This thesis contributes to two completely unrelated debates in the economic literature, similar only in the relatively high degree of controversy characterizing each one. The first part is methodological and macroeconomic in nature, addressing the question of whether the distribution of income across countries is converging (i.e. are the poor catching up to the rich?) or diverging (i.e. are we witnessing the formation of two exclusive clubs, one for poor countries and another one for rich countries?). Applications of the simple Markov model to this question have generated evidence in favor of the divergence hypothesis. In the first chapter, I critically review these results. I use statistical inference to show that the divergence results are not statistically robust, and I explain that this instability of the results comes from the application of a model for discrete data to data that is actually continuous. In the second chapter, I reposition the whole convergence-divergence debate by placing it in the context of Silverman’s classic survey of non-parametric density estimation techniques. This allows me to use the basic notions of fuzzy logic to adapt the simple Markov chain model to continuous data. When I apply the newly adapted Markov chain model to the cross-country distribution question, I find evidence against the divergence hypothesis, and this evidence is statistically robust. The second part of the thesis is empirical and microeconomic in nature. I question whether observed differences between husbands’ and wives’ participation in labor markets are due to different preferences or to different constraints. My identification strategy is based on the idea that the more power an individual has relative to his/her partner, the more his/her actions will reflect his/her preferences. I use 2001 PSID data on cohabiting couples to estimate a simultaneous equations model of the spousal time allocation decision. My results confirm the stylized fact that specialization and trade does not explain time allocation for couples in which the wife is the primary breadwinner, and suggest that power could provide a more general explanation of the observations. My results show that wives with relatively more power choose to work more on the labor market and less at home, whereas husbands with more power choose to do the opposite. Since women start out from a lower level of labor market participation than men do, it would seem that spouses’ agree that the ideal mix of market work and housework lies somewhere between the husbands’ and the wives’ current positions.

The theory of Gibbs measures belongs to the borderlandbetween statistical mechanics and probability theory. In thiscontext, the physical phenomenon of phase transitioncorresponds to the mathematical concept of non-uniqueness for acertain type of probability measures. The most studied model in statistical mechanics is thecelebrated Ising model. The Potts model is a natural extensionof the Ising model, and the beach model, which appears in adifferent mathematical context, is in certain respectsanalogous to the Ising model. The two main parts of this thesisdeal with the Potts model and the beach model,respectively. For theq-state Potts model on an infinite lattice, there areq+1 basic Gibbs measures: one wired-boundary measure foreach state and one free-boundary measure. For infinite trees,we construct "new" invariant Gibbs measures that are not convexcombinations of the basic measures above. To do this, we use anextended version of the random-cluster model together withcoupling techniques. Furthermore, we investigate the rootmagnetization as a function of the inverse temperature.Critical exponents to this function for different parametercombinations are computed. The beach model, which was introduced by Burton and Steif,has many features in common with the Ising model. We generalizesome results for the Ising model to the beach model, such asthe connection between phase transition and a certain agreementpercolation event. We go on to study aq-state variant of the beach model. Using randomclustermodel methods again we obtain some results on where in theparameter space this model exhibits phase transition. Finallywe study the beach model on regular infinite trees as well.Critical values are estimated with iterative numerical methods.In different parameter regions we see indications of both firstand second order phase transition. Keywords and phrases:Potts model, beach model,percolation, randomcluster model, Gibbs measure, coupling,Markov chains on infinite trees, critical exponent.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited. / High-resolution combat simulations that model urban combat currently use computationally expensive algorithms to represent urban target acquisition at the entity level. While this may be suitable for small-scale urban combat scenarios, simulation run time can become unacceptably long for larger scenarios. Consequently, there is a need for models that can lend insight into target acquisition in urban terrain for largescale scenarios in an acceptable length of time. This research develops urban target acquisition models that can be substituted for existing physicsbased or computationally expensive combat simulation algorithms and result in faster simulation run time with an acceptable loss of aggregate simulation accuracy. Specifically, this research explores (1) the adaptability of probability of line of sight estimates to urban terrain; (2) how cumulative distribution functions can be used to model the outcomes when a set of sensors is employed against a set of targets; (3) the uses for Markov Chains and Event Graphs to model the transition of a target among acquisition states; and (4) how a system of differential equations may be used to model the aggregate flow of targets from one acquisition state to another. / Captain, United States Marine Corps

La théorie des processus de branchement multi-type en environnement i.i.d. est considérablement moins développée que dans le cas univarié, et les questions fondamentales ne sont pas résolues en totalité à ce jour. Les réponses exigent une compréhension profonde du comportement des produits des matrices i.i.d. à coefficients positifs. Sous des hypothèses assez générales et lorsque les fonctions génératrices de probabilité des lois de reproduction sont “linéaire fractionnaires”, nous montrons que la probabilité de survie à l’instant n du processus de branchement multi-type en environnement aléatoire est proportionnelle à 1/√n lorsque n → ∞. La démonstration de ce résultat suit l’approche développée pour étudier les processus de branchement uni-variés en environnement aléatoire i. i. d. Il utilise de façon cruciale des résultats récents portant sur les fluctuations des normes de produits de matrices aléatoires i.i.d. / The theory of multi-type branching process in i.i.d. environment is considerably less developed than for the univariate case, and fundamental questions are up to date unsolved. Answers demand a solid understanding of the behavior of products of i.i.d. matrices with non-negative entries. Under mild assumptions, when the probability generating functions of the reproduction laws are fractional-linear, the survival probability of the multi-type branching process in random environment up to moment n is proportional to 1/√n as n → ∞. Techniques for univariate branching process in random environment and methods from the theory of products of i.i.d. random matrices are required.

Os Sistemas Lineares Sujeitos a Saltos Markovianos têm sido amplamente estudados nas últimas décadas pois fornecem modelos adequados para aplicações com mudanças bruscas de comportamento, possivelmente devido à falhas. Também é muito comum em aplicações do mundo real em que o chamado estado do sistema não seja observado de forma perfeita e instantânea. Com essa motivação, consideramos o problema linear quadrático e propomos um controlador independente da variável de salto, que é um componente de estado, o que é atraente para aplicações reais. Utilizamos dois métodos clássicos, Genético e Gradiente, e propomos derivados que combinam características favoráveis de ambos. Também consideramos o caso em que não observamos o estado de Markov diretamente, mas através de uma variável, um sensor, que provê informação sobre este parâmetro. / Markov Jump Linear Systems have been extensively studied in the last decades as they provide suitable models for applications featuring abrupt changes of behaviour. It is also quite common in real world applications that the so called state of the system is not perfectly and immediately observed. With this motivation, we consider the linear quadratic jump problem and we propose a controller that is irrespective of the jump variable (a component os the state), which is appealing for real world problems. We use classical Genetic and Gradient optimization methods and we propose variants combining favorable features of both of them; We also consider the case which we do not have direct access on the Markovian jump parameter, but a variable, a sensor, which provides information on this parameter.

This thesis deals with discrete-time Markov jump linear systems (MJLS) with Markov chain in a general Borel space S. Several control issues have been addressed for this class of dynamic systems, including stochastic stability (SS), linear quadratic (LQ) optimal control synthesis, fllter design and a separation principle. Necessary and sffcient conditions for SS have been derived. It was shown that SS is equivalent to the spectral radius of an operator being less than 1 or to the existence of a solution to a \\Lyapunov-like\" equation. Based on the SS concept, the finite- and infinite-horizon LQ optimal control problems were tackled. The solution to the finite- (infinite-)horizon LQ optimal control problem was derived from the associated control S-coupled Riccati difference (algebraic) equations. By S-coupled it is meant that the equations are coupled via an integral over a transition probability kernel having a density with respect to a in-finite measure on the Borel space S. The design of linear Markov jump filters was analyzed and a solution to the finite- (infinite-)horizon filtering problem was obtained based on the associated filtering S-coupled Riccati difference (algebraic) equations. Conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a stabilizing positive semi-definite solution to the control and filtering S-coupled algebraic Riccati equations have also been derived. Finally a separation principle for discrete-time MJLS with Markov chain in a general state space was obtained. It was shown that the optimal controller for a partial information optimal control problem separates the partial information control problem into two problems, one associated with a filtering problem and the other associated with an optimal control problem with complete information. It is expected that the results obtained in this thesis may motivate further research on discrete-time MJLS with Markov chain in a general state space. / Esta tese trata de sistemas lineares com saltos markovianos (MJLS) a tempo discreto com cadeia de Markov em um espaço geral de Borel S. Vários problemas de controle foram abordados para esta classe de sistemas dinâmicos, incluindo estabilidade estocástica (SS), síntese de controle ótimo linear quadrático (LQ), projeto de filtros e um princípio da separação. Condições necessárias e suficientes para a SS foram obtidas. Foi demonstrado que SS é equivalente ao raio espectral de um operador ser menor que 1 ou à existência de uma solução para uma equação de Lyapunov. Os problemas de controle ótimo a horizonte finito e infinito foram abordados com base no conceito de SS. A solução para o problema de controle ótimo LQ a horizonte finito (infinito) foi obtida a partir das associadas equações a diferenças (algébricas) de Riccati S-acopladas de controle. Por S-acopladas entende-se que as equações são acopladas por uma integral sobre o kernel estocástico com densidade de transição em relação a uma medida in-finita no espaço de Borel S. O projeto de filtros lineares markovianos foi analisado e uma solução para o problema da filtragem a horizonte finito (infinito) foi obtida com base nas associadas equações a diferenças (algébricas) de Riccati S-acopladas de filtragem. Condições para a existência e unicidade de uma solução positiva semi-definida e estabilizável para as equações algébricas de Riccati S-acopladas associadas aos problemas de controle e filtragem também foram obtidas. Por último, foi estabelecido um princípio da separação para MJLS a tempo discreto com cadeia de Markov em um espaço de estados geral. Foi demonstrado que o controlador ótimo para um problema de controle ótimo com informação parcial separa o problema de controle com informação parcial em dois problemas, um deles associado a um problema de filtragem e o outro associado a um problema de controle ótimo com informação completa. Espera-se que os resultados obtidos nesta tese possam motivar futuras pesquisas sobre MJLS a tempo discreto com cadeia de Markov em um espaço de estados geral.

In this thesis, we present some contributions to the Markov jump linear systems theory in a context of partial information on the Markov chain. We consider that the state of the Markov chain cannot be measured, but instead there is only an observed variable that could model an asynchronous phenomenon between the application and the plant, or a simple fault detection and isolation device. In this formulation, we investigate the problem of designing controllers and filters depending only on the observed variable in the context of H2, H?, and mixed H2/H? control theory. Numerical examples and academic applications are presented for active-fault tolerant control systems and networked control systems. / Nesta tese, apresentamos algumas contribuições para a teoria de sistemas lineares com saltos markovianos em um contexto de observação parcial da cadeia de Markov. Consideramos que o estado da cadeia de Markov não pode ser medido, porém existe uma variável observada que pode modelar um fenômeno assíncrono entre a aplicação e a planta, ou ainda um dispositivo de detecção de falhas simples. Através desse modelo, investigamos o problema da síntese de controladores e filtros que dependem somente da variável observada no contexto das teorias de controle H2, H?, e misto H2/H?. Exemplos numéricos e aplicações acadêmicas são apresentadas no âmbito dos sistemas de controle tolerantes a falhas e dos sistemas de controle através da rede.

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2017-05-29T11:43:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Leonardo Jantsch_.pdf: 653935 bytes, checksum: 68ed1b170adfa489130eb6ea553f2c75 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-29T11:43:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Leonardo Jantsch_.pdf: 653935 bytes, checksum: 68ed1b170adfa489130eb6ea553f2c75 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-22 / Nenhuma / O objetivo deste trabalho foi mensurar a probabilidade de atraso nos pagamentos e posterior inadimplência como medida de análise do risco de crédito e de suporte a tomada de decisão em empréstimos de cartão de crédito para pessoas físicas em instituição financeira comercial. Como método de pesquisa buscou-se no Design Science Research a base para a prescrição de soluções e construção de artefatos, sendo que as análises foram efetivadas utilizando-se das cadeias de Markov. Os resultados encontrados evidenciam que indivíduos se comportam de forma distinta em termos de utilização e manutenção das carteiras, o que permite atribuir características próprias aos usuários de maior risco pelos atributos selecionados neste estudo. A principal contribuição deste trabalho está em evidenciar que o processo de entendimento prévio, contemplando o levantamento dos requisitos de negócio, necessidade de dados, tratamento de dados, modelagem, avaliação e implementação, pode se tornar um fator de sucesso no momento de definição e aplicação das análises de perfil por meio das cadeias de Markov. / The objective of this study was to measure the probability of late payment and subsequent delinquency as a measure of credit risk analysis and support decision making in credit card loans to individuals in a commercial financial institution. As a research method, Design Science Research was the basis for the prescription of solutions and the construction of artifacts, and the analyzes were carried out using Markov chains. The results show that individuals behave differently in terms of the use and maintenance of the portfolios, which allows to assign characteristics of the users of higher risk to the attributes selected in this study. The main contribution of this work is to show that the process of prior understanding, contemplating the survey of business requirements, data requirements, data processing, modeling, evaluation and implementation, can become a success factor when defining and applying of the profile analyzes through the Markov chains.

Esta dissertação aborda o problema de redução do consumo de combustível para veículos. Com esse objetivo, realiza-se o levantamento de um modelo estocástico e de seus parâmetros, o desenvolvimento de um controlador para o veículo, e análise dos resultados. O problema considera a interação com o trânsito de outros veículos, que limita a aplicação de resultados antes disponíveis. Para isto, propõe-se modelar a dinâmica do problema de maneira aproximada, usando sistemas com saltos markovianos, e levantar as probabilidades de transição dos estados da cadeia através de um modelo mais completo para o trânsito no percurso. / This dissertation deals with control of vehicles aiming at the fuel consumption optimization, taking into account the interference of traffic. Stochastic interferences like this and other real world phenomena prevents us from directly applying available results. We propose to employ a relatively simple system with Markov jumping parameters as a model for the vehicle subject to traffic interference, and to obtain the transition probabilities from a separate model for the traffic. This dissertation presents the model identification, the solution of the new problem using dynamic programming, and simulation of the obtained control.

In this thesis, we present some contributions to the Markov jump linear systems theory in a context of partial information on the Markov chain. We consider that the state of the Markov chain cannot be measured, but instead there is only an observed variable that could model an asynchronous phenomenon between the application and the plant, or a simple fault detection and isolation device. In this formulation, we investigate the problem of designing controllers and filters depending only on the observed variable in the context of H2, H?, and mixed H2/H? control theory. Numerical examples and academic applications are presented for active-fault tolerant control systems and networked control systems. / Nesta tese, apresentamos algumas contribuições para a teoria de sistemas lineares com saltos markovianos em um contexto de observação parcial da cadeia de Markov. Consideramos que o estado da cadeia de Markov não pode ser medido, porém existe uma variável observada que pode modelar um fenômeno assíncrono entre a aplicação e a planta, ou ainda um dispositivo de detecção de falhas simples. Através desse modelo, investigamos o problema da síntese de controladores e filtros que dependem somente da variável observada no contexto das teorias de controle H2, H?, e misto H2/H?. Exemplos numéricos e aplicações acadêmicas são apresentadas no âmbito dos sistemas de controle tolerantes a falhas e dos sistemas de controle através da rede.