The Bayesian approach to logistic regression modelling for credit scoring is useful when there are data quantity issues. Data quantity issues might occur when a bank is opening in a new location or there is change in the scoring procedure. Making use of prior information (available from the coefficients estimated on other data sets, or expert knowledge about the coefficients) a Bayesian approach is proposed to improve the credit scoring models. To achieve this, a data set is split into two sets, “old” data and “new” data. Priors are obtained from a model fitted on the “old” data. This model is assumed to be a scoring model used by a financial institution in the current location. The financial institution is then assumed to expand into a new economic location where there is limited data. The priors from the model on the “old” data are then combined in a Bayesian model with the “new” data to obtain a model which represents all the available information. The predictive performance of this Bayesian model is compared to a model which does not make use of any prior information. It is found that the use of relevant prior information improves the predictive performance when the size of the “new” data is small. As the size of the “new” data increases, the importance of including prior information decreases

Background: Since the initiation of assisted reproduction techniques, several studies has been performed to improve treatment results by development of culture conditions like embryo oil and culture media used. In this study, two embryonic oils from different companies, Nidoil and Ovoil were examined.Method: In this study, 47 human embryos were used. All embryos were donated for research purposes by couples who had been treated at the clinic in Uppsala University Hospital. The embryos were divided into two groups, one group was cultured with Ovoil and the other with Nidoil.Results: There was no difference between the two oils, the embryo quality was the same in both groups.CONCLUSION: The result was expected because both oils had the same composition and purity.

This thesis deals with ranked advanced voting systems. The aim is to determine the overall winner and the ranking of candidates based on voters' preferences. The thesis utilises basic voting systems - plurality rules, lexicographical and Borda's method - as well as advanced voting systems with the application of DEA models, specifically DEA/AR model, DEA/AR exclusion model (including variations with penalties), and Llamazares-Peňa model. Compromise programming is used to obtain common vector of weights. The models and their use are demonstrated on Formula One Grand Prix results from season 2016. Formula One World Drivers' Championship and Formula One World Constructors' Championship are being investigated.

Diploma thesis deals with fighting insurance fraud from the very beginning to the end, seen from insurance company's perspective. It also tries to see insurance frauds and dealing with them not only from IT point of view, but also accompany other department's views and needs. It's starting with organizational overview and its readiness to fight fraud and trying to show, how to improve. Furthermore it introduces reader with basic terms and phrases of insurance fraud and continues with general description of this encounter. It continues with indicators of insurance fraud and its examples and strategies, how to find them in data. Next part of my thesis is focusing on available external sources and possible insurance companies' cooperation, for maximized ability to detect suspicious cases. This is continued by selection of proper system, requirements definition and its goals. Last part shows one of FMS solutions and its description, from requirements up to complete solutions architecture and screenshots of given system.

The topic of this master dissertation is data mining of customer data for marketing purposes within an enterprise. The information resulting from this process is then used to create targeted marketing campaigns. Nowadays, identifying and exploiting customer's needs is vital for any enterprise. With that in mind, the theoretical part of this dissertation is focused primarily on different methods of data analysis such as segmentation, profiling, customer scoring and determining customer value. A significant segment of this part focuses on web analysis, which studies customer's web browsing behaviour. The practical part of this dissertation is based on a case study of a specific e-shop. The case study identifies and solves problems of emailing realization. Solving these problems using Silverpop Engage brings new opportunities for emailing. The main goal of this dissertation is to show new opportunities of utilizing behavioural data for e-mailing campaigns execution.

A healthy civil society depends on citizens who have mature critical thinking skills and a willingness to entertain opposing points of view. The development of critical thinking in young adults has long been studied, but there has been little agreement on what the attributes of critical thinking are and how to reliably assess them. While many studies have attempted to assess the critical thinking abilities of college students, none have yet measured critical thinking through using the Critical Thinking Analytic Rubric (CTAR) to assess first-year college students' writing. This study used a modified version of the CTAR rubric to investigate students' critical thinking in writing completed for an American Heritage course. Four hypotheses were tested: (1) that raters would use the rubric with high inter-rater reliability estimates; (2) that there would be a significant relationship between the scores from the earlier holistic rubric used in the 2015 Hansen et al. study and the scores from the analytic rubric used in this study; (3) that there would be a significant relationship between analytic scores and ACT and GPA scores; (4) that there would be a significant relationship between essay score and gender. Findings included the following: (1) The inter-rater reliability for the overall scores of the papers was 0.898, which exceeds the 0.70 acceptable level. However, the inter-rater reliability for sub-scores was negative and required further investigation. (2) There was no significant relationship between the scores of the Hansen et al. study and this study. (3) There was no significant relationship between essay scores and ACT and GPA scores. (4) There was a significant relationship between essay scores and gender, with female students scoring higher than male students.

<p>The present dissertation investigated the impact of scales / scoring methods and prompt linguistic features on the meausrement quality of L2 English elicited imitation (EI). Scales / scoring methods are an important feature for the validity and reliabilty of L2 EI test, but less is known (Yan et al., 2016). Prompt linguistic features are also known to influence EI test quaity, particularly item difficulty, but item discrimination or corpus-based, fine-grained meausres have rarely been incorporated into examining the contribution of prompt linguistic features. The current study addressed the research needs, using item response theory (IRT) and random forest modeling.</p><p>Data consisted of 9,348 oral responses to forty-eight items, including EI prompts, item scores, and rater comments, which were collected from 779 examinees of an L2 English EI test at Purdue Universtiy. First, the study explored the current and alternative EI scales / scoring methods that measure grammatical / semantic accuracy, focusing on optimal IRT-based measurement qualities (RQ1 through RQ4 in Phase Ⅰ). Next, the project identified important prompt linguistic features that predict EI item difficulty and discrimination across different scales / scoring methods and proficiency, using multi-level modeling and random forest regression (RQ5 and RQ6 in Phase Ⅱ).</p><p>The main findings were (although not limited to): 1) collapsing exact repetition and paraphrase categories led to more optimal measurement (i.e., adequacy of item parameter values, category functioning, and model / item / person fit) (RQ1); there were fewer misfitting persons with lower proficiency and higher frequency of unexpected responses in the extreme categories (RQ2); the inconsistency of qualitatively distinguishing semantic errors and the wide range of grammatical accuracy in the minor error category contributed to misfit (RQ3); a quantity-based, 4-category ordinal scale outperformed quality-based or binary scales (RQ4); sentence length significantly explained item difficulty only, with small variance explained (RQ5); Corpus-based lexical measures and phrase-level syntactic complexity were important to predicting item difficulty, particularly for the higher ability level. The findings made implications for EI scale / item development in human and automatic scoring settings and L2 English proficiency development.</p>

This thesis deals with suitable selection of suppliers and evaluates possible risk for Rybníkářství Pohořelice, a. s. company in this matter. The thesis submits sophisticated scoring pattern of possible supplier by using Fuzzy logic. The pattern is made in MS Excel and Fuzzy Logic Toolbox (MATLAB). This evaluation method should effectively resolve the suppliers scoring currently cooperating with the company and should be also available at affordable costs.

Genetic and home chaos influences in early childhood have been independently associated with externalizing problems, characterized by inattentive, hyperactive, and aggressive behaviors. However, the Behavioral Genetics approach indicates that genetic and environmental influences, although independently effective, interact to produce behavior throughout development. Thus, this thesis uses two samples, the Early Growth and Development study (EGDS), n= 564, and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), n= 8,952, and two genetically-sensitive approaches, a parent-child adoption approach and a polygenic scoring approach, to examine how genetic influences and home chaos interact in early childhood (age 3-4) to predict externalizing problems later in childhood (age 7). Results indicate that, although home chaos is correlated with later externalizing problems, the effect is reduced in the context of earlier externalizing, possibly suggesting that home chaos is most salient for concurrent, not later, externalizing problems. In addition, genetic influences were not predictive of externalizing problems in either study, nor was the interaction of home chaos and genetic influences. This pattern of results suggests that, although home chaos may be an important factor for concurrent externalizing problems, other factors, e.g., parenting style and prenatal risk, may be more salient than home chaos, especially in interaction with genetic effects. Further, failure to find genetic influence in this thesis suggest that accounting for the broad scope of genetic influences on complex traits like externalizing and the specific genetic risk for individual externalizing phenotypes is important in attempts to find genetic influence and interaction.

L’apport principal de cette thèse réside dans l’évaluation de la vulnérabilité d’un certain nombre de règles de voteà la violation de deux propriétés ; nous nous appuyons pour cela sur l’approche axiomatique de la théorie du choixsocial, qui permet d’étudier le comportement d’un mécanisme de choix social vis-à-vis d’un jugement de valeurémis par l’économiste. La symétrie inverse ("reversal symmetry") est la première propriété examinée. A la suite destravaux de Saari [150], nous évaluons deux catégories de règles de vote en prenant cette propriété comme critèrede décision : d’une part, les règles positionnelles simples et d’autre part les règles positionnelles à deux tours. Plusprécisément, nous calculons la probabilité d’occurrence de ce phénomène à la fois en domaine universel (c’est-à-direlorsque les individus peuvent exprimer n’importe quel ordre de préférence), et en domaine restreint (lorsque deshypothèses supplémentaires sont introduites sur la manière dont les votants classent les « candidats » à l’élection).Nous examinons le cas de trois candidats, de quatre candidats ainsi que le contexte d’élections à un très grandnombre de votants, en faisant tendre ce nombre vers l’infini.La seconde thématique est consacrée à l’examen du comportement de la règle de Dodgson face à la propriété d’homogénéité.Nous proposons une méthode de calcul simple et systématique du score de Dodgson. Nous distinguonsensuite différentes classes de profils pour lesquels cette règle est susceptible d’être vulnérable à cette propriété. Afinde compléter notre recherche, des fréquences de violation de cette propriété par la règle de Dodgson sont fournies. / The contribution of this thesis lies in the evaluation of the vulnerability of a number of voting rules to the violationof two properties of the theory of social choice. We rely on the axiomatic approach of social choice theory to examinethe behavior of a social choice procedure according to a value judgment (or axiom) emitted by the economist.Reversal symmetry is the first property studied. Following the works of Saari [150], we evaluate two families ofvoting by using this property as the decision criterion : the simple scoring rules on the one hand, and the scoringrules with runoff on the other hand. We do probability calculations to evaluate how frequent this phenomenon is,in the three-candidate case under universal domain as well as under a restricted domain, and we also tackle thefour-candidate case and the infinite number of voters case.The second topic is devoted to the study of the Dodgsonrule according to the homogeneity axiom. We introduce a simple and systematic method for the computation ofthe Dodgson score. We distinguish various classes of profiles at which that rule may be vulnerable to this property.Further, frequencies of violation of this property by the Dodgson rule are provided.