The association of exchange rates with stock returns and performance in major trading markets is widely accepted. The world’s economy has seen unprecedented growth of interdependent; as such the magnitude of the effect of exchange rates on returns will be even stronger. Since the author perceives the importance of exchange rates on stock returns, the author found it interesting to study the effect of exchange rates on some stocks traded on the Stock exchange. There has been a renewed interest to investigate the relationship between returns and exchange rates as such; the author has chosen to investigate the present study to focus in the United Kingdom with data from the London Stock exchange .The author carried out his research on 18 companies traded on the London Stock Exchange in the process, using linear regression analysis. Taking into account the fact that the magnitude of exchange rate movements on stock returns is governed by a series of factors, the author did set up a selection criteria which spread across a series of industries ranging from financial services, manufacturing, aviation, mining, tobacco, fashion and food processing. All selected companies are of the FTSE 100 companies. The author produced results that to some degree are consistent with predictions in the theoretical framework. The author find significant exposure of stock returns to changes in exchange rates for some companies in the sample of FTSE 100 firms used in the study. The author equally finds out that particular currencies may be of more risk to certain companies than to others by introducing euro values in to his regression equation. This gives the compelling evidence that these companies rely heavily on external sales and revenue. The author, further employed lagged values of exchange rates in to his regression and found significant evidence of the possibility of mispricing for certain stocks and the impact of the previous days trading figures on present stock prices. The author believes that the weak responds in certain cases was as a result of hedging strategies put in place by these companies and risk management strategies which tend to minimise the effect of exchange rates movements.

With the progress of the times, the international financial market link is becoming more and more closely, while the probability of extreme events more and more high, if there are some indicators can be used as a prediction of the crash, as whether to sell the stocks, it can be very useful. The study process for the use of the Fama-French five-factor model, as well as the VaR model, with the cluster analysis method, and clustering for Taiwan 50 constituent stocks in accordance with the five-factor characteristics of the individual stocks, the similar nature of stock into the same group, the establishment of portfolio, the use of portfolio daily returns to calculate the the VaR, and observe the VaR spread before the crash, how the trend, and whether certain characteristics. Comparison of the cluster group for the predictive ability of the collapse events, as well as the relationship between risk factors and predictive ability. The results of VaR spread movements are often subject to fluctuations significantly change the situation before the crash occurs. By intense will be stable or from stable will be severe. Good predictive ability of the cluster, often its constituent stocks and the collapse of the reasons more closely the relationship. Financial stocks sensitive to the financial tsunami; Electronic stocks are subject to exchange rate affect.Overall, the group with the best predictive ability is more sensitive to momentum effects and investor sentiment indicators ,but non-sensitive to book-to-market factor.To use the Var spread as a predictor of reference,choosing to meet the aforementioned conditions of stocks to the portfolio is a nice way.

Due to the financial turmoil in recent years, risk management has become an important issue, investors would like to be fully-prepared to cope with financial crisis before it happen. This research uses the Fama and French three-factor and the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) as an exchange rate variations indicator to capture the international relations. It constitutes a four-factor model to analyze the S&P100 stock returns changes, and we introduce the skewed-t distribution to simulate the distribution of stock returns and capture the characteristics of skewness and kurtosis. We use cluster analysis to cluster the sample companies by their risk characteristics. And then we observe the explanatory power of each risk factor. The study shows that the S&P100 stocks are subjected to the market premium, and the scale effect is smaller than others. ¡@¡@ At last, in accordance with the GARCH-Skewed-t model to simulate the average, variance, skewness and kurtosis of each cluster. We track the long-term performance of each parameter which are used to observe the unusual changes before financial crisis. The empirical results show that the skewness parameter has perfect warning for financial turmoil. The cluster with warning ability is affected by B/M ratio effect and exchange rate changes. Among the case, the cluster has the best early warning effect when it's influenced by the exchange rate indicator. It displays that by adding an exchange rate risk indicator into the multi-factor model, we will have a better clustering result. It means that the skewness parameter of cluster with influence of exchange rate indicator can be used to observe financial turmoil, which can in turns, be used as an early warning system to determine the occurrence of extreme events.

Existing papers have shown that innovation and consumer satisfaction influence the firm performance and stock returns; however, the related papers usually neglect the impacts of market status. This paper extends prior papers by considering the impacts of market status when exploring the relationship among innovation, consumer satisfaction, and firm performance. Empirical results show that in the bull markets innovation and consumer satisfaction do not significantly affect stock returns while in the bear markets stock returns are positively associated with the level of innovation and consumer satisfaction. These results suggest that managers should take market status into consideration when making marketing decisions.

No description available.

Σκοπός της εργασίας είναι να εξακριβώσει αν το φαινόμενο των μικρών εταιριών εμφανίζεται και εξηγείται από τις αποδόσεις σε χαρτοφυλάκια ελληνικών μετοχών, εταιριών εισηγμένων στο Χρηματιστήριο Αξιών Αθηνών (Χ.Α.Α.) την περίοδο 2005-2010. Δηλαδή να δούμε αν και σε ποιο βαθμό το μέγεθος της κεφαλαιοποίησης των επιχειρήσεων επηρεάζει τη διαμόρφωση των αποδόσεων των μετοχών τους. / The purpose of this study is to determine whether the phenomenon of small firms appears and explained by Greek yields portfolios of shares of companies listed on the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) over the period 2005-2010. That is to see if and to what extent the size of the market capitalization of the company influence the formation of their stock returns.

[pt] EVA é uma medida que avalia o desempenho das empresas em termos de geração de valor para os acionistas. Trata-se de uma metodologia bastante utilizada no mercado norte-americano e que vem ganhando espaço no mercado brasileiro. A relação do EVA com o valor de mercado e o desempenho das ações das empresas tem sido objeto de estudos nos últimos anos, tanto nos EUA quanto no Brasil, algumas vezes gerando resultados controversos. Neste contexto, esta pesquisa tem como principal objetivo testar, através de modelos de regressão linear, a relação entre o EVA e o desempenho das ações no mercado acionário brasileiro no período de 1995 a 2004. A amostra contempla todas as empresas que compõem o IBrX (índice das 100 ações mais negociadas da Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo) que possuam histórico mínimo de cinco anos de negociações, exceto as instituições financeiras. O resultado observado foi que de fato existe correlação entre o EVA e o desempenho das ações no mercado brasileiro, porém esta correlação é estatisticamente baixa, apesar de ter se mostrado crescente ao longo dos anos. / [en] EVA is a measure which assesses companies´ performance in terms of value generation to the shareholders. It is a methodology fairly used in the North- American market and which has been gaining space in the Brazilian market. The relation of the EVA with the market value and the companies´ performance has been the subject of many studies in the last years, both in the North-American and Brazilian markets, sometimes generating controversial results. Within this context, this research has as its main objective to test, through linear regression models, the relation between the EVA and the companies´ performance in the Brazilian Market during the period of 1995 to 2004. The sample contemplates all companies which compound the IBR-X (Index with the one hundred most traded stocks in the Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo) and that have a minimum record of five years of traded stocks, with the exception of financial institutions. The result observed was that in fact there is a correlation between the EVA and the companies´ performance in the Brazilian market, however, this correlation is statistically low, despite of its growing tendency shown in the tests throughout the years.

Abstract This thesis investigates whether stock returns can help forecast macroeconomic activity. Future earnings and dividends and current stock prices should contain information about the future state of firms and the consumption possibilities of consumers. These activities are linked to aggregate economic development and, hence, the stock markets should improve economic forecasting. We review the theoretical points that justify the importance of stock markets in economic forecasting. Recent literature on the stochastic discount factor in asset pricing and the real business cycle models has approached this connection. We try to show that the direction between financial markets and macroeconomy could be from stock markets to real economy. We empirically test the forecasting ability of stock markets with respect to macroeconomy. The unexpected part of stock return can be revealed with economic tracking portfolios (ETP), which are constructed so that the unexpected portion of the portfolio return has the maximum correlation with revisions to expectations of the target variable. ETP's track how investors revise their expectations about relevant macroeconomic variables. The results show that specific stock portfolios track future changes in macroeconomic variables well. In the previous literature, stock returns have been connected to the business cycle. This connection is analysed by explaining stock returns with total factor productivity (TFP) as a factor. TFP is measured by corporate innovation variable, i.e. the change in a firm's gross profit margin unexplained by changes in firm's capital and labour. The TFP variable performs quite nicely in explaining stock returns and it can be related to stock market momentum. Next, the aim is to investigate the forecasting power of stock returns together with the TFP factor. Even though in our results the TFP contains no information relevant for economic forecasting, the stock returns continue to perform well.

AN ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS OFSamridha Jung Rana, for the Master of Science degree in Economics, presented on November 10, 2022, at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.TITLE: MACROECONOMICS AND ANAMOLIES AS DETERMINANTS OF STOCK RETURNSMAJOR PROFESSOR: Dr. Scott GilbertAbstract: There is no general support to explain the strong correlation between the macroeconomic variables and the Standard & Poor 500 index fund returns. This thesis sheds some light on how the macroeconomic variables have impacted the monthly returns on the Standard & Poor 500 over the last decade. Firstly, we introduce the Standard & Poor 500 index and various macroeconomic factors influencing the U.S. economy over the years. Subsequently, investigating the casualty relationship between the monthly rate of returns, the consumer-producer index, the industrial producer index, Money Supply, Unemployment, inflation rate, and the exchange rate. The methodology used in this study includes a stepwise multiple regression model, Johansen cointegration test, Dickey-fuller augmented test, Phillip perron test, and the Granger Causality test. Furthermore, investigating stock market anomalies that have been verified immensely, such as the day-of-the-week Effect and month-of-the-year Effect, has also been explored to see whether those anomalies still exist in recent times.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research report examines stock market reactions to sudden changes in investor mood. The motivation for the study is the large volume of psychology and finance research showing that investor mood is affected by various non-economic or economically-neutral phenomena. Previous research has provided strong evidence of a link between the outcome of international sporting results, particularly soccer, and investor mood. This report examines the impact of South Africa's national soccer, rugby and cricket teams' performances in international matches on returns on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Match results constitute a mood proxy variable hypothesised to affect stock returns through its influence on investor mood. The unconditional mean return on the JSE All Share index for a 13 ½ year period from September 1995 to February 2009 was compared to the mean return after wins, draws and losses by the national sport teams. An event study approach was followed and four different statistical tests were conducted in order to test for a relationship. The results of the tests indicate the existence of a moderate win effect, with mean returns after wins being statistically significantly higher for all sports combined, cricket and soccer. The report concludes that there is some evidence of a relationship between sporting success and stock returns. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsingsverslag ondersoek die reaksie van die aandelebeurs op skielike veranderings in beleggersentiment. Die motivering vir die studie is die aansienlike volume sielkundige en finansiële navorsing wat toon dat beleggersentiment beïnvloed word deur verskeie nie-ekonomiese of ekonomies-neutrale verskynsels. Vorige navorsing het sterk getuienis verskaf van 'n verband tussen die uitkoms van internasionale sportresultate, veral sokker, en beleggersentiment. Hierdie verslag ondersoek die impak van Suid Afrika se nasionale sokker-, rugby- en krieketspanne se prestasies in internasionale wedstryde op opbrengste op die Johannesburg Effektebeurs (JEB). Wedstryduitslae verteenwoordig 'n sentimentsveranderlike met die hipotese dat dit aandeeloprengste sal beïnvloed deur die uitslae se invloed op beleggersentiment. Die onvoorwaardelike gemiddelde oprengs op die JEB All Aandele-index vir 'n 13 ½ jaar periode van September 1995 to Februarie 2009 is vergelyk met die gemiddelde oprengs na oorwinings, nederlae en gelykopuitslae van die drie nasionale spanne. 'n Gebeurtenisstudie-benadering is gevolg en vier verskillende statistiese toetse is uitgevoer om te toets vir 'n verband. Die resultate van die toetse dui op die bestaan van 'n matige oorwiningseffek met gemiddelde oprengste na oorwinnings wat statisties wesenlik hoër is vir alle sportsoorte gekombineerd, krieket en sokker. Die verslag kom tot die gevolgtrekking dat daar wel getuienis is van 'n verband tussen sportsuksesse en aandeeloprengste.