Este trabalho investiga quantitativamente as causas da adesão de países a tratados internacionais de segurança. Mais precisamente, tratados de controle de armamentos. O principal tratado a ser estudado aqui é o Tratado de Não-Proliferação de Armas Nucleares. Primeiramente fiz uma reconstrução racional dos programas realista e liberal das relações internacionais, com enfoque em regimes internacionais. Trata-se de uma abordagem qualitativa, feita com o intuito de subsidiar a pesquisa quantitativa. O cerne do trabalho é a análise econométrica do problema da adesão. Utilizo dados em painel na forma país/ano. Utilizo o universo dos países entre os anos 1968 e 2004. A técnica utilizada é a regressão logística com erro padrão robusto agrupado por país. O principal achado é que democracias aderem mais que autocracias na razão de dois para um. Por fim, temos uma modelagem formal, ainda bastante tentativa, do problema da adesão a tratados de segurança, feita com o intuito de prover uma ferramenta de policy implementation, com base num estudo de caso, qual seja, o da adesão de Índia e Paquistão ao Tratado de Não-Proliferação de Armas Nucleares. A metodologia usada nesta parte é a de desenho de mecanismo. / This study investigates the causes of adhesion to security treaties. The main case of study is the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The rational reconstructions of the liberal and realist research programs inform the quantitative work that follows them. The kernel of this piece is the econometric analysis. I use panel data and cluster robust logits to infer the causes of adhesion of countries to arms control treaties. The main finding is that democracies adhere more than authoritarian domestic regimes with a two to one odds ratio. Finally, I model the strategic situation between India and Pakistan. These two countries are not yet signatories of the NPT. I use mechanism design to come up with a means of promoting better equilibria.

Terrorism is a multi-dimensional phenomenon that encompasses elements of politics, economics, social, and ideology, driving people to commit violent acts and become involved in such activity. As of today, the existence and latent threat of Islamist terrorism still inflict global society with formidable challenges, and one way to overcome such challenges is by leveraging our knowledge on the multi-dimensional, determining factors/elements that lead people to commit terrorist attacks and other radical-related activities. In other words, as our struggle against terrorism is a global endeavour that may last a generation or more, leveraging our knowledge on such multi-dimensional, determining factors/elements will increase our understanding of the underlying causes and patterns that continue to inspire jihadist terrorism. However, it is wrong to equate the religion of Islam with terrorism. Perhaps most importantly, the Islamic tradition is all-encompassing, combining religious and secular life and law. This surely complicates attempts to understand the Islamist ideology and counter-measures to it solely through the lens of traditional Western political science. Therefore, a distinction must be made between the religion of Islam and a set of often-conflicting political ideologies known as Islamism, where many forms of them are non-radical, reformists or gradualists. That is why, Islamist extremists who advocate acts of terrorism may be properly termed Islamist terrorists, who seek to cloth their acts in the trappings of the Islamic religion. In this case, they use their own religious-based arguments to justify their violent acts. This Ph.D. thesis examines the multi-dimensional factors that lead to the existence and latent threat of Islamist terrorism in Indonesia by focusing on the individuals who committed series of deadly terrorist attacks from 2002 – 2009 and some other radical-related activities in Indonesia until 2017. Such factors encompass at least the economic grievances, social grievances, political grievances, radical ideology, social network, state repression (“stick”), and government incentive (“carrot”), all which are the key variables in determining the existence and latent threat of Islamist terrorism. Through a systematic, multi-dimensional analysis using qualitative and quantitative research methodologies (including the social network analysis), this Ph.D. thesis will specifically examine what factors drove people with the association to Jemaah Islamiya (JI) and radical-Islamist movements to commit and become involved in terrorist attacks? and why and how might such factors/elements influence these people to commit terrorist attacks in the future? The combined qualitative, quantitative, and social network analysis in this Ph.D. thesis has proven and confirmed the main hypothesis, where the existence and latent threat of Islamist terrorism in Indonesia are indeed caused by the intertwining interaction of these multi-dimensional factors instead of being otherwise. The ideological-related variables followed by the social network-related ones are proven as the two most significant factors in the pattern of Islamist terrorism in Indonesia. In other words, the set of economic, social, and political grievances will not cause Islamist terrorism in Indonesia to occur if there are no intervening variables: the social network and radical ideology being involved in the equation. Subsequently, the other two moderating variables also play its own role, namely the state repression and the government incentive. According to various examinations of multivariate statistical analysis in this Ph.D. thesis, these two variables on their own will not cause the Islamist terrorism to occur in Indonesia, but when combined with the existence of social network and radical ideology, these two variables are proven as the moderating variables to exacerbate the occurrence of Islamist terrorism in Indonesia. In conclusion, by looking at this current pattern, it could be predicted that Indonesia herself is still likely to become both the producer and battlefield of global-Islamist terrorism in near future. Therefore, the Indonesian national counterterrorism policy and strategy need to be updated and well integrated with the Indonesian national policy and grand strategy to better address the existence and latent threat of Islamist terrorism in the archipelago.

This thesis investigated how the Mexican cartels have taken advantage of loop holes in U.S. policy to grow their drug market and power. Three policies were examined to demonstrate how the cartels adapted to policy changes and continued to thrive and expand. The first policy analyzed was the North American Free Trade Agreement, which opened up the borders between Mexico and the United States. The next policy investigated was the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996, which instituted harsher punishments for illegal immigration and caused mass deportation. The final policy examined was the Federal Assault Weapons Ban of 1994. This act outlawed automatic weapons and put restrictions on high capacity magazines. The research found that through these three policies, the Mexican cartels were able to physically export more drugs into the United States, expand their influence and recruitment of immigrants for labor, and obtain more guns to carry out violence.

Approaching $400 billion for its establishment and production, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) is the Department of Defense's (DoD) largest acquisition program in U.S. history. Unfortunately, significant delays have immobilized the program's production rate, and little research has examined whether and how such delays directly affect national security. The purpose of this study was to determine whether and how production delays in the JSF program directly affect national security. The theoretical foundations for this qualitative case study were Condorcet's modernization theory and Giddens's globalization framework. Data were collected from interviews with 15 senior DoD civilian, military, and JSF officials and were coded and categorized to identify themes and patterns related to the source of production delays and reasons behind their persistence. Data were triangulated using archival records and government research documents. Key findings revealed concurrency issues, Helmet Mounted Display malfunctions, engine concerns, scheduling mishaps, national security vulnerabilities, and astronomical funding outside of the budget. Such factors were responsible for fighter program delays, which affect national security. The results are deemed significant, as the fighter has been a critical 'piece to the puzzle' in the national security strategy as well as other national defense guidance issues. These findings have implications for social change in that they may inform senior DoD officials of policy-related concerns due to continued delays and their impacts on national security interests. Additionally, the study identifies concerns related to sustaining international partnerships that have significant interests embedded into this program.

Thesis (M.A.)--Naval Postgraduate School, 2002. / Thesis advisor(s): H. Lyman Miller, Harold D. Blanton. AD-A402 689. Includes bibliographical references. Also available online.

The Guantanamo issue refers to the classic question concerning the role of ethics in international relations. That is why the purpose of this research was to, by relating to the dilemma between national security and human rights, study the current Obama Administration's standpoint given to the Guantanamo prisoners in reference to three different ethical views. These three ethical views are Joseph Nye's innovative perspective on morality within international relations, which constitute the theoretical frameworks of this research and they are sceptics, state moralists and cosmopolitans. With help of the descriptive and explanation approaches within ideology and argumentation method, I studied speeches of the representatives of the Obama Administration as well as executive orders and reports which focus on the Administration's statements and decisions given to the Guantanamo issue. The analysis of the material in reference to the theorethical framework of this research, lead to a conclusion that the Obama Administration underlines the importance of both national security and human rights  given to the Guantanamo prisoners. Analysis of this research displays also that the Obama Administration has not change its line of argumentation since 2008 as well as the Administration's decisions are affected first and foremost by state moralist view point.

In the aftermath of the events of 9/11, the U.S. executive branch has repeatedly maintained that its need for action to secure the nation requires a revised interpretation of individual liberties. This study will explore the tensions between the positive ideographs and in response to the negative ideograph in a contemporary United States court ruling. Using Burke’s pentad, and cluster analysis, as well as Brummett’s notion of strategic silence, the study examines how the FISCR substantially changed the interrelationship between the two ideographs. The study concludes that the FISCR situated strengthening national security as the purpose of the case it ruled on, which privileged national security over privacy. Throughout the expansion of security,> the court used silence to justify its decision. This analysis both adds to our understanding of the synchronic relationship between ideographs, and examines how the courts utilize such interplays to reconstitute community.

We have been operated the All-out Defense education for five years. The purpose of this study is to investigate the working effectiveness of All-out Defense education. The content of the test was based on ¡§the factors of influencing learning effectiveness¡¨. For supporting the above-mentioned purposes, I used questionnaire investigation method to collect the material data. A total of 570 questionnaires were sent out to a senior high school in Kaohsiung City , and the effective samples are 498. Describing statistics, discriminate analysis, t test, and Pearsonion correlation coefficient, were performedby SPSS statistics software to analyze and explain the raw data. Besides, I have interviewed a teacher who has winned the award of Teaching Excellence recognition in 2010. He made a description of operating the national defense education for the school. The results of this study were analyzed and discussed as follows. First, after operating the national defence education for five years, the preliminary effect has been noticed in the senior high school. Second, there was a significant difference between students¡¦ background and influencing factors of learning. Third, there was no significant difference between students¡¦ background and learning results. Forth, influencing factors have big impact toward learning effectiveness.

Abstract With the transformation of the world geopolitics since the collapse of USSR, the international relations theories about borders, cross-border ethnics, and energy politics are increasingly getting important. Meanwhile, there are some doubts about the debate between the land power and sea power based on the theories of the classic geopolitics. Take China for example. It is a nation equipped with land power and sea power, and is moving forward as a great power. Accordingly, my research focuses on the nature of Chinese geopolitics and its thinking on national security from the perspective of the dynamic process of Chinese border and borderland. I hope it can be of help to interpret China¡¦s Grand Strategy. Through the general explorations of geopolitics and national strategy, I intend to prove the arguments: whether China will be a nation with land power and sea power or a nation with only one alternative. Besides, how can China resolve the geopolitical dilemma in the diplomatic practice? In my research, the understanding of historical culture and geography factors should be prior to the thinking on the Chinese geopolitical theory. In the Chinese history, ¡§China¡¨ and ¡§Borderland¡¨ have been integrated with each other during the war times, which have made China expand into the vast territory and border of all time, and have made the national security more stable than at any time since the Opium Wars of 1839-1841. In the 21st century, when China declared its ¡§peaceful rise¡¨ and developed its marine strategies, the so-called ¡§geopolitical dilemma in sea-power and land-power,¡¨ based on the classic theories, would not virtually cause any problem to China. The key is that China¡¦s Grand Strategy always balances with and adjusts to the dynamic world politics. China wins over the advantage of land-border security by announcing the mutual respect and interests to the surrounding states, and practices its ¡§soft power¡¨ through the international institutes. In addition to the military modernization promoted by economic effects, China begins to strive for an ocean strategy. Furthermore, in my opinion, the problem of Xinjing is the biggest threat to the national security inside China. As the cross-border ethnics and ¡§pivot of Asia,¡¨ Xinjing is inclined to be influenced by the outside world. In order to promote the border protection and attack the antiterrorism, China founded the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Xinjing is the biggest province of China and the access to the Central Asia and Europe from China. That¡¦s why Xinjing is called ¡§Eurasian Crossroads.¡¨ As a consequence, Xinjing is deeply affected by the outside world no matter what issues are involved, such as politics, economics, military security, energy, border, and antiterrorism. That¡¦s why China¡¦s national security and Xinjing are closely tied up. My conclusion is that the threat to China¡¦s national security lies not in outside the border but in inside the country. In Chinese history, the diplomatic practices are the reflections on the domestic demands, especially under the principles of the ¡§sovereignty¡¨ and the ¡§unification of territory,¡¨ which form the basis for the formation of ¡§China¡¨ and ¡§Borderland¡¨ in Chinese history, and are also the foundation stone for CCP to maintain its control over the state.

Historically, the US appears to have responded inconsistently to similar acts of terrorism in two different ways, using either a law enforcement or military response. These legal and military responses can be either unilateral or multilateral. This study attempts to determine when each type of response is preferred by decisionmakers, both political leaders and their citizens. The hypotheses suggesting that a response is preferred depending upon terrorist attack success, location, and the terrorists' sociocultural similarities are tested in three experiments and examined in a case study. These three variables are believed, as suggested by the Cognitive Calculus concept, to cause an emotional reaction amongst the respondents resulting in them having a higher preference for the military and unilateral options. Whether or not the respondents were experiencing an emotional reaction was studied in each experiment as well as being tested in the third experiment by examining the respondents? selection of options based upon their success rates. The case study examined US government responses to the First World Trade Center bombing, the Bojinka Plot, the Khobar Towers bombing, and the September 11, 2001 attacks. The results of the experiments and case study suggest a calm and deliberative response by the respondents to acts of terrorism, with a greater preference for legal and multilateral responses to terrorism.