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Housing Prices in Jingjinji, Huninghang and Pearl River DeltaGu, Jinlin 01 January 2017 (has links)
This paper researches the relationships between sub-center cities, satellite cities and core cities in Jingjinji Area, Huninghang Area and Pearl River Delta. It also covers the connections between Chinese housing market and stock market. It uses an unique dataset called China Real Estate Index System (CREIS) to measure the Chinese housing prices. Through correlations, Granger causality tests and regression models, this paper concludes there are indeed connections for the movements in housing prices in the surrounding cities relative to Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen in the three city groups, and there is no sufficient evidence to show the existence of the connection between Chinese housing market and stock market.
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Predictability of International Stock Returns with Sum of the Parts and Equity Premiums under Regime ShiftsAthari, Mahtab 18 December 2015 (has links)
This research consists of two essays. The first essay entitled” Stock Return Forecasting with Sum-of-the-Parts Methodology: Evidence from Around the World”, examines forecasting ability of stock returns by employing the sum-of-the-parts (SOP) modeling technique introduced by Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011).This approach decomposes return into three components of growth in price-earnings ratio, earnings growth, and dividend-price ratio. Each component is forecasted separately and fitted values are used in forecast model to predict stock return. We conduct a series of one-step ahead recursive forecasts for a wide range of developed and emerging markets over the period February 1995 through November 2014. Decomposed return components are forecasted separately using a list of financial variables and the fitted values from the best estimators are used according to out-of-sample performance. Our findings show that the SOP method with financial variables outperforms the historical sample mean for the majority of countries.
Second essay entitled,” Equity Premium Predictability under Regime Shifts: International Evidence”, utilizes the modified version of the dividend-price ratio that alleviates some econometric concerns in the literature regarding the non-stationary and persistent predictor when forecasting international equity premium across different regimes. We employ Markov switching technique to address the issue of non-linearity between the equity premium and the predictor. The results show different patterns of equity premium predictability over the regimes across countries by the modified ratio as predictor. In addition, transition probability analysis show the adverse effect of financial crisis on regime transition probabilities by increasing the probability of switching between regimes post-crisis 2007 implying higher risk perceived by investors as a result of uncertainty inherent in regime transitions.
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The Value of Dividends : The effect of dividend exposure on stock returnsBörjesson, Erik, Lindström, Harald January 2019 (has links)
This paper aims to examine if firms listed on Nasdaq Stockholm with dividend exposure yield higher risk-adjusted returns than firms without dividend exposure. Using a data set consisting of observations between 2000-2017 we test the difference in mean risk-adjusted return, measured by the Sharpe ratio, between securities with different levels of dividend exposure. We divide our sample into portfolios, categorized in the first stage independently of investment style, size and book-to-market ratio, and in the second stage on dividend exposure, that are regrouped annually. We measure the performance in terms of the geometric mean monthly returns, the risk as standard deviation of returns and the risk-adjusted performance measured with the Sharpe ratio. Following our empirical study, we find indications of a value effect in the Swedish capital market and draw upon three main conclusions. First, for all but one portfolio, the risk decreases with an increased degree of dividend exposure. Second, securities with high-dividend exposure tend to yield higher risk-adjusted returns relative to securities with no-dividend exposure. Third, the effect of dividend exposure on risk-adjusted performance appears to be most significant on mid firms and growth firms
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An Empirical Analysis of Stock Market Anomalies and Spillover Effects: Evidence from the Securities Exchange of ThailandSangmanee, Amporn 12 1900 (has links)
This study examines two interrelated but separate issues: cross-sectional predictability of equity returns in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), and transmission of stock market movements. The first essay empirically investigates to what extent the evidence of three major documented stock market anomalies (earnings-price ratio, firm size, and book-to-market ratio) can be generalized across national stock markets. The second essay studies the price and volatility spillover effects from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to the SET. The first essay, using the Fama-Macbeth procedure and the pooled time-series cross-sectional GLS regressions, finds a weak relation between the beta and average stock returns. The adjustment of estimated beta for the effect of thin trading does not change the implications of the results. Of the three anomalies investigated, the size effect has the most prominent and consistent role in explaining average returns. For the earnings-price ratio, the results indicate that the significance of the E/P ratio variable persists only if the nonfinancial firms are considered. In contrast to the previous empirical results for the U.S. and Japanese stock markets, the book-to-market ratio fails to explain the SET equity returns. The second essay employs a generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) model with conditional t-distributed errors to investigate the spillover effects. No evidence of price spillover effects is found for the full sample period. However, the spillover effects are significant during the period in which the Federal Reserve Board raised interest rates. Further examinations reveal that information inferred from price changes in the U.S. market influences only the opening price in the SET, not the open-to-close Thai stock market returns. This implies that price in the SET is informationally efficient with respect to the price determined in the U.S. stock market. The evidence is generally supportive of international financial integration and informational efficiency in the Thai stock market.
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Empirical Forecasting of Returns during the Great Recession through Economic Value AddedSekyere, Godwin Ohene 01 January 2016 (has links)
US economic recession from 2007- 2009, also known as the Great Recession, negatively impacted the financial sector as well as other aspects of society. Researchers have found value-based measures and accounting measures as effective performance measures, but they have found inconclusive results when comparing the strengths of economic value added (EVA) and accounting measures in predicting stock performance. This study used data from the Great Recession to further compare EVA and accounting measures. The purpose of this cross-sectional or correlational study was to determine the relative predictive strength of EVA during the Great Recession to determine whether a model with EVA added to accounting measures did a better job predicting stock returns. Secondary were data collected from a sample of 93 Fortune 500 Companies from 2007-2009 and then analyzed via multivariate regression analysis. The null hypothesis was not rejected. The result showed that EVA was not a useful addition to accounting variables in predicting stock returns during the Great Recession. Although the findings did not support EVA as a better predictor of stock returns during the Great Recession, the study revealed useful information about value-based measures and value-creation, especially how they are impacted by the period of a severe economic downturn. Researchers have indicated that creating value for shareholders enables the funding of positive-net-present-value projects that would result in positive social change. This study revealed that firms are unlikely to create shareholder value through returns on investment for a positive social change in unfavorable economic conditions.
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Two Essays on InvestmentWang, Bin 31 May 2014 (has links)
In the first essay titled "Shareholder Coordination, Information Diffusion and Stock Returns", we show that the quality of information sharing networks linking firms' institutional investors has stock return predictability implications. First, we demonstrate that firms with high shareholder coordination experience less local comovement and less post earnings announcement drift, consistent with the notion that coordination improves firms' information environment. We then document that the stock return performance of firms with high shareholder coordination leads that of firms with low shareholder coordination, supporting the view that coordination acts as an information diffusion channel. Finally, we provide evidence consistent with the notion that the market does not readily recognize the superior quality of high shareholder coordination firms and prices it gradually through the trading of sophisticated institutional investors, thereby causing future returns to be positively associated with shareholder coordination.
In the second essay titled "Shareholder Coordination and Stock Price Informativeness", we find that stock prices of firms with better information sharing networks linking institutional shareholders exhibit higher levels of idiosyncratic volatility. This positive relation between shareholder coordination and stock price informativeness is mainly driven by coordination among dedicated and independent institutions and exists even after accounting for endogeneity. We further show that institutional trading serves as an information diffusion channel that strengthens the relationship of shareholder coordination with price informativeness. Overall, our results indicate that a higher degree of shareholder coordination leads to more informative stock prices by encouraging the collection of and trading on private information.
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An Empirical Investigation Between Culture, Investor Protection, International Banking Disclosures and Stock ReturnsHooi, George Wye Keong, n/a January 2007 (has links)
There is a renewed interest in further exploring the significance of culture to the accounting disclosure model in view of a highly competitive global business environment. To date, there is no empirical research to investigate this issue with respect to a specific industry, namely banking. There are three main reasons for focusing only on the banking industry (Hooi 2004). First, it is considered to be the most important industry for the countrys economic and financial stability. Moreover, the IASB has recognised its significance by issuing unique accounting standards i.e. IAS30, IAS32 and IAS39. Second, Saidenberg and Schuermann (2003) argue that with the scope and complexity of Basel II, it provides opportunities for researching issues through Pillar 3. Third, with national banking systems being non-homogenous, it is important to investigate the effects of national culture because prior research has argued that cultural differences have partly explained international differences in disclosure framework of accounting systems. The purpose of this study is to apply and extend Grays (1988) theoretical framework of national culture with respect to four research questions. First, to contribute to Grays (1988) theory of cultural influence on international banking disclosures. Second, to investigate the possible significance of investor protection to the banking disclosure model. Third, to explore Grays (1988) theory on the relationship of national culture to capital market research using banking returns. Fourth, to investigate the value relevance of investor protection and banking disclosures to the returns model. Seventeen developed and developing countries with a representative sample of 37 listed domestic commercial banks were examined in 2004. For the disclosure model, the study finds that national culture is a significant factor in the banking industry. Individualism has been found as the primary cultural dimension for banking disclosures. Moreover, the explanatory power of the model significantly improves with the legal dimensions of common law and anti-director rights. The positive association between common law and banking disclosures is consistent with La Porta et al. (1998) which argue that common law countries with stronger investor protection are more transparent than civil law countries. However, there is a negative association between investor protection variable of anti-director rights with banking disclosures. This may suggest that investor protection does not encourage minority investors to enter the stock market specifically in the global banking industry. This situation may lead to a lack of demand for transparency through a smaller dispersion of ownership across the domestic banks. For the returns model, the study finds that national culture is value relevant in the banking industry. Collectivism and power distance have been found to be the two primary cultural dimensions for banking returns. Moreover, the explanatory power of the model significantly improves with anti-director rights and banking disclosures. These results are (1) consistent with La Porta et al. (2002) which argue that investor protection increases firm valuation with respect to Tobins Q and (2) international investors tend to support the Basel Committees commitment in providing a more transparent framework by implementing Pillar 3 in the near future, starting with the Basel member countries. Finally, an interesting finding from the study is that firm size has a negative association with banking returns.
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What Characterises Successful Stocks? : A case study of Swedish companies between 1995 and 2005Forss, Gabriel January 2006 (has links)
<p>This paper discusses the indicators of financial success for Swedish companies from 1995 until 2005. Quarterly data on 42 Swedish companies were collected from the Datastream data base and analysed by using both portfolio analyses and parametric analysis. In this study, financial success is measured by using the acclaimed concepts of the Sharpe ratio and the Jensen’s Alpha. The Sharpe ratios of the companies are studied between 1995-2005 and this discussion is complemented by analysis of the Jensen’s Alpha in the second half of that time period i.e. 2000-2005. The relationship between these performance metrics and certain company-characteristics such as the book-to-market ratio, the ROA measure and capital structure is studied. The conclusion is that companies that have a high degree of profitability and maintain high book-to-market ratios outperform other companies in terms of generating excess returns to shareholders. Another interesting observation is the fact that company size does not have any significant relationship to company performance.</p>
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Antipersistence in German stock returnsKunze, Karl-Kuno, Strohe, Hans Gerhard January 2010 (has links)
Persistence of stock returns is an extensively studied and discussed theme in the analysis of financial markets. Antipersistence is usually attributed to volatilities. However, not only volatilities but also stock returns can exhibit antipersistence. Antipersistent noise has a somewhat rougher appearance than Gaussian noise. Heuristically spoken, price movements are more likely followed by movements in the opposite direction than in the same direction.
The pertaining integrated process exhibits a smaller range – prices seem to stay in the vicinity of the initial value. We apply a widely used test based upon the modified R/S-Method by Lo [1991] to daily returns of 21 German stocks from 1960 to 2008. Combining this test with the concept of moving windows by Carbone et al. [2004], we are able to determine periods of antipersistence for some of the series under examination. Our results suggest that antipersistence can be found for stocks and periods where extraordinary corporate actions such as mergers & acquisitions or financial distress are present. These effects should be properly accounted for when choosing and designing models for inference.
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What Characterises Successful Stocks? : A case study of Swedish companies between 1995 and 2005Forss, Gabriel January 2006 (has links)
This paper discusses the indicators of financial success for Swedish companies from 1995 until 2005. Quarterly data on 42 Swedish companies were collected from the Datastream data base and analysed by using both portfolio analyses and parametric analysis. In this study, financial success is measured by using the acclaimed concepts of the Sharpe ratio and the Jensen’s Alpha. The Sharpe ratios of the companies are studied between 1995-2005 and this discussion is complemented by analysis of the Jensen’s Alpha in the second half of that time period i.e. 2000-2005. The relationship between these performance metrics and certain company-characteristics such as the book-to-market ratio, the ROA measure and capital structure is studied. The conclusion is that companies that have a high degree of profitability and maintain high book-to-market ratios outperform other companies in terms of generating excess returns to shareholders. Another interesting observation is the fact that company size does not have any significant relationship to company performance.
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