abstract: Small island developing states (SIDS) are on the very frontlines of climate change (UNDP, 2017). Increasing attention on the unique social, economic, and environmental vulnerabilities SIDS face has led to the discussion of the overall resilience of this population. Specifically, post-disaster studies of resilience carried out on SIDS have pointed to social resilience and education as two primary indicators of the overall resilience of these vulnerable communities (Aldrich, 2012; Muttarak & Lutz, 2014); yet social aspects of resilience related to SIDS have been underexplored, in comparison to ecological and economic themes (Berkes & Ross, 2013). Thus, the purpose of this qualitative study was to explore the personal and professional lived-natural disaster experiences of SIDS residents who are educators in order to understand their role in building social resilience within their community. In-depth interviews were conducted with educators employed at public and private schools in the United States Virgin Islands. The findings indicate that residents who are educators conceptualized resilience according to the following themes and sub-themes: (1) Social Process which involves Social Recovery and Community Alliances to ‘bounce back’ to an undefined level of normalcy and (2) Embodied Identity which was described in terms of Community Personifications of resilience as a trait in general citizens and educators. Participants identified internal and external resources as influential in how residents responded to natural disasters, by so doing, significantly contributing to positive post-disaster outcomes; these resources are referred to in the literature as protective factors (Rutter, 1985). The findings also demonstrate that educators had both a personal and professional responsibility to help their community contend with disasters, and this outcome is best explicated through the concept of protective factors. The research findings are significant because they: (1) contribute to the limited body of literature on social resilience in small island developing states, (2) demonstrate the importance of subjective perspectives in the development of disaster preparedness and management strategies for climate-vulnerable island populations, and (3) indicate a need for future research to use terminology which acknowledges the many ways in which disaster-prone communities have historically demonstrated and/or embodied resilience. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Community Resources and Development 2020

The Caribbean is a complex region that heavily relies on its seasonal rainfall cycle for its economic and societal needs. This makes the Caribbean especially susceptible to hydro-meteorological disasters (e.g., droughts and floods), and other weather/climate risks. Therefore, effectively predicting the Caribbean rainfall cycle is valuable for the region. The efficacy of predicting the Caribbean rainfall cycle is largely dependent on effectively characterizing the climate dynamics of the region. However, the dynamical processes and climate drivers that shape the seasonal cycle are not fully understood, as previous observational studies show inconsistent findings as to what mechanisms influence the mean state and variability of the cycle. These inconsistencies can be attributed to the limitations previous studies have when investigating the Caribbean rainfall cycle, such as using monthly or longer resolutions in the data or analysis that often mask the seasonal transitions and regional differences of rainfall, and investigating the Caribbean under a basin-wide lens rather than a sub-regional lens. This inhibits the ability to accurately calculate and predict subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) rainfall characteristics in the region. To address these limitations and inconsistencies, the research in this thesis examines the seasonal climatology, variability, and characteristics of the Caribbean rainfall cycle under a sub-regional and temporally fine lens in order to investigate the prediction of the cycle. Regional variations and dynamical processes of the Caribbean annual rainfall cycle are assessed using (1) a principal component analysis across Caribbean stations using daily observed precipitation data; and, (2) a moisture budget analysis. The results show that the seasonal cycle of rainfall in the Caribbean hinges on three main facilitators of moisture convergence: the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the Eastern Pacific ITCZ, and the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH). A warm body of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean basin known as the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) and a low-level jet centered at 925hPa over the Caribbean Sea known as the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ) modify the extent of moisture provided by these main facilitators. The interactions of these dynamical processes are responsible for shaping the seasonal components of the annual rainfall cycle: The Winter Dry Season (WDS; mid-November to April); the Early-Rainy Season (ERS; mid-April to mid-June); an intermittent relatively dry period known as the mid-summer drought, (MSD; mid-June to late August), and the Late-Rainy Season (LRS; late August to late November). Five geographical sub-regions are identified in the Caribbean Islands, each with its unique set of dynamical processes, and consequently, its unique pattern of rainfall distribution throughout the rainy season: Northwestern Caribbean, the Western Caribbean, the Central Caribbean, the Central and Southern Lesser Antilles, and Trinidad and Tobago and Guianas. Convergence by sub-monthly transients contributes little to Caribbean rainfall. The wettest and driest Caribbean ERS and LRS years’ are then explored by conducting the following: (1) a spatial composite of rainfall using the daily rainfall data; and, (2) spatial composites of SSTs, sea-level pressure (SLP), and mean flow moisture convergence and transports using monthly data. The ERS and LRS are impacted in distinctly different ways by two different, and largely independent, large-scale phenomena, external to the region: a SLP dipole mode of variability in the North Atlantic known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Dry ERS years are associated with a persistent dipole of cold and warm SSTs over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, respectively, that are caused by a preceding positive NAO state. This setting involves a wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback expressed in enhanced trade winds and consequently, moisture transport divergence over all of the Caribbean, except in portions of the Northwestern Caribbean in May. A contribution from the preceding winter cold ENSO event is also discernible during dry ERS years. Dry LRS years are due to the summertime onset of an El Niño event, developing an inter-basin SLP pattern that moves moisture out of the Caribbean, except in portions of the Northwestern Caribbean in November. Both large-scale climate drivers would have the opposite effect during their opposite phases leading to wet years in both seasons. Existing methodologies that calculate S2S rainfall characteristics were not found to be suitable for a region like the Caribbean, given its complex rainfall pattern; therefore, a novel and comprehensive method is devised and utilized to calculate onset, demise, and MSD characteristics in the Caribbean. When applying the method to calculate S2S characteristics in the Caribbean, meteorological onsets and demises, which are calculated via each year’s ERS and LRS mean thresholds, effectively characterize the seasonal evolution of mean onsets and demises in the Caribbean. The year-to-year variability of MSD characteristics, and onsets and demises that are calculated by climatological ERS and LRS mean thresholds resemble the variability of seasonal rainfall totals in the Caribbean and are statistically significantly correlated with the identified dynamical processes that impact each seasonal component of the rainfall cycle. Finally, the seasonal prediction of the Caribbean rainfall cycle is assessed using the identified variables that could provide predictive skill of S2S rainfall characteristics in the region. Canonical correlation analysis is used to predict seasonal rainfall characteristics of station-averaged sub-regional frequency and intensity of the ERS and LRS wet days, and magnitude of the MSD. Predictor fields are based on observations from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and GCM output from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). Spearman Correlation and Relative Operating Characteristics are applied to assess the forecast skill. The use of SLP, 850-hPa zonal winds (u850), vertically integrated zonal (UQ), and meridional (VQ) moisture fluxes show comparable, if not better, forecast skill than SSTs, which is the most common predictor field for regional statistical prediction. Generally, the highest ERS predictive skill is found for the frequency of wet days, and the highest LRS predictive skill is found for the intensity of wet days. Rainfall characteristics in the Central and Eastern Caribbean have statistically significant predictive skill. Forecast skill of rainfall characteristics in the Northwestern and Western Caribbean are lower and less consistent. The sub-regional differences and consistently significant skill across lead times up to at least two months can be attributed to persistent SST/SLP anomalies during the ERS that resemble the North Atlantic Oscillation pattern, and the summer-time onset of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation during the LRS. The spatial pattern of anomalies during the MSD bears resemblance to both the ERS and LRS spatial patterns. The findings from this thesis provide a more comprehensive and complete understanding of the climate dynamics, variability, and annual mean state of the Caribbean rainfall cycle. These results have important implications for prediction, decision-making, modeling capabilities, understanding the genesis of hydro-meteorological disasters, investigating rainfall under other modes of variability, and Caribbean impact studies regarding weather risks and future climate.

Thesis advisor: Rebekah L. Coley / Recent decades have witnessed the increasing spatial concentration of poverty and affluence in the United States (Biscoff & Reardon, 2013). Given well-documented links between neighborhood economic contexts and wellbeing (Chow et al., 2005), this has the potential to exacerbate disparities in health, particularly for people with limited neighborhood choice. However, limited research has systematically examined the neighborhood features underlying these links. A more nuanced understanding of why neighborhood poverty matters is essential for promoting equitable neighborhood development. Using rigorous analytic techniques that account for the dynamic nature of neighborhoods and help adjust for selection bias, I considered two complementary questions: 1) do observed neighborhood resources and stressors mediate associations between neighborhood poverty and wellbeing within and between individuals; and 2) how do observed versus perceived changes in neighborhood features mediate links between neighborhood poverty and wellbeing? I combined individual-level longitudinal data from the Post-Katrina Study of Resilience and Recovery with administrative neighborhood data drawn from the Census Bureau, FBI, and EPA. Analyses focused on a sample of 606 participants – primarily young Black mothers with low levels of income – who were affected by Hurricane Katrina, most of whom experienced some period of forced relocation. Participants were surveyed once before (2003/04) and twice after (2006/07; 2009) the hurricane. Results paint a complex picture. Contrasting with prior research, total effects of neighborhood poverty on wellbeing were limited. However, changes in neighborhood poverty were linked to wellbeing indirectly through intermediary neighborhood features, with results pointing to benefits and detriments of rising neighborhood poverty. Results were driven by those who changed neighborhoods over the course of the study. For participants that lived in the same New Orleans neighborhood across waves, changes in neighborhood poverty proved less consequential. Overall, results suggest that rather than treating neighborhood poverty as uniformly problematic for wellbeing, efforts to promote health equity should identify and build upon existing assets of neighborhoods, like affordability and amenity access, while also reducing stressors. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2021. / Submitted to: Boston College. Lynch School of Education. / Discipline: Counseling, Developmental and Educational Psychology.

En el Perú, existe una gran necesidad de reducir el impacto de los desastres naturales ocasionados por el fenómeno El Niño, ya que genera cuantiosas pérdidas, algunas pueden ser tanto humanas como materiales. Este evento hidro-climático, que azotó al país por última vez en el año 2017, evidenció que no existen soluciones tecnológicas para reducir las consecuencias de este tipo de acontecimientos. Por tal motivo, el presente proyecto pretende, analizar los principales peligros e impacto de los desastres naturales del fenómeno “El Niño” en el Perú, la aplicación de las TIC que hoy en día se utilizan en la gestión de desastres naturales, el diseño de un catálogo de soluciones tecnológicas incluyendo para cada una su arquitectura física y el costo aproximado de implementación, la validación de las soluciones tecnológicas a través de expertos en desastres climatológicos e investigación tecnológica, y por último, definir una hoja de ruta para la implementación de las soluciones tecnológicas propuestas. Se espera que el catálogo ayude a las entidades peruanas públicas o privadas, encargadas de la gestión de desastres naturales, a poner en marcha soluciones TIC que supongan una mejora y un mejor resultado en la atención de desastres sin necesidad de tener un amplio conocimiento sobre las TIC y que brinden una gama de posibilidades tanto en la diversidad de componentes que conforma cada solución tecnológica y costos. / In Peru, there is a great need to reduce the impact of natural disasters caused by the El Niño southern oscillation phenomenon (ENSO), since it generates large losses both human and material. This hydro-climatic event, which hit the country for the last time in 2017, showed that there are no technological solutions to reduce the consequences of this type of events. For this reason, this project aims to analyze the main dangers and impact of natural disasters of the "El Niño" phenomenon in Peru, the application of ICT that are used today in the management of natural disasters, design a catalog of technological solutions including, for each one, its physical architecture and the approximate cost of implementation, the validation of the technological solutions through experts in climatological disasters and technological research, and finally, define a Roadmap for the proposed technological solutions. It is expected that the catalog will help Peruvian public or private entities, in charge of natural disaster management, to implement ICT solutions that will improve and improve disaster response without needing to have extensive knowledge about the ICT and that offer a range of possibilities both in the diversity of components that make up each technological solution and costs. / Tesis

Una de las preocupaciones que mayormente tienen los países en vías de desarrollo es el efecto de los desastres naturales sobre la educación. Por este motivo, la presente investigación realiza un análisis del efecto de los desastres naturales: Heladas e inundaciones, sobre la generación de resultados educativos, medido como puntaje de pruebas estandarizadas de matemática y lenguaje. Además, se analiza si la tipología de estos desastres podría implicar resultados diferenciados. Para ello, se aplica un modelo de efectos aleatorios con una base de datos panel disponible del estudio Young Lives (Niños del Milenio). En efecto, el estudio confirma la hipótesis de que los desastres naturales evaluados influyen en los resultados educativos por el lado de riqueza del hogar y estado de salud del estudiante. / One of the concerns that developing countries have mostly is the effect of natural disasters on education. Therefore, the present investigation carries out an analysis of the effect of natural disasters: Frost and floods, on the generation of educational results, measured as a standardized math and language test score. Furthermore, whether the typology of these disasters could imply differentiated results. For this, a random effects model is applied with a panel database available from the Young Lives study. Hence, the study confirms the hypothesis that the natural disasters evaluated influence educational outcomes on the side of household wealth and student health status. / Trabajo de investigación

La gestión de desastres en el Perú es necesaria para poder superar los diversos fenómenos a los que nuestro país es propenso. Sin embargo, esta es aún incipiente e incompleta. Uno de estos casos es el que se presenta en esta investigación. Una mina informal ubicada en la región de La Libertad, en el distrito de Pataz ha estado vertiendo desmontes (material de desecho) sobre un talud natural y ha llegado a un punto crítico de deslizamiento inminente. El depósito es de 35,000 m3 aproximadamente y está ubicado sobre un pueblo habitado. Por ello, esta tesis plantea realizar un análisis del riesgo, estudiando el peligro y su naturaleza, y el nivel de vulnerabilidad de los afectados. Para ello seguimos manuales del estado peruano de análisis de riesgo y le añadimos criterios geotécnicos y análisis de estabilidad de taludes en su condición estática y pseudo estática. Finalmente, se proponen formas de mitigar el riesgo de deslizamiento. En el capítulo uno se revisa conceptos teóricos sobre estabilidad de taludes, resistencia al corte, equilibrio límite. Además, se revisa la realidad de la informalidad en el Perú. Finalmente, se definen conceptos que ayudan al análisis del riesgo. En el segundo capítulo se explica la metodología a aplicar tanto para el análisis de estabilidad de taludes como para el proceso de análisis de riesgo. En el tercer capítulo se alcanzan los detalles propios de la zona de estudio, así las investigaciones y ensayos realizados a los componentes geotécnicos presentes. En el cuarto capítulo se hace el desarrollo del análisis de estabilidad, explicando los resultados y las hipótesis tomadas. En el quinto capítulo se desarrolla todo el análisis del riesgo; explicando paso a paso la valoración de la peligrosidad y de la vulnerabilidad. / Disaster management in Peru is necessary to overcome the various phenomena to which our country is prone. However, this is still incipient and incomplete. One of these cases is the one we studied in this investigation. An informal mine located in the region of La Libertad, in the district of Pataz, has been pouring waste material over a natural slope and has reached a critical point of impending landslide. The volume deposit is approximately 35,000 m3 and is located on an inhabited town. Therefore, this thesis proposes an analysis of the risk, studying the danger and its nature, and the level of vulnerability of those affected. For this, we follow risk analysis manuals of the Peruvian state and add geotechnical criteria and slope stability analysis in its static and pseudo static condition. Finally, ways of mitigating the risk of slipping are proposed. In chapter one, theoretical concepts on slope stability, shear strength, limit balance are reviewed. In addition, the reality of informality in Peru is reviewed. Finally, concepts that help to analyses the risk are defined. The second chapter explains the methodology to be applied for slope stability analysis and for the risk analysis process. In the third chapter, the details of the study area are reached as well as the investigations and tests carried out on the geotechnical components present. In the fourth chapter the development of the stability analysis is done, explaining the results and the hypotheses taken. The entire risk analysis is developed in the fifth chapter, step by step, explaining the assessment of danger and vulnerability. / Tesis

[pt] Pontes transportáveis para uso em caso de desastres naturais são geralmente estruturas pesadas, com altos custos de fabricação e exigem mão de obra qualificada para montagem, limitando o alcance de seu uso, especialmente em locais carentes de recursos. Dessa forma, este trabalho tem como objetivo desenvolver uma solução de ponte dobrável leve, fácil de construir, transportar e montar, sendo feita, principalmente, de bambu, um material com elevada relação resistência/peso e sustentável. O trabalho discute aspectos relevantes sobre o comportamento de estruturas pantográficas existentes, bem como sobre as principais características mecânicas e físicas do bambu, especificamente da espécie Guadua Angustifolia Kunth utilizada na pesquisa. Em uma primeira etapa, a fim de se avaliar a viabilidade do material escolhido, um programa experimental incluindo ensaios de flexão, fluência e dois diferentes tipos de ensaios de compressão foi conduzido. Ensaios feitos após ciclos de imersão e secagem com o intuito de avaliar o efeito de chuvas reincidentes sobre o material também foram realizados. Ensaios para determinação de coeficiente de atrito entre cordas de nylon e o bambu também foram realizados para estabelecer parâmetros adequados para avaliação da resistência das ligações amarradas. Num segundo estágio, o projeto da estrutura é apresentado e discutido, destacando o comportamento das ligações nas fases de desdobramento, protensão e final. Por fim, análises estruturais estáticas e dinâmicas foram realizadas com auxílio de modelos computacionais para as diferentes fases de montagem, apontando para a viabilidade da ponte proposta. / [en] Transportable bridges for natural disaster relief are usually heavy, have higher fabrication costs and demand qualified professionals for assembly. These disadvantages limit the reach of their benefits, especially in places with little available resources. The objective of this work is to develop a bridge designed to be lightweight, easy-to-build, -transport and –assembly and also mainly made of bamboo, a cheap sustainable material with high strength/weight ratio. This work discusses relevant aspects regarding the mechanics of existing pantographic structures, as well as the main mechanical and physical properties of bamboo, more specifically the species Guadua Angustifolia Kunth used in this research. At first, to evaluate the viability of the chosen material, an experimental program including bending, creep and two different types of compression tests was carried out. Tests after wet-and-dry cycles, considering the possible effects of repeated rain to exposed bamboo, were also performed. Tests to determine the friction coefficient between nylon ropes and bamboo were also carried to obtain parameters necessary to assess the strength of tied bamboo joints. After that, the structural design is presented and discussed, exploring the mechanics of the proposed connections and their behavior at the deployment stage, pre-stressing stage and final stage. At last, static and dynamic structural analysis were made with numeric models to all development stages, confirming the viability of the proposed bridge.

My starting point was to gain an understanding of how humanitarian aid was organized in Tacloban City after the disaster of typhoon Haiyan. Two specific sectors has been studied; Camp Coordination and Camp Management (CCCM) and Emergency Shelter. As basic parameters the Sphere Handbook (The Sphere Project) served as a guideline, a set of minimum standards of humanitarian response compiled by different humanitarian agencies with the aim to improve the quality of humanitarian assistance. Large parts of the city's urban land area is currently located in a geographic location that poses a significant risk in terms of vulnerability to floods, landslides and storm winds. A summary of risk analysis indicates that a specific area of land south-west of today's city center are more suited as a development site in terms of reduced vulnerability. The strategies of resistance against the forces of nature for the city of Tacloban are divided into four different scales from macro to micro; City, Barangay (the smallest administrative division within the Philippine municipality system), Sitio (territorial enclave inside a barangay) and the private home. / Min utgångspunkt har varit att få en uppfattning kring hur det humanitära biståndet anordnades i staden Tacloban efter naturkatastrofen Haiyan. Två specifika sektorer har undersökts; ”Camp Coordination and Camp Management (CCCM)” och ”Emergency Shelter”. Som riktlinje och grundläggande parameter har jag använt ”The Sphere Handbook” (The Sphere Project), en uppsättning grundläggande standarder som sammanställts av olika humanitära organisationer med målet att förbättra kvaliteten på det humanitära biståndet.Stora delar av Taclobans urbana landområde befinner sig inom ett geografiskt område som utgör en betydande risk vad gäller sårbarhet för översvämningar, jordskred och stormvindar. En sammanställning av riskanalyser visar att ett specifikt landområde sydväst om dagens centrum är mer lämpat som en framtida plats för stadsutveckling. I mitt arbete har jag utvecklat strategier för att staden skall kunna motstå naturens krafter inför ett liknande framtida scenario. Tacloban har delats in i fyra olika skalor från makro till mikro;Staden, Barangay-området (den minsta administrativa divisionen inom det filippinskakommun- systemet), Sitio (territoriell enklav inom ett barangay-område) och det enskilda hemmet.

Seagrass meadows, like coral reefs, are in decline globally but are often neglected in marine policy and conservation despite their equally critical ecosystem services. Both habitats can be heavily impacted by wave surges, rainfall-induced earth movement and flooding, changes to water temperature, salinity, and acidity, and increased levels of turbidity—all occurring at increased rates due to a changing global climate. We demonstrate that multispectral satellite imagery, geospatial tools, and classification techniques can be used to inform management by identifying and quantifying changes in seagrass distribution and the presence of sediment-related threats. Results from Dominica indicate near-shore seagrass habitat area increased by 195.7 hectares between 2016 and 2019, suggesting a continued expansion of Halophila stipulacea. Further analysis showed 22.4 hectares of accreted coastal sediment and 1362.2 hectares of suspended sediment captured, placing 424.4 hectares of sensitive reef area at risk of experiencing tissue abrasion or reduced photosynthetic activity. Our methods can be used by marine resource managers and policy makers to inform decisions relating to fisheries production, emissions trading, disaster risk mitigation, and invasive species monitoring, facilitating sustainable growth in the blue economy.

This study aims to explore if learning through policy change is possible after natural disastersoccur. Previous studies are divided concerning if natural disasters in fact lead to learning or policy change taking place. Thomas Birkland and his theory on “event related learning” suggest that it is possible for learning to take place after a ”focusing event” has occurred, which in turn forces policy to change. Through an operationalization of Birkland’s concept of learning, this study seeks to explore how learning can be understood to have occurred, due to and during the 10 years after the earthquake struck Haiti in 2010. The study concludes that there are many different indicators through multiple different sectors that suggest both learning and policy change has taken place on Haiti, due to the earthquake that occurred in 2010, viewed through Birkland’s theory of learning.