Hace tan solo unos años se introdujo el euro como moneda de pleno derecho en once países de la Unión Europea. Sin embargo, a lo largo del tiempo, este proyecto se ha enfrentado a diversos obstáculos, y uno de los más relevantes es el no conocer precisamente el efecto que la Unión Monetaria podría tener en las economías de la región. Las tasas de interés son variables fundamentales en el desempeño coyuntural de cualquier nación, por lo que su manejo por parte del Banco Central implica consecuencias importantes. A partir del mes de Enero de 1999, la difícil tarea de fijar los tipos de interés comunes para todos los países miembros de la Zona Monetaria Europea, independientemente sus características particulares, está a cargo del Banco Central Europeo. En esta investigación se busca determinar las variables más importantes que afectan el comportamiento de las tasas de interés, y al mismo tiempo saber que efecto ha ocasionado la introducción del euro en las mismas, por lo que el trabajo se ha dividido en dos partes. En la primera parte se estudian diversas ecuaciones, creadas con base en ciertas teorías relacionadas con el tema (Akthar 1987, Fischer 1990, Cohen y Wennigen 1994, Lee y Prasad 1994, Patterson 1999, Haley 2000.) por lo que se obtienen las variables más significativas en cada una de ellas. En la segunda parte se analizan las variables de la primera parte, y se definen cuales fueron afectadas por la introducción del euro. Para ambas secciones se utiliza una Base de Datos del Boletín Mensual del Mes de Enero del 2001 del Banco Central Europeo. El período estudiado comprende desde el mes de Enero de 1997 hasta Octubre del 2000. Para efectuar el análisis se emplean los modelos de regresión lineal y split regression, de forma que es posible determinar la relación entre las variables, su nivel de significación en los modelos empleados, y el efecto sufrido por la introducción del euro. El resultado del análisis muestra que la introducción de la moneda única tuvo un fuerte impacto en la mayoría de las variables analizadas y por consecuencia en las tasas de interés de la zona euro. La introducción de la divisa comunitaria implicó la disminución de los tipos de interés promedio en la región, sin embargo fue posible observar un incremento en los mismos durante los últimos meses analizados. Este comportamiento ha sido la respuesta del Banco Central Europeo para mantener la estabilidad de precios ante los fenómenos presentados en el segundo semestre del año 2000, como han sido la debilidad del euro con relación al dólar americano, los elevados precios del petróleo, falta de interés y confianza en la moneda común por parte de Dinamarca, Suecia y el Reino Unido, el prolongado e ininterrumpido crecimiento sostenido de la economía estadounidense hasta antes de Enero del 2001, crisis agropecuarias y la caída de los índices bursátiles.

Yes / Every day the news is filled with increasingly depressing news about the economy. The recent Autumn Statement (29 November 2011) to the House of Commons by UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, confirmed that the cause of a potential ?double dip? recession in the British economy lay largely at the doors of the European Union and, in particular, the eurozone. It is easy to understand why some commentators feel that perhaps the European single currency is in its death-throes, and that the European Union itself needs major structural revisions. But for the sake of perspective it is important to remember the underlying rationale behind the ?European project? which remains as relevant today as it did in the 1950s.

This thesis examines fiscal policy coordination in the EU during the Great Recession (2008-2010). For the first time since the Maastricht Treaty heralded the coordination of macroeconomic policies among EU Member States, public finances were collectively focused on stimulus policies. In sharp contrast to the preceding decade of consolidation and constraint, fiscal policy coordination during the Great Recession presents a novelty: a study in fiscal expansion. Drawing on Mancur Olson’s Logic of Collective Action, this thesis uses a mixed-methods approach that combines the insights from over 40 in-depth interviews and econometric analyses. The central argument of this thesis is that the fiscal crisis responses of EU Member States were not coordinated. Yet despite this lack of coordination, free-riding was kept at bay. First, the overarching consensus on the need for counter-cyclical fiscal policies prevented growth free-riding (i.e. a situation of limited domestic stimulus and free-riding on other countries’ expansive fiscal policies). Second, discipline imposed by financial market participants contributed to policy-makers’ awareness of their limited room for fiscal manoeuvre, which meant that stability free-riding (i.e. stimulus policies that exceeded a country’s fiscal space) did not occur. The first finding suggests the importance of shared policy ideas in achieving collective action; the second points to the role of financial markets in constraining public finances. Ultimately both, shared policy ideas and market discipline, can function as a substitute for strong institutional commitment to shape group oriented behaviour.

In the first chapter, I examine an incomplete markets economy in a politico-economic general equilibrium setting in which the median voter chooses the inflation rate. I use an environment where individuals face an uninsurable idiosyncratic labor productivity shock, and money is the only asset. Being an effective tax on savings, inflation acts as a redistribution mechanism transferring resources from the rich to the poor. I show that the median voter chooses a positive inflation rate as the politico-economic equilibrium outcome. In the second chapter, I analyze how forming a monetary union affects consumption and earnings inequalities through monetary policy changes implied by adopting a common currency. I use a two country open-economy, overlapping-generations model with heterogenous individuals to investigate these effects. In the model, inflation tax is the only redistributive tool and consumption and earnings inequalities are decreasing functions of inflation. When forming a monetary union, countries face a trade-off between the undesirable distributional effects of losing their monetary autonomy and benefits from the elimination of trade frictions. Findings suggest that when countries choose to do so, the country with higher initial inflation will definitely experience a fall in its inflation, hence an increase in its inequalities. In the country with lower initial inflation, however, inflation and inequalities might go in either direction depending on the degree of heterogeneity and the trade dependency between the countries. As the inflationary effect of uniting its monetary policy with a high inflation country can dominate the reducing effect of vanished trade frictions on inflation, this country might have an increase in its inflation, and a decrease in its inequalities. Finally, in the third chapter, I compare the indirect measure of inflation expectations derived by Ireland (1996b) to the direct measures obtained from expectations surveys in two case studies: the US and Turkey. Our results show that the inflation bounds calculated for US data are more volatile than survey results, and are too narrow to contain them due to low standard errors in consumption growth series stemming from high persistence. For the Turkish case, on the other hand, out of three different surveys on inflation expectations in Turkey compared with the bounds computed using Turkish data, expectations obtained by the Consumer Tendency Survey fall within these bounds throughout the whole sample period. Moreover we show that, as Fisher's theory suggests, real interest rates are extremely volatile in Turkey and movements in nominal interest rates cannot be directly used as an indicator of changes in inflation expectations. / text

La tesi intende fornire un’analisi critica dello sviluppo dell’Unione Economica e Monetaria (UEM) alla luce della crisi del debito sovrano. A partire dal 2009 sono state progressivamente attuate diverse riforme che hanno limitato l’autonomia degli Stati Membri nell’esercizio delle loro prerogative sovrane ed hanno fornito alle istituzione europee nuovi poteri nell’ambito di diverse politiche. La ricerca investiga i trasferimenti di sovranità in corso dal livello nazionale a quello europeo focalizzandosi sulle trasformazioni sia dell’Unione Economica che di quella Monetaria. Nel primo capitolo la tesi analizza i carattere originali dell’UEM dalla sua creazione fino alla ratifica del trattato di Lisbona. Il secondo capitolo considera la creazione dei meccanismi di stabilizzazione introdotti per salvare i paesi a rischio default e garantire la stabilità finanziaria della zona euro nel suo complesso. Il terzo capitolo studia gli interventi della Banca Centrale Europea durante la crisi, analizzando in che modo la necessità di proteggere la moneta unica abbia sviluppato il ruolo della BCE ed esteso il suo mandato. Il quarto capitolo studia la riforma della governance economica tramite il rafforzamento della disciplina fiscale degli Stati Membri. Il quinto capitolo analizza la riforma della governance bancaria e la creazione dell’Unione Bancaria, che è stata finalmente introdotta per interrompere il circolo vizioso tra crisi del debito e crisi bancaria. Nello sviluppo della tesi le diverse riforme verranno analizzate dal punto di visto della loro legalità, efficacia e legittimità democratica. / The thesis aims to provide a critical analysis of the development of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in the light of the sovereign debt crisis. Since 2009 a number of measures have been progressively implemented, which have limited the autonomy of Member States in exercising their sovereign prerogatives and have granted EU institutions new powers in key policy areas. The research will investigate the ongoing transfers of sovereignty from national to European level focusing on the transformation of both the Economic and the Monetary Union. In the first chapter, it will consider the original features of the EMU, from its introduction at the intergovernmental conference of Maastricht until the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. The second chapter will focus on the creation of rescue and stabilization mechanisms put in place to save Member States from imminent default and to ensure the financial stability of the Eurozone as a whole. The third chapter will study the interventions of the European Central Bank during the crisis considering how the necessity to protect the single currency has developed its role and extended its mandate. The fourth chapter will focus on the reform of the economic governance through the fiscal discipline of Member States. The fifth chapter will take into consideration the reform of the banking governance and the establishment of the European Banking Union, which was finally introduced to stop the vicious cycle between the debt and banking crisis. By developing the thesis, the analysis will consider each reform from the point of view of its legality, effectiveness and democratic legitimacy.

This thesis studies the optimal conduct of unconventional monetary policy in the form of purchases of long-term government debt by the central bank and, motivated by this policy tool, the evolution of long-term government debt holdings in household portfolios over the course of the life cycle. It is comprised of three self-contained chapters. The first chapter investigates whether it can be beneficial for central banks to use the unconventional tool even when the main policy rate is not constrained by the zero lower bound. A friction in the interaction between households and banks allows central bank purchases of long-term government debt to reduce long-term interest rates and thus to stimulate economic activity. If debt purchases and conventional short-term interest rate policy are coordinated in an appropriate way, the central bank is able to reduce the volatility of output and inflation. In the second chapter, the role that unconventional monetary policy can play in a currency union is analysed. A model is laid out, in which two countries form a currency union with a common central bank but separate and uncoordinated fiscal policy institutions. When monetary policy is implemented only through the common short-term interest rate, the central bank is unable to respond effectively to country-specific shocks. Due to segmentation in the market for long-term government debt, the yield on long-term debt can differ across countries. As a result, a monetary policy authority that can rely on bond purchases is able to address idiosyncratic shocks reflected in volatility of the natural terms of trade more effectively and to achieve higher welfare than one that cannot make use of this instrument. The final chapter studies the long-term government bond share in household portfolios over the course of the life cycle. US data from the Survey of Consumer Finances suggests that participation in the market for long-term government debt first increases and later decreases as agents approach the retirement age. The portfolio share conditional on participation is non-decreasing over the working life. These stylised facts can be explained by means of a portfolio choice model in which agents are subject to aggregate risk through asset returns as well as idiosyncratic risk through labour income and the stochastic events of retirement and death.

This thesis examines the implications of Euro on current account balances of countries using it. First, we summarize the main theoretical and empirical findings about determinants of current account deficits and possible implications of monetary union. Second, an empirical analysis of possible effects of single currency is presented. We employ time-specific fixed-effect estimator, corrected for possible endogeneity between fiscal policy stance and current account deficits. Our results do not support the hypothesis of any impact on current account balances as such, however we document positive role of single currency for gross saving and investment rates. We further examined eventual break in the relationship between fiscal and current account balances. Our regression indicates that the role of fiscal balance as determinant of current account transactions increased with introduction of single currency therefore implying less Ricardian behaviour of private sector in Eurozone. Keywords current account, monetary union, fiscal balance, shift Author's e-mail tomas.olesnanik@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail jaromir.baxa@centrum.cz

We propose the analysis of the dynamics of the standard deviation of business cycles across euro area countries in order to evaluate the patterns of cyclical convergence in the European Monetary Union for the period 1960-2008. We identify significant business cycle divergence taking place in the mid-eighties, followed by a persistent convergence period spanning most of the nineties. This convergent episode finishes roughly with the birth of the European Monetary Union. We show that a hypothetical euro area including all the new members of the recent enlargement rounds does not imply a sizeable decrease in the optimality of the currency union. Finally, the European synchronization differential with respect to other developed economies seems to have been diluted within a global cycle since 2004.

This paper investigates the patterns and determinants of the co-movement of economic activity across regions in the European Union. Using a panel data of 208 EU-15 regions over the period 1989-2002 we estimate a system of four simultaneous equations to analyse the impact of regional trade integration, specialization and exchange rate volatility on correlations of regional growth cycles with the Euro area. We find that deeper trade integration with the Euro area had a strong direct positive effect on the synchronisation of regional growth cycles with the Euro area. Industrial specialisation and exchange rate volatility were sources of cyclical divergence. Industrial specialisation had however an indirect positive effect on growth cycles synchronisation via its positive effect on trade integration, while exchange rate volatility had an indirect additional negative effect on growth cycle correlations by reducing trade integration. Industrial specialisation had an indirect negative effect on growth cycle correlations by increasing the exchange rate volatility. The direct impact of trade integration on growth cycle correlations was stronger in the pre-EMU sub-period, while in the EMU subperiod, the negative direct effects of industrial specialisation and exchange rate volatility were stronger than in the pre-EMU sub-period. A distinct result is the positive and significant relationship between exchange rate volatility and growth cycle correlations in the pre-EMU sub-period, suggesting that over this period, country-specific exchange rate fluctuations acted as shock absorbers. Our analysis is relevant in the context of the discussion about the macroeconomic adjustment to region-specific shocks in the European Monetary Union. (authors' abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

Thesis advisor: James Cronin / In 1957, the Treaty of Rome was signed by six West European states to create the European Economic Community (EEC). Designed to foster a common internal market for a limited amount of industrial goods and to define a customs union within the Six, it did not at the time particularly stand out among contemporary international organizations. However, by 1992, within the space of a single generation, this initially limited trade zone had been dramatically expanded into the world's largest trade bloc and had pooled substantial sovereignty among its member states on a range of core state responsibilities. Most remarkably, this transformation resulted from a thoroughly novel political experiment that combined traditional interstate cooperation among its growing membership with an unprecedented transfer of sovereignty to centralized institutions. Though still lacking the traditional institutions and legitimacy of a fully-fledged state, in many policy areas, the European Union (EU) that emerged in 1992 was nonetheless collectively a global force. My dissertation argues that the organization's unprecedented transfer of national sovereignty challenged the very definition of the modern European state and its function. In structure and ambition, it represented far more than just a regional trade bloc among independent states: it became a unique political entity that effectively remodelled the fundamental blueprint of the conventional European state structure familiar to scholars for generations. How did such a dramatic transformation happen so quickly? I argue that three forces in particular were at play: the external pressures of globalization, the search for a new Western European and German identity within the Cold War world and the often unintended consequences of the interaction between member state governments and the Community's supranational institutions. In particular, I examine the history of the EEC's monetary union, common foreign policy, common social policy and the single market to explain the impact of the above forces of change on the EEC's rapid transformation. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2014. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: History.