Thesis advisor: Arthur Lewbel / In my dissertation I studied the political economy of economic development as well as the the urban wage premium, all using data from Brazil. In the first chapter, which is joint work with Carlos Varjao, we analyze the effect that increased political opposition in the city council has on corruption and public service provision at the local level. In the second chapter I study the sources of the high wage premium observed in cities, including firm sorting, firm and occupational matching, and compensating wage differentials. Finally, in the third chapter I study what happens to the provision of public education when a school teacher is elected to the city council (which actually occurs quite frequently). More detailed summaries of each chapter follow below. Chapter 1: In 'Political Opposition, Legislative Oversight, and the Performance of the Executive Branch', we study the effect that increased political opposition has on corruption and other measures of the mayor's performance in Brazil. The separation of powers between the executive and legislative branches is a cornerstone of democracy. This system of checks and balances, however, can be circumvented by partisan loyalties if legislators strategically avoid exerting oversight when their own party controls the executive branch. It is thus an empirical question whether the separation of powers prevents the abuse of power in practice. We answer this question by measuring the extent to which members of political opposition parties in a city council effectively check the mayor's performance in Brazil. We employ a regression discontinuity design to estimate the causal effect of an additional politically opposed legislator, and we find that political opposition increases oversight action and decreases corruption, with the effect fully concentrated on mayors facing reelection pressure. We trace the impact of oversight, via a reduction in healthcare spending irregularities, all the way to impacts on healthcare service delivery and health outcomes. Chapter 2: In 'Decomposing the Urban Wage Premium in Brazil: Firms, Matching, and Compensating Wage Differentials' I study the sources of the high wage premium observed in cities. In this chapter I used detailed employer-employee matched data from Brazil to understand 3 important elements of the urban wage premium: (1) the role of firms sorting into cities, (2) the role of firm and occupational matching in creating agglomeration economies, and (3) the role of compensating wage differentials. I first exploit identification from multi-city firms to show that positive selection of high-wage firms into larger cities accounts for 44% of what is often considered `agglomeration economies'. Then I show that improved firm and occupational matching together account for 87% of agglomeration effects. I then turn my attention to compensating wage differentials--- a possible explanation for the high-wage firms in cities. I estimate revealed-preference valuation of jobs, and show that jobs in cities in fact have better non-wage characteristics, and so high urban wages cannot be due to compensating wage differentials. This evidence together suggests that in Brazil, cities exist because they provide thick labor markets where high-wage firms and high-wage workers can go to find productive matches. Chapter 3: In 'Teachers in Politics: Teacher-Politicians, Gender, and the Representation of Public Education' I study what happens to public education in a city when a school teacher is elected to the city council, and I find that it depends on the gender of the teacher. Using a regression discontinuity design that exploits close elections, I find that when a female teacher is elected to the city council, the city hires both more teachers and more qualified teachers, and pays them more. Having a female teacher on the city council also increases the likelihood that the city's schools have necessary teaching resources, books, and financing, and possibly increases student test scores. No significant effect is found for male teachers elected to the city council. This difference may be due to different political career concerns for men versus women, a simple amplification of existing gender policy preference differences, or some mixture of the two. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2021. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

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Response to adverse weather conditions by cotton and other major crops are likely to be heterogeneous across varieties, but it is unclear whether this translates into yield risk heterogeneity across varieties. Crop insurance is the dominant agricultural policy instrument and will play an important role as farmers adapt to climate change. However, climate change impact on the performance of the crop insurance programs is not well established and currently the Risk Management Agency (RMA) does not offer alternative premium rates across varieties; nor has there been any public acknowledgement that it plans to adjust rates in anticipation of climate change. In this study, we identify whether there are heterogeneous premium rates across varieties; we also measure the impact of warming on these premium rates. Our findings show heterogeneities of premium rates across varieties and different warming scenarios, as well as heterogeneities in expected yield and yield risk.

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In this research, I classify all stocks into two groups: dividend and non-dividend payers and hypothesize that profitability premium may only exist among the firms with unforeseeable future cash flows, i.e., non-dividend payers. As expected, my empirical results support that profitability premium only exists among non-dividend payers but is very trivial among dividend payers. Dividends have a moderate effect on profitability premiums. To dig further into the source of profitability premium, I investigated risk and behavioral explanations from three perspectives: macroeconomics, industry, and total risks investors perceive for a firm. The evidence from empirical analysis supports that the profitability premium is mainly driven by the overpriced, unprofitable non-dividend payers, which, on average, have negative earnings announcement returns. In contrast, there is no significant positive or negative abnormal return from earnings announcements for portfolios sorted by profitability among dividend payers. Furthermore, the evidence from analyst forecast errors confirms that analysts are over-optimistic about unprofitable non-dividend-paying stocks and disagree more with their EPS forecast. Overall, the study finds that investors' expectation errors are the source of the profitability premium. It rejects the idea that risk is the profitability premium driver.

No / This paper shows that the presence of persistent uninsurable risk concentrated in economic depressions has the potential to resolve two well¿known asset pricing puzzles. It is also shown that the presence of such risk in more normal economic expansions and recessions is likely to be much less relevant in determining equilibrium asset prices.

價值股與小型股在90年代的表現不如預期，顯示這些股票風格並不能帶給投資人過去文獻所顯現的報酬。近年來，有關風格擇時策略的研究開始興起，在美國、英國、日本皆發現了相當可觀的潛在報酬。此篇論文的目的，是要檢驗風格輪動策略在台灣股票市場的執行效果，以對國外的風格投資實證結果做延伸應用。首先，此篇論文探討風格輪動策略的潛在利益。接著，建立模型預測未來風格溢酬，並與消極策略比較績效結果。這裡使用的預測模型，調整自Bauer et al. (2004)所使用的動態模型方法，並增加適合度統計量的選擇條件，以確保模型估計期間內解釋變數的解釋力，最後選出在樣本外24個月中預測力最高的模型作為下一期的預測模型。實證結果顯示，風格輪動策略在台灣股票市場具有相當顯著的潛在報酬。在大型/小型輪動策略中，預測模型表現明顯比消極策略優秀，但在價值/成長輪動策略中，預測模型並沒有辦法顯著超越消極策略。而多重風格投資策略可以帶來更高的報酬，同時也涉及更高的風險。因為規模風格消極策略在樣本期間表現不佳，使得大型/小型輪動策略可以藉由預測模型打敗消極策略。然而，雖然價值/成長輪動策略的潛在利益頗大，但價值風格消極策略在樣本期間表現不俗，使得本篇論文的預測模型不易勝過消極策略。 / The disappointing performance of style consistency strategies during 1990s told us that value and small-cap stocks may not bring us the same returns as literature showed. Recently, researchers of style timing strategies have found a great potential benefit. The aim of this paper attempts to examine the execution of the style rotation strategies in Taiwan stock market and contribute to more extensive application of international style investment empirical results. First, this paper explores the potential benefits of the style rotation strategies. Then, the paper tries to predict the style premiums and compares the style rotation results to the passive strategies. Adjusting the dynamic modeling approach applied by Bauer et al. (2004), this paper adds the selection criteria of the likelihood score statistic to assure the in-sample explanatory power of 17 financial and economic variables, and chooses the forecast models with the highest out-of-sample forecasting power in the training period. The results show that the potential benefits of style rotation strategies were significant and worth researching in Taiwan stock market. The forecast models performed well in the small/large rotation strategies, but worse in the value/growth rotation strategies. The multi-style rotation strategy could provide higher return as well as involved higher risk. Because the small/large passive strategy performed poorly during the investment period, the size rotation strategy could beat the passive strategy through the forecast model. However, although the potential benefit of the value/growth rotation strategy was still large in the sample period, it was challenging to beat the passive value/growth strategy when the value/growth passive strategy performed well.

Submitted by Rosivalda Pereira (mrs.pereira@ufma.br) on 2017-06-13T20:38:54Z No. of bitstreams: 1 RafaelaDiniz.pdf: 3023880 bytes, checksum: b1ca6eabaf77f0f2a4d741dea14a11ba (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-13T20:38:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 RafaelaDiniz.pdf: 3023880 bytes, checksum: b1ca6eabaf77f0f2a4d741dea14a11ba (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-10-27 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / The industry of I refinery of petroleum it is a great degrading of the environment, becayse she has potential of affect him in all the levels: air, water, soil and, consequently, the health of the you be alive. With the implantation of this enterprise, certainly the environmental quality of the resources and the health of the population of the municipal districts of the surroundings of the Refinery they will be affected direct and or indirectly. This research had as objective of the close municipal districts to the enterprise. A total 300 interviews was accomplished between the months of August and October of 2010, in the municipal districts of Bacabeira, Santa Rita and Rosário and in the rural places of the municipal district of São Luís: Estiva, Coqueiro and Vila Maranhão. For the collection of the data questionnaries were used semi-structured that were developed randomly with the population of the municipal districts and rural places involved in the research, the obtained data were stored in a database of the Program Excel 2007 so that they could be systematized and tabulated. The results demonstrated that in 62,0% of the interviewees in Santa Rita, 76% in Rosário, 40% in Vila Maranhão, they found the situation of the terrible health. The main diseases observed during the study they were the diseases of waterborne, and 34% of the intervewees in Coqueiro, 28% in Rosário, 52% in Santa Rita and 36% in Vila Maranhão, they already contracted primness. The form used for the "waste disposal" more found in the homes it was the septic sewage, 40% in Bacabeira, 42% in Coqueiro, 48% in Rosário , 50% in Santa Rita and 44% in Vila Maranhão. Most of the population doesn't know where the garbage is discarded, 46% in Bacabeira, 32% in Rosário, 42% in Santa Rita and 42% in Vila Maranhão. Most of the interviewees doesn't make any treatment type in the water, being naturally more exposed to the diseases. In relation to the perception of the interviewees' environment 81,3% they affirm that the environmental education is important, in relation to the climatic changes, 95,3% of the interviewees observed alterations in relation to the thermal sensation. Fifty-four percent of respondents in Bacabeira, 58% Coqueiro 74% in Rosario, in Santa Rita 60% and 70% in Vila Maranhão said that environmental degradation is worsening. The levels of pollutant stayed inside of the stablished patterns in the Resolução CONAMA nº03/90, not altering of this sorts out the quality of the air of the municipal districts. It is fundamental that are elaborated and made possible programs and monitoring politics and increment of the health and of the environmental resources, so that the operation of this enterprise doesn't swallow serious risks to the local resources and the health of the involved population. / A indústria de refino de petróleo é uma grande degradadora do ambiente, pois tem potencial para afetá-lo em todos os níveis: ar, água, solo e, conseqüentemente, a saúde dos seres vivos. Com a implantação deste empreendimento, certamente a qualidade ambiental dos recursos e a saúde da população dos municípios do entorno da Refinaria serão afetados direta e ou indiretamente. Esta pesquisa teve como objetivo avaliar a qualidade ambiental e diagnosticar a situação da saúde da população dos municípios próximos ao empreendimento. A metodologia usada consistiu em um total de 300 entrevistas realizadas entre os meses de agosto e outubro de 2010, nos municípios de Bacabeira, Santa Rita e Rosário e nas localidades rurais do município de São Luís: Estiva, Coqueiro e Vila Maranhão. Para a coleta dos dados foram utilizados questionários semi- estruturados que foram desenvolvidos aleatoriamente com a população dos municípios e localidades rurais envolvidas na pesquisa, os dados obtidos foram armazenados em um banco de dados do Programa Excel 2007 para que pudessem ser sistematizados e tabulados. Os resultados demonstraram que em 62,0% dos entrevistados em Santa Rita, 76% em Rosário, 40% em Estiva e 40% em Vila Maranhão, acharam a situação da saúde péssima. As principais doenças observadas durante o estudo foram as doenças de veiculação hídrica, sendo que 34% dos entrevistados em Coqueiro, 28% em Rosário, 52% em Santa Rita e 36% em Vila Maranhão, já contraíram dengue. A forma usada para o “descarte de dejetos” mais encontrado nos domicílios foi a fossa séptica, 40% em Bacabeira, 42% em Coqueiro, 48% em Rosário, 50% em Santa Rita e 44% em Vila Maranhão. A maior parte da população (46% em Bacabeira, 32% em Rosário, 42% em Santa Rita e 42% em Vila Maranhão) não sabe onde o lixo é descartado. A maioria dos entrevistados não faz qualquer tipo de tratamento na água, estando naturalmente mais expostos às doenças. Em relação à percepção do ambiente, 81,3% dos entrevistados afirmam que a educação ambiental é importante. Em relação às mudanças climáticas, 95,3% dos entrevistados observaram alterações em relação à sensação térmica. Cinqüenta e quatro por cento dos entrevistados em Bacabeira, 58% em Coqueiro, 74% em Rosário, 60% em Santa Rita e 70% em Vila Maranhão afirmaram que a degradação do ambiente está piorando. Os níveis de poluentes permaneceram dentro dos padrões estabelecidos pela Resolução CONAMA Nº03/90, não alterando desta maneira a qualidade do ar dos municípios. É fundamental que sejam elaboradas e viabilizadas programas e políticas de monitoramento e incremento da saúde e dos recursos ambientais, para que a operação deste empreendimento não traga sérios riscos aos recursos locais e à saúde da população envolvida.

<p>Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka huruvida en aktiv individ får högre framtida pensionsutbetalningar än en individ som låter kapitalet vara kvar i Premiesparfonden.</p><p>Vår undersökning har en<strong> </strong>deduktiv ansats, då ekonomiska teorier har utgjort grunden för de beräkningar som har gjorts. Beräkningarna bygger på hårddata, i form av historiska fondvärden, och studien är därmed kvantitativ. Tidigare undersökningar och beräkningar används för att styrka uppsatsen, som i och med detta är en sekundäranalys.  </p><p>Den placeringsstrategi som<strong> </strong>visade sig ge högst framtida utbetalningar med hänsyn tagen till risken var den aktiva placeringen. De portföljer som de aktiva premiepensionstagarna har att välja mellan i vår studie, ger alla högre framtida utbetalningar än Premiesparfonden. Vidare kan tilläggas att Premiesparfonden är ett av alternativen som har för hög risk i förhållande till dess låga avkastning.</p><p>Det skulle vara intressant att om några år, då Premiespar-fonden har förändrats till generationsfonder, göra om denna studie och då undersöka om detta leder till högre pensionsutbetalningar för de icke-aktiva premiepensionstagarna.</p><p>Denna studie bidrar med och stärker, genom konkreta exempel, det som en del andra författare redan påpekat, att de icke- aktiva premiepensionsspararna får lägre framtida utbetalningar än de som är aktiva i sitt sparande.<strong></strong></p> / <p>The aim of this thesis is to compare if being an active premium pension saver give rise to higher future payments, than keeping the capital in the Premium Savings Fund.</p><p>This essay has a deductive approach, as we started to study financial theories. It also has a quantitative research, since our calculations are called statistical data, which are composed of these financial theories. Previous studies and calculations are used to prove our essay.</p><p>The best investment strategy with the highest future payments, regarding risk preferences, turned out to be the active choice. All the choices an active premium pension saver can make by choose one of our different portfolios, has proved higher future payments, than The Premium Pension Fund. Further, the Premium Savings Fund is one of alternatives which have a lower return, regarding to the high level of risk.</p><p>It would be interesting to remake this study, when the new funds "generationsfonderna" has been introduced, and to see if this alternative leads to higher future payments.</p><p>This study<strong> </strong>contributes, through substantial examples, what some other writers already have done. A non-active premium pension saver gets lower future payments then the active savers.</p>

Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka huruvida en aktiv individ får högre framtida pensionsutbetalningar än en individ som låter kapitalet vara kvar i Premiesparfonden. Vår undersökning har en deduktiv ansats, då ekonomiska teorier har utgjort grunden för de beräkningar som har gjorts. Beräkningarna bygger på hårddata, i form av historiska fondvärden, och studien är därmed kvantitativ. Tidigare undersökningar och beräkningar används för att styrka uppsatsen, som i och med detta är en sekundäranalys.   Den placeringsstrategi som visade sig ge högst framtida utbetalningar med hänsyn tagen till risken var den aktiva placeringen. De portföljer som de aktiva premiepensionstagarna har att välja mellan i vår studie, ger alla högre framtida utbetalningar än Premiesparfonden. Vidare kan tilläggas att Premiesparfonden är ett av alternativen som har för hög risk i förhållande till dess låga avkastning. Det skulle vara intressant att om några år, då Premiespar-fonden har förändrats till generationsfonder, göra om denna studie och då undersöka om detta leder till högre pensionsutbetalningar för de icke-aktiva premiepensionstagarna. Denna studie bidrar med och stärker, genom konkreta exempel, det som en del andra författare redan påpekat, att de icke- aktiva premiepensionsspararna får lägre framtida utbetalningar än de som är aktiva i sitt sparande. / The aim of this thesis is to compare if being an active premium pension saver give rise to higher future payments, than keeping the capital in the Premium Savings Fund. This essay has a deductive approach, as we started to study financial theories. It also has a quantitative research, since our calculations are called statistical data, which are composed of these financial theories. Previous studies and calculations are used to prove our essay. The best investment strategy with the highest future payments, regarding risk preferences, turned out to be the active choice. All the choices an active premium pension saver can make by choose one of our different portfolios, has proved higher future payments, than The Premium Pension Fund. Further, the Premium Savings Fund is one of alternatives which have a lower return, regarding to the high level of risk. It would be interesting to remake this study, when the new funds "generationsfonderna" has been introduced, and to see if this alternative leads to higher future payments. This study contributes, through substantial examples, what some other writers already have done. A non-active premium pension saver gets lower future payments then the active savers.