Neste trabalho discutimos a análise bayesiana em modelos TRI (Teoria da Resposta ao Item) de três parâmetros com respostas binárias e ordinais, considerando a ligação probito. Em ambos os casos usamos técnicas baseadas em MCCM (método de Monte Carlo baseado em Cadeias de Markov) para estimação dos parâmetros dos itens. No modelo com respostas binárias, consideramos dois conjuntos de dados resultantes de provas com itens de múltipla-escolha. Para esses dados, foi feito um estudo da sensibilidade à escolha de distribuições a priori, além de uma análise das estimativas a posteriori para os parâmetros dos itens: discriminação, dificuldade e probabilidade de acerto ao acaso. Um terceiro conjunto de dados foi utilizado no estudo do modelo com respostas ordinais. Estes dados são provenientes de uma disciplina básica de estatística, onde a prova contêm itens dissertativos. As respostas foram classificadas nas categorias: certa, errada ou parcialmente certa. Utilizamos o programa WinBugs para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo binário e a função MCMCordfactanal do programa R para estimar os parâmetros do modelo ordinal. Ambos os softwares são não proprietários e gratuitos (livres). / In this dissertation the bayesian analysis for three parameters IRT (Item Response Theory) models with binaries and ordinals responses, considering the probit model, was discussed. For both cases, binary and ordinal, techniques based on MCCM (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) were used to estimate the items parameters. For binary response model, was considered two data sets from tests with multipla choices items. For these two data sets, a sensibility study of the priori distributions choice was considered, and also, an analyses of a posteriori estimates of the items parameters: discrimination, difficulties and guessing. A third data set is used to ilustrate the ordinal response model. This come from an elementar statistical course, where a test with open items is considered. The responses are classified in the following categories: correct, wrong or partial correct. The WinBugs software was used to estimate the parameters for the binary model and, for the ordinal model was considered the function MCMCordfactanal from R program.

The Brisbane Longitudinal Twin Study (BLTS) was being conducted in Australia and was funded by the US National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA). Adolescent twins were sampled as a part of this study and surveyed about their substance use as part of the Pathways to Cannabis Use, Abuse and Dependence project. The methods developed in this dissertation were designed for the purpose of analyzing a subset of the Pathways data that includes demographics, cannabis use metrics, personality measures, and imputed genotypes (SNPs) for 493 complete twin pairs (986 subjects.) The primary goal was to determine what combination of SNPs and additional covariates may predict cannabis use, measured on an ordinal scale as: “never tried,” “used moderately,” or “used frequently”. To conduct this analysis, we extended the ordinal Generalized Monotone Incremental Forward Stagewise (GMIFS) method for mixed models. This extension includes allowance for a unpenalized set of covariates to be coerced into the model as well as flexibility for user-specified correlation patterns between twins in a family. The proposed methods are applicable to high-dimensional (genomic or otherwise) data with ordinal response and specific, known covariance structure within clusters.

The estimation of latent variable models with ordinal and continuous, or ranking variables is the research focus of this thesis. The existing estimation methods are discussed and a composite likelihood approach is developed. The main advantages of the new method are its low computational complexity which remains unchanged regardless of the model size, and that it yields an asymptotically unbiased, consistent, and normally distributed estimator. The thesis consists of four papers. The first one investigates the two main formulations of the unrestricted Thurstonian model for ranking data along with the corresponding identification constraints. It is found that the extra identifications constraints required in one of them lead to unreliable estimates unless the constraints coincide with the true values of the fixed parameters. In the second paper, a pairwise likelihood (PL) estimation is developed for factor analysis models with ordinal variables. The performance of PL is studied in terms of bias and mean squared error (MSE) and compared with that of the conventional estimation methods via a simulation study and through some real data examples. It is found that the PL estimates and standard errors have very small bias and MSE both decreasing with the sample size, and that the method is competitive to the conventional ones. The results of the first two papers lead to the next one where PL estimation is adjusted to the unrestricted Thurstonian ranking model. As before, the performance of the proposed approach is studied through a simulation study with respect to relative bias and relative MSE and in comparison with the conventional estimation methods. The conclusions are similar to those of the second paper. The last paper extends the PL estimation to the whole structural equation modeling framework where data may include both ordinal and continuous variables as well as covariates. The approach is demonstrated through an example run in R software. The code used has been incorporated in the R package lavaan (version 0.5-11).

The dynamics around managing urban infrastructure are changing dramatically. Today’s infrastructure management challenges – in the wake of shrinking coffers and stricter stakeholders’ requirements – include finding better condition assessment tools and prediction models, and effective and intelligent use of hard-earn data to ensure the sustainability of urban infrastructure systems. Wastewater collection networks – an important and critical component of urban infrastructure – have been neglected, and as a result, municipalities in North America and other parts of the world have accrued significant liabilities and infrastructure deficits. To reduce cost of ownership, to cope with heighten accountability, and to provide reliable and sustainable service, these systems need to be managed in an effective and intelligent manner. The overall objective of this research is to present a new strategic management framework and related tools to support multi-perspective maintenance, rehabilitation and replacement (M, R&R) planning for wastewater collection networks. The principal objectives of this research include: (1) Developing a comprehensive wastewater collection network asset database consisting of high quality condition assessment data to support the work presented in this thesis, as well as, the future research in this area. (2) Proposing a framework and related system to aggregate heterogeneous data from municipal wastewater collection networks to develop better understanding of their historical and future performance. (3) Developing statistical models to understand the deterioration of wastewater pipelines. (4) To investigate how strategic management principles and theories can be applied to effectively manage wastewater collection networks, and propose a new management framework and related system. (5) Demonstrating the application of strategic management framework and economic principles along with the proposed deterioration model to develop long-term financial sustainability plans for wastewater collection networks. A relational database application, WatBAMS (Waterloo Buried Asset Management System), consisting of high quality data from the City of Niagara Falls wastewater collection system is developed. The wastewater pipelines’ inspections were completed using a relatively new Side Scanner and Evaluation Technology camera that has advantages over the traditional Closed Circuit Television cameras. Appropriate quality assurance and quality control procedures were developed and adopted to capture, store and analyze the condition assessment data. To aggregate heterogeneous data from municipal wastewater collection systems, a data integration framework based on data warehousing approach is proposed. A prototype application, BAMS (Buried Asset Management System), based on XML technologies and specifications shows implementation of the proposed framework. Using wastewater pipelines condition assessment data from the City of Niagara Falls wastewater collection network, the limitations of ordinary and binary logistic regression methodologies for deterioration modeling of wastewater pipelines are demonstrated. Two new empirical models based on ordinal regression modeling technique are proposed. A new multi-perspective – that is, operational/technical, social/political, regulatory, and finance – strategic management framework based on modified balanced-scorecard model is developed. The proposed framework is based on the findings of the first Canadian National Asset Management workshop held in Hamilton, Ontario in 2007. The application of balanced-scorecard model along with additional management tools, such as strategy maps, dashboard reports and business intelligence applications, is presented using data from the City of Niagara Falls. Using economic principles and example management scenarios, application of Monte Carlo simulation technique along with the proposed deterioration model is presented to forecast financial requirements for long-term M, R&R plans for wastewater collection networks. A myriad of asset management systems and frameworks were found for transportation infrastructure. However, to date few efforts have been concentrated on understanding the performance behaviour of wastewater collection systems, and developing effective and intelligent M, R&R strategies. Incomplete inventories, and scarcity and poor quality of existing datasets on wastewater collection systems were found to be critical and limiting issues in conducting research in this field. It was found that the existing deterioration models either violated model assumptions or assumptions could not be verified due to limited and questionable quality data. The degradation of Reinforced Concrete pipes was found to be affected by age, whereas, for Vitrified Clay pipes, the degradation was not age dependent. The results of financial simulation model show that the City of Niagara Falls can save millions of dollars, in the long-term, by following a pro-active M, R&R strategy. The work presented in this thesis provides an insight into how an effective and intelligent management system can be developed for wastewater collection networks. The proposed framework and related system will lead to the sustainability of wastewater collection networks and assist municipal public works departments to proactively manage their wastewater collection networks.

This thesis examines 5-year clinical and health-economic outcomes of ischaemic stroke, and their relationship to short-term post-stroke disability, as captured by the 3-month modified Rankin Scale (mRS) - the favoured primary outcome measure in acute stroke trials. I use data from the Oxford Vascular Study (recruited 2002-2014), a population-based prospective cohort for which I followed patients in-person and via medical records until 15-May-2017. I demonstrate that 3-month mRS strongly predicts 5-year post-stroke disability and mortality, including in clinically-relevant groups (treatable major strokes, atrial fibrillation-related strokes, and lacunar strokes), reaffirming its use as a trial outcome measure. About one in four patients experience functional recovery between 3-12 months post-stroke, and mortality follow-up beyond 1-year by stroke trials can show translation of early disability gains into lower mortality. Contrary to previously reported apparent sex-differences, I find no evidence of worse outcomes in women after accounting for differences in age and pre-stroke mRS. I find that late recovery between 3-12 months occurs more often in lacunar strokes, supporting the focus of restorative therapies in this group, but highlighting that uncontrolled studies cannot assume that improvements after 3-months are treatment-related. In addition, I demonstrate that like death/disability, outcomes of institutionalization, post-stroke dementia, health/social-care costs, and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) also show meaningful differences with each step up the mRS ladder. Consequently, ordinal analysis of the 3-month mRS (capturing transitions across the scale's range) better predicts long-term outcomes than dichotomous approaches, which also foster high exclusion rates of relevant patient segments from trials owing to their pre-morbid disability. However, the mRS should be weighted in ordinal analyses, as different state transitions carry different implications for long-term outcomes. Using 3-month mRS-stratified data for clinical endpoints, care costs, and QALE, I derive mRS weights that could be used for meaningful ordinal analyses, clinical prognostication, and cost-effectiveness analyses of stroke therapies.

Neste trabalho discutimos a análise bayesiana em modelos TRI (Teoria da Resposta ao Item) de três parâmetros com respostas binárias e ordinais, considerando a ligação probito. Em ambos os casos usamos técnicas baseadas em MCCM (método de Monte Carlo baseado em Cadeias de Markov) para estimação dos parâmetros dos itens. No modelo com respostas binárias, consideramos dois conjuntos de dados resultantes de provas com itens de múltipla-escolha. Para esses dados, foi feito um estudo da sensibilidade à escolha de distribuições a priori, além de uma análise das estimativas a posteriori para os parâmetros dos itens: discriminação, dificuldade e probabilidade de acerto ao acaso. Um terceiro conjunto de dados foi utilizado no estudo do modelo com respostas ordinais. Estes dados são provenientes de uma disciplina básica de estatística, onde a prova contêm itens dissertativos. As respostas foram classificadas nas categorias: certa, errada ou parcialmente certa. Utilizamos o programa WinBugs para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo binário e a função MCMCordfactanal do programa R para estimar os parâmetros do modelo ordinal. Ambos os softwares são não proprietários e gratuitos (livres). / In this dissertation the bayesian analysis for three parameters IRT (Item Response Theory) models with binaries and ordinals responses, considering the probit model, was discussed. For both cases, binary and ordinal, techniques based on MCCM (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) were used to estimate the items parameters. For binary response model, was considered two data sets from tests with multipla choices items. For these two data sets, a sensibility study of the priori distributions choice was considered, and also, an analyses of a posteriori estimates of the items parameters: discrimination, difficulties and guessing. A third data set is used to ilustrate the ordinal response model. This come from an elementar statistical course, where a test with open items is considered. The responses are classified in the following categories: correct, wrong or partial correct. The WinBugs software was used to estimate the parameters for the binary model and, for the ordinal model was considered the function MCMCordfactanal from R program.

The point of this thesis was to perform listening tests. Appropriate methods of performance were selected for these tests, tests were carried out and the data were analyzed using statistical analysis. Then was compiled the resulting interval scale from results of the first test and in the second listening test were determined average values SNR for background noises.

No description available.

En la horticultura intensiva española la mayor parte de las exportaciones procede de los cultivos de invernadero, localizados en Almería, Murcia y Alicante, donde se ha centrado el presente estudio. Actualmente la posición competitiva no presenta amenazas muy graves pero tampoco muestra una etapa creciente. Exportaciones y precios soportan la competencia de otros países del área mediterránea, con los cuales España debe competir en capital y en tecnología elevando el nivel de equipamiento de los invernaderos. Ante unas exigencias de reestructuración de las instalaciones actuales, no aplazables, se plantea la presente tesis con el fin de conocer el estado actual de la tecnología y su evolución y, además, las características de las explotaciones y la actitud de sus titulares respecto a las innovaciones necesarias. Las fuentes de información se han basado en una toma de precios en origen del tomate y pimiento, como principales productos hortícolas, y en una encuesta, realizada en 242 explotaciones, mediante muestreo proporcional estratificado, en las zonas de El Ejido (Almería), Valle del Guadalentín y Campo de Cartagena (Murcia) y Sur de Alicante. El análisis de la información tuvo una primera parte dedicada a los precios, con el cálculo de la tendencia y la estacionalidad y la aplicación de modelos ARIMA. La finalidad ha sido conocer la evolución de las rentas de los productores, efectuar predicciones, y establecer una relación entre los precios y la tecnología adoptable. El tratamiento de los datos de la encuesta con sus resultados comprende la mayor parte del contenido del trabajo. Se aplicó el análisis estadístico univariante a las características estructurales de explotaciones e invernaderos y el bivariante, con contraste de independencia, para determinar relaciones de interés entre los factores que influyen en los procesos de innovación. / García Martínez, MDC. (2009). La adopción de tecnología en los invernaderos hortícolas mediterráneos [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/6472

Le phénotypage numérique mobilise les nombreux capteurs du téléphone intelligent (p. ex. : accéléromètre, GPS, Bluetooth, métadonnées d’appels) pour mesurer le comportement humain au quotidien, sans interférence, et les relier à des symptômes psychiatriques ou des indicateurs de santé mentale. L’apprentissage automatique est une composante intégrale au processus de transformation de signaux bruts en information intelligible pour un clinicien. Cette approche émerge d’une volonté de caractériser le profil de symptômes et ses variations dans le temps au niveau individuel. Ce projet consistait à prédire des variables de santé mentale (p. ex. : stress, humeur, sociabilité, hallucination) jusqu’à sept jours dans le futur à partir des données du téléphone intelligent pour des patients avec un diagnostic de schizophrénie. Le jeu de données CrossCheck, composé d’un échantillon de 62 participants, a été utilisé. Celui-ci inclut 23,551 jours de signaux du téléphone avec 29 attributs et 6364 autoévaluations de l’état mental à l’aide d’échelles ordinales à 4 ancrages. Des modèles prédictifs ordinaux ont été employés pour générer des prédictions discrètes interprétables sur l’échelle de collecte de données. Au total, 240 modèles d’apprentissage automatique ont été entrainés, soit les combinaisons de 10 variables de santé mentale, 3 horizons temporels (même jour, prochain jour, prochaine semaine), 2 algorithmes (XGBoost, LSTM) et 4 tâches d’apprentissage (classification binaire, régression continue, classification multiclasse, régression ordinale). Les modèles ordinaux et binaires ont performé significativement au-dessus du niveau de base et des deux autres tâches avec une erreur moyenne absolue macro entre 1,436 et 0,767 et une exactitude balancée de 58% à 73%. Les résultats montrent l’effet prépondérant du débalancement des données sur la performance prédictive et soulignent que les mesures n’en tenant pas compte surestiment systématiquement la performance. Cette analyse ancre une série de considérations plus générales quant à l’utilisation de l’intelligence artificielle en santé. En particulier, l’évaluation de la valeur clinique de solutions d’apprentissage automatique présente des défis distinctifs en comparaison aux traitements conventionnels. Le rôle grandissant des technologies numériques en santé mentale a des conséquences sur l’autonomie, l’interprétation et l’agentivité d’une personne sur son expérience. / Digital phenotyping leverages the numerous sensors of smartphones (e.g., accelerometer, GPS, Bluetooth, call metadata) to measure daily human behavior without interference and link it to psychiatric symptoms and mental health indicators. Machine learning is an integral component of processing raw signals into intelligible information for clinicians. This approach emerges from a will to characterize symptom profiles and their temporal variations at an individual level. This project consisted in predicting mental health variables (e.g., stress, mood, sociability, hallucination) up to seven days in the future from smartphone data for patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia. The CrossCheck dataset, which has a sample of 62 participants, was used. It includes 23,551 days of phone sensor data with 29 features, and 6364 mental state self-reports on 4-point ordinal scales. Ordinal predictive models were used to generate discrete predictions that can be interpreted using the guidelines from the clinical data collection scale. In total, 240 machine learning models were trained, i.e., combinations of 10 mental health variables, 3 forecast horizons (same day, next day, next week), 2 algorithms (XGBoost, LSTM), and 4 learning tasks (binary classification, continuous regression, multiclass classification, ordinal regression). The ordinal and binary models performed significantly better than the baseline and the two other tasks with a macroaveraged mean absolute error between 1.436 and 0.767 and a balanced accuracy between 58% and 73%. Results showed a dominant effect of class imbalance on predictive performance and highlighted that metrics not accounting for it lead to systematic overestimation of performance. This analysis anchors a series of broader considerations about the use of artificial intelligence in healthcare. In particular, assessing the clinical value of machine learning solutions present distinctive challenges when compared to conventional treatments. The growing role of digital technologies in mental health has implication for autonomy, sense-making, and agentivity over one’s experience.