Countries that have experienced civil war suffer a greater risk for new conflict than countries with no prior history of civil war. This empirical finding has been called a conflict trap where the legacy of previous war - unsolved issues, indecisive outcomes, and destruction – leads to renewed fighting. Yet, countries like Cambodia, El Salvador, Indonesia, and Mozambique have managed to overcome decade-long conflicts without relapse. This dissertation addresses this empirical puzzle by seeking to dismantle the conflict trap and look at microlevel explanations for civil war resolution and relapse. It adds to existing scholarship in three ways: first, by using disaggregated empirics on war termination and how fighting resumes; second, by exploring government agency in conflict processes; and third, by disaggregating rebel organizations. Essay I present original data on the start and end dates and means of termination for all armed conflicts, 1946-2005. Contrary to previous work, this data reveal that wars does not always end through victory or peace agreement, but commonly end under unclear circumstances. Essay II addresses how developments exogenous to the conflict influence governments’ decision to engage in a peace process. The results show that after natural disasters when state resources need to be allocated towards disaster relief, governments are more willing to negotiate and conclude ceasefires with insurgents. Essay III focuses on the post-conflict society, and posits that security concerns among former war participants will push them towards remobilizing into rebellion. The findings indicate that if ex-belligerent elite’s security is compromised, the parties of the previous war will resume fighting, while insecurity among former rank-and-file leads to the formation of violent splinter rebel groups. Finally, Essay IV seeks to explain why governments sometimes launch offensives on former rebels in post-conflict countries. The results show that internal power struggles provide leaders with incentives to use force against domestic third parties to strengthen their position against intra-government rivals. Taken together, this dissertation demonstrates that there is analytical leverage to be had by disaggregating the processes of violence in civil war and post-conflict societies, as well as the actors involved – both the government and rebel sides.

The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the relation between two highly relevant documents for the Colombian society: Firstly, The peace agreement between the Colombian Government and the FARC guerrilla. Secondly, the agreement of the authorities of the country to follow and pursuit the new Sustainable Development Goals – Agenda 2030 from United Nations. For this research, an extensive existing literature review was done. Throughout the empirics, the analysis looked at the relation between these two documents to show the level of compatibility for the Sustainable Development agenda in Colombia. This compatibility is important to determine as both documents have a vital importance for the Colombian Society. The first, Peace Agreement, as it is the text that aims to propose the political agenda after more than 50 years of conflict between the authorities and the FARC guerrilla. Secondly, the SDGs – Agenda 2030 is a political agreement that countries in the world will follow to contribute to the sustainability of the planet. Thus, after having the chance to review and analyze both documents, there exist clear synergies between both documents, with the exceptions of certain topics. It can be concluded that there is much room for being optimistic in the case of Colombia, but to keep in mind that the agreements are just that: the entrance to a route that now the whole country needs to take, the path of sustainability.

[pt] O ponto central das preocupações analíticas desta dissertação trata-se de observar variáveis na esfera doméstica de Israel capazes de restringirem suas decisões na arena externa, no âmbito das negociações de paz com a Organização para a Libertação da Palestina. Sendo assim, a avaliação da estrutura política desse país permite verificar que a fórmula de representação proporcional e o modo pelo qual interagem o Executivo e o Legislativo podem afetar questões nessa área. Ademais, o exame dos distintos posicionamentos dos governos de Ytzhak Rabin e Shimon Peres, e de Benjamin Netanyahu, no que concerne à segurança de Israel, revela a polarização entre os favoráveis a um Estado de Israel, seguindo as demarcações das fronteiras internacionalmente aceitas, como garantia à segurança e à democracia israelenses, e os defensores da extensão da soberania a regiões que correspondem à Terra de Israel (o histórico lar nacional judaico). Essa discussão reflete a polêmica sobre os territórios ocupados por aquele país em decorrência da Guerra dos Seis Dias em 1967 e, nesse sentido, vale considerar em que medida os diferentes padrões de comportamento desses governos, fundamentados em uma cultura política, delinearam as escolhas para a área externa e para a segurança de Israel. / [en] The focus of analysis in this dissertation is to observe those variables within Israel that can restrict the decisions on the external field, in the context of the peace negotiations with the Palestine Liberation Organization. In this light, the evaluation of the Israeli political structure indicates that proportional representation and the interaction between the executive and the legislative can affect its foreign policy. Besides, an examination of the different positions on Israel s security taken by the governments of Ytzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres and that of Benjamin Netanyahu reveals a polarization between those favorable to the State of Israel following the demarcations of internationally accepted frontiers as a guarantee of its security and democracy and the defenders of extending sovereignty over the places corresponding to the Land of Israel (the historical Jewish homeland). This discussion reflects the controversy about the territories occupied by that country as a result of the Six Day War in 1967 and, in this sense, it was also considered to what extent the different standards of behavior of those governments, founded on a certain political culture, underscored the choices on Israel s foreign policy and its security.

In 2016 the Colombian Government signed an historic peace deal with the main guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia-People's Army (FARC-EP) after decades of armed conflict. In the same year Canada pledged $57.4M in development funding to help Colombia recover in the post-peace deal era. Since 2016 the Peace and Stabilisation Operations Program (PSOPs) alone has invested $35.3M in the country. With the launch of Canada's Feminist International Assistance Policy (FIAP) in 2017, many of these initiatives unfolded in a new policy context and were characterised by commitments to make gender equality a priority. This study looks at the intersection of Canadian aid, transitional justice, and gender in Colombia through a feminist-institutionalist lens. It aims to assess the impact of Canadian-funded projects from these areas along a spectrum that varies from 'gendered transitional justice' to 'transformative transitional justice'. The thesis concludes that the impact of Canadian assistance is found in the in-between area of 'gendered transitional justice' and 'transformative transitional justice', characterized by some progress away from the status quo of 'gendered transitional justice', but without hitting the transformative mark. Through a feminist institutionalist lens, we argue that it is the complex socio-political landscape of Colombia overlaying the agency of Canada's implementing partners, their Southern counterparts and the agency of the donor, and the sum of these interactions that both enable and limit the full transformative capacity of the intervention and situate its impact somewhere in the middle.

This research project aims to analyse the current administrative/humanitarian model of the search for missing persons in the context of the Colombian conflict and to assess how it contributes to the transitional context in Colombia post-2016 Peace Agreement. Specifically, its contribution to truth, justice, reparations, and participation will be discussed. The two existing models of the search for missing persons will be briefly compared: the administrative/humanitarian model and the judicial model, based on existing literature and using examples from conflict or violent areas of Latin America. This is followed by the discussion of the Colombian model, set up in the 2016 Peace Agreement. Then, to examine how the administrative/humanitarian model of the search for missing persons contributes to the principles of the Agreement, the analysis is based on the semi-structured interviews of individuals who actively participate in search activities, including peace signatories, professionals in the field belonging to humanitarian organizations or independent NGOs and victims’ representatives. This is followed by recommendations to both the Colombian state and humanitarian organizations. The study argues that the mixed approach of the search in Colombia, which uses a hybrid system based on the complementarity of the judicial and administrative/humanitarian model, succeeds in supporting the principles of transitional justice, but that strengthening the support and commitment of the latter model proves the better avenue to provide answers on the fate and location of missing persons.

International Legal Aspects of Rebuilding State Structures in Post-Conflict Areas Abstract The dissertation thesis International Legal Aspects of Rebuilding State Structures in Post-Conflict Areas deals with creation, acceptance and implementation of peace agreements. The emphasis is on nature, functions and status of the peace agreements within international law. The second major area of research is a legislation of the implementation of peace agreements in the period between the termination of armed conflict and rebuilding a just and sustainable peace in the country when the armed conflict was undergoing. The implementation process is extremely complex and fragmented, which requires major efforts to ensure an effective and efficient outcome of the process. In a specific section we are focusing on case studies of implementation processes (i.e. solution of legal relations between Sudan and South Sudan). The concept of jus post bellum, which seeks to build on the law of armed conflict, is used for the legislation of the implementation in the doctrine of international law. In addition to jus post bellum we will mention also new approaches to international mediation, Responsibility to Protect, Transitional Justice and lex pacificatoria. As results of the work are findings that the peace agreement, excluding...

International Legal Aspects of Rebuilding State Structures in Post-Conflict Areas Abstract The dissertation thesis International Legal Aspects of Rebuilding State Structures in Post-Conflict Areas deals with creation, acceptance and implementation of peace agreements. The emphasis is on nature, functions and status of the peace agreements within international law. The second major area of research is a legislation of the implementation of peace agreements in the period between the termination of armed conflict and rebuilding a just and sustainable peace in the country when the armed conflict was undergoing. The implementation process is extremely complex and fragmented, which requires major efforts to ensure an effective and efficient outcome of the process. In a specific section we are focusing on case studies of implementation processes (i.e. solution of legal relations between Sudan and South Sudan). The concept of jus post bellum, which seeks to build on the law of armed conflict, is used for the legislation of the implementation in the doctrine of international law. In addition to jus post bellum we will mention also new approaches to international mediation, Responsibility to Protect, Transitional Justice and lex pacificatoria. As results of the work are findings that the peace agreement, excluding...

Are peace agreements more likely to include gender provisions if women participate in the peace negotiations? The international community, national governments and civil societies around the world have assumed that women’s inclusion in peace negotiations result in higher quality peace agreements, where women’s interests are better taken into consideration. To date, there is a lack of empirical underpinning of the assumption. This study uses a twofold research design, combining statistical and qualitative methods to examine the interrelation between women’s descriptive and substantive representation in peace negotiations in the post-Cold War era. First, the statistical analysis suggests that peace agreements are more likely to include at least one gender provision referring to women’s rights and security if women participate in the negotiation. At the same time, the agreements are not more likely to address a higher number of different areas for increased rights and security measures for women. Second, the qualitative analysis examining the mechanisms shows that there is no guarantee that women will push for gender provisions, but that their particular experiences and interests in conflict, and the expectations from others give them strong reasons to do so. Important factors for women to successfully push for gender provisions have to do both with their individual will and personal ability, and external factors relating to the presence of traditional gender norms and the power balance between men and women in the country of conflict.

<p>This composite dissertation explores mediation in internal armed conflicts from a bargaining perspective. Four separate essays investigate why mediation occurs, why it is successful, and why peace guarantors’ commitments are credible. Essay 1 examines the conditions under which mediation takes place. The study argues that whereas it is costly for governments to accept international mediation, it is a less costly intervention tool for potential third parties. This argument implies that mediation will be more likely when and where negotiated settlements are least likely to be reached, a contention that is supported by empirical tests. Essay 2 reviews the contemporary debate on what types of mediators that can disseminate information in a credible manner, and formulates a set of testable hypotheses on mediation partiality. The analysis shows that negotiated settlements are more likely if biased or interested mediators intervene, while neutral mediators are not associated with mediation success. Essay 3 elaborates on the role of biased mediators. It proposes that rebels face a commitment problem when negotiated settlements are to be reached, which government-biased mediators can mitigate. The study finds that such types of mediators outperform rebel-biased mediators in terms of helping combatants to settle the armed conflict. Essay 4 deals with the commitment problem that comes to pass between, on the one hand the primary parties, and on the other, the potential peace guarantors. The study probes the requests and promises for third-party security guarantees and suggests that the reputation of the United Nations (UN) enhances its credibility as peace guarantor compared to non-UN actors. It finds that although the UN is more restrictive with its promises, it is more likely that peacekeeping forces will be provided if the UN is one of the guarantors. In sum, utilizing unique data from two time-periods (post World War II and post Cold War), this dissertation arrives at new insights on the role of mediators in bringing about negotiated settlements of internal armed conflicts.</p>

This composite dissertation explores mediation in internal armed conflicts from a bargaining perspective. Four separate essays investigate why mediation occurs, why it is successful, and why peace guarantors’ commitments are credible. Essay 1 examines the conditions under which mediation takes place. The study argues that whereas it is costly for governments to accept international mediation, it is a less costly intervention tool for potential third parties. This argument implies that mediation will be more likely when and where negotiated settlements are least likely to be reached, a contention that is supported by empirical tests. Essay 2 reviews the contemporary debate on what types of mediators that can disseminate information in a credible manner, and formulates a set of testable hypotheses on mediation partiality. The analysis shows that negotiated settlements are more likely if biased or interested mediators intervene, while neutral mediators are not associated with mediation success. Essay 3 elaborates on the role of biased mediators. It proposes that rebels face a commitment problem when negotiated settlements are to be reached, which government-biased mediators can mitigate. The study finds that such types of mediators outperform rebel-biased mediators in terms of helping combatants to settle the armed conflict. Essay 4 deals with the commitment problem that comes to pass between, on the one hand the primary parties, and on the other, the potential peace guarantors. The study probes the requests and promises for third-party security guarantees and suggests that the reputation of the United Nations (UN) enhances its credibility as peace guarantor compared to non-UN actors. It finds that although the UN is more restrictive with its promises, it is more likely that peacekeeping forces will be provided if the UN is one of the guarantors. In sum, utilizing unique data from two time-periods (post World War II and post Cold War), this dissertation arrives at new insights on the role of mediators in bringing about negotiated settlements of internal armed conflicts.