As part of the UK’s effort to combat climate change, deep reductions in carbon emissions will be required from existing social housing. This thesis explores the viability of achieving such a goal through a case-study approach, focusing on Peabody, a large housing association operating in London. A model was developed for Peabody’s existing housing stock that quantifies the impacts of technical carbon reduction interventions on stock carbon emissions, Peabody’s expenditure and residents’ fuel bills for the period up to 2030. A participant observation study, conducted from 2006 to 2009, explored the impact of contextual factors influencing the viability of Peabody carrying out the considered technical interventions. The model study found that the Greater London Authority’s target of achieving 60% emission cuts by 2025 could be achieved, but only through extensive stock refurbishment, including a widespread use of solid wall insulation. An external context of substantial reductions in the carbon intensity of the national grid and constrained resident demand for energy is also required. Even where considerable financial support for refurbishment from Government was assumed, the model provided evidence of a funding gap of tens of millions of pounds which would need to be bridged if the required measures were to be carried out. The participant observation study found that the prohibitive cost of carrying out carbon reduction measures is the key barrier currently holding back progress. Other significant issues are related to Government policy, including the inability to raise income from residents to offset refurbishment spending, and the lack of a long term framework to drive action to reduce emissions from existing UK housing. By coupling an analysis of technical interventions with analysis of their financial and political viability, this thesis demonstrates that the achievement of deep emission cuts from Peabody’s existing stock is certainly possible, but requires changes in Government policy and increased efforts from all stakeholders concerned if it is to come to pass.

The focus of the research programme within this thesis is an investigation of scenario-based simulation training in undergraduate healthcare education. The aim of the main study was to determine the effectiveness of high-fidelity simulation training with adult branch nursing students. Their acquisition of knowledge and skills was tested using a 15-station Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) pre- and post- the simulation intervention with randomised control and experimental groups of volunteer students. The results show that simulation training is an effective learning method as students from the experimental group, who were given the opportunity to observe and take part in high-fidelity simulation training followed by debriefing, made significantly higher improvements between their two OSCE performances than students from the control group. The second study focused on interprofessional learning with a randomised control group investigation of the students’ knowledge of the roles and skills of other healthcare professions involved in the same simulation session. The results demonstrate that observing and taking part in multidisciplinary scenarios and their debriefings contributed to the students’ acquisition of knowledge about the roles and skills of other health professionals. The study also showed that students’ perception of multidisciplinary team working was significantly influenced by whether or not they had experienced interprofessional high-fidelity scenario-based simulation training. The main original themes emerging from the research work presented in this thesis comprise the implementation of high-fidelity scenario-based simulation training and debriefing with undergraduate students from a range of healthcare disciplines and the objective measure of the effectiveness of such learning opportunities. This work has now started to impact on simulation practice in undergraduate education within the University and beyond

The precision of formal specifications allows us to prove program correctness. Even if formal methods are not used throughout the software project, formalisation improves our understanding of the problem. Formal specifications are amenable to automated analysis and consistency checking. However using them is challenging. Customers do not understand formal notations. Specifiers have difficulty tackling large problems. Once systems are built, formal specifications quickly become outdated during software maintenance. A method of developing formal specifications using concrete scenarios is proposed to tackle the disadvantages just mentioned. A concrete scenario describes system behaviour with successive steps. The pre- and post-states of scenario steps are expressed with actual data rather than variables. Concrete scenarios are expressed in a natural language or formal notation. They increase customer involvement in the creation of formal specifications. Scenarios may be ranked by priorities allowing specifiers to focus on a small part of the system. Formal specifications are constructed incrementally. New requirements are also captured in concrete scenarios which guide the modification of formal specifications. On one hand, concrete scenarios assist the creation and maintenance of formal specifications. On the other hand, they facilitate program correctness proofs without using conventional formal specifications. This is achieved by adding implementation details to customer scenarios. The resulting developer scenarios, encapsulating decisions of data structures and algorithms, are generalised to operation schemas. With the implementation details, the schemas written in formal notations are programs rather than specifications.

In recent years, there has been an increasing demand to study the information needs and information-seeking behaviour of doctors as an essential element in developing successful clinical information systems and improving the quality of healthcare services. This doctoral thesis focuses on exploring the information needs and information seeking behaviour of doctors in Kuwait government hospitals (KGH). The aims are to investigate the internal and external information sources used by doctors in Kuwait government hospitals and to analyse whether the existing clinical information sources meet their needs. A strategy of sequential, mixed-method procedures was followed to gather the research data using focus groups, a paper-based questionnaire and semi-structured telephone interviews. The participants of the research included all categories of doctors (consultants, senior specialists, specialists, senior registrar, registrar, assistant registrar and trainees), working in four government hospitals: Mubarak AI Kabeer, AI Sabaha, AI Farwania and AI Amiri in Kuwait. The findings of the study show that the most frequently mentioned need for information was to keep up-to-date to maintain good practice. It was found that interpersonal communication and a doctor's personal collection, consisting primarily of electronic resources, were the sources most frequently reported as used by the doctors. However, the degree of use of clinical information sources showed that doctors' information seeking varied depending on the clinical scenario. Doctors' knowledge and patient data were the doctors' most frequently used sources of information in the three clinical scenarios: outpatients, wards and the emergency department. There was a low use of knowledge-support resources such as the Internet and library resources in the outpatient and emergency rooms. However, use of the knowledge-support resources was highest in the wards. The results showed some contextual factors either supported or hindered doctors in seeking the information they need. The factors were categorised in the following contexts: a) Organisation context, b) Socio-cultural context; c) Information sources context and d) Scenarios context. Doctors made a number of suggestions for effective information communication and improving the information provision system in KGH. Two conceptual models result from the study findings: a clinical decision-making model scenario· and the overall conceptual model of information seeking by doctors in Kuwait government hospitals. The thesis concludes with recommendations and practical implications to enhance the information provision in KGH. Suggestions for further research are also given.

Advancements in computation and development of physically based hydrologic models to simulate complex vadose zone scenarios helped the research community to evaluate different scenarios easily compared to long-term field experiments. However, some field data collection is necessary to obtain input data such as soil properties, water usage and land management practices to validate the model performance specific to the site. Data obtained from field experiments conducted in 2011 at Hespler farms, Winkler, MB was used in this research for model calibration and validation. The hydrologic model, HYDRUS (2D/3D) was evaluated using parameters such as visual and statistical analysis. Model evaluation during the calibration and validation stage gave RMSE values of 0.019 and 0.015 cm3 cm-3; PBIAS values of -1.01 and -0.14, respectively, suggesting that the model was efficient in simulating soil water content similar to the field observed data. The validated models were then used to simulate outcomes for different scenarios such as 30-year rainfall data (1986 – 2015), different soil physical properties, and drainage system design parameters. Models simulating free drainage predicted lower soil water content compared to controlled drainage leading to 6 – 60 more trafficable days for 8 m spacing and 0.9 drain base depth. Free drainage predicted 8 – 110 additional trafficable days compared to controlled drainage for 15 m spacing and 1.1 drain depth. Heavier than normal rainfall events caused high water contents leading to a few years with a very low to no trafficable days under controlled drainage conditions. The comparisons are presented based on models using free drain conditions. Models with 8-m drain spacing predicted a 1 to 10-day increase in the number of trafficable days compared to the 15-m drain spacing. Drains placed at a base depth of 1.1 m below the soil surface predicted 4 - 40 more trafficable days compared to those installed at a base depth of 0.9 m. / October 2017

Dans le contexte de la planification de projet, l’objectif de cette thèse est de s’intéresser à la prise en compte, dès les phases de conception de projet, des différents aléas potentiels pouvant survenir au cours du projet. Nous proposons ainsi une approche permettant de fiabiliser les estimations nécessaires à la prise de décision. Cette approche vise à adresser deux problématiques bien spécifiques (i) comment, pour l’évaluation d’un projet, pourrait-on tenir compte de l’ensemble des éventualités, événements et situations que le projet pourrait rencontrer au cours de son déroulement et (ii) comment tenir compte des liens et relations qui peuvent exister entre les risques. Pour cela, un modèle d’évaluation des scénarios de risque projet en variables mixtes multi risques, multi impacts, multi stratégies de traitement, multi dépendances, est proposé. Le modèle développé est intégré à un cadre de simulation permettant de traiter le processus complet de planification de projet. Un prototype informatique supportant cette approche a ainsi été développé et appliqué sur un cas d’étude issue du secteur pharmaceutique (conduite d’une étude clinique). / In the context of project planning, the objective of this thesis is to focus on the consideration, from the design phase of the project, of the various potential hazards that may arise during the project. We propose an approach for reliable estimates needed for decision-making. This approach aims to address two specific problems (i) how to evaluate a project, one might consider all possibilities, events and situations that the project could encounter during its implementation and (ii) how to address the linkages and relationships that can co-exist between risks. For this, a model for assessing the scenarios of risk-project in the mixed variables of multi-risk, multiimpact, multi-strategy of treatments and multi-dependency, is proposed. The developed model is integrated into a simulation framework for handling the entire process of project planning. A prototype computer program that supports this approach has been developed and applied in a case study for the pharmaceutical sector (conducting a clinical study).

This paper applies the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to project national populations based on alternative assumptions on future, fertility, mortality, migration and educational transitions that correspond to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) storylines. In doing so it goes a significant step beyond past population scenarios in the IPCC context which considered only total population size. By differentiating the human population not only by age and sex - as is conventionally done in demographic projections - but also by different levels of educational attainment the most fundamental aspects of human development and social change are being explicitly addressed through modeling the changing composition of populations by these three important individual characteristics. The scenarios have been defined in a collaborative effort of the international Integrated Assessment Modeling community with themedium scenario following that of a major new effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OEAW, WU) involving over 550 experts from around the world. As a result, in terms of total world population size the trajectories resulting from the five SSPs stay very close to each other until around 2030 and by the middle of the century already a visible differentiation appears with the range between the highest (SSP3) and the lowest (SSP1) trajectories spanning 1.5 billion. The range opens up much more with the SSP3 reaching 12.6 billion in 2100 and SSP1 falling to 6.9 billion which is lower than today's world population.

[pt] A abordagem multicritério é empregada no contexto de avaliação de modelos geradores de cenários sintéticos, tendo como objetivo ordená-los em relação ao desempenho global do ponto de vista estocástico. Ao longo dos últimos anos, têm sido desenvolvidos modelos alternativos de geração de cenários para utilização no planejamento energético da operação hidrotérmica de médio prazo. Esses estudos são motivados pela necessidade contínua de se investigar melhorias na modelagem vigente. A proposta de desenvolvimento de um índice capaz de ordenar diversos modelos surgiu da falta de uma avaliação categórica das modelagens que vinham sendo propostas no decurso dos anos. Tendo isso em vista utilizou-se o Processo de Análise Hierárquica, ou em inglês AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), com o intuito de auxiliar a escolha do melhor processo gerador de cenários. Essa abordagem gera pesos para cada um dos atributos selecionados e, a partir desses valores, ponderam-se as alternativas. O problema é estruturado de forma hierárquica em quatro níveis, sendo, em ordem decrescente: objetivo, critérios, subcritérios e alternativas. Os subcritérios selecionados são agrupados em critérios que representam testes escolhidos para avaliar os modelos em julgamento (alternativas). O processo de geração de pesos foi feito através de consulta aos especialistas do setor elétrico (ONS, EPE, CEPEL, PSR, entre outros), buscando gerar os melhores resultados possíveis e expandir a aplicabilidade da modelagem. Com o objetivo de auxiliar o tomador de decisão, a abordagem proposta mostrou-se eficiente ao ordenar os modelos e indicar, através de análises de sensibilidade dos atributos, a volatilidade das alternativas. / [en] Multicriteria approach is deployed in the context of evaluation of synthetic scenarios generating models, having as its purpose to order them concerning the overall performance in the stochastic point of view. Alternative scenarios generating models are being developed through the years to be used in medium-term hydrothermal operation energy planning. These studies are motivated by the ongoing necessity of investigating improvements in the current pattern. The development proposal of an index capable of sorting several models has come from the lack of a categorical evaluation on patterns, which have been proposed in the course of years. Taking it into consideration, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been used in order to assist the adoption of the best scenarios generating process. This approach creates weights for each one of the selected attributes and, starting from these values, alternatives are pondered. The problem is hierarchically structured in four levels, which, in descending order are: objective, criteria, subcriteria and alternatives. The selected subcriteria are grouped in criteria which represent statistical tests chosen to assess the models that are being judged (alternatives). The weights generation process was held through consulting Brazilian electrical sector specialists [National Operator of the Electrical System (ONS), Public Company of Energy Research (EPE), Research Center of Electric Power (CEPEL), PSR, among others], aiming at producing the best achievable results and at expanding the applicability of the pattern. Excelling the support to the decision maker, the suggested approach has shown efficient at ordering the models and indicating, through attributes sensitivity analysis, the volatility of the alternatives.

Due to turbulence in the financial market throughout history, stress testing has become a growing part of the risk analysis performed by clearing houses. Events connected to previous crises have increased the demand for prudent risk exposure, and in this thesis we investigate regulators view on how CCPs should construct risk scenarios to meet best practice for stress testing their members’ composite portfolios. A method based on multivariate t-distributions and copula-transformations applied to historical time series data, is proposed for constructing an independent scenario generator which should be used as a compliment to other, more knowledge-based methods. The method was implemented in Matlab to test the theory in practice, and experiments were setup for pure stock portfolios as well as for derivative based portfolios. Backtests were then carried out to validate the underlying theory on historical data spanning 25 years in total. Results show that the method proposed in this thesis indeed has the potential to be a useful approach for creating stress scenarios. Its ability to render specific levels of plausibility seems to show a sufficient level of consistency with real life data, and further research is thereby justified.

Esta tese investiga o campo da imagem como forma de projetar o território urbano. O referencial teórico-metodológico adotado decorre da articulação do imaginário social a partir das visões de Walter Benjamin e Aby Warburg com os cenários pela visão de Paulo Reyes. Com vistas a uma articulação metodológica, busca-se demonstrar a possibilidade de associar os procedimentos de análise do imaginário social aos de síntese do projeto por cenários. A leitura e escrita dos aspectos subjetivos e imaginários da multifacetada realidade urbana, conjugada a um método de planejamento estratégico mais abrangente e plural. mostra-se pertinente às complexidades inerentes à cidade contemporânea. O imaginário social é decifrado através de operações imagéticas que dão a ver e a ler valores, desejos e necessidades coletivas. Ao inverter-se esse procedimento analítico, é possível sintetizar representações a partir de elementos do imaginário, conferindo-lhe caráter projetivo e projetual através do projeto urbano por cenários. A criação de cenários projetuais a partir dos procedimentos de montagem do imaginário social - as "imagens dialéticas" benjaminianas e os mosaicos do "Atlas Mnemosyne" warburguiano- combinados aos dos cenárioso "gráfico de polaridades" reyesiano- permite ampliar e qualificar o processo de leitura-escrita das narrativas por imagens. Mais do que representar, pensar e projetar por cenários é construir imagens que explicitam conflitos no território e promovem um processo projetual mais aberto, flexível e democrático. As complementaridades e analogias na capacidade hermenêutica das imagens são evidenciadas ao serem relacionadas as estruturas narrativas do imaginário social à estratégia projetual do pensamento por cenários. No âmbito da história cultural. o cruzamento de narrativas do imaginário social e do projeto por cenários denota o parentesco de operações dialéticas em que as imagens têm fator fundante tanto em ações analíticas como de sínteses projetuais da cidade. / This thesis investigates the image field as a way to design the urban territory. The theoretical framework stems from the relationship between the social imaginary from the visions by Walter Benjamin and Aby Warburg and the scenarios, from Paul Reyes' vision. With the aim to a methodological articulation, it seeks to demonstra te the possibility o f associating the analytical procedures o f the social imaginary to those o f synthesis o f the design by scenarios. The reading and writing of the subjective and imaginary aspects o f the multifaceted urban reality, articulated to a more comprehensive and pluralistic strategic planning method, is pertinent to the inherent complexities of the contemporary city. The social imaginary is deciphered through operations with images that allow seeing and reading values, desires and collective needs. By inverting the analytical procedure, it is possible to synthesize representations from elements o f the imaginary, giving it a projective and projectual character through the urban design by scenarios. The creation o f design scenarios based on the social imaginary mounting proceduresthe Benjaminian "dialectical images" and the mosaics of the Warburguian "Atlas Mnemosyne"- combined with the scenarios- the Reyesian "polarity map"- allows to enlarge and qualify the processo f reading-writing o f narratives through images. More than representing, thinking and projecting by scenarios is to construct images that make conflicts in the territory explicit and promote a more open, flexible and democratic design process. The complementarities and analogies in the hermeneutic capacity of the images are evidenced when the narrative structures of the social imaginary are related with the projective strategy of the design by scenarios. In the cultural history context, the intersection of narratives of the social imaginary and the design by scenarios denotes the affinity of dialectical operations in which the images have a founding factor in analytical actions so as in projectual syntheses of the city.