This study proposes a program trading system and applied to Taiwan Stock Market , the trading rules refer to Curtis(2007) -¡yWay of the turtle¡z. In this research , we follow the trend following rule to invest in Taiwan Stock Market and not predict the future price of the market. To see if this system is good enough , we use average earn/loss ratio and average return to measure. Finally , we take trend following strategy compare with four different strategies. This research choose 16 stocks of Taiwan Stock Market , research period is from 1998/1/3 to 2007/12/31. The result show that trend following strategy gain positive return in different states and periods , its performance better than other strategies. We find the¡§Loss Stop¡¨is the key of trend following strategy in this research.

[pt] Este trabalho se propõe analisar e comparar filtros de tendência, aplicando-os a estratégias de trend-following. A metodologia proposta pode auxiliar a construção de estratégias de investimento. Considerando a busca na literatura por técnicas de extração de tendências que evitem overfitting, este trabalho analisará diferentes filtros: filtro L1 (Kim et al., 2009), filtros de médias móveis, o filtro Hodrick-Precott (Hodrick; et al., 1997) e o filtro de Kalman (Kalman, 1960). Para uma base de dados formada por séries de preços de ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) de índices de bolsa de mercados emergentes, a metodologia apresentada se propõe a avaliar comparativamente o desempenho de estratégias de trend-following ao aplicar cada um dos filtros. Os filtros são comparáveis, visto que estarão sendo aplicados às mesmas estratégias, aos mesmos ativos e com os mesmos recursos computacionais. Tendo em vista análises recentes e de boa performance, será dada ênfase ao filtro L1, que é um filtro não linear, diferente dos demais utilizados neste trabalho. Os resultados desta dissertação indicam que o filtro L1 se destaca em relação aos outros, especialmente para estratégias de trend-following em períodos diários e semanais. De forma geral, quando se incluem custos nas estratégias os filtros apresentam resultados superiores ao benchmark, isto é, trades desnecessários, diminuindo assim o custo de transação. Desta forma, espera-se que a metodologia proposta forneça respaldo para tomada de decisão por parte de investidores. / [en] This dissertation aims to analyze and compare trend filters, applying them to trend-following strategies. The proposed methodology can help in decision making for the construction of investment strategies. Considering the search in the literature for techniques of extracting trends that avoid overfitting, this work will analyze different filters: L1 filter (Kim et al., 2009), moving average filters, Hodrick-Precott filter (Hodrick et al., 1997) and the Kalman filter (Kalman, 1960). For a database consisting of stock exchange ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) of emerging market stock indices, the presented methodology proposes to comparatively evaluate the performance of trend-following strategies when applying each of the filters. The filters are comparable, since they will be applied to the same strategies, the same assets and with the same computational resources. Considering recent analyzes and good performance, emphasis will be placed on the L1 filter, which is a nonlinear filter, different from the others used in this work. The results of this dissertation indicate that the L1 filter stands out in relation to the others, especially for trend-following strategies in daily and weekly periods. In general, when you include costs in strategies, the filters present results that are higher than the benchmark, that is, unnecessary trades, thus reducing transaction costs. In this way, the proposed methodology is expected to provide support for decision-making by investors.

Detta examensarbete analyserar effekterna av volatilitet och korrelation på trading strategier brukade av Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA´s). Denna studie bygger på en kvantitativ analys av data som insamlats från Barclay Hedge database. Studien har genomförts i samarbete med RPM Risk & Portfoliomanagement i Stockholm, Sverige. Traditionellt sett, när globala marknader visar på högre volatilitet än genomsnittet, har detta identifierats som ett tecken på en björnmarknad med negativ avkastning på aktier. Förhållandet mellan volatilitet och negativ avkastning på aktier var initialt uppmärksammat av Black år 1976. Förhållandet mellan volatilitet och korrelation mellan marknaderna har analyserats i denna uppsats och resultaten tyder på att högre nivåer av volatilitet för även med sig högre nivåer av korrelation. Den uppmäta korrelationen mellan volatilitet och korrelation var så hög som 0,7. CTA´s handlar så kallade Managed Futures, framtida kontrakt på råvaror, där varje kontrakt har en lång och kort position vilket gör det möjligt att nå en positiv avkastning även under hög volatilitet. De tre mest använda strategierna för CTA´s, short term trading (kortsiktig handel), fundamental handel och Trendföljande handel, presenteras i denna studie och deras möjlighet att bära positiv avkastning i en mycket volatil marknad härleds. Resultaten tyder på att en hög volatilitetsregim med hög korrelation gynnar den kortsiktiga handelsstrategin mer än fundamental och trendföljande handel. / This master thesis analyses the impacts of volatility and correlation on common strategies for Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). It is based on a quantitative analysis of data gathered from the Barclay Hedge database. The study was done in cooperation with RPM Risk and Portfolio Management based in Stockholm, Sweden. Traditionally, when global markets see higher levels of volatility this has been identified as a sign of a bear market with negative returns on equities. The relationship between volatility and negative returns on equities was first acknowledged by Black in 1976. The relationship between volatility and correlation between markets has been analyzed in this thesis and the findings suggest that higher levels of volatility brings with it higher levels of correlation. The correlation between volatility and correlation is as high as 0.7. CTAs trade future contracts where every contract has a long and short position which is making it possible to reach positive returns even under extreme volatility. The three most popular strategies for CTAs, Short Term trading, Fundamental trading and Trend Following, are presented in this study and their possibility to have positive returns in highly volatile environments is derived from the analysis. The findings suggest that in a high volatility regime with high correlation Short Term trading strategy has been the most profitable.

This study examines whether a trend following managed futures fund can improve its performance by changing its position sizing method. Trades for a simple trend following strategy was simulated on 47 futures contracts over the period 1990-2012, using varying methods for determining position size. Eleven different position sizing methods where investigated, among them Target Volatility, Omega Optimization and correlation ranking methods. Both methods previously detailed in academic papers as well as novel approaches was implemented, and compared to the baseline performance of the strategy. The results from this study show that the Target Volatility method, and to some degree Max Drawdown Minimize and Dynamic Stop Lock-In, improved the performance of strategy. The final recommendation for a trend following managed futures fund is to use Target Volatility as position sizing method, possibly in conjunction with Max Drawdown Minimize. / Denna studie undersöker huruvida en trendföljande managed futures-fond kan förbättra sina resultat genom att ändra positionsskalningsmetod. Handel med en enkel trendföljande strategi simulerades på 47 futureskontrakt åren 1990-2012, för olika metoder att för bestämma positionsstorlek. Elva positionsskalningmetoder undersöktes, exemplevis Target Volatility, Omega Optimization och metoder baserade i korrelationsrankning. Både tidigare beskrivna metoder och nya tillvägagångssätt testades, och jämfördes med den grundläggande strategin med avseende på risk och avkastning. Denna studies resultat visar att framförallt Target Volatility, och i viss uträckning Max Drawdown Minimize och Dynamic Stop Lock-In förbättrade nyckeltalen för den handlade strategin. Den slutgiltiga rekommendationen för en trendföljande managed futures-fond är att använda Target Volatility som positionsskalningsmetod, möjligtvis tillsammans med Max Drawdown Minimize.

Ett vanligt förekommande problem för investerare som använder trendföljande strategier är att de ofta hamnar felpositionerade när en trend tar slut. I den här studien visas hur ett riskaptitsindex, Global Risk Appetite Index (GRAI), kan användas för att förutspå dessa trendbrott och på så sätt förbättra trendföljande strategiers prestation. Indexet implementeras som indikator i tre olika trendföljande strategier och lyckas under rätt förutsättningar förbättra alla strategiernas prestation, under backtesting över de senaste 16 åren. Strategierna presterar generellt bäst, det vill säga ger högst avkastning i förhållande till risken, då signal att marknaden kommer vända ges 2-3 veckor efter att indexet når någon av extremzonerna panik eller eufori. Extremzonerna definieras som 5:e respektive 95:e percentilen av indexets värde under en tidsperiod bakåt i tiden. Bäst resultat erhålls då denna tidsperiod är 2-3 år.  Vidare undersöks alternativa sätt att beräkna Global Risk Appetite Index. Tillgångarna som studeras för att ge en bild av riskaptiten varieras och det visar sig att en version som endast studerar sex olika marknadsindex förbättrar de trendföljande strategierna mest, vilket är en klar förenkling över de 64 tillgångar som används i den ursprungliga versionen av indexet. / A regular problem for investment managers who use trend following strategies are that they often find themselves badly positioned when at the end of a trend. In this study it is shown how a risk appetite index, Global Risk Appetite Index (GRAI), can be used in order to predict these trend breaks and thereby improve the performance of trend following strategies. The index is implemented as an indicator for three different trend following strategies and given the right parameters, the return of all three strategies is increased during backtesting on data from the previous 16 years. In general, the strategies give the highest return in relation to risk when signal that the trend will reverse is given 2 to 3 weeks after the index reaches one of the extreme zones, Panic or Euphoria. These extreme zones are calculated as vales under the 5:th or over the 95:th percentile of the index’s value over a certain window back in time. The best result is achieved when this timespan is 2 to 3 years. Furthermore, alternate ways to calculate Global Risk Appetite Index are studied. The assets that are analysed in order to quantify the risk appetite are varied and it is shown that a version of GRAI analyzing only 6 more summarizing market indices give better results when used in trend following models. This is a clear simplification from the 64 assets used in the original version of the index.

Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have gained popularity due to their abilities to generate an absolute return strategy. Little is known about how CTAs work and what variables are important to tune in order to create a profitable strategy. Some investors use CTA-like strategies to leverage their portfolio and create positive returns in times when the spot market is falling. The report is written for Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken and aims to give the bank and readers an understanding on how changes of parameters in a CTA strategy change the outcome of it with focus on three main measurements: Sharpe ratio, drawdown and total return.  The foundation of CTAs is that they rely on signals from some given sets of assets and make investments decisions solely based on them. CTAs can be rule-based with a binomial signal, or they can use a continual signal, like in the report. The thesis aims to recreate a CTA using a continuous momentum signal and with the signal, invest accordingly. Some different variables were tested, most importantly the report focuses on the weights of the assets and investigates if the momentum signal is good as it is or if a risk parity weighting is needed on top of the signal in order to generate a return that matches the expectations of a low drawdown and a high Sharpe ratio.  Beyond the weight allocation, different lookback periods of both the signal and weight were tested. A shorter lookback generated a quicker return that was more sensible to short trends on the market. Which in some cases was profitable but it also lost more of it accumulated return when the trend was "false". The equally weighted signal that only takes the trend into account when allocating the weights of the assets was more volatile it its returns and benefited from a long signal. The CTA results presented can only be seen as an index since it is rebalanced every rebalancing point, the frequency of those points was examined and the strategy was performing well if rebalanced once a week or once a month, every day and once a year did not yield a better result.  As expected, the CTA benefits from trend on the market, no matter the direction of it. The best periods for the CTA were when the market was very volatile, mainly 2008 and 2022. When there is no clear trend, the CTA reacts too slowly and often loses money. One important conclusion is that the CTA never should be used as an investment strategy on its own, rather as a hedging strategy that allocates a fraction of a total long-only portfolio.

På 1980-talet handlade en grupp, som kallades för The Turtle Traders, med två trendföljande handelsstrategier helt baserade på teknisk analys på ett stort antal finansmarknader. De två handelsstrategierna byggde på mekaniska regler för köp- respektive säljbeslut och riskhantering, men även regler för vilka marknader som var tillåtna att handla på. Gruppen var mycket framgångsrik under flera år och medlemmarnas avkastningar översteg marknadernas avkastningar med råge. Den svaga varianten av den effektiva marknadshypotesen säger att detta ska vara omöjligt på effektiva marknader. På en effektiv marknad är det enligt hypotesen istället bättre att följa en buy-and-hold strategi. Hur kommer det sig att The Turtle Traders lyckades? Var det bara tur att de två trendföljande strategierna, som genererade köp- och säljbesluten, gav väldigt höga avkastningar under några år på 1980-talet? Eller är inte marknaderna effektiva? Inom forskningen råder det idag en oklar bild kring den effektiva marknadshypotesen och huruvida marknaderna är effektiva. Olika vetenskapliga studier presenterar tester som både stöder och förkastar hypotesen. Syftet med det här examensarbetet är att visa huruvida de två trendföljande strategierna fortfarande är vinstgivande och därmed användbara strategier på dagens finansmarknader. Syftet är också att jämföra de två strategierna med buy-and-hold strategin på olika marknaderna och därmed bidra med ytterligare insikter till den numera alltmer ifrågasättande diskussionen kring den effektiva marknadshypotesen, med speciellt fokus på den svaga varianten. För att få fram vilka avkastningar de två trendföljande strategierna ger på dagens marknader konstrueras inom ramen för detta examensarbete ett datorprogram som simulerar de köp- och säljbeslut som skulle tas med hjälp av de mekaniska regler som de två trendföljande strategierna bygger på. Undersökningen i examensarbetet ger, precis som många andra undersökningar, en oklar bild kring den effektiva marknadshypotesen. Hälften av de finansmarknader som undersöks tycks vara ineffektiva och hälften effektiva, enligt den svaga varianten av hypotesen. Undersökningen visar även att de två trendföljande strategierna inte är så pass vinstgivande att de kan rekommenderas att använda på dagens finansmarknader. / During the 1980s a group called The Turtle Traders used two trend following trading strategies, based on technical analysis, to trade a large number of financial markets. The two trading strategies used mechanical rules to make buy and sell decisions and to manage risk. The rules also specified which markets to trade. The group was very successful during several years in the 1980s and the returns the members of the group generated, using the two trading strategies, widely surpassed the returns of the markets. The weak form of the efficient market hypothesis states that this should be impossible on markets that are efficient. On efficient markets it is instead better to follow a buy-and-hold strategy. How come that The Turtle Traders succeeded? Was is just luck that the two trend following strategies, that generated the buy and sell decisions, resulted in such high returns during a few years in the 1980s? Or are the markets inefficient? Current research gives an unclear picture regarding the efficient market hypothesis and whether or not the markets are efficient. Different studies present results that both support and reject the hypothesis. The purpose of this bachelor thesis is to show whether or not the two trend following strategies still are profitable and therefor useful strategies on the financial markets of today. The purpose is also to compare the two strategies with the buy-and-hold strategy on different markets and in this way contribute with more insights to the ongoing and nowadays often increasingly questioning discussion regarding the efficient market hypothesis, with special focus on the weak form of the hypothesis. To get the returns of the two trend following strategies on the financial markets of today a computer program is constructed as part of this bachelor thesis. This computer program simulates the buy and sell decisions that would have been taken by the mechanical rules the two trend following strategies are built upon. The study done in this bachelor thesis gives, just as many other studies, an unclear picture of the efficient market hypothesis. Half of the markets that are studied in this thesis seem to be inefficient and half seem to be efficient, according to the weak form of the hypothesis. The study also shows that none of the two trend following strategies are profitable enough that they can be recommended to be used on the financial markets of today.

Submitted by Verena Pereira (verenagoncalves@uefs.br) on 2018-09-12T21:52:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Vers?o Final_Disserta??o.pdf: 2988104 bytes, checksum: c27862945e0f83da183a6c591a54de39 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-12T21:52:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Vers?o Final_Disserta??o.pdf: 2988104 bytes, checksum: c27862945e0f83da183a6c591a54de39 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-06-15 / Trading systems based on trend following strategies are applied by many investors when negotiating in the variable income markets, in operations conducted in several asset classes worldwide. These systems play an important role in investor decision-making process, but still require further study. In this dissertation, four trend following trading systems are presented, whose performances have been demonstrated in order to evaluate their effectiveness in the Brazilian variable income market. Two of the four proposed systems were evaluated in the stock market and the other two were considered for the future contract market. For this purpose, a historical series of asset prices available for trade between January 1995 and December 2014 at the S?o Paulo Mercantile and Futures Exchange. Through simulations, the systems showed that if they were traded on the stock market and futures markets in Brazil, they would generate profitability, indicating the existence of several trends in the assets studied, obtaining a performance superior to strategy of buying and hold in the market Ibovespa index. This study contributes to the discussion on the effectiveness of trading systems based on the trend following investment philosophy / Sistemas de negocia??o baseados em estrat?gias fundamentadas no trend following, s?o utilizados por in?meros investidores para negociarem nos mercados de renda vari?vel, em opera??es nas mais variadas classes de ativos no mundo. Esses sistemas desempenham papel importante na tomada de decis?o por parte de um investidor na realiza??o de uma negocia??o, no entanto, ainda precisam de maiores estudos. Nesta disserta??o, apresentamos quatro trading systems seguidores de tend?ncias, os quais tiveram suas performances demonstradas na perspectiva de avaliar a efic?cia desses trading systems no mercado de renda vari?vel brasileiro. Dois dos quatro sistemas propostos, foram avaliados no mercado de a??es e os outros dois foram considerados para opera??es no mercado de contratos futuros. Para tanto, foram consideradas s?ries hist?ricas de pre?os de ativos dispon?veis para negocia??o entre janeiro de 1995 ? dezembro de 2014, na Bolsa de Valores Mercadorias e Futuros de S?o Paulo. Atrav?s de simula??es, os sistemas demonstraram que caso fossem operados no mercado de a??es e/ou de futuros do Brasil, gerariam lucros, indicando-se a exist?ncia de diversas tend?ncias nos ativos estudados, obtendo-se performance superior ? estrat?gia de comprar e manter no ?ndice Ibovespa. O presente trabalho contribui na discuss?o a respeito da efic?cia de sistemas de negocia??o baseados na filosofia de investimento do trend following

Master´s thesis goal that the author hopes to achieve is a design of an application aiding stock technical analysis based on identified needs. Based on analysis regarding modules for technical analysis of current trading platforms, I found out there is a certain space for improvement. Implemented trading rules and technical indicators of the application itself are further examined in terms of prognostic success rate on historical data. Selected chapters of technical analysis are fundamental base for this master´s thesis.