The submitted diploma thesis is dedicated to the calculation of the estimation of output gap by three estimating techniques (Hodrick-Prescott filter, Kalman filtering, and Cobb-Douglas production function) for the Czech Republic during the years 1995-2009, and, consequently, to their usefulness for testing the Okun's law as a suitable predicative tool. In other words, which of the mentioned methods is the most appropriate one for an accurate prediction of the rate of unemployment. To achieve this, the Box-Jenkins methodology is used for modelling and designing the cyclical unemployment forecasts and dynamic version of the Okun's law. The results indicate that, for the given period, there is relatively strong and unstable relationship between changes in output gap and changes in cyclical unemployment in the Czech Republic. The most suitable technique for the estimating of the future development of unemployment gap seems to be the Cobb-Douglas production function approach. This is namely based on the quantity of gained forecast errors and Granger causality.

This master thesis analyses a labour market at the region Most that has high unemployment rate. After the theoretical basis, the structural analysis of unemployment and its development thesis researches disequilibrium of the labour market both on the side of supply (active employment policy particularly retraining) and demand (the biggest employers in the area). The goal of the thesis is the cost analysis of the efficiency allocated resources into retraining programme particularly into its returns. It is illustrated on model situations and then on the average situation. According to the results it is appraised the truth of the hypothesis that active employment policy is advantageous for state and employers than passive employment policy in the long period. Thesis uses statistic models, comparison, situation analysis and questionnaire.

This thesis seeks to predict the results of the presidential election in the United States, with a specific interest in swing states. I construct a methodology to predict the difference between the state and national two-party vote share for all 50 states plus D.C. using economic variables such as the change in the unemployment rate, the growth of real per capita Gross Domestic Product, Gallup poll ratings, and the ideology of the candidate. The methodology presented also allows the number of swing states to adjust between election years by giving each state its own coefficient on the difference between the state and national change in the unemployment rate. The resulting State-National Gap Model is then used to predict the two-party vote share for the Democrats using regression analysis with panel data for the elections from 1992-2008. My model is tested against the 2012 election and successfully predicts 49 out of 50 states as well as D.C.

[pt] Este artigo tem como objetivo analisar os efeitos do ciclo econômico no mercado de trabalho brasileiro entre os grupos demográficos. Nós iremos quantificar os efeitos do ciclo, períodos de crescimento e recessão, nas taxas de desemprego e ocupação entre indivíduos de diferentes idades, gêneros, escolaridade e raça. Utilizamos os microdados da PME, divulgada pelo IBGE, para estimar um modelo que mostra as reações à crise de cada grupo demográfico. Nosso estudo mostra que os grupos que mais sofrem durante a crise são mulheres brancas, jovens, e indivíduos com baixo nível educacional. Estes grupos registraram a maior reação nas taxas de desemprego e ocupação durante o ciclo comparado aos seus pares. Além disso, mostraremos que as diferenças entre os grupos podem ser explicadas, parcialmente, pela sua participação entre os setores da economia. / [en] In this paper we explore the effects of business cycle on labor market outcomes. We examine how the business cycles affect the occupation and unemployment rates across people of different age, gender, race and education. We use individual level data from PME, published by IBGE, to estimate a panel data model that calculates the sensitivity of each group to the business cycle in main metropolitan regions in Brazil. Our study shows that the impacts of cycles are not uniform across demographic groups and who are most sensible to business cycles are white women, youth and low education workers. These groups registered the greatest reaction in their unemployment and employment rates during recessions and booms, respectively, compared to their pairs. In addition, we show that the differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups can be explained in part by differences in their exposure to industry occupation employment.

Česká republika má míru nezaměstnanosti jednu z nejvyšších v Evropě. Naopak Velká Británie má míru nezaměstnanosti jednu z nejnižších. Jedním z nejlepších způsobů, jak nezaměstnanost snížit, je poskytovat kvalitní a tolik potřebné vzdělání. I když tuto skutečnost mnozí přehlížejí, právě porovnání těchto dvou zemí dokazuje, že tomu tak opravdu je. První a druhá kapitola obsahuje informace o vzdělanostních systémech v obou zemích. Obě kapitoly pak přibližují fakt, jak jsou vzdělání a zaměstnanost propojené obory. Další kapitoly přináší především porovnání obou zemí podle zvolených ukazatelů, které jsou čím dál tím více důležité. Pochopitelně nechybí ani nové trendy ve vzdělávání, které lze v současné době využít. V sedmé kapitole jsou uvedena rizika ale i příležitosti, které by měly vést ke zlepšení situace. Lze zde nalézt ale i doporučení, která by bylo dobré v České republice realizovat.

The unemployment is one of the main economic indicators. Thanks to time series analysis and predicting values, we can take measures of eliminating negative aspects of the unemployment in the economy. This thesis is concentrated on connection between theory of unemployment with time series analysis of unemployment rate, especially based on Box-Jenkins methodology.

This thesis analyses the labour market in the region Kroměříž and unemployment in this region. The thesis describes the main charakteristics of labour market in the territory of county Kroměříž and his special signs too. Theory is being explained by fundamentals terms like labour market, unemployment, unemployment rate and active and passive employment policy. Single chapters describes risk groups on the labour market like women, school leavers, Roms, foreigners and disabled people. Unemployment is connected to the psychological and sociological aspects. That's why thesis describes a negative impact to the unemployment of the people. Focus is apllyed to the bureau of labour and their function on labour market like agent of work. Thesis is focused on the Strategy industrial zone Holešov too. This can offer a lot of job places. Thesis describes risk factors like aging of population, decreasing natality and other.

Master's Thesis focuses on development of unemployment in countries of Central Europe, specifically on example of Czech and Slovak republic. Aim of Master's Thesis is to analyse and name the causes of unemployment in Czech and Slovak republic, esprecially during the period after the year 1993, when these two countries separated. First, theoretical part describes the reasons and different kinds of unemployment. Included are also sociological, psychological and health aspects. Methodological part describes the mothods used for Master's Thesis processing. Naming and comparison of different unemployment reasons in Czech and Slovek republic are creating the content of practical part of this Master's Thesis.

This thesis focuses on the problem of unemployment, which culminates during times of economic recession. After the onset of the financial crisis in 2008, the unemployment rate grew in all european countries with the exception of Germany. A state which only ten years ago was considered to be the sick man of Europe, because of its problematic situation in the labour market. This work describes the development of the german labour market with emphasis on the role of pre-crisis labour policies reforms. Subsequently their effectiveness in times of a global financial crisis. Later the focus shifts to the Czech labour market and its development before and after 2008. The goal of this thesis is to perform an analysis and comparison of the statistical data of the aforementioned labour markets. The closing recommendations are based on the evaluation of the possibility to apply some of the german labour policies onto the Czech labour market.

The objective of diploma thesis is to define specific groups of population, defined by sex, age or education, which are represented disproportionately in comparison of whole population of Czech Republic. In the thesis is described the population structure in terms of demography and economy, as well as factors which influence the labor market from short-term and long-term point of view. To achieve all marked out objectives is made explanatory statistics for unemployment of specified groups of population and the index analysis that allows to examine the inter-annual development of unemployment rate in terms of age, sex and education. Based on the index analysis are defined critical groups, which are evaluated by proportionality among unemployed persons. The analysis showed that critical groups are considered young people with lower level of education and women with high school education or women 30-39 years old.