Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-10T16:05:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Barbara_Zanini.pdf: 2626172 bytes, checksum: a3d5dcb97ebbfb3aef2ce6349805e021 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-08 / This study aimed to analyze the economic and financial viability of the company Alfa and point intervention scenarios. The methodology used to conduct this study was to collect and analyze data qualitatively and quantitatively. The collection and qualitative analysis was done by means of semi-structured interviews with the kind owner applying as a diagnostic tool SWOT analysis and Business Model Canvas frame. The quantitative analysis was performed using Microsoft Excel® spreadsheet with the application of the financial evaluation techniques with them the Net Present Value (NPV), the Profitability Index (IL), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), the Time return on invested capital (Payback) and, finally, the Scenario Analysis. The results showed that the way has been carrying out its activities, the Alfa company is not viable economically and financially, since the financial ratios indicated that the company would be viable in a growth scenario of 10% per year difficult situation to occur in the current economic scenario. Presenting the results for the business it chose to sell the business. In the present study were used deterministic methods, which do not consider the uncertainties of the market and future scenarios. So, for future research, using methods not deterministic is suggested as methods of Monte Carlo and Fuzzy Logic / Este estudo teve o objetivo de analisar a viabilidade econômica e financeira da empresa Alfa e apontar cenários de intervenção. A metodologia utilizada para a realização desse trabalho foi a coleta e análise de dados de forma qualitativa e quantitativa. A coleta e análise qualitativa se deu por meio de entrevistas do tipo semiestruturada com o proprietário aplicando como ferramenta de diagnóstico a análise SWOT e o quadro Business Model Canvas. A análise quantitativa foi elaborada através de planilha no Microsoft Excel® com a aplicação das técnicas de avaliação financeira sendo elas o Valor Presente Líquido (VPL), o Índice de Lucratividade (IL), a Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR), o Tempo de Retorno do capital investido (Payback) e, por fim, a Análise de Cenários. Os resultados mostraram que, da maneira como vem executando suas atividades, a empresa Alfa não é viável econômica e financeiramente, uma vez que os índices financeiros apontaram que a empresa seria viável num cenário de crescimento de 10% ao ano, situação difícil de ocorrer no cenário econômico atual. Ao apresentar os resultados para o empresário o mesmo optou por vender o negócio. No presente estudo foram utilizados métodos determinísticos, os quais não consideram as incertezas do mercado e dos cenários futuros. Por isso, para pesquisas futuras, sugere-se o uso de métodos não determinísticos tal como os métodos de Monte Carlo e a Lógica Fuzzy

Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-10T16:32:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DENISE_DE_CUFFA.PDF: 2199976 bytes, checksum: 1a3e444a4ce89f9a5c3698998ce5977b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-12-01 / This research aimed at proposing a plan of knowledge management to increase competitiveness in an information technology company. It used as theoretical references researches on knowledge management, ways as occur the process of knowledge creation process and models that address existing knowledge management practices. In addition, it also dealt up the concept and context of competitiveness, and scenarios simulation methodology, specifically the proposed by Rojo (2005). It chose a qualitative methodology, since this study explored data through a case study to analyze the context of internal and external environments in which the researched company, Intelitech, is inserted, taking into account its direct competitors, which totaled two companies. A framework for data collection consisted of three steps involving researched company and its direct competitors. The first stage consisted of a questionnaire, to Intelitech manager and employees, being the same structured and composed of 38 knowledge management practices (KMP), since the objective was identify existing knowledge management practices in the company and therefore internal critical variables. This instrument had a points range in the purpose analyzing the frequency with which practices occurred in the company, their standardization and formalization level. The second phase of data collection consisted at the application Rojo scenarios simulation model, to identify the external critical variables. And by the end, the third stage corresponded to formulation of a proposal for improvement of knowledge management practices according simulated scenarios, based on internal and external critical variables identified in the previous steps. Thus, the research resulted in the elaboration of an action plan for two scenarios, favorable and unfavorable, from the most knowledge management practices punctuated. The first scenario showed a favorable situation for market expansion, in which company can use in hiring of new employees and expanding its physical infrastructure, enhancing IT tools and needing manager s flexibility with a new organizational culture. On the other hand, in an unfavorable scenario of restriction market, it suggested building customers loyalty through use of IT tools as interaction and communication practices with theirs. In this sense, it was possible conclude and confirm the hypothesis that competitiveness increase in IT company can occurs through knowledge management practices. / O presente trabalho teve como objetivo propor um plano de gestão do conhecimento para incremento de competitividade em uma empresa de tecnologia da informação. Utilizou-se como referencial teórico trabalhos sobre a gestão do conhecimento, os modos como ocorrem o processo de criação do conhecimento e os modelos que tratam das práticas de gestão do conhecimento existentes. Além disso, tratou-se também do conceito e contextualização de competitividade, e da metodologia de simulação de cenários, mais especificamente a proposta por Rojo (2005). Elegeu-se a metodologia qualitativa, uma vez que este trabalho explorou dados por meio de um estudo de caso para analisar o contexto dos ambientes interno e externo no qual a empresa pesquisada, Intelitech, está inserida, levando em consideração seus concorrentes diretos, que totalizaram 2 empresas. A estrutura para a coleta dos dados foi formada por 3 etapas envolvendo a empresa pesquisada e seus concorrentes diretos. A primeira etapa consistiu na aplicação de um questionário, ao gestor e funcionários da Intelitech, sendo o mesmo estruturado e composto por 38 práticas de gestão do conhecimento (PGC), uma vez que o objetivo foi levantar as práticas de gestão do conhecimento existentes na empresa e consequentemente as variáveis críticas internas. Tal instrumento possuía uma escala de pontos em que se buscou verificar a frequência com que as práticas ocorriam na empresa, seu nível de padronização e formalização. A segunda etapa da coleta de dados consistiu na aplicação do modelo de simulação de cenários Rojo (2005), visando identificar as variáveis críticas externas. E por final, a terceira etapa correspondeu à formulação de uma proposta de melhorias de práticas de gestão do conhecimento em função dos cenários simulados, baseando-se nas variáveis críticas internas e externas identificadas nas etapas anteriores. Desta forma, a pesquisa resultou na elaboração de um plano de ação para dois cenários, favorável e desfavorável, a partir das práticas de gestão do conhecimento mais pontuadas. O primeiro cenário demonstrou uma situação favorável de expansão de mercado, em que a empresa pode se utilizar da contratação de novos funcionários e ampliação de sua estrutura física, valorizando as ferramentas de TI e necessitando de uma flexibilidade do gestor para com uma nova cultura organizacional. Por outro lado, em um cenário desfavorável de restrição de mercado, sugeriu-se fidelizar os clientes por meio da utilização de ferramentas de TI como práticas de interação e comunicação com os mesmos. Neste sentido, foi possível concluir e confirmar a hipótese de que o incremento da competitividade da empresa de TI pode ocorrer por meio das práticas de gestão do conhecimento.

Despite climate change being an increasingly important focus of scientific and policy discourse and against a backdrop of rising greenhouse gas emissions, the Russian government has, thus far, failed to commit to an ambitious emission reduction target based on the latest science. For Russia to develop informed, internally consistent and scientifically literate policies, it is important to assess the scale of the challenge and explore implications of different levels of mitigation. To this end, the thesis derives Russia's cumulative emission budgets and generates associated low-carbon pathways in the context of both a re-developing economy and international climate change objectives (in particular, keeping the global mean temperature increase below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels). This thesis draws on several disciplines, bringing together bottom-up energy system modelling from engineering and physical sciences, as well as stakeholder and expert interviews from social sciences. The principal methodological approach used here is backcasting, with a number of stakeholder interviews providing a 'reality check' for the scenarios. Given the global delay in acting on climate change, the contextual 2°C scenarios generated are ambitious and extremely challenging. With significant changes on both demand and supply sides, an annual post-peak emission reduction rate of at least 10% is required to meet the cumulative budget constraint; this despite the dramatic fall in Russia's emissions in the 1990s. Such radical reduction rates are well in excess of anything achieved or, indeed, deemed possible within existing mitigation policies and integrated assessment models - either in Russia or in any other part of the world. The necessary emission reductions would involve significant material changes to the energy system. Even with early reductions, to attain a low-carbon energy system in 2050 in accordance with the 2°C cumulative emission constraint, all of the available 'mature' technological options would need to be employed. In particular, short-term mitigation can be facilitated by Russia's large energy efficiency potential and a significant biomass potential. In the long term, mitigation could draw on the country's considerable renewable energy resources. If the peak in Russia's emissions is delayed until 2020-2025, staying within a national 2°C budget constraint will require a rapid and widespread deployment of currently speculative negative-emission technologies. Whilst the suggested mitigation pathways with emissions peaking early are demanding, they are potentially less challenging and destabilising than failing to mitigate and subsequently adapting to climate change impacts of a 6-16°C temperature rise across Russia. The precautionary principle, together with the multiple uncertainties associated with negative emissions, would suggest that starting the decarbonisation process early is critical. Along with other big emitters, Russia has a pivotal role in influencing the future direction of international climate change mitigation and adaptation. Not only is Russia a major emitter of greenhouse gases and a global supplier of fossil fuels, but also it remains a major force in geopolitics, and its diverse territory is both vulnerable and resilient to the impacts of climate change. This unique confluence of circumstances leaves Russia with a challenging dilemma. The country can choose to acquiesce to short-term political and economic considerations, adopt weak mitigation measures and face potentially devastating impacts. Or it can apply its considerable attributes and powers to instigate an epoch of national and global action to secure a low-carbon and climate-resilient future. Whilst the former will see Russia subsumed into the international malaise on climate change, the latter may both quench the nation's "thirst for greatness" and fill the void of climate leadership.

Este trabalho de dissertação objetiva uma proposta metodológica para a análise da relação entre cenários futuros de disponibilidade hídrica superficial e demanda hídrica, levando-se em consideração a evolução dos fatores intervenientes à oferta hídrica superficial e à demanda hídrica, segundo a narrativa de cenários tendenciais de propagação dos padrões históricos de evolução destes fatores e a narrativa de cenários alternativos. Esta análise é feita através de um balanço hídrico entre disponibilidade hídrica e demanda hídrica. Esta proposta metodológica é aplicada sobre a região de abrangência da UGRHI do Tietê-Jacaré, e esta aplicação objetiva contribuir para a elaboração do plano da bacia da UGRHI em questão. Os fatores intervenientes à oferta hídrica superficial dizem respeito às variáveis meteorológicas, que influem diretamente no regime de precipitações, e aos padrões estatísticos históricos de evolução das precipitações. Os fatores intervenientes à demanda hídrica dizem respeito às variáveis sócio-econômicas e parâmetros tecnológicos de eficiência dos usos múltiplos dos recursos hídricos. Ambos os cenários, tendenciais e alternativos, narram a evolução destes fatores intervenientes à disponibilidade hídrica superficial e demanda hídrica nas dimensões climática e sócio-econômica. Na dimensão climática são propostos dois cenários de evolução dos fatores intervenientes à disponibilidade hídrica: o cenário climático tendencial (CCT) e o cenário climático alternativo. O cenário CCT é uma propagação futura dos padrões estatísticos históricos de evolução dos regimes de precipitações. Para este cenário são geradas séries sintéticas de precipitação, sobre a região ora em estudo, a partir da aplicação de um modelo estocástico linear. O cenário CCA leva em consideração os efeitos regionais das projeções de mudanças climáticas do cenário A1F (IPCC, 2000) para a região ora em estudo. Para este cenário são inferidos os efeitos da projeção de aumento da temperatura, sobre as séries geradas, através de relações empíricas regionais e conceituais de algumas variáveis meteorológicas que influem sobre o comportamento do regime de precipitações. Para a estimativa da disponibilidade hídrica superficial, segundo os dois cenários climáticos supracitados, foi usado o modelo HEC-HMS 2.1 (USACE) de modelagem e simulação de processos de chuva-vazão. Na dimensão sócio-econômica são propostos dois cenários de evolução dos fatores intervenientes à demanda hídrica: o cenário sócio-econômico tendencial (CSET) e o cenário sócio-econômico alternativo (CSEA). O cenário CSET é uma propagação futura dos padrões estatísticos históricos de evolução dos fatores sócio-econômicos e parâmetros tecnológicos intervenientes à demanda hídrica. O cenário CSEA leva em consideração os efeitos regionais das projeções de mudanças sócio-econômicas do cenário A1F (IPCC, 2000) para a região ora em estudo. Como ferramenta computacional para a estimativa de evolução dos fatores intervenientes à demanda hídrica foi desenvolvido, pelo autor dessa dissertação, o modelo MDSA ( Modelo de Demanda Setorial por Recursos Hídricos) baseado na metodologia do modelo NoWUM (Nordeste Water Use Model) (GAISER, T. et al., 2003). O resultado principal deste trabalho de dissertação foi obtido quando da comparação entre os cenários de disponibilidade hídrica superficial e demanda hídrica. Para todos os cenários comparativos foi constatada a evolução para uma situação crítica da relação entre disponibilidade hídrica superficial e demanda hídrica, principalmente nos períodos de estiagem de chuvas, ou períodos de recessão dos escoamentos superficiais. A ocorrência futura da situação crítica, ou escassez hídrica, varia de acordo com a maior ou menor pressão sobre os recursos hídricos, de acordo com os cenários sócio-econômicos, e de acordo com uma disponibilidade maior ou menor de chuvas sobre a região ora em estudo, de acordo com os cenários climáticos. Embora se possa esperar e seja evidente, de forma intuitiva, a ocorrência da escassez hídrica, a proposta, deste trabalho de dissertação, é a elaboração de uma metodologia, ou conjunto de métodos, para a estimativa quantitativa das variáveis de oferta e disponibilidade e demanda hídrica em todas as dimensões espacial e temporal. / This work aims a methodological proposal for the analysis of future scenarios of surface water availability and water demand, being taken into consideration the evolution of the intervening factors of surface water availability and water demand, according to the narrative of trend scenarios of propagation of the historical standards, and the narrative of alternative scenarios. This methodological proposal is applied on the region of the UGRHI of Tietê-Jacaré, and this objective application is to contribute for the elaboration of the watershed plan of the UGRHI. The intervening factors to superficial water availability concern to the meteorological variables that influence directly in the precipitation regimen and to the historical statistical standards of evolution of precipitations. The intervening factors to the water demand concern to the socioeconomic variables and technological parameters of efficiency of the multiple uses of the water resources. Both scenarios, trend and alternative, tell the evolution of these intervening factors into the superficial water availability and water demand in the climatic and socioeconomic dimensions. In the climatic dimension two scenarios of evolution of the intervening factors to the water availability are considered: the climatic tendency scenario (CCT) and the climatic alternative scenario (CCA). The scenario CCT is a future propagation of the historical statistical standards of evolution of regimes of precipitations. For this scenario synthetic precipitation series are generated, on the region in study, from the application of a linear stochastic model. The scenario CCA takes in consideration the regional effect of the projections of climatic changes of scenario A1F (IPCC, 2000) for the region in study. For this scenario the effect of the projection of increase of the temperature are inferred, on the generated series, through regional and conceptual empirical relations of some meteorological variables that influence on the behavior of the precipitation behavior. For the estimate of the superficial water availability, according to two above-mentioned climatic scenarios, the model HEC-HMS 2,1 (USACE) of modeling and simulation of hydrological processes was used. In the socioeconomic dimension two scenarios of evolution of the intervening factor to the water demand are considered: the tendency socioeconomic scenario (CSET) and alternative socioeconomic scenario (CSEA). Scenario CSET is a future propagation of the historical statistical standards of evolution of the socioeconomic factors and intervening technological parameters to the water demand. Scenario CSEA takes in consideration the regional affect of the projections of socioeconomic changes of scenario A1F (IPCC, 2000) for the region in study. As a computational tool for the estimate of the evolution of the intervening factors to the water demand it was developed the MDSA model (Model of Sectorial Demand for Water Resources) based in the methodology of the NoWUM model (Northeast Water Use Model) (GAISER, T. et al.). The main result of this work was gotten when of the comparison between the scenarios of superficial water availability and water demand. For all the comparative scenarios were evidenced the evolution for a critical situation of the relation between superficial water availability and water demand, mainly in the periods of no rains, or periods of contraction of the superficial drainings. The future occurrence of the critical situation, or water scarcity, varies in accordance to the greater or minor pressure on the water resources, in accordance with the socioeconomic scenarios, and in accordance with a bigger or lesser availability of rains on the region in study, in accordance with the climatic scenarios. Although if it can wait and either evident the occurrence of the water scarcity, the proposal, of this work, is the elaboration of a methodology, or set of methods, for the quantitative estimate of the variable of availability and water demand in all the space and temporal dimensions.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-09-14T13:28:04Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Iglenho Burtet Bernardes_.pdf: 5442476 bytes, checksum: 56f837d05d9c6cde56c40cd6183471e0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-14T13:28:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Iglenho Burtet Bernardes_.pdf: 5442476 bytes, checksum: 56f837d05d9c6cde56c40cd6183471e0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-29 / Nenhuma / O mercado da comunicação atualmente passa por um período de instabilidade e incerteza, onde os caminhos de continuidade ou de inovação nos negócios das mídias não estão bem claros. Novos processos e práticas digitais redefinem o contexto do rádio, demandando soluções projetuais diferentes das existentes historicamente. É nesse contexto que o presente trabalho foi desenvolvido, buscando avaliar como o design estratégico pode apoiar a projetação de cenários futuros para o rádio. Para alcançar este objetivo, foram realizadas diferentes formas de coleta de dados, destacando-se a busca de benchmarks locais, nacionais e internacionais, e entrevistas com especialistas do rádio. Além disso, o presente autor possui mais de 20 anos de experiência no mercado do rádio, a qual impactou na construção da presente dissertação. A pesquisa desenvolvida teve como resultado a identificação de cenários possíveis para o futuro do rádio, trazendo diferentes perspectivas de uso de tecnologia, do papel do ouvinte e do papel do comunicador. Os cenários projetados foram então utilizados como referência para o desenvolvimento de protótipos, como forma de experimentação e aprendizagem. Os quatro cenários desenvolvidos foram denominados: Rádio Robô, Rádio Expandido, Rádio Parceiro, Talk Radio. Dentre os resultados, cabe ainda destacar que os elementos projetuais foram aplicadas em um processo de planejamento especifico para a rádio Atlântida FM, desenvolvendo o conceito de multiplataforma. A presente pesquisa apresenta ainda propostas para a transformação dos ouvintes/usuários em possíveis e relevantes colaboradores culturais. / The communication market is currently undergoing a period of instability and uncertainty, where the continuity of paths or innovation in the media business are not very clear. New digital processes constantly redefine sectors, impacting the radio industry and demanding new solutions. It is in this context that this work was developed, trying to evaluate how the strategic design can support the design of the future scenarios for the radio. To achieve this objective, different forms of data collecting were used, giving emphasis on the search for benchmarks (local, national and international) and interviews with radio specialists. Moreover, the present author has more than 20 years of experience in the radio market, which impacted in the making of this dissertation. The developed research had as a result the identification of possible scenarios for the future of the radio, bringing different perspectives of technology, role of audience and role of communicator. The scenarios projected were then utilized as reference to the development of prototypes, as a form of experimenting and learning. The four established scenarios were denominated: Robot Radio, Expanded Radio, Partner Radio and Talk Radio. Among the results, it is important to point out that the design prototypes were applied in a process of specific planning for the radio station Atlântida FM, developing a concept of multiplatform. The present research presents proposals for a transformation of the audience in possible and relevant cultural collaborators.

[pt] A estabilização sazonal da oferta de energia tem sido um desafio ao planejamento da operação, e dada a complementaridade existente entre as fontes hidráulica e eólica, um plano de ação integrado poderia mitigar o risco natural envolvido no processo de geração de energia. A construção de cenários integrados de vento e vazão constituiria uma importante ferramenta para o planejamento das operações e cálculo do despacho ótimo, visto que, a energia eólica tem assumido importância crescente e está, cada vez mais, inserida no ambiente de comercialização de energias. No Brasil, onde a capacidade eólica instalada vem atingindo patamares significativos, predominantemente na região Nordeste, os cenários integrados seriam incorporados ao modelo Newave utilizado pelo ONS. Este trabalho se propõe a desenvolver modelos de estimação conjunta de vento e vazão através do algoritmo recursivo de mínimos quadrados ponderados, alimentado pelas séries de fator de capacidade eólico, vazão e energia natural afluente, as últimas provenientes do modelo Newave. Em seguida a geração de cenários integrados utiliza o método de simulação de Monte Carlo. Os resultados obtidos no processo de modelagem demonstraram bom desempenho, e as séries sintéticas simuladas preservaram as características das séries originais. / [en] The seasonal stability of supply energy has been a challenge for operation planning for the electric sector. Since the existence of the complementarity between wind and hydro sources, an integrated action plan could mitigate the natural risk involved in the electricity generation process. The integrated wind and streamflow scenarios would constitute an important tool for operation planning and also would provide means to calculate the optimal dispatch. Due wind power has assume increasing importance and it has been inserted in the energy trading environment more and more. In Brazil, the installed wind power capacity has reached significant levels, predominantly in the Northeast region, the integrated scenarios would be incorporated into the Newave model, which is used by the ONS. This work aims to develop models for joint estimation of wind and streamflow through the recursive algorithm of weighted least squares, fed by the series of wind capacity factor, streamflow and natural hydro power, the latest comes from Newave model. Next, the integrated scenarios generation uses Monte Carlo simulation method. The final results in the modeling process showed good performance, and simulated synthetic series preserved the characteristics of the original series.

[pt] A sustentabilidade é vista como macro tendência nos dias de hoje. Esta dissertação propõe o desenvolvimento de um método de cenários futuros adequado ao design com foco na sustentabilidade. Visa promover uma visão critica do contexto atual e futuro do projeto motivando o desenvolvimento inovador dentro do paradigma sustentável. Acredita-se que através da técnica de cenários futuros é possível compreender de maneira estratégica, ambientes propícios à sustentabilidade incremental ou radical. A partir desses cenários é possível que as empresas construam uma visão de curto e longo prazo e adequem-se antecipadamente a novas condições do seu ambiente de atuação. Para atingir os objetivos buscaram-se referências sobre estudos do futuro, com foco na prospecção de cenários, sustentabilidade e a sustentabilidade na moda. Também foi aplicado o método proposto em uma grande rede de varejo de moda brasileira. Para estar adequada ao processo de design, a aplicação teve duração de um dia de trabalho no formato de workshop reunindo uma equipe multidisciplinar. Foi possível prospectar cenários e construir narrativas que irão auxiliar no desenvolvimento de estratégias para a criação de produtos e serviços inovadores e sustentáveis no segmento de moda. Fundamentalmente, a prospecção de cenários funcionou como um processo de entendimento sobre a situação atual e futura da empresa em relação à sustentabilidade. / [en] Nowadays sustainability is seen as a macro trend. This study proposes the development of a method suitable for design future scenarios with a focus on sustainability. It aims to promote a critical view of the current and future context of the project promoting the development of innovative sustainable paradigm. It is believed that through the technique of future scenarios is possible to understand strategically, environments likely to incremental or radical sustainability. From these scenarios it is possible for companies to build a vision of short and long term and to suit the new conditions of their work environment. To achieve the objectives of this study, a searching of references by future studies was demanded, with a focus on a creation of scenarios, sustainable and self sustainable fashion. Also the method was applied in a large brazilian retail fashion store. To be suitable for the design process, the application lasted one working day in the form of a workshop bringing together a multidisciplinary team. It was possible to construct narratives and exploring scenarios that will assist in developing strategies for creating products and innovation services and sustainable in the fashion segment. Fundamentally, the creation of scenarios worked as a process of understanding the current situation and future of the company in relation to sustainability.

This study evaluated the impacts of shallow and deep open drains on groundwater levels and drain performance under varying climate scenarios and irrigation application rates. The MIKE SHE model used for this study is an advanced and fully spatially distributed hydrological model. Three drain depths, climates and irrigation application rates were considered. The drains depths included 0, 1 and 2 m deep drains. The annual rainfall and meteorological data were collected from study area from 1976 to 2004 and analysed to identify the typical wet, average and dry years within the record. Similarly three irrigation application rates included 0, 10 and 16 ML/ha-annum. All together twenty seven scenarios (3 drains depths, 3 climates and 3 irrigation application rates) were simulated. The observed soil physical and hydrological data were used to calibrate and validate the model. Mean square error (R[superscript]2) of the simulated and observed water table data varied from 0.7 to 0.87. Once validated the MIKE SHE model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of 1 and 2 metre deep drains. The simulated water table depth, unsaturated zone deficit, exchange between unsaturated and saturated zones, drain outflow and overland flow were used to analyse their performance. The modeling results showed that the waterlogging was extensive and prolonged during winter months under the no drainage and no irrigation scenario. In the wet climate scenario, the duration of water logging was longer than in the average climate scenario during the winter months. In the dry climate scenario no waterlogging occurred during the high rainfall period. The water table reached soil surface during the winter season in the case of wet and average climate. For the dry climate, the water table was about 0.9 metres below soil surface during winter. / One and 2 metre deep drains lowered the water table up to 0.9 and 1.8 metres in winter for the wet climate when there was no irrigation application. One metre deep drains proved effective in controlling water table during wet and average climate without application of irrigation water. One metre deep drains were more effective in controlling waterlogging a in wet, average and dry years when the irrigation application rate was 10 ML/ha-annum. With 16 ML/ha-annum irrigation application, 1 metre deep drains did not perform as efficiently as 2 metre deep drains in controlling the water table and waterlogging. In the dry climate scenario, without irrigation application, 1 metre deep drains were not required as there was not enough flux from rainfall and irrigation to raise the water table and create waterlogging risks. Two metre deep drains lowered the water table to greater depths in the wet, average and dry climate scenarios respectively when no irrigation was applied. They managed water table better in wet and average climate with 10 and 16 ML/ha-annum irrigation application rate. Again in the dry climate, without irrigation application 2 metre deep drains were not required as there was a minimal risk of waterlogging. The recharge to the groundwater table in the no drainage case was far greater than for the 1 and 2 metre deep drainage scenarios. The recharge was higher in case of 1 metre deep drains than 2 metre deep drains in wet and average climate during winter season. / There was no recharge to ground water with 1 and 2 metre deep drains under the dry climate scenarios and summer season without irrigation application as there was not enough water to move from the ground surface to the unsaturated and saturated zones. When 10 ML/ha-annum irrigation rate was applied during wet, average and dry climate respectively, 1 metre deep drains proved enough drainage to manage the recharge into the groundwater table with a dry climate. For the wet and average climate scenarios, given a 10 ML/ha-annum irrigation application rate, 2 metre deep drains managed recharge better than 1 metre deep drains. Two metres deep drains with a 10 ML/ha-annum irrigation application rate led to excessive drainage of water from the saturated zone in the dry climate scenario. Two metres deep drains managed recharge better with a 16 ML/ha-annum irrigation application rate in the wet and average climate scenarios than the 1 metre deep drains. Two metres deep drains again led to excessive drainage of water from the saturated zone in dry climate. In brief, 1 metre deep drains performed efficiently in the wet and average climate scenarios with and without a 10 ML/ha-annum irrigation application rate. One metre deep drains are not required for the dry climate scenario. Two metre deep drains performed efficiently in the wet and average climate scenarios with 16 ML/ha-annum irrigation application rate. Two metre deep drains are not required for the dry climate scenario.

Climate change, land use change and invasive species are transforming global biodiversity at multiple scales. Projections are for threats to biodiversity from these global changes to continue into the future, with varied and discernible distribution changes for many species. Concomitantly, these global changes will interact with each other to further exacerbate the problem, as exemplified in this study. In New Zealand, climate change is expected to affect landscapes, fragmented and disturbed by land use change, further increasing the potential invasibility of these landscapes for a suite of existing and emerging invasive species. This thesis is concerned with the combined effects of climate and land use changes on the spatial distribution of the sub-tropical invasive plant, Tradescantia fluminensis (Vell.). The contribution of this thesis is to undertake an integrated assessment of the distribution change for this species in New Zealand. On the basis that climatic variables affect species distribution at larger scales, while land use, habitat, disturbance and dispersal mechanisms affect distribution at smaller scales, two separate analyses were undertaken. At the national scale BioCLIM and the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) were implemented using the variables: minimum temperature (July-August), MTminJ-A, and annual water deficit (November-February). At the landscape scale, only ENFA was implemented, using the variables: MTminJ-A, ECOSAT riparian classes (habitat) and proximity to roads, urban areas and streams (disturbance and dispersal sources). Three scenarios of climate change (CCSR B1-Low, CSIRO9 A1B-Mid and HadCM A1FI-High) and two scenarios of land use change (SmartGrowth and Buildout) were developed to the year 2050, using the CLIMPACTS Open Framework Modelling System and Geographic Information Systems, GIS, techniques respectively. The baseline species distribution model was extrapolated in ENFA, using the 2050 scenarios. Changes to potential threat from this species to protected areas at the landscape level were assessed spatially at the landscape level. This approach and its results are novel for this species. At the national scale the results for the modelling show that climate change will increase the potential habitat suitability of Tradescantia under all combined scenarios of CCSR, CSIRO9 and HadCM for mean minimum temperature (July-August), MTminJ-A and Annual Water Deficit, AWD. At the case study landscape, in the Western Bay of Plenty and Tauranga also the modelling results showed that climate change and land use changes will increase the suitability for Tradescantia by 2050. The 'core' or highest suitability areas increase under all future scenarios. At the national level core suitability increased by about 13% for the CCSR:B1-Low and CSIRO9:A1B-Mid and 22% for HadCM:A1FI-High combined scenario on the North Island. On the South Island, core areas increased by a much lower margin - 1.4%, 2.3% and 2.9% for CCSR:B1-Low, CSIRO9:A1B-Mid and HadCM:A1FI-High combined scenarios respectively. At the landscape level core areas increased by 5%, 8% and 21% for the CCSR:B1-Low+SmartGrowth, Darlam:A1b-Mid+SmartGrwoth and HadCM:A1FI-High+Build-out combined scenarios, respectively. This is true also for the Protected areas within the case study landscape, and indicate that the increasing if Tradescantia is able to track both climate and land use change through its dispersal and migration within the landscape 9 primarily in the inland and upland direction), then is will pose a greater risk to native habitats than at present. Integrated assessments and the outputs they produce are essential to exploring anticipated changes (through scenario-building) and in understanding the change spatial context and magnitude of projected changes from the combined effects of climate and land use changes into the future and need to be integrated into biodiversity-biosecurity management at multiple scales.

<p>The aim of this master thesis is to investigate how a procuring organization can use personas and scenarios to gather user-requirements in the procurement of software. To reach this understanding a case study is carried out to answer the questions of research; which is a definition that suits IKEA Components, which tools and how to use them; and what are the obstacles and enablers for working with personas and scenarios in procurement of software. The thesis consists of a theoretical study in the usability area followed by an empirical investigation with semi-structured interviews and observations. The study resulted in 4 personas and 8 connected scenarios that are based on user requirements. The first finding due to the question of research includes a usability definition applied to a real context. The second reveals examples of how personas and scenarios can make the development team understand the user requirements and thus contribute to procurement. The last finding is that the main obstacles and enablers for IKEA Components is the complexity of the main system, lack of resources and the management support.</p>