Master of Arts / Department of Geography / John Harrington Jr / Agriculture is vital to the character of Kansas. It is threaded through the social, economic, and environmental systems that operate in Kansas and bring each system into interaction with one another. Loss of agriculture would mean drastic changes to traditional Kansas way of life due to the three pronged nature of agriculture in Kansas. Continuation of agricultural activity then is of great importance. Globalization, climate change, and environmental change pose threats to agricultural futures. This study is a meta-analysis of current literature in an attempt to assess the current state of sustainable agriculture in the state of Kansas. An emphasis was placed on climate as a driver of change and ways in which agricultural producers in Kansas may begin implementing sustainable adaptations. Barriers to implementing sustainable agricultural adaptations were also identified in the literature. Broadly speaking analysis focused on barriers created through policy and barriers created through gaps in knowledge and weak or missing connections, or cognitive barriers. Information gathered in the course of the literature analysis was used to generate two potential future agricultural scenarios for Kansas. Scenarios can be used to aid policy makers in assessing potential impacts of environmental change and interactions between different systems and scales. Two separate scenarios, Business-As-Usual and Sustainable-Adaptive, were developed with distinct characteristics. The Business-As-Usual scenario represents a future that is framed similar to the current situation. Changes built into the scenario stem from the projected changes to climate. The remainder of the narrative describes a future that has pursued developmental pathways driven by current policy and market forces. In contrast, the Sustainable-Adaptive scenario represents a Policy Reform scenario in which there is strong guidance through policy towards a developmental pathway that focuses on sustainable agricultural methods. This scenario describes a future in which environmental degradation is slowed or even reversed. Continued future work may focus on the role of water availability, community level impacts of sustainable adaptations, and the integration of stakeholder values as another layer of complexity in future scenarios.

O ritmo acentuado e a magnitude das mudanças desafiam a estabilidade em diversos setores da economia, sem indícios que o mundo amanhã será menos instável e complicado. Por isso, as informações acerca do que se conhece hoje já não são suficientes para que se tome uma boa decisão: os gestores precisam antever, de modo sistemático, o que irá acontecer para que possam administrar os efeitos da mudança ou, se possível, antecipá-los, construindo assim o futuro e não somente respondendo a ele quando este mudar. Desde o surgimento dos estudos do futuro no meio empresarial na década de 1970, houve um crescimento da utilização dos cenários. Tal crescimento não afastou, contudo, discussões que abordassem a sua real contribuição, apoiadas principalmente nas seguintes idéias: muitas previsões feitas não se tinham concretizado, eventos inesperados alteram o que se conhece; e eventos acontecem aleatoriamente. Porém, tais idéias foram contestadas considerando que não é possível saber se as previsões falharam, ou o curso da história foi alterado pelo homem ao tomar conhecimento prévio dos problemas; os eventos inesperados não alteram permanentemente todos os sistemas e costumes; e, eventos aparentemente aleatórios possuem uma longa acumulação de tendências na superfície. Portanto, embora, não seja possível conhecer plenamente o futuro, pode-se reconhecer ou, pelo menos, ter uma indicação do que vai acontecer. Uma analogia pode ser feita comparando os cenários ao funcionamento dos faróis de um carro à noite. Embora não revelem tudo o que virá à frente, é impossível guiar o carro com os faróis apagados. Nesse sentido, esta tese buscou compreender como os cenários podem ser usados para a tomada de decisão em marketing. A partir do refinamento deste problema de pesquisa, chegou-se ao objetivo de analisar a elaboração de cenários, como um dos produtos possibilitados pelo Sistema de Informação de Marketing (SIM), para fins de aplicação em marketing. Para atingi-lo, inicialmente foi realizada uma revisão teórica do SIM e de cenários - congregando mais de 25 métodos - estes dois corpos teóricos foram aproximados, o que contribuiu por trazer para o centro das discussões a teoria de cenários, que até então era discutida de forma pouco aprofundada na literatura especializada de marketing. Na sequência, realizou-se uma pesquisa de campo, de caráter exploratório e qualitativo, utilizando-se o método de estudo de casos múltiplos. Participaram da pesquisa 3 empresas de grande porte, com atuação em setores diferentes e presença em mais de 90 países. Concluiu-se que o SIM não pode mais ser entendido como o foi no passado, ou seja, como um sistema separado, pois agora ele é uma parte conectada ao sistema que auxilia a gestão da empresa como um todo. Os cenários, que são elaborados para serem utilizados na tomada de decisão de marketing, são um produto do Sistema de Apoio a Decisões de Marketing e são elaborados a partir da interpretação dos dados e das informações fornecidas pelos demais componentes do SIM: Registros Internos, Inteligência de Marketing e Pesquisa de Marketing. As informações originadas de cada um dos componentes se materializam como insumo principal ou secundário para a elaboração dos cenários, dependendo do tipo de pergunta que se coloca em relação ao futuro, ou seja, se o tomador de decisão quer saber \"o vai acontecer\", então são elaborados cenários preditivos, e os registros internos são o insumo principal para isso; já se a questão colocada for \"o que pode acontecer?\", o insumo principal são as informações originadas no Sistema de Inteligência de Marketing; por fim, se a questão é \"como uma meta específica pode ser alcançada?\", o insumo principal são os registros internos. A tese mostrou que os cenários podem ser usados em marketing para apoiar uma série de decisões que requerem uma melhor compreensão do comportamento futuro tanto do consumidor quanto da concorrência, com a finalidade de identificar oportunidades e riscos de mercado. Enfim, os cenários ajudam os gestores de marketing a estarem mais atentos a temas emergentes. / The sharp pace and magnitude of change in business and the economy defies stability in diverse industries, and there are no evidences that the world tomorrow will be less volatile and complicated. Therefore, information about what is known today is not sufficient for making good decisions: managers need to predict what will happen in a systematic way, so that they can manage the effects of change or, if possible, anticipate them, thereby shaping the future and not just responding to it when it changes. Since the emergence of future studies in business in the 1970s, there was a growth in using scenarios. However, this growth not departed discussions that addressed their actual contribution, supported on the following ideas: many forecast had not materialized, unexpected events change what is known; events happen randomly. However, such ideas were challenged whereas that it is not possible to know if the predictions failed, or the course of history was changed by man for having prior knowledge of problems; unexpected events not alter permanently all systems and customs; and apparently random events have a long accumulation of trends in surface. Therefore, although it is not possible to fully know the future, it can be recognize or at least have an indication of what will happen. An analogy can be made comparing the scenarios with the operation of the headlights of a car at night. Although not show everything that will come forward, it is impossible to drive the car with the headlights off. In this sense, this thesis asks how scenarios can be used for decision making in marketing, from the refinement of this research problem, the goal of analyzing the scenario development, as one of the products made possible by Marketing Information System (MIS), was reached. To achieve this, initially a theoretical review of the MIS and scenarios was conducted; these two theoretical bodies were approximate, which contributed to bringing the theory of scenarios to the center of the discussion, which until then was little discussed in the marketing literature. Qualitative and exploratory field research was carried out, using the method of multiple case studies. It was concluded that the MIS cannot be understood as it was in the past, as a separate system, because now it is connected to the system that assists the management of the company as a whole. The scenarios, which are designed to be used in marketing decision making, are a product of the Marketing Decision Support System and are drawn from the interpretation of the data and information provided by other components of the MIS: Internal Database, Marketing Intelligence, and Marketing Research. The information derived from each component materializes as primary or secondary input to the scenario\'s development, depending on the type of question that arises for the future, i.e., if the decision maker wants to know \"what will happen\", predictive scenarios are then elaborated, and the internal database is the main input for this; if the question is \"what can happen\", the main input is the information originating in the Marketing System and finally, if the question is \"how a specific goal can be achieved\", the main input is Internal Database. The literature and field research showed that scenarios can be used in marketing to support a series of decisions that require a better understanding of both the consumer and competitive future behavior, in order to identify opportunities and market risks. Finally, the scenarios help marketing managers\' attend to the emerging themes.

O presente trabalho traz uma análise sobre os resultados econômico-financeiros que podem ser esperados com a produção de petróleo em reservas localizadas na área do pré-sal no Brasil. Para isso, desenvolve um modelo de simulação da produção e análise econômico-financeira denominado modelo CAMPOS. Inicialmente, o modelo simula a produção que pode ser esperada em cada um dos campos analisados e, a partir desse resultado, calcula as receitas que podem ser esperadas pelos diferentes stakeholders (empresas e poder público) sob distintos cenários de preços do barril de petróleo, de investimentos e de regimes regulatórios. Com relação aos regimes regulatórios, as receitas são simuladas tanto para aqueles vigentes hoje no país (concessões, partilha de produção, cessão onerosa e cessão onerosa com partilha de produção para volumes excedentes), como para outras formas regulatórias, como o regime de serviços. Um dos resultados dos cenários econômico-financeiros são os preços de equilíbrio para cada um dos campos e em cada regime regulatório, indicando o valor mínimo do barril de petróleo que torna a produção no campo viável da perspectiva financeira. Também, são apresentadas todas as receitas governamentais que podem ser esperadas, além de uma estimativa de recursos que devem ir para as áreas da saúde e da educação em decorrência da cobrança de royalties. De modo geral, tem-se que o regime de partilha de produção não foi o que demonstrou trazer mais receitas ao poder público, considerando as premissas com as quais foi simulado neste trabalho, ou seja, com base nas regras e dinâmica de definição da participação da União no óleo produzido conforme o resultado do leilão para o campo de Libra. Isso parece contraditório, já que o regime de partilha de produção foi instaurado no país em 2010 em um contexto de debate nacional acerca das possibilidades de aumentar a parcela governamental sobre a produção em áreas do pré-sal. O regime que mostrou trazer maior receita ao poder público é o regime de serviços, pelo qual a União é investidora e detentora das reservas e dos resultados da produção. No entanto, esse regime não é aplicado no país. Por isso, medidas que aproximem o regime de partilha de produção vigente hoje às regras do regime de serviços concebido, considerando as possibilidades existentes na legislação, tendem a aumentar o valor das receitas governamentais. Após o regime de serviços, aquele que apresenta maior parcela governamental é o regime de concessões, já que a soma das participações especiais e dos royalties normalmente ultrapassa a soma da porcentagem da União sobre o excedente em óleo e royalties no regime de partilha de produção, considerando as premissas de simulação adotadas. Apenas em campos com grandes reservas e quando o preço do barril de petróleo é mais elevado, as receitas governamentais no regime de partilha ultrapassam as do regime de concessões. Assim, conclui-se que para que o regime de partilha de produção traga mais receitas ao poder público, deve haver mecanismos que garantam que a definição da porcentagem da União sobre o excedente em óleo seja mais elevada do que aquela que se verificou no caso do leilão para o campo de Libra, por exemplo. / This research brings an analysis of the economic and financial results that can be expected with the oil production in the pre-salt area in Brazil. The analysis is based in a simulation model called CAMPOS developed within the research framework. Initially, the model simulates the oil production that can be expected in each of the oil fields and from this calculates the revenues that can be expected by different stakeholders (companies and public authorities) under different scenarios for oil prices, investments and regulatory regimes. With respect to regulatory regimes, revenues are simulated both for those currently in force in the country (concession, production sharing and onerous transfer of rights), and for other regulatory forms such as the service regimes. One of the outcomes is the break-even prices for each oil field and for each regulatory regime, indicating the minimum oil price that makes the production viable from the financial perspective. This research also brings all the government takes that can be expected, as well as an estimate of financial resources that may go to health and education sectors as a result of the collection of royalties. In general, the production sharing regime hasnt proved to be the one bringing more revenues to the government, considering the premisses with which it was simulated in this work, that is, based on the rules defined for the Libra field. This seems contradictory, since the production sharing regime was introduced in the country in 2010 in a context of national debate about the possibilities of increasing the government takes coming from oil production in pre-salt areas. The regime that has shown to bring more revenues to the government is the service regime, by which the State is an investor and holds the reserves and oil properties. However, this regime does not apply in the country considering the current legislation in force. Therefore, measures that approximate the production sharing regime currently in force to the rules of the designed service regime, considering the possibilities of the legislation, tend to increase the value of government takes. Considering the premises adopted in the simulations, following the service regime the one showing the largest government take is the concessions scheme. In this case the amount collected in the form of special participations and royalties usually exceeds the amount collected in the production sharing regime in the form of government share in the oil production and royalties. Only in fields with large reserves and when the oil price is high, government takes in the production sharing regime exceeds those of the concessions regime. It follows that in order for the production sharing regime to bring more revenues to the public interest, there must be mechanisms to ensure that the government share in the oil produced is higher than that stablished in the case of the Libra field.

The manufacture of the chemical ethylene, a key ingredient in plastics, currently depends on fossil-fuel-derived carbon and generates significant greenhouse gas emissions. Substituting ethylene's fossil fuel feedstock with alternatives is important for addressing the challenge of global climate change. This paper compares four scenarios for meeting future ethylene supply under differing societal approaches to climate change based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The four scenarios use four perspectives: (1) a sustainability-focused pathway that demands a swift transition to a bioeconomy within 30 years; (2) a regional energy-focused pathway that supports broad biomass use; (3) a fossil-fuel development pathway limited to corn grain; and (4) a fossil-fuel development pathway limited to corn grain and corn stover. Each scenario is developed using the latest scientifically informed future feedstock analyses from the 2016 Billion-Ton report interpreted with perspectives on the future of biomass from recent literature. The intent of this research is to examine how social, economic, and ecological changes determining ethylene supply fit within biophysical boundaries. This new approach to the ethylene feedstocks conundrum finds that phasing out fossil fuels as the main source of U.S. ethylene is possible if current cellulosic ethanol production expands.

O mundo está passando por uma transformação profunda no setor energético. Ao que tudo indica estamos rumando para uma economia baseada em energias renováveis e de baixa emissão de carbono. O programa de bionenergia do Estado de São Paulo é o maior programa de bioenergia do mundo. Dentro desse programa produz-se etanol a partir da cana-de-açúcar, precisamente dos açúcares simples da cana-de-açúcar. O etanol produzido a partir dos açúcares simples da planta é denominado etanol de primeira geração. Entretanto, existe uma nova tecnologia para se produzir etanol a partir da celulose da cana-de-açúcar o etanol de segunda geração que possibilitará aumentar a eficiência energética do processo e fortalecer a competitividade do setor bioenergético nacional. O objetivo desse trabalho é prospectar cenários para o futuro do setor produtivo de etanol em São Paulo tendo em vista o etanol de segunda geração como elemento produtivo adjacente à produção atual de primeira geração. Para isso utilizou-se um modelo de construção de cenários que pressupõe uma detalhada consulta a especialistas, qualificação de variáveis quanto à sua importância e incerteza e identificação de variáveis-chaves. Por fim, foram criadas matrizes e roteiros para os cenários a partir das variáveis-chaves identificadas. Concluiu-se que dos quatro cenários construídos dois são favoráveis, um é desfavorável e um é pouco plausível. A metodologia de geração de variáveis-chaves foi aplicada com sucesso no setor produtivo de etanol. Os cenários criados podem lançar alguma luz possíveis futuros do setor estudado em relação ao etanol de segunda geração. / Nowadays the worlds energy sector is in a process of deep transformation. Apparently the world is going to a renewable energy based matrix, with low carbon emissions. The Sao Paulos bioenergetical program is the biggest renewable energy program in the world. In addition to that, it is also produced in that program ethanol from sugar cane. The ethanol that is produced in that program is made from the simple sugars of sugar cane. This ethanol is named first generation ethanol. However, there is a new technology to produce ethanol from sugar canes cellulose, named second generation ethanol. This important new technology could increase the energetic efficiency of process and make the Brazilians energetic production competitiveness stronger. The objective of this work was to prospect scenarios for the ethanols future in Sao Paulo looking at the second generation ethanol. For that it was used a model of scenario construction that presupposed an exhaustive inquire applied to specialists, qualifying trends related to their importance and uncertainty, and identifying the key parameters. At last, extracting the key parameters, matrices were made, and scripts too, both related to these scenarios. The conclusion was that the methodology for scenarios generation was applied with success on the ethanol industry, and those scenarios were able to illuminate with some light under plausible futures about the second generation ethanol.

Our world teems with networked devices. Their configuration exerts an ever-expanding influence on our daily lives. Yet correctly configuring systems, networks, and access-control policies is notoriously difficult, even for trained professionals. Automated static analysis techniques provide a way to both verify a configuration's correctness and explore its implications. One such approach is scenario-finding: showing concrete scenarios that illustrate potential (mis-)behavior. Scenarios even have a benefit to users without technical expertise, as concrete examples can both trigger and improve users' intuition about their system. This thesis describes a concerted research effort toward improving scenario-finding tools for configuration analysis. We developed Margrave, a scenario-finding tool with special features designed for security policies and configurations. Margrave is not tied to any one specific policy language; rather, it provides an intermediate input language as expressive as first-order logic. This flexibility allows Margrave to reason about many different types of policy. We show Margrave in action on Cisco IOS, a common language for configuring firewalls, demonstrating that scenario-finding with Margrave is useful for debugging and validating real-world configurations. This thesis also presents a theorem showing that, for a restricted subclass of first-order logic, if a sentence is satisfiable then there must exist a satisfying scenario no larger than a computable bound. For such sentences scenario-finding is complete: one can be certain that no scenarios are missed by the analysis, provided that one checks up to the computed bound. We demonstrate that many common configurations fall into this subclass and give algorithmic tests for both sentence membership and counting. We have implemented both in Margrave. Aluminum is a tool that eliminates superfluous information in scenarios and allows users' goals to guide which scenarios are displayed. We quantitatively show that our methods of scenario-reduction and exploration are effective and quite efficient in practice. Our work on Aluminum is making its way into other scenario-finding tools. Finally, we describe FlowLog, a language for network programming that we created with analysis in mind. We show that FlowLog can express many common network programs, yet demonstrate that automated analysis and bug-finding for FlowLog are both feasible as well as complete.

Tendo como base o contexto da indústria de etanol que apresenta incertezas, oportunidades e ameaças, os preceitos teóricos da obtenção de vantagens competitivas sustentáveis a partir do desenvolvimento de capacidades dinâmicas e a análise de ambientes complexos e com a presença de incertezas por meio de cenários, este trabalho apresentou a seguinte questão de pesquisa: Quais são as implicações para o desenvolvimento de capacidades dinâmicas pelas destilarias brasileiras de possíveis cenários do mercado internacional de etanol em 2020? Para respondê-la foi realizado um estudo exploratório, em uma abordagem qualitativa e de natureza aplicada, o qual compreendeu duas etapas. Inicialmente foram elaborados cenários para o mercado internacional de etanol em 2020. Para tanto, utilizou-se o método de elaboração de cenários proposto por Wright e Spers (2006). Em seguida, foi realizada uma pesquisa de campo com uma empresa do setor de etanol, tendo em vista analisar a consistência dos cenários elaborados e explorar empiricamente o conceito de capacidades dinâmicas. Assim, foi realizado um estudo de caso com uma destilaria localizada em Jacarezinho Paraná. Neste trabalho, o escopo dos cenários foi a configuração futura do mercado internacional de etanol. O horizonte de tempo foi 2020, uma vez que grande parte da regulamentação que indica expansão da demanda do mercado internacional baseia-se neste ano. Foram produzidos quatro cenários (Etanol: um biocombustível comercialmente viável, Etanol: a commodity energética global sustentável, Etanol: foco no mercado interno, e Etanol: uma commodity regional) que posteriormente foram submetidos à análise de consistência e indicação do mais provável pela empresa pesquisada neste estudo. Foi indicado como mais provável o cenário Etanol: a commodity energética global sustentável. A partir do cenário mais provável, a empresa pesquisada indicou que, para o futuro, o desafio será desenvolver as capacidades dinâmicas necessárias para capturar as oportunidades e dois pontos importantes foram destacados pela empresa, e que vão de encontro ao segundo grupo de capacidades propostas por Teece (2007), principalmente no que se refere ao delineamento de modelos de negócios e desenvolvimento de ativos complementares. Conforme foi destacado pelo dirigente durante a entrevista, será necessário desenvolver um novo modelo de negócios para as usinas, pois essas são muito suscetíveis às oscilações de mercado de curto prazo, principalmente em relação ao preço do álcool, preço do açúcar, preço do petróleo e preço do milho. Há a necessidade de novas fontes de receita nos períodos de baixa no mercado. Além disso, a empresa enxerga como grande obstáculo para o futuro o desenvolvimento de infra-estrutura logística para a exportação. / Based on a context of the ethanol industry that presents uncertainties, opportunities and threats, on the theoretical background of obtaining sustainable competitive advantage through the development of dynamic capabilities and on the analysis of complex situations using scenarios, this study analyzed the following research question: What are the implications for the development of dynamic capabilities by Brazilian ethanol distilleries of possible scenarios of the global ethanol market in 2020? To answer this question an applied exploratory study was conducted with a qualitative approach. in two stages. Initially scenarios were developed for the international market in 2020, using the scenario development method proposed by Wright and Spers (2006). Next, a field research was conducted with a company in the ethanol industry in order to analyze the consistency of the scenarios developed and empirically explore the concept of dynamic capabilities. Thus, a case study was performed with a firm located in Jacarezinho - Paraná. In this work, the scope of the scenarios was the future state of the international market for ethanol. The time horizon is 2020, since much of the regulations indicates that expansion of demand in the international market is based on this year. It was produced four scenarios (\"Ethanol: a commercially viable biofuel\", \"Ethanol: a sustainable global energy commodity\", \"Ethanol: focus on the domestic market,\" and \"Ethanol: a regional commodity\") that subsequently were analyzed for consistency and indicated the more likely by the company investigated in this study. It was indicated as the most likely scenario \"Ethanol: a sustainable global energy commodity\". From the most likely scenario, the company surveyed indicated that for the future, the challenge will be to develop the dynamic capabilities necessary to capture the opportunities and two important points were highlighted by the company, and are aligned with the second set of capabilities proposed by Teece (2007), especially with regard to the design of business models and development of complementary assets. As noted by the manager during the interview, it will need to develop a new business model for companies, because they are very susceptible to fluctuations in short-term market, especially with the price of alcohol, sugar prices, oil prices and price of corn. There is a need for new sources of revenue in periods of market declines. In addition, the company sees as an obstacle to the future the development of transport infrastructure for export.

A utilização de várias ferramentas de injeção de falhas em um mesmo experimento de testes fornece mais subsídios para os resultados alcançados, tornando a atividade mais efetiva e menos sujeita a erros de interpretação. Neste sentido, as cargas de falhas possuem um importante papel, visto que elas compõem a principal entrada a ser fornecida nestas ferramentas. No entanto, os mecanismos oferecidos, nas ferramentas de injeção de falhas existentes, para esta especificação de cargas de falhas, possuem um baixo grau de usabilidade e expressividade. Por este motivo, o presente trabalho aborda uma metodologia, na qual cenários detalhados de testes, que envolvam experimentos com injeção de falhas, possam ser especificados de maneira simples, homogênea e padronizada. Para isso, é proposta a criação de um ambiente para a especificação destas cargas de falhas, denominado como jFaultload. Este ambiente, por sua vez, utiliza-se de um subconjunto da linguagem Java para a especificação destas cargas de falhas, ficando responsável ainda pela tradução, desta carga em Java, para os respectivos formatos de carga referentes a cada injetor de falhas utilizado em um dado experimento. Para efeito de exemplo e validação do ambiente proposto, as ferramentas FIRMAMENT, MENDOSUS e FAIL/FCI são integradas neste ambiente, tornando assim o cenário de testes amplamente detalhado. O serviço a ser testado, visando a demonstração da usabilidade e expressividade da solução proposta, foi uma sessão de video streaming, utilizando-se para isso do protocolo RTP, onde uma campanha de testes foi realizada com o injetor FIRMAMENT. / Use of two or more fault injection tools in a test campaign enriches the scenario obtained from a test execution. Faultloads represent the main input for these tools but their specification mechanisms lack usability and expressiveness. This thesis presents a full test scenario featuring the use of jFaultload, which applies Java for the specification of faultloads and translates them to specific formats that are appropriate to each available fault injector. FIRMAMENT, MENDOSUS and FAIL/FCI, fault injectors for communication systems, were integrated in the environment and complete the test scenario. The service under test used to demonstrate the usability and expressiveness of our solution is a video streaming session using RTP Protocol, which a test campaign was executed through the FIRMAMENT fault injector.

Abstract Electrodeposited Copper Foil (ED Foil) is the most essential conductive material to PCB. With the recession of electronic industry and the appearance of Internet Economy Bubble for printed circuit board (PCB) industry, PCB industry slowed down its productivity around 2000 and the ED Foil industry in Taiwan had to face the vicious circle as the supply exceeds the demand. As for America, because of the declination of the industry, it is now almost out of the ED Foil industry which means that the global chief city of the field has changed from the States to Japan. However, with the high production costs and labor expenses, Japan is now suspending the enlargement of productivity, Therefore, the productivity of Taiwan till 2005 already ranked the top one in the world. Unfortunately, we are now facing the biggest competitor, China, who has tried enthusiastically to attract our ED Foil and PCB companies to move to his land, especially it has aimed the ED Foil industry as his top target to enkindle. This research has consulted several diverse documents from inside and outside Taiwan through the analyses of industrial structures, ¡§Diamond System¡¨ and ¡§SWOT Analysis¡¨ to have a clear understanding towards the construction of Taiwan¡¦s ED Foil industry and its ¡§competitive advantages¡¨. Owning these accomplished advantages as the base, we can come out the cooperative strategies for ED Foil industry¡¦s future and its ¡§Anti Competition Policy¡¨ according to the ¡§scenarios¡¨. We deeply hope that with these devices, we can strengthen the industrial¡¦s efficiency in our ED Foil¡¦s industry and at the same time, our status in this field can remain competitive around the world. The research found out that in ED Foil industry¡¦s area, the early players monopolized the market and twisted the market¡¦s efficiency at the same time. Therefore, those early players got the chance to earn a huge sum of money and as a result, some potential competitors joined the market to share the benefits. Besides, because of the rising concept of globalization among the mega electronic companies, more and more module and component companies are willing to be localized to correspond to the change. Simultaneously, the demand of both PCB and ED Foil has started to increase in Asia; therefore, the ED Foil industry in Taiwan is getting more and more prosperous because of the favorable geographical position. Moreover, high performing and large-sized facilities are adapted to produce high quality and low cost merchandizes efficiently to enhance the competitiveness in the industry. Therefore, the chain that connected with the downstream industry has become more completed and moreover, the bunching effect can be elaborate thoroughly. According to the research, we have discovered that there are many uncertainties within the operation of Taiwan¡¦s ED Foil industry such as the slight increase of the demand in Taiwan and the exports are overly centered on Hong Kong and China. Other concern like the percentage of the fixed prime cost is excessively high matters the efficiency of the productivity and as a result, a price war comes out easily because of the supply exceeds the demand. In the meantime, we have come out with the conclusion that the government should actively help the integration of the industry¡¦s future development. And we suggest that the ED Foil industry in Taiwan should take the co-opetition policy as follows: 1. The buying-associations that share the supplementary values of the recycling copper wires and R&D-associations can share the R&D cost in the area of the newly applying development will be erected to largely reduce the prime costs. Furthermore, an information exchange center will be provided for those associations to utilize others¡¦ useful experiences. 2. The business cooperative operations either with the same upstream or downstream companies all necessarily needed to be constructed. Those united cooperation such as Mergers & Acquisitions should be promoted within industries, including investments. These strategies will accelerate the development of the business. 3. New and prosperous markets such as Thailand and Vietnam need to be explored to disperse our export markets to decrease our dependency on China. 4. Complementary relationship and proper division of labors should be built up within cross-Strait without making other vicious competitions.

Software specification by scenarios has grown with the popularity of object-oriented software engineering. Scenarios such as use cases provide a bridge from the informal descriptions gathered from user interviews toward the more formal software model. Yet, practitioners still request more explicit methodological guidance and more adequate tool support for authoring quality scenarios. Researchers have been seeking a means to overcome the limitations of use cases such as partialness and incompleteness. One of such research streams is an extension of scenarios with more formal representation schemes. This approach may reduce incompleteness of scenarios; however, applicability of the approach to practice remains open to discussion, considering that the current usage of formal scenario representations is very low. This research takes software reuse approach to assist scenario-building process. In the proposed approach, a software analyst defines an initial description of a scenario. An automated tool support then presents a set of similar use cases retrieved from a database of use cases. The analyst adapts a retrieved use case to the current purpose. This dissertation research is expected to have unique contributions to research and practice. The proposed automated scenario reuse provides a viable solution to guide scenario-authoring process without imposing an additional burden of adding formal annotations to system specifications on system analysts. By adopting a machinelearning algorithm based on relational structure matching, the scenario reuse places more focus on UML semantics, relational information among UML elements rather than syntactic attributes of scenarios or natural language descriptions. In addition, the proposed scenario reuse can be augmented with other approaches and design artifacts, depending on customized needs in a given context of problem domains. In terms of research methodology, this dissertation research takes four steps. First, I develop prototype software for the automated tool support. It can be incorporated into a CASE tool as an add-in program. Second, preliminary case studies are taken to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed approach. Third, expert opinions are collected regarding the effectiveness and efficiency of the tool support. Finally, a lab experiment and a free simulation experiment are conducted for more rigorous empirical validation.