Thesis (M.Com. (Business Finance))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Economic and Business Sciences, 2017 / The writer studies the short-run determinants of bond yield volatility in South Africa (SA) by analyzing the impact that global factors –representing global funding conditions – have on the changes to the rand denominated generic 10-year government bond yield (SAGB). This is followed by a one-period forward forecast of this volatility. The explanatory variables tested in this study are as follows: net bond purchases by foreign investors, Chicago Board Options Volatility Index (VIX), JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index (JP EMBI) spread, the US dollar to SA rand (USDZAR) exchange rate, the SA 5 year credit default swap (CDS) rate, the 12 month interest rate expectation/9x12 forward rate agreement (FRA), dollar spot price of gold and dollar spot price of oil. The study period ranges from January 2000 to December 2015. The GARCH modelling technique is used due to its ability to capture the volatility clustering effects observed in time series return data. The writer used the Gaussian distribution as the default model, however in order to control for the skewness and fat-tails in financial market return data, the Student-T and Generalised Error distributions are also tested to see if the non-normally distributed bond returns could be better captured by alternative parametric assumptions. The results show that all the explanatory variables, with the exception of the FRA, are statistically significant in explaining volatility in the local generic 10-year government bond. / GR2018

Thesis advisor: Pierluigi Balduzzi / This dissertation consists of two essays in empirical asset pricing. Chapter I, "Skewness and Co-skewness in Bond Returns," explores skewness and co-skewness in discrete-horizon bond returns. Using data for 1976-2005, we find bond skewness is comparable to that in equities, varies with the holding period and varies over time. Speculative-grade bonds and collateralized securities have substantial negative skewness. The sign of the price of co-skewness risk in fixed income market is in general consistent with the theoretical prediction of the three-moment CAPM. Co-skewness against the market portfolio is priced differently in various bond sectors: taking a unit of co-skewness risk is rewarded with 0.43% and 2.47% per month for corporate bonds and collateralized securities, respectively. Co-skewness risk helps explain the cross section of expected bond returns when state variables such as inflation, real activity, or short term interest rates are included, or when conditioning information is exploited. Chapter II, "Modern Portfolio Management with Conditioning Information," studies models in which active portfolio managers optimize performance relative to a benchmark and utilize conditioning information unavailable to their clients. We provide explicit solutions for the optimal strategies with multiple risky assets, with or without a risk free asset, and also consider various constraints on portfolio risk or on portfolio weights. The equilibrium implications of the models are discussed. A currency portfolio example shows that the optimal solutions improve the measured performance by 53% out of sample, compared with portfolios ignoring conditioning information. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2009. / Submitted to: Boston College. Carroll School of Management. / Discipline: Finance.

A research report submitted to the Wits Business School, University of the Witwatersrand, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in Finance and Investment, 2016 / This research investigated the application of capital budgeting and risk analysis techniques and their effect on company performance in the South African mining industry. Studies internationally and locally have reported an improved application of capital budgeting techniques— away from the naïve, non-discounted cash flow techniques of the Payback Period (PBP) to the more appropriate discounted cash flow methods of Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). In a survey distributed to the Finance Managers, Officers and Directors of mining companies in South Africa, we confirmed the increased sophistication in capital budgeting— the results suggest that 83.3% prefer NPV, 61.5% always use IRR and only 58.3% use PBP. On the other hand, and in contrast to capital budgeting, risk analysis is still comparatively naïve; with sensitivity analysis being the dominant technique used in the mining industry. The sophisticated methods of scenario testing and real option analysis (ROV) are rarely employed. An empirical analysis on the effects of capital budgeting and risk analysis on company performance has yielded results in contradiction with the theory of capital budgeting. The finding of the study is a negative and/or insignificant relation of capital budgeting and risk analysis sophistication to company performance as measured by return of assets (ROA). Although this finding is counterintuitive and contradicts theory, it is, however, consistent with international studies of this nature. / XL2018

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree in Master of Commerce (50% course work) / A growing number of institutional investors that are adopting corporate social responsibility (CSR) philosophy are playing a crucial role in influencing listed companies to adopt and address CSR issues. CSR is defined as “…a concept whereby companies integrate social and environmental concerns in their business operations…” (European Commission, 2010). CSR is now widely accepted as a way of doing business in the contemporary environment. It is evident in companies that are spending large sums of money, time and effort on satisfying various stakeholders’ requirements for responsible behaviour. Despite the growing pressure on companies to become socially responsible, the direct benefits of CSR contribution to firm performance remain questionable. From existing literature the relationship between CSR and firm performance have pointed to mixed results (Gladysek & Chipeta, 2012; Aggarwal, 2013). This study examines the relationship between CSR performance and firm performance using the CSRHub sustainability indexes as proxy for CSR performance. The firm performance measures of firm value (Tobin’s Q) and financial accounting performance (return on assets) were used. Annual data of firms from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) from year 2009 to 2012 was analysed using the Multiple Regression Analysis techniques. The study revealed that significant and positive relationship exists between CSR/environmental performance and firm value of listed South African companies. The study concluded that there is no significant relationship between firm performance and the other components of CSR such as community relations, employment relations, and governance. The relatively small sample size of the listed companies, some missing values on the sample data and the shorter time period on the study are the main limitations acknowledged in this report. In the overall, the study provides important insights for understanding the contribution of CSR and its disaggregated components to firm performance.

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2016 / Modeling and forecasting volatility is one of the crucial functions in various fields of financial engineering, especially in the quantitative risk management departments of banks and insurance companies. Forecasting volatility is a task of any analyst in the space of portfolio management, risk management and option pricing. In this study we examined different GARCH models in Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) using univariate GARCH models (GARCH (1, 1), EGARCH (1, 1), GARCH-M (1, 1) GJR-GARCH (1, 1) and PGARCH (1, 1)). Daily log-returns were used on JSE ALSH, Resource 20, Industrial 25 and Top 40 indices over a period of 12 years. Both symmetric and asymmetric models were examined. The results showed that GARCH (1, 1) model dominate other models both in-sample and out-of-sample in modeling the volatility clustering and leptokurtosis in financial data of JSE sectoral indices. The results showed that the JSE All Share Index and all other indices studied here can be best modeled by GARCH (1, 1) and out-of-sample for JSE All Share index proved to be best for GARCH (1, 1). In forecasting out-of-sample EGARCH (1, 1) proved to outperformed other forecasting models based on different procedures for JSE All Share index and Top 40 but for Resource 20 RJR-GARCH (1, 1) is the best model and Industrial 25 data suggest PGARCH (1, 1) / DM2016

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Humanities School of Social Sciences, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfilment for the degree of Masters in Migration & Displacement. Johannesburg 2016 / Repatriation like any other form of migration is highly gendered. The objective of this research study is to analyze the gendered determinants of repatriation. I will explore various motivations for return and the general literature surrounding repatriation. My interest in the research was inspired by my experience working with Rwandan returnees where I encountered more female returnees than men. The other reason was the invocation of the cessation of Rwandan refugees on the 30th June 2013.The implication of the cessation meant to bring to closure to a close the refugee status of Rwandans who fled the country before 31st December 1998 and to find alternative status for those refugees still in need of international protection. An interesting observation is that despite this invocation by the end of 2013, the number of Rwandan refugees coming back did not increase as was expected. At the time of the interviews, the invocation of the cessation status of Rwandan refugees was a not an issue in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). However, a meeting held on the 2nd of October 2015 came up with new deadlines for the implementation on the cessation clause. This research follows a mini-research for my Honours degree that I conducted in 2014 with Rwandan refugees residing in Johannesburg. This work however differs from my previous pilot study in Johannesburg in two ways; in contrast to this research paper, my interviews in Johannesburg involved Rwandan refugees who had not taken the decision to return to Rwanda. Additionally, the refugee profile in South Africa comprised mostly political asylum-seekers while Rwandan refugees hosted in the DRC (my current research location) are mostly those who fled during the 1994 genocide. Voluntary repatriation is a contested issue. In various instances, refugees feel obliged to return either through active promotion of repatriation, reduction of aid in refugee camps or appalling conditions in countries of asylum. What is also evident is the politics between the countries of asylum and origin and the uncomfortable position the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) finds itself as it seeks to ensure the voluntary character of repatriation as is stipulated by the 1969 OAU convention. The gendered approach taken in migration studies reveals renegotiation of gender relations and roles as a result of displacement. Although the role of women changes considerably; social expectations puts more pressure on men to provide and as the limited livelihood opportunities during displacement curtails their primary role as breadwinners. Gender mainstreaming is one of the approaches employed by the, UNHCR to ensure that women are not only involved in all aspects of planning and development but also in issues of peace and security. The literature on repatriation, suggests that women and men consider different factors in their decision to return; men’s main concern is security while women dwell more on working structures like hospitals and schools for their children. During fieldwork, the household emerged as an important unit for repatriation decision making. The research employed a qualitative design. The tools for data collection included semi-structured in-depth questions for Rwandan refugee participants in Goma and key informants from the UNHCR and their government counterpart in the repatriation exercise the Commission Nationale pour les Réfugiés (CNR). In addition, I engaged in an extensive secondary data search through journals, books, the internet, newspapers and policy documents. Thematic analysis was utilized to analyze the collected data. Based on the findings, it was evident that Rwandan refugee men and women put into consideration different aspects in their decision to return to Rwandan. Men focused mostly on security issues both in the DRC and Rwanda while women considered working structures like schools, hospitals and the hope of reclaiming their spouses’ land for the sake of the children. On the decision to return, single women took the decision on their own while in the case of married couples, the men came up with the idea and discussed it with their wives and children. A cross cutting theme between the interviewed Rwandan refugee men and women was the important function of social networks as a pull factor for return. Social networking was especially important in obtaining information about the specific areas in Rwanda and also acted as assurance for temporary accommodation upon return and therefore reducing the cost of return migration. Based on the findings, access to information for both men and women was not mentioned as a major challenge owing to advances in technology (radios, internet, and mobile phones) and the presence of social networks. Keywords (Returnee, Cessation Clause, Repatriation, Reintegration, Decision-making process, Gender, Identity, Social networking) / MT2017

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2016 / Purpose - The paper provides an investigation of the relationship of macroeconomic risk factors and REITs. The study considers the conditional volatilities of macroeconomic variables on the excess returns and conditional variance of excess returns in developing and developed markets and provides a comparison thereof. Methodology approach - The study employs three-step approach estimation in the methodology (Principal Component Analysis, GARCH (1,1) and GMM) to estimate the asset pricing model. The preliminary study indicated that there are only two developing economies (Bulgaria and South Africa), as defined by National Association of Real Estate Investment Trust (NAREIT), with REIT indices. We additionally included the United States as the developed economy. Findings – Our results indicate that the real economy and business cycles (proxied by GDP growth rate and industrial production index), price stability (proxied by the GDP deflator), exchange rates and interest rates do not explain developing country REIT returns represented by Bulgaria and South Africa, as well as in developed markets, represented by the US. However unlike the developing markets, changes in industrial production and inflation are important variables that affect the conditional variance of REIT returns in the US. / GR2018

Thesis (M.Com. (Marketing Management and Information Systems))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Economic and Business Sciences, 2012. / In today‟s increasingly dynamic and competitive markets, organizations are continuously pressurized to meet financial targets in order to realise company goals in an efficient and effective manner. The banking sector in South Africa has, for a very long time, operated in a predominantly oligopoly market, however, due to increasing pressure from new entrants like Capitec Bank, there has been a shift of focus to ensuring long term profitability and competitiveness as the new entrants are constantly implementing strategies that cause customer switching. The literature reveals that long-term profitability requires that a firm implements sustainable development projects to ensure long-term profitability. However, many of the profitability models in use today do not have a variable for sustainable development and yet it is a key factor in drawing returns on investment. This study adopts the South African banking sector and investigates the applicability of Rust, Lemon and Zeithaml‟s (2004) return on investment model for the various initiatives that the banks have implemented. From qualitative research with the banks, it was found that sustainable development forms a large part of the annual budget with the aim of improving the brand perceptions and increasing the likelihood of customer retention and attraction. However, the results from the bank‟s customers reveal that the initiatives being sponsored by the banks have very little effect on their decision to switch or remain banking with a specified bank. Basic customer satisfaction techniques like clear communication and customer care still outweigh any corporate initiative like sponsoring the local soccer league thus although these initiatives do benefit to keep the brand name in customer‟s minds, they do less in realising returns. The model reveals a technique to quantify return on investment taking into account factors like sustainable development and it was found that the model is applicable and useful in a South African setting. Recommendations include applying the model to gauge not only the possibility of returns but also how much a company can expect to receive after investing a specified amount of money on any initiative. This model will be very useful for planning especially for capital intensive projects as the current economic environment cannot accommodate for misappropriation of funds. / MT2017

This study investigates the peer effect in the asset pricing models in the international stock market. The peer effect theory proposes a dependence between individual decisions due to interactions that create a social network structure. The idea is that we need to understand the correlation between outcomes of individuals that interact in an environment and which could lead to a homogenous pattern of movement especially on asset pricing models. We use a sample of almost 7,000 companies listed on fourteen countries from 2006 to 2016 and arrange them in four peer groups. Since the peer effect has a reflection problem, we divide our empirical models in two aspects. First, we analyze the relationship between stock return from the firm, its financial aspects and the financial aspects for the peer group using a fixed effect regressor. Then, we try to understand the relationship between stock return from a firm, the stock return from the peer firms, the financial aspects from the firm and the financial aspects for the peer group by estimating a 2SLS model with an instrumental variable. Our findings show the existence of peer effects on stock return for all the peer groups. Also, the effects are always positive regardless if we select emerging or developed markets. Moreover, there is exogenous peer effect from the characteristics of the peer firms in the stock return that depends on the indicator and the peer group. Market-to-book ratio of the peers presents a positive relationship with the stock return. As a robustness test, we re-estimate the models for two subsamples and find that the results are consistent to the previous ones. / Este estudo investiga o efeito dos pares nos modelos de precificação de ativos no mercado acionário internacional. A teoria do efeito de pares propõe uma dependência entre decisões individuais devido a interações que criam uma estrutura de rede social. A ideia é entender a correlação entre os resultados de indivíduos que interagem em um ambiente e que podem levar a um padrão de movimento homogêneo, especialmente em modelos de precificação de ativos. Utiliza-se uma amostra de quase 7.000 empresas de capital aberto em catorze países de 2006 a 2016 considerando quatro grupos de referência. Como o efeito par tem o conhecido problema de reflexão, divide-se os modelos empíricos em dois aspectos. Primeiro, analisa-se a relação entre o retorno das ações, os aspectos financeiros da firma e os aspectos financeiros do grupo de referência utilizando um modelo de efeito fixo em painel. Em seguida, busca-se entender a relação entre o retorno das ações de uma empresa, o retorno das ações das empresas pares, os aspectos financeiros de ambas, estimando um modelo 2SLS com uma variável instrumental. Os resultados mostram a existência de comovimento no retorno das ações para todos os grupos de referência. Os efeitos do retorno das ações dos pares são positivos e mais intensos para a indústria e país independentemente se se escolhe mercados emergentes ou desenvolvidos. Além disso, existe um efeito de pares exógeno a partir das características das empresas pares, principalmente para razão market-to-book, que depende do indicador financeiro e do grupo de referência. Como teste de robustez, reestimou-se os modelos para duas subamostras que mostraram resultados consistentes com os anteriores.

This thesis is an empirical event study that examines the short-run performance of initial public offerings (IPO), known as underpricing and initial return. I argue that literature which only presents equal weights could potentially give the reader a skewed understanding of the width of the concept. By using a new data set of Nordic IPOs during the period 2009-2018, I provide estimates using equal as well as market capitalization weights consistently to give a more nuanced and fair picture. The equally weighted first-day initial return is estimated to be 4.96% and the value weighted first-day initial return is estimated to be 5.32% during the examined time period. Further, the initial return is examined in relation to firm characteristics as well as quarterly index returns and issuance volume. No statistically significant characteristics that can identify additional levels of underpricing was found. Quarterly average initial returns and quarterly index returns are independent of each other. In line with previous literature the positive relationship of issuance volume and initial return is valid on a quarterly level, indicating that firms tend to go public in times of positive and higher initial returns to a greater extent.