quirement (NFR) directly affecting architecture selection and implementation of the system. Our research aims to mitigate this problem through a strategy of reengi-neering self-adaptive systems, centered on software awareness as an NFR. This strategy will assist in the removal of some recurring problems in the implementation of MAPE according to the literature. The reengineering strategy is organized into four sub-processes: (A) recover the intentionality of the system with an emphasis on its awareness goals, generating an AS-IS goal model; (B) specify the TO-BE goal model by reusing a set of SRconstructs to operationalize the software awareness NFR according to the MAPE standard; (C) redesign the system by reviewing the operationalizations of awareness and selecting the technologies to implement the MAPE, and; (D) finally, reimplement the system according to a new structure, add-ing code metadata to maintain traceability for the self-adaptation mechanism in or-der to facilitate new evolutions. The scope of our research is object-oriented (OO) self-adaptive systems using the i framework as a language for goal-oriented models. Our results of evaluations, for OO self-adaptive systems developed in Java for mobile devices with Android, show that the strategy helps in realigning the system with the best practices recommended by the, facilitating future developments.