Orientador: Jonas Teixeira Nery / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociências / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-24T00:48:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Malvestio_LeonidasMantovani_M.pdf: 15784697 bytes, checksum: 2397ce503ed0a4e7d0ec6d91f3a7692f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: As precipitações pluviais incidentes sobre o sudeste brasileiro são marcadas pela influência de dois tipos de sistemas atmosféricos: os tropicais e os frontais, especialmente durante os meses de primavera e de verão no Hemisfério Sul. Estes sistemas, quando associados, contribuem para a configuração da Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCAS). Definida como uma persistente faixa de nebulosidade orientada no sentido noroeste-sudeste do continente sul americano, a ZCAS demonstra ser um dos principais fenômenos atmosféricos responsáveis pelo transporte de energia e vapor de água do oeste amazônico para o sudeste do Brasil. Por permanecer semiestacionária durante vários dias, intensifica o processo de convecção e acentua a precipitação pluviométrica sobre determinadas áreas do território nacional, principalmente aquelas localizadas sobre a banda de nebulosidade. Os grandes volumes precipitados combinados à existência de elevados percentuais de urbanização e de população que vive em assentamentos precários e loteamentos irregulares distribuídos pelas encostas, planícies aluviais e setores periféricos de grandes e médias cidades torna o sudeste do país suscetível à manifestação de desastres naturais de origem hidrometeorológica, como inundações e deslizamentos de terra, os quais geram diversos prejuízos. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a variabilidade da precipitação pluvial no sudeste do Brasil durante o período chuvoso e relacioná-la com a ocorrência de desastres naturais. Assim, foram utilizados dados de 177 postos pluviométricos, com séries de 35 anos (1976-2010). Com o emprego do software R foi realizada a homogeneização dos dados pluviométricos. Informações de radiação de onda longa emergente (ROLE) e imagens de satélite, disponíveis para alguns episódios de ZCAS, permitiram identificar e localizar a atividade convectiva sobre a América do Sul e a região Sudeste. A partir dos dados pluviométricos e de ROLE elaboraram-se mapas de isolinhas através do software ArcGIS 10. Reportagens dos jornais Folha de São Paulo e O Estado de São Paulo, correspondentes ao período de atuação das ZCAS, contribuíram para diferenciar a magnitude dos desastres e a localização das áreas afetadas. O regime pluviométrico dessa região brasileira apresenta grande complexidade devido a fatores como localização latitudinal, variação topográfica e proximidade com o oceano Atlântico. Através da comparação entre mapas, dados e reportagens pode-se evidenciar que o período de verão é o mais propicio para a ocorrência de deslizamentos de terra e inundações nesta área de estudo, principalmente nas regiões metropolitanas de Belo Horizonte, de São Paulo, do Rio de Janeiro e municípios densamente povoados / Abstract: The rainfall incidents on Southeast of Brazil are marked by the influence of two kinds of atmospheric systems: Tropical and the frontal, especially during the months of spring and summer in the Southern Hemisphere. These systems, when combined, contribute to shaping the Convergence Zone of the South Atlantic (SACZ). Defined as a persistent band of cloudiness oriented northwest-southeast towards the South American continent, the SACZ proves to be major atmospheric phenomena responsible for the transport of energy and water vapor from the westerly the Amazonian to southeast of Brazil. To remain semi-stationary for several days, intensifies the process of convection and enhances rainfall in some areas of the national territory, especially those located on the bands cloudiness. The large volumes precipitates combined with the existence of high rates of urbanization and population living in slums and irregular settlements spread down the slopes, floodplains and peripheral sectors of large and medium cities makes the southeast of the country prone to natural disasters manifestation of origin hydro-meteorological such as floods and landslides, which generate many losses. The aim of this study was to analyze the variability of rainfall in southeastern Brazil in the rainy period and relate it to the occurrence of natural disasters. Thus, were used data from 177 rain gauges, with series of 35 years (1976-2010). With the use of software R was performed the homogenization of rainfall data. Longwave radiation (OLR) data and satellite images, available for some episodes SACZ enabled to identify and locate the convective activity over South America and southeast region. From the data of rainfall and OLR were prepared contour maps through ArcGIS 10 software. Newspaper reports from Folha de Sao Paulo and O Estado de Sao Paulo, corresponding to the period of activity of SACZ have contributed to differentiate the magnitude of the disasters and location of affected areas. The rainfall in this region of Brazil exhibit great complexity due to factors such as latitudinal location, topographic variation and proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. Through the comparison of maps, data and newspaper reports one can demonstrate that the summer period is the most conducive to the occurrence of landslides and floods in the study area, mostly in metropolitan areas of Belo Horizonte, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and the densely populated towns / Mestrado / Análise Ambiental e Dinâmica Territorial / Mestre em Geografia

This research concerns in a survey of natural disasters that happened in the municipality of Erechim / RS between the years 1986 to 2011.The main objectives are: to identify and quantify the disasters happened in the city over the past 25 years; to identify the seasonal year in which they occurred and the type of event that caused the largest number of disasters; to identify and map the neighborhoods that were most affected; to investigate events according to the triggering source: meteorological, hydrological and climatologically. As well as to update the existing data on the subject matter. The literature survey was the first stage of this work. After the collection of data on episodes of natural disasters in the municipality of Erechim during the timescale of this research was conducted. It was done using the following sources: the files of the county Civil Defense, which comprise the decrees of Emergency and Public Calamity, the collection of records of the Fire Department of the municipality and the local newspaper circulation. Softwares were used for mapping and field work as well. They were essential to assess the situation locus of affected sites. At the end of this research it can be concluded that in the period from 1996 to 2011 sixty-five events causing disaster happened in Erechim-RS. The majority of them are of meteorological origin as gales and hail gales or climatological as droughts. Most of these events occurred in the spring and summer. / A presente pesquisa baseia-se no levantamento dos desastres naturais que aconteceram no município de Erechim/RS entre os anos de 1986 a 2011, tendo como objetivos principais: identificar e quantificar os desastres ocorridos no município nos últimos 25 anos; identificar a época sazonal do ano em que ocorreram e tipo de evento que causou o maior número de desastres; identificar e cartografar os bairros que foram mais afetados; analisar os eventos de acordo com a sua origem desencadeadora: meteorológicos, climatológicos ou hidrológicos. Bem como, atualizar os dados já existentes sobre o assunto abordado. O levantamento bibliográfico consistiu na primeira etapa deste trabalho. Após, foi realizado o levantamento dos dados sobre os episódios de desastres naturais ocorridos no município de Erechim durante a escala temporal da presente pesquisa, utilizando as seguintes fontes de consulta: os arquivos da Defesa Civil do município, que compreendem os decretos de Situação de Emergência e de Calamidade Pública, o acervo de registros do Corpo de Bombeiros do município e os jornais de circulação local. Utilizaram-se softwares para elaboração de mapas, bem como trabalho de campo, que foi indispensável para se avaliar em lócus a situação dos locais mais afetados. Ao final dessa pesquisa pode-se concluir que no período de 1996 a 2011 ocorreram 65 eventos causadores de desastres em Erechim - RS sendo que a maioria deles são de origem meteorológica como vendavais e vendavais com granizo e climatológicos como estiagens. Grande parte destes eventos ocorreram na primavera e no verão.

v anglickém jazyce The study of sources related to the folk provenance is often in terms of the Czech historiography a neglected issue. Especially the research of folk chronicles has reached the utmost boom in the middle of the nineteenth century and then also in the interwar years. Nowadays, the study does not attract much attention. Therefore, the aim of this work is to capture and systematize the existing knowledge on this subject. Moreover, it is necessary to emphasize and show some other possibilities of dealing with these particular sources because they are valuable work for contemporary historiographical studies such as microhistorical and cultural anthropological research. Although one might think that these annals have rather a small informative value for the traditional political historical events, they offer an interesting insight into everyday life of ordinary people living in the countryside those days. This fact can definitely help one understand traditions as it also represents tendencies and trends in attitudes and behaviour of the rural society those days. The main purpose of the thesis is to consider what motivated folk authors to note down their stories and experience in chronicles. The alarming fact is that the post-war historiography has caused a lot of confusion over the true...

The thesis deals with coverage of natural disaster damages by commercial insurance. A description of natural disasters and their possible occurrence mainly in our territory in association with climate changes as the factor causing increase in their number serve as an introduction. Starting from the impact on the world and the Czech insurance sector, where the thesis deals especially with floods in 1997 and 2002, it is getting on to the analysis of the offers presented by three largest Czech insurance companies. The analysis studies the floods in 1997 and 2002 in perspective with different high-risk flood areas specified in our country. The conclusion of the thesis proposes the ways describing how to deal with risks differently, without using the insurance. The proposal advises an insurer to use such methods as reinsurance or alternative risk transfer instruments.

This thesis deals by natural disasters and solutions through commercial insurance. The introduction explains the concept of natural disaster and subsequently there are closer specified individual natural hazards. Then, the work focuses on the development of catastrophic events in the world in recent years, the consequences of their formation, their effects and the impact on these events on the world and Czech insurance. Due to the high frequency of floods in the Czech Republic in recent years, the work also addresses the issue of floods, their insurability and changes on the Czech insurance market reacting to the increased occurrence of floods. The thesis focuses on commercial property insurance products of individuals given to individual areas of different risk in terms of flooding. The analysis shows that insurers evaluate the individual risk zones in different ways and the most risk area of insurance excluded. At the end, there are evaluate the scope of insurance risk transfer to other entities, its importance and possibilities of alternative risk transfer.

Natural disasters in Argentina and Chile played a significant role in the state-formation and nation-building process (1822-1939). This dissertation explores state and society responses to earthquakes by studying public and private relief efforts reconstruction plans, crime and disorder, religious interpretations of catastrophes, national and transnational cultures of disaster, science and technology, and popular politics. Although Argentina and Chile share a political border and geological boundary, the two countries provide contrasting examples of state formation. Most disaster relief and reconstruction efforts emanated from the centralized Chilean state in Santiago. In Argentina, provincial officials made the majority of decisions in a catastrophe’s aftermath. Patriotic citizens raised money and collected clothing for survivors that helped to weave divergent regions together into a nation. The shared experience of earthquakes in all regions of Chile created a national disaster culture. Similarly, common disaster experiences, reciprocal relief efforts, and aid commissions linked Chileans with Western Argentine societies and generated a transnational disaster culture. Political leaders viewed reconstruction as opportunities to implement their visions for the nation on the urban landscape. These rebuilding projects threatened existing social hierarchies and often failed to come to fruition. Rebuilding brought new technologies from Europe to the Southern Cone. New building materials and systems, however, had to be adapted to the South American economic and natural environment. In a catastrophe’s aftermath, newspapers projected images of disorder and the authorities feared lawlessness and social unrest. Judicial and criminal records, however, show that crime often decreased after a disaster. Finally, nineteenth-century earthquakes heightened antagonism and conflict between the Catholic Church and the state. Conservative clergy asserted that disasters were divine punishments for the state’s anti-clerical measures and later railed against scientific explanations of earthquakes.

No description available.

A região do Vale do Paraíba, situada em uma planície cortada pelo Rio Paraíba do Sul, entre as Serras da Mantiqueira e do Mar, possui alternância entre períodos secos e chuvosos, alcançando cerca de 1300 mm por ano. Todas estas características físicas somadas à disposição de moradias em várzeas e áreas com alta declividade contribuem para a ocorrência de desastres naturais. Deste modo, foi realizado o levantamento da vulnerabilidade climática aos desastres naturais da região do Vale do Paraíba. A pesquisa foi dividida em duas partes, passado e futuro. No passado (1990-2008) a região apresentou municípios vulneráveis aos desastres naturais como São José dos Campos, Jacareí, Campos dos Jordão, Taubaté e Aparecida. Os desastres naturais de maior ocorrência foram às inundações (54%) e as tempestades severas (25%) com maior frequência nos meses de janeiro, fevereiro e março. Para o futuro foram analisados dados de precipitação (2070-2100) para os cenários A2 e B2, a partir dos dados de simulação climática futura, modelo ETA/CCS, pela técnica de downscaling dinâmico, o modelo apontou para redução da precipitação na região, sendo de 44% para o cenário A2 e 35% para o cenário B2. Além da redução no total de precipitação, os dados futuros apontam para o aumento do período de dias de permanência de chuva, com predomínio de chuvas leves (0,1 a 5 mm), ou seja, haverá redução nos eventos extremos de precipitação, o que contribuiria para a diminuição de processos geradores de desastres naturais na região do Vale do Paraíba. / The region of Paraíba Valley, situated on a plain crossed by Paraiba do Sul River, between Mantiqueira and Mar mountain rigdes, alternates dry and wet periods, getting about 1300 mm of rain per year. The physical characteristics combined with the location of homes in low and flat lands alongside a watercourse and in areas with steep slopes contribute to the occurrence of natural disasters. This study of climate vulnerability and natural disasters in the region of Paraíba Valley. This research is divided into two parts: past and future. In the past (1990-2008) the region has vulnerable cities to natural disasters. Such as São José dos Campos, Jacareí, Campos do Jordão, Taubaté, and Aparecida. In these cities, the predominant natural disasters were floods (54%) and severe storms (25%) that occur frequently in the months of January, February and March. For the future precipitation data modeled (2070-2100) were analyzed for the scenarios A2 and B2 of IPCC, from the data of future climate simulation, (ETA / CCS model) by applying the dynamic downscaling technique. The model indicates reduced precipitation in the region (44% for A2 scenario and 35% for scenario B2). Besides the reduction in total precipitation, the future data point to the increase in the number of rainy days with the predominancy of ligth rains (0.1 to 5 mm), so, it will have a reduction in extreme precipitation events that could contribute to a decrease of natural disaster generating processes in the region of Paraíba Valley.

The tourism sector in Stockholms city, Sweden, is a dynamic industry that through the years has generated large revenues and job openings. Unpredictable events such as terrorism, pandemics, natural disasters and climate changes, may have great imapct on the tourism sector. This may be true to most cities in the world including Stockholm. in this thesis, the effect of various unpredictable events has been investigated through interviews with city of Stockholm and the authority for community protection and preparedness. In use of strenghts, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT-analys). The main conclusion of this thesis is that the Covid-19 pandemic (year 2020) has shown that the emergency preparations for unpredictable events are incorrectly dimensiond. This means that the city of Stockholm needs to work more proactively in the future to ensure that the tourism sector is not jeopardized during upcoming unpredictable events.

La thèse étudie le risque météorologique et économique sous différents angles principalement dans les pays en développement. Elle se décompose en trois chapitres indépendants analysant dans diverses situations la corrélation des risques liés aux aléas météorologique et climatique ou économique, et étudie le potentiel de la région géographique étudiée pour mettre en place un système d’assurance contre le risque étudié. En effet, cette thèse étudie des risques très susceptibles d’être fortement corrélés : que cela concerne le risque météorologique ou climatique, ou le risque lié à la volatilité des prix, les villes voire pays voisins sont exposés aux mêmes risques et de façon simultanée. Cet aspect essentiel compromet la mutualisation du risque, paramètre primordial du modèle économique de l’assurance. A travers les trois chapitres de la thèse, nous étudierons le bénéfice lié à la mutualisation de ces risques a priori relativement corrélés. Le premier chapitre étudie la corrélation des prix du maïs en Tanzanie. A l’aide d’un modèle Copula-GARCH, la dépendance entre les cours du maïs des 20 marchés principaux du pays est modélisée et nous pouvons voir si le prix moyen du maïs est lissé en agrégeant les marchés. Cela permet de voir si l’intégration des marchés permet une efficace mutualisation du risque lié à la volatilité des prix. Le second chapitre s’attache au risque cyclonique dans les îles Pacifique sud et son impact sur les infrastructures. Ce papier propose une modélisation des cyclones tropicaux dans la région étudiée et la distribution de probabilité des cyclones associés à leur force, permettant ainsi de tenir compte du climat actuel pour modéliser les coûts. Avec les données liées aux infrastructures, nous calculons le coût des cyclones, y compris pour les événements extrêmes de très faible probabilité. Le troisième chapitre propose une extension d’un émulateur statistique des rendements agricoles selon des variables climatiques. Nous modélisons l’impact de l’accroissement marginal de la température, des précipitations ou de la concentration en CO2 en faisant une estimation statistique sur des modèles de culture et non sur des données historiques. Cela permet de prendre en compte des effets extrêmes sur des valeurs météorologiques pas ou peu observées jusqu’à présent. La robustesse du modèle est évaluée, entre autres, à l’aide de copules pour comparer la dépendance spatiale entre le modèle et notre émulateur statistique et vérifier que notre estimation capture bien la dépendance géographique. / The PhD dissertation studies meteorological and economic hazard under different angles and mostly in developing countries. It is composed of three independent chapters analyzing different situations dealing with meteorological and climatic or economic hazard correlation. It estimates the potential of the studied regions for implementing an insurance scheme for the risk. Indeed, this thesis studies risks very likely to be highly correlated: whether this is for the meteorological or climatic hazard, or the price volatility risk, neighbored cities or even countries are exposed to the same risk simultaneously. This essential aspect jeopardizes risk mutualization, a key parameter of the economic insurance model. Through the three chapters of this thesis, we study the benefits linked to the mutualization of a priori correlated risks. The first chapter deals with maize price correlation in Tanzania. Using a Copula-GARCH model, we model the dependence among the 20 main markets of the country and assess if the mean maize price is smoothed by aggregating the markets. Hence, we see whether markets integration allows an efficient risk mutualization against the risk of price volatility. The second chapter deals with tropical storms risk in the South Pacific islands and their impact on infrastructures. This paper proposes an artificial tropical cyclones modeling in the region studied as well as the probability distribution of the cyclone’s occurrence and strength. This enables us accounting for the current climate for modeling costs. With data on infrastructures, we calculate the cost due to tropical storms, including for very low probability extreme events. The third chapter proposes an extension for a statistical emulator of crop yields depending climatic variables. We model the marginal impact of an increase of temperature, precipitations and CO2 concentration by running a statistical estimation on crop models rather than historical data. It allows accounting for extreme effects caused by meteorological data values not observed so far. The model robustness is assessed, among others, with copulas to compare the spatial dependence between the model and our statistical emulator and check that our estimation captures the geographic dependence.