Within the growing concern about the short-term and lasting impacts of natural hazard-based disasters on lives, livelihoods and economies, the ability to manage disaster and climate risk is central to sustainable development. As many recent disasters are directly or indirectly related to weather or climate, and with the expectation that climate variability and change may exacerbate the frequency and/or intensity of related hazards and extreme weather events, climate information has become a critical component of disaster and climate risk management. However, despite its increasing use, as well as money, time and effort into gathering and processing the relevant data, few studies highlight the connection between climate information and development outcomes. Using a Caribbean lens, this dissertation explores how the awareness, provision and use of weather and climate information, including storm advisories/forecasts and satellite-based rainfall data, may be linked to development outcomes, both in terms of localized impacts of weather- and climate-related events but also within the wider macro-economy. I explore if development outcomes may vary by event day-of-week timing (hypothesizing a relation to possible differences in climate information provision), study whether there may be a human element of improving climate information, and analyze climate information details to best understand its potential use in Caribbean small states. Such research aligns well with ongoing efforts to understand and predict extreme events, as well as connect disasters to socio-economic outcomes, and can also enrich perspectives which concern assessing vulnerability to disasters and recommending solutions to improve risk communication and strengthen disaster preparedness and resilience.

To what extent do unexpected, apolitical events affect governors’ popularity? Individuals’ attitudes towards government are often random, and executives at both the state-level and national-level are held accountable for events that they have little control over. In this study, I seek to understand how these unplanned events affect support for elected officials. Specifically, I examine the effect of the declaration of a State of Emergency on gubernatorial approval. I use an ordinary least squares (OLS) model and data from FEMA as well as the United States Officials Job Approval Ratings dataset to answer such questions. The results indicate that not only do natural and manmade disasters NOT have a negative effect on governors’ popularity, there is actually no correlation between the two variables at all. Instead, I find that relative to one another, major disaster declarations have a stronger negative effect on a governor’s approval ratings than emergency declarations. Though surprising, I suggest that these disasters simply do not affect enough individuals for a long enough time to have an impact on gubernatorial popularity.

Natural and technological disasters impact thousands of families in the United States each year. Catastrophic events leave homelessness, unemployment, injury, and death in their wake. The cost to society is usually measured in homes destroyed, jobs lost, casualties, and expected dollar expense of recovery. There are the social, psychological, and family consequences of catastrophic stressors. Anecdotal reports suggest that among these consequences is an increase in family violence, including child abuse. This dissertation tests the hypotheses that reported and confirmed child abuse increases in the wake of natural disasters. Child Protective Services (CPS) records of several jurisdictions that have experienced natural disasters during the past decade were examined. Data were collected from counties in South Carolina impacted by Hurricane Hugo in 1989, counties in California affected by the Loma Prieta Earthquake in 1989, and parishes in Louisiana impacted by Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The numbers of reports and confirmations for a one-year period following each of these events were compared with those for the year prior to the disaster. Analyses of these data indicated statistically significant increases in child abuse reports during the first 6 months following Hurricane Hugo and the Lama Prieta Earthquake, but showed no statistically significant change following Hurricane Andrew. The study concluded that reactions to natural disasters vary for a number of different reasons. The findings from California and South Carolina indicated that there are changes in patterns of reporting and/or confirmation of child abuse following catastrophes. CPS workers in each of the impacted areas were interviewed to obtain their impressions regarding the extent and causes of these changes in reporting and substantiation. Recommendations that governmental and social service agencies dedicate resources and develop programs to address this specific problem following catastrophes were included. Future research that replicates this study and the development of methodologies that do not depend on official reports and investigations were recommended.

<p>This dissertation consists of three studies exploring the effects of natural disasters in North Carolina on the longer term outcomes of children. The first study looks at the effect of prenatal natural disaster exposure on maternal health behaviors and birth outcomes for twenty cohorts of children born in North Carolina. Combining North Carolina administrative and survey data on births with disaster declarations from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) allows me to identify children who were exposed to disasters in each trimester of prenatal development. Using a county fixed effect strategy, I compare these children to other children born in the same county who were not exposed to disasters while in utero. Results indicate that prenatal natural disaster exposure, especially exposure to hurricanes, has a significant effect on some maternal health behaviors, but this study provides only limited support for the theory that natural disaster exposure negatively affects birth outcomes, as measured by birth weight and gestational age.</p><p>The second study looks at the impact of exposure to natural disasters during pregnancy on the educational outcomes of North Carolina children at third grade. A broad literature relates negative birth outcomes to poor educational performance, and a number of recent studies examine the effect of prenatal exposure to natural disasters on birth outcomes. This study takes the next step by considering how prenatal exposure affects later outcomes. The children identified in the first study as exposed to disasters prenatally are compared to other children born in the same county who were not exposed to disasters while in utero. Results suggest that children exposed to hurricanes prenatally have lower scores on third grade standardized tests in math and reading. Those exposed to flooding or tornadoes also have somewhat lower math scores. Additionally, results suggest that these negative effects are more concentrated among children in disadvantaged subgroups, especially children born to Black mothers. </p><p>The third study addresses the question of whether the disruption caused by a natural disaster has an impact on student academic outcomes in the school year during which the natural disaster occurs. The effects of disasters on school performance are important because natural disasters often constitute a major community disruption with widespread impacts on the lives of children. The educational data in this study comes from administrative records for all school districts in North Carolina. Results suggest that hurricanes have a negative overall impact on reading test scores, with the effect concentrated among middle schools. However, winter storms have a positive effect on both math and reading scores in middle school. This difference in effect and additional analysis of mechanisms suggests that mobility is more important than missed days of schools in mediating negative effects of hurricanes on school performance.</p> / Dissertation

The aim of this study was to investigate Meteorological Fire Danger Indices for Turkey. A number of internationally implemented fire danger indices were calculated with Fire Danger Processing software and their performances were tested with Mandallaz and Ye&rsquo / s Performance Score Method. As a result, among other meteorological fire danger indices that have been applied by several fire fighting administrations and services, the U.S. National Fire Danger Rating System, Mc.Arthur&rsquo / s Fuel Moisture Model and Forest Fire Weather Index, BEHAVE Fine Fuel Moisture Model and Keetch Byram Drought Index, the Canadian Fire Weather Index was selected as the best performing fire danger index for Turkey. Calibrated with monthly fire history data of the last 5 years&rsquo / records, the results during the determined fire season were integrated with vegetation cover data for Turkey, derived from GLC 2000 global land cover data. Besides, daily performance of the Canadian Fire Weather Index was observed by three consecutive days in August 2006 and the outcomes were evaluated with the information about fire events compiled from newspaper archives. The study is a first attempt for further fire related analysis at the national scale / an attempt to establish an early warning system and a spatial base for mitigation effort for the wild fire phenomenon in Turkey.

Eine geschlossene ökonomische Theorie der Naturkatastrophen existiert bislang nicht. Arbeiten, die sich dieses Themas aus volkswirtschaftlicher Sicht annehmen und dabei vor allem die langfristig wirksam werdenden ökonomischen Prozesse betrachten, besitzen folglich Pioniercharakter. Denn die entsprechend erweiterte Fragestellung geht über die der Versicherung hinaus: Wie sind die Folgen für eine Wirtschaft bzw. ein Wirtschaftssystem einzuordnen? Je nach regionaler, sektoraler und zeitlicher Abgrenzung - letzteres im Sinne der Einwirkzeit nach Auftreten der Katastrophe - führt zu unterschiedlichen Sichtweisen des Schadens und damit auch der Möglichkeiten, derartige Schäden aufzufangen und eine Volkswirtschaft selbsttragend und nachhaltig zu stabilisieren. Zu den wichtigen Leistungen des Verfassers zählen die definitorische Aufbereitung, eine deskriptive Analyse von Naturkatastrophen und eine Reihe von Fallstudien, die die Schadensklassifikation vorbereiten, in einem zweiten Schritt die Herausarbeitung stilisierter Fakten für Naturkatastrophen auf theoretischer Grundlage, die dann in einem schätzbaren Wachstumsmodell münden. Wichtig ist hierbei insbesondere die Abbildung der je nach Schadensart und nach zivilisatorischen Stand sehr unterschiedlich wirkenden Vernetzung: Wird durch einen Wirbelsturm ein Finanzzentrum bedroht oder führt ein Vulkanausbruch zum Verlust der Ernährungsgrundlage? Die ökonomische Analyse der unterschiedlichen Pfade des Wiederaufbaus nach einer Katastrophe und das Herausarbeiten entsprechender Muster ist als besonderer Beitrag zu betrachten, weil sie einen neuen Blick auf die Katastrophenfolgenabschätzung bieten. Aufgabe dieser Arbeit ist es, das tatsächliche Ausmaß der genannten Auswirkungen qualitativ und vor allem quantitativ zu erfassen. Von vorrangigem Interesse sind dabei zum einen die Folgen der Katastrophenauswirkungen für das wirtschaftliche Wachstum des betroffenen Landes, zum anderen die Einflußfaktoren für den Umfang dieser Katastrophenauswirkungen. Aufgrund des im weiteren Verlauf deutlich werdenden Mangels an einschlägiger empirischer Literatur wählt diese Arbeit einen umfassenden Ansatz zur Beantwortung der Problemstellung. Den Überlegungen liegt eine dreistufige Struktur zugrunde, wobei die erste Stufe innerhalb einer volkswirtschaftlichen Arbeit nicht zu lösen ist. Es handelt sich dabei um die Bestimmung der Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit bzw. des Eintrittszeitpunktes einer Naturkatastrophe. Dieser ist die Basis für die zweite Stufe: das Ausmaß der Katastrophenfolgen. Sind diese bekannt, können in der dritten Stufe die Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft bestimmt werden.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Delaware, 2009. / Principal faculty advisor: Robert E. Lyons, Dept. of Plant & Soil Sciences. Includes bibliographical references.

Masteropgave. / Format: PDF. Bibl.

Master's thesis. / Format: PDF. Bibl.

This study employed a qualitative approach to explore the factors that contribute to positive change and growth following a natural disaster. The qualitative methodology included narrative interviews and family group interviews that were conducted with six families in Florida that had experienced two or three hurricanes within six weeks in 2004. Narrative analysis and thematic analysis were used to discover what factors contributed to participants experiencing positive growth. Participants described the experience of surviving and coping with the hurricane. Participants reported that preparation before a hurricane was a three-part process that involved physical, mental, and emotional preparation. Four actions were referred to as helpful to stay positive during a hurricane: (a) drawing on family, friends, and neighbors for continual emotional support; (b) keeping occupied with a fun activity; (c) leaning on religious faith; (d) and listening to up-to-date information. Families described nine sources of support that enabled them to cope after the hurricane: (a) the government, (b) charitable organizations, (c) homeowner's insurance, (d) family, (e) friends, (f) religious faith, (g) stories, (h) life perspective, and (i) music. Participants reported eight factors that encouraged adversarial growth. Communicating emotional support within relationships was the most commonly cited factor in recovery and growth after a hurricane, followed by worldview, appreciation, religious faith, patience, self-reliance, teamwork, and creativity. A holistic approach to disaster planning that includes consideration of those elements that contribute to positive growth for the survivor is recommended. Further research is needed to understand how to facilitate adversarial growth among disaster survivors through emotional support and interpersonal networks.