East Asia is both prosperous and dangerous region. This works applies scenarios, as a prominent method of futures on the East Asian region.

The aim of this research has been to identify the most sustainable options for electricity production in Mexico with an outlook to 2050. An integrated methodology for sustainability assessment of different electricity technologies and scenarios has been developed, taking into account environmental, economic and social aspects. The environmental impacts have been estimated using life cycle assessment; the economic costs considered include total capital and annualised costs while social aspects include security and diversity of energy supply, public acceptability, health and safety impacts and intergenerational issues. To help identify the most sustainable options, multi-criteria decision analysis has been used. The methodology has been applied to Mexican conditions for the assessment of both current and future electricity production. The results for the current situation show that on a life cycle basis 129 million tonnes of CO2 eq. are emitted annually from 225 TWh of electricity generated in Mexico. Heavy fuel oil, gas and coal power plants contribute together to 87% of CO2 eq. emissions. Total annualised costs are estimated at US$ 22.4 billion/yr with the fuel costs contributing 54%, mainly due to the operation of gas and heavy fuel oil power plants. A range of future scenarios up to 2050 has been developed in an attempt to identify the most sustainable options. The development of the scenarios has been driven and informed by the national greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 50% by 2050 on the 2000 levels, translating to an 85% reduction from the power sector. The results show that the business as usual (BAU) scenario (with the highest contribution from fossil fuels) is the least sustainable option with the CO2 eq. emissions increasing by almost 300% and the annualised costs by 290% for a projected electricity demand of 813 TWh in 2050. Overall, the most sustainable scenarios are those with higher penetration of renewable energies (wind, solar and hydro) and nuclear power, as in Green, A-3 and C-3. For example, compared to the BAU scenarios, the CO2 eq. emissions reduce by 84%, 89% and 89%, respectively. Although renewable energy based scenarios require high capital costs, the total annualised costs even out over time due to lower fuel costs. The lowest annualised costs are for C-3 scenario, representing a 40% reduction on BAU. With respect to social issues, the BAU scenario is also the least preferred option with the highest risks related to security and diversity of supply, health and safety and climate change. The most sustainable options are scenarios A-3 and Green, with social barriers related to public acceptability, reliability of supply and availability of energy resource. Most critical aspects for scenario C-3 are health and safety risks, and intergenerational issues related to nuclear power. Therefore, the Mexican Government should aim to strengthen the current low carbon energy policies as well as put measures in place to encourage reducing the electricity demand. In the case of the energy policy driver focusing on climate change mitigation or annualised costs, scenarios A-3 and C-3 are the most sustainable options.

Der Einsatz von E-Tutoren als Lernbegleiter in komplexen E-Learning-Szenarien sowie deren positive Wirkung auf die Lernenden wird in der Literatur vielfach diskutiert. Das SMWK-geförderte Projekt E‑TuPrax (07/2013-12/2014) knüpfte an diesen Diskurs unmittelbar an. Es hatte u.a. zum Ziel, die Rolle der E-Tutoren in komplexen E-Learning-Szenarien an sächsischen Hochschulen zu erproben und stärker zu professionalisieren. Um dies zu erreichen, wurden insgesamt 33 speziell qualifizierte E-Tutoren in zwei standortübergreifenden E-Learning-Szenarien des IHI Zittau eingesetzt und beforscht. Die dabei gewonnenen Erkenntnisse und Erfahrungen flossen in ein ganzheitliches Konzept für den Einsatz von E-Tutoren in der sächsischen Hochschullehre ein.

Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.

Tendo como base o contexto da indústria de etanol que apresenta incertezas, oportunidades e ameaças, os preceitos teóricos da obtenção de vantagens competitivas sustentáveis a partir do desenvolvimento de capacidades dinâmicas e a análise de ambientes complexos e com a presença de incertezas por meio de cenários, este trabalho apresentou a seguinte questão de pesquisa: Quais são as implicações para o desenvolvimento de capacidades dinâmicas pelas destilarias brasileiras de possíveis cenários do mercado internacional de etanol em 2020? Para respondê-la foi realizado um estudo exploratório, em uma abordagem qualitativa e de natureza aplicada, o qual compreendeu duas etapas. Inicialmente foram elaborados cenários para o mercado internacional de etanol em 2020. Para tanto, utilizou-se o método de elaboração de cenários proposto por Wright e Spers (2006). Em seguida, foi realizada uma pesquisa de campo com uma empresa do setor de etanol, tendo em vista analisar a consistência dos cenários elaborados e explorar empiricamente o conceito de capacidades dinâmicas. Assim, foi realizado um estudo de caso com uma destilaria localizada em Jacarezinho Paraná. Neste trabalho, o escopo dos cenários foi a configuração futura do mercado internacional de etanol. O horizonte de tempo foi 2020, uma vez que grande parte da regulamentação que indica expansão da demanda do mercado internacional baseia-se neste ano. Foram produzidos quatro cenários (Etanol: um biocombustível comercialmente viável, Etanol: a commodity energética global sustentável, Etanol: foco no mercado interno, e Etanol: uma commodity regional) que posteriormente foram submetidos à análise de consistência e indicação do mais provável pela empresa pesquisada neste estudo. Foi indicado como mais provável o cenário Etanol: a commodity energética global sustentável. A partir do cenário mais provável, a empresa pesquisada indicou que, para o futuro, o desafio será desenvolver as capacidades dinâmicas necessárias para capturar as oportunidades e dois pontos importantes foram destacados pela empresa, e que vão de encontro ao segundo grupo de capacidades propostas por Teece (2007), principalmente no que se refere ao delineamento de modelos de negócios e desenvolvimento de ativos complementares. Conforme foi destacado pelo dirigente durante a entrevista, será necessário desenvolver um novo modelo de negócios para as usinas, pois essas são muito suscetíveis às oscilações de mercado de curto prazo, principalmente em relação ao preço do álcool, preço do açúcar, preço do petróleo e preço do milho. Há a necessidade de novas fontes de receita nos períodos de baixa no mercado. Além disso, a empresa enxerga como grande obstáculo para o futuro o desenvolvimento de infra-estrutura logística para a exportação. / Based on a context of the ethanol industry that presents uncertainties, opportunities and threats, on the theoretical background of obtaining sustainable competitive advantage through the development of dynamic capabilities and on the analysis of complex situations using scenarios, this study analyzed the following research question: What are the implications for the development of dynamic capabilities by Brazilian ethanol distilleries of possible scenarios of the global ethanol market in 2020? To answer this question an applied exploratory study was conducted with a qualitative approach. in two stages. Initially scenarios were developed for the international market in 2020, using the scenario development method proposed by Wright and Spers (2006). Next, a field research was conducted with a company in the ethanol industry in order to analyze the consistency of the scenarios developed and empirically explore the concept of dynamic capabilities. Thus, a case study was performed with a firm located in Jacarezinho - Paraná. In this work, the scope of the scenarios was the future state of the international market for ethanol. The time horizon is 2020, since much of the regulations indicates that expansion of demand in the international market is based on this year. It was produced four scenarios (\"Ethanol: a commercially viable biofuel\", \"Ethanol: a sustainable global energy commodity\", \"Ethanol: focus on the domestic market,\" and \"Ethanol: a regional commodity\") that subsequently were analyzed for consistency and indicated the more likely by the company investigated in this study. It was indicated as the most likely scenario \"Ethanol: a sustainable global energy commodity\". From the most likely scenario, the company surveyed indicated that for the future, the challenge will be to develop the dynamic capabilities necessary to capture the opportunities and two important points were highlighted by the company, and are aligned with the second set of capabilities proposed by Teece (2007), especially with regard to the design of business models and development of complementary assets. As noted by the manager during the interview, it will need to develop a new business model for companies, because they are very susceptible to fluctuations in short-term market, especially with the price of alcohol, sugar prices, oil prices and price of corn. There is a need for new sources of revenue in periods of market declines. In addition, the company sees as an obstacle to the future the development of transport infrastructure for export.

Sweden has the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions without increasing emissions abroad. This study uses consumption-based emissions data from the PRINCE-project to show where emissions from Swedish consumption take place and how large the share of fossil fuel emissions is. Scenarios are made to compare the emission reductions from reducing the use of fossil fuels to the potential for emission reductions by changes in consumption patterns for three main consumption groups, food, buildings &amp; construction, and transport. These three consumption groups represent 67 % of the Swedish consumption-based emissions. The results show that Sweden has limited though still significant impact on consumption-based emissions since most emissions take place outside Sweden. For the three main consumption groups, it is shown that changing consumption patterns has the same potential for reducing the emissions than completely ending the use of fossil fuels in Sweden. Large differences exist between the consumption groups. Ending the use of fossil fuels in Sweden would reduce emissions from food by 21 %, from buildings &amp; construction by 50 % and from transport by 27 %. It can be concluded that if Sweden wants to lower their emissions from consumption, it is important to take measures at both national and international level. Focusing on both reducing fossil fuel use as well as changes in consumption patterns prove to be equally important and should be taken simultaneously to achieve the largest and fastest emissions reductions. / <p>2020-06-13</p>

TECNALIA Research &amp; Innovation is the first privately funded applied research centre in Spain and one of the leading such centres in Europe. A renowned technological agent in the development of innovative and sustainable solutions for the energy and environmental challenges of industry and society, TECNALIA addresses the complex challenges of energy supply chain and energy systems. Contributing to these efforts, the project builds a model of the energy system in Basque Country, which is characterized by (1) high representation of industry; the most energy intensive sector (about 45% in the energy demand ) (2) the high consumption of fossil fuels (about 83% of Basque energy use in 2010). These challenges (and others) along with the compliance with EU targets to reduce GHGs emissions, to promote renewables and implement measures for energy savings and efficient use of energy, are key drivers to simulate different policy-based scenarios to study and analyze the impact of these measures over different time frames. The aim of this thesis is prepare energy scenarios for the Basque Country for 2050, taking into account different low-carbon pathways and integrating a life-cycle perspective which includes not only the impact during the use and operation phase of energy systems, but also the impacts during the other life cycle phases (manufacturing, installation, end of life).

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The concept of using qualitative measures to describe the quality of service at signalized intersections provided by different designs and controls has been discussed in numerous conferences. Such measures may include driver's comfort, convenience, anxiety, and preferences. The primary objective of this study was to demonstrate the feasibility of using the University of Central Florida's interactive driving simulator to execute several scenarios involving different unusual design and operation practices to measure the quality of service at a signalized intersection. This thesis describes the scenarios, the experiments conducted, the data collected, and analysis of results. Signalized intersections with 3 types of characteristic features were identified for this study. They included 1. A lane dropping on the downstream side of the intersection 2. Misalignment of traffic lanes between the approach and downstream side 3. Shared left turn and through traffic lane or separate lanes for each approaching the intersection The experimental phase consisted of a brief orientation session to get acclimated to the driving simulator followed by two driving scenarios presented to all subjects. Each scenario consisted of a drive through an urban section of the simulator's visual data base where each subject encountered a Type 1, 2 and 3 intersections. A total of 40 subjects, 25 males and 15 females were recruited for the experiment. Data logging at 60 Hz for each scenario consisted of time-stamped values of x-position and y-position of the simulator vehicle, steering, accelerator and brake inputs by the driver, and vehicle speed. After the experiment a questionnaire soliciting opinions and reactions about each intersection was administered. Simulator experiment results showed that there was a significant difference between the merge lengths for the two cases of Type 1 intersection (lane drop on the downstream side of the intersection). For Type 2 intersection (misalignment of traffic lanes between the approach and downstream side) there was a considerable difference between the average paths followed by subjects for the two cases. For Type 3 intersection (shared left and through traffic lane approaching the intersection) the simulator experiment supported the fact that people get frustrated when trapped behind a left turning vehicle in a joint left and through lane intersection and take evasive actions to cross the intersection as soon as possible.

No description available.