The purpose of this study is to explore, compare, and analyze the process of learning and the importance of adaptation and resilience in a continuously evolving environment amidst natural disasters as seen in two earthquake-prone communities located in southern Peru. The framework of complex adaptive systems offers insight into understanding human limitations to control an environment that is constantly far from equilibrium. Complexity science theory supports the study and the self-organization of communities in the process of coping with a disaster. Reports generated from informal interviews and participatory techniques further support all evidential findings. The co-evolution process given by the participation of diverse agents may include the collaboration and involvement of victims as well as local, state, and national organizations. Results from the co-evolution process may derive from previous experiences, preparedness, education, the development of previous relationships, and the capacity of improvisation. Furthermore, solidarity, self-organization and adaptation of agents in a community may further influence the ability to deal effectively with unexpected adversity. / text

Final Thesis, Master of Business Administration & Economic Program, Field of Research: Management, School of Business & Economics at Linnaeus University, Växjö, Sweden, 4FE10E, Spring 2015. Author: David Häggberg Supervisor: Richard Nakamura (Daniel Ericsson) Title: Ground-Breaking Contingency Planning with Risk- & Disaster Management Subtitle: A Case Study at Höganäs Japan K.K. Background: On the 11th of March 2011, Japan was hit with one of the largestearthquakes in modern history at a magnitude of 9.0 on the Richter scale. Thiscaused wide spreading and lasting delays in production in large parts of the worlddue to organizations supply chain being connected to Japan. Subsequently RiskManagement has received renewed and increasing attention, both in Japan and therest of the world. The proactive concept of Risk Management primary builds itsmodels around probability and utilizes this concept as a basis for determining whichrisks that should be mitigated through countermeasures and financial investments.Though when faced with an environment filled with uncertainty and an additionallevel of indirect risk exposure due to the potential domino effect of natural disasterssuch as earthquakes, can Risk Management really handle that, a world whereprobability fails? The reactive approach used by Disaster Management mightcontain clues for making Risk Management more flexible. Research Question: How can a transnational corporation adapt their RiskManagement strategy and plan for contingencies in a country with an unstablenatural environment? Purpose: This thesis seeks to investigate how a strategy for Risk Management canbe created and adapted with the regard to uncertainties such as an unstableenvironmental situation. The goal is further to highlight how traditional RiskManagement can be combined with other related areas such as DisasterManagement, in order to make a more complete strategy and a more flexible plan foraction. An adaption to the Risk Management strategy that would be made in order tomake the strategy applicable on a global level and including areas with unstableenvironmental situations. Method: This study has utilized a multi-strategy approach and the main source ofdata for this case study has come from semi-structured interviews and acomplementary survey. The author has found it necessary to adopt a pragmaticstandpoint with a qualitative focus in order to explore the research question andunderstand the collected data to its fullest extent. Conclusion: Adopting the local practices and mindset that strives to constantlysecure the supply chain and fulfill customer obligations by creating contingenciesthe risk exposure can be mitigated. Utilizing a quickly adaptable approach instead oflong-term planning in combination with concepts such as a Disaster Recovery Planthe Risk Management strategy can be altered towards becoming more flexible.

Wind power can be related to natural disasters in several ways. This licentiate thesis gives some background and introduces four papers devoted to two aspects of this relation. The first section looks into how small-scale wind energy converters (WECs) could be used to generate power after a natural disaster. For this application diesel generators are the most common solution today, but there would be several advantages of replacing these systems. A study of off-grid systems with battery storage at 32 sites showed that photovoltaics (PV) were more suitable than WECs. The results were confirmed by a study for the entire globe; PV outperformed WECs at most sites when it comes to small-scale application. This is especially true for areas with a high disaster risk. Hybrid systems comprising both PV and WECs are however interesting at higher latitudes. For the Swedish case, it is shown that gridded data from a freely available meteorological model, combined with a statistical model, give good estimates of the mean wind speed at 10 meters above ground. This methodology of estimating the mean wind speed can be used when there is no time for a proper wind measurement campaign. The second section is directed towards wind power variability and integration. The results presented in the thesis are intended as a basis for future studies on how a substantially increased wind power capacity affects the electric grid in terms of stability, grid reinforcement requirements, increased balancing needs etc. A review of variability and forecastability for non-dispatchable renewable energy sources was performed together with researchers from the solar, wave and tidal power fields. Although a lot of research is conducted in these areas, it was concluded that more studies on combinations of the sources would be desirable. The disciplines could also learn from each other and benefit from the use of more unified methods and metrics. A model of aggregated hourly wind power production has finally been developed. The model is based on reanalysis data from a meteorological model and detailed information on Swedish WECs. The model proved very successful, both in terms of low prediction errors and in the match of probability density function for power and step changes of power. / Vindkraft kan relateras till naturkatastrofer på flera olika sätt. Den här licentiat\-avhandlingen ger bakgrund till och introducerar fyra artiklar som beskriver två aspekter av detta samband. I den första avdelningen undersöks hur småskalig vindkraft skulle kunna användas för att generera el efter en naturkatastrof. I dagsläget är det dieselaggregat som används för detta ändamål, men det skulle finnas stora fördelar med att övergå till förnybara system. En studie av 32 platser (myndigheten MSB:s utlandsstationeringar augusti 2012) visade att solceller var mer lämpade än vindkraftverk. Resultaten bekräftades av en studie för hela världen; solceller ger billigare system än småskaliga vindkraftverk för de flesta platser, inte minst om man tittar på områden som är utsatta för naturkatastrofer. Hybridsystem med både solceller och vindkraftverk var dock intressanta på högre breddgrader. För Sverige så visas det att data från en fritt tillgängliga meteorologisk modell tillsammans med en statistisk korrigering beroende på terrängtyp ger bra uppskattningar av medelvinden på 10 meters höjd. Den föreslagna metodiken kan vara användbar som ett komplement till vindmätningar eller om det inte finns tid eller möjlighet till en riktig mätkampanj. Den andra avdelningen är inriktad mot vindens variabilitet och integrering av vindkraft i kraftsystemet. De resultat som presenteras i denna avhandling är tänkta som en bas för framtida studier av hur en kraftigt ökad andel vindkraft påverkar elsystemet med avseende på stabilitet, nödvändiga nätförstärkningar, ökade krav på balanskraft etc. En översiktsstudie av variabilitet och prognosbarhet för intermittenta förnybara energikällor gjordes tillsammans med forskare inom sol-, våg och tidvattenkraft. Även om mycket forskning pågår inom dessa områden så var en slutsats att mer studier för kombinationer av olika källor skulle vara önskvärt. Forskare inom de olika disciplinerna skulle också kunna lära från varandra och dra fördel av gemensamma metoder och mått. Slutligen har en modell av aggregerad timvis vindkraftproduktion tagits fram. Modellen baseras på data från en meteorologisk modell samt detaljerad information om vindkraftverk i Sverige. Modellen visade sig vara mycket träffsäker, både vad gäller låga prediktionsfel och i överensstämmelse av sannolikhetsfördelning av effekt och stegförändring av timvis effekt.

This dissertation seeks to explore the association between natural disasters and neighborhood change and further to examine the differential impact of natural disasters on neighborhood change according to the disaster itself, the rehabilitation efforts of local jurisdictions, and the characteristics of the affected neighborhoods. Using the longitudinal model, it examines the shifts in neighborhood change trajectory before and after natural disaster for three indicators (home values, poverty rate and racial diversity). The results find that natural disasters have a significant impact on the trend of neighborhood change, reducing variation in the indicators within neighborhood. Home values and racial diversity of neighborhoods are likely to immediately decrease after natural disasters but not to shift in subsequent rate of change,while poverty rates are likely to instantly increase in the aftermath of the disasters and to annually decline over time. This dissertation also explores the differential effects on neighborhood change according to intensity of natural disaster, neighborhoods? average income and the location. The results of the analyses are like the following: 1) the neighborhoods which the more intense disasters hit are more likely to experience the rapid decline in home values and an instant increase in their poverty rates than those which the less intense disaster hit. On the other hand, the more intense natural disasters are more likely to increase neighborhoods? racial diversity than the less intense natural disasters, while natural disasters themselves are likely to decrease it. 2) natural disasters might have the more adverse impacts on low- and high-income neighborhoods than moderate-income neighborhoods and that the impacts on low-income neighborhoods are most severe. More importantly, the adverse impacts in low-income neighborhoods might be long lasting. 3)neighborhoods in suburban areas, compared to neighborhoods in the central cities, are likely to decrease in their home values after natural disasters and to increase in their poverty rates. Finally, the findings of this dissertation confirms its main arguments that a natural disaster affects the trend of neighborhood change and intervenes in the path of change over time and that natural disasters differentially shift neighborhoods according to their characteristics. Further it suggests that these neighborhood changes, once accelerated by a natural disaster, further polarize residential populations on a metropolitan neighborhood scale.

Thesis (D.P.H.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1995. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 290-305). / Microfiche. / xix, 305 leaves, bound ill., maps 29 cm

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