Thesis (M.A.)--Guo li Taiwan da xue, 1980. / Cover title. Reproduced from typescript. Includes bibliographical references (p. 267-279).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Hong Kong Baptist University, 2000. / Thesis submitted to the Dept. of Chinese Language and Literature. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 397-406).

An investigation was conducted to identify factors associated with traffic accident involvement and traffic casualty involvement of road users in Scotland. This was done to determine to what extent accident and casualty involvement are related, and so assist policy-makers in the allocation of scarce resources. Traffic accident involvement was identified for Scottish-resident vehicle drivers. Traffic casualty involvement was identified for vulnerable road users, particularly child pedestrians. Traffic accident rates were determined from information provided by approximately one thousand Scottish-resident drivers who completed an extensive questionnaire on driving behaviours. Their personal characteristics, socio-demographic data, and information on attitudes to road safety issues, were also provided. This broad investigation revealed that traffic accident involvement was found to be associated with personal characteristics, driving behaviour, and attitudes to road safety issues. There is no evidence of any area effect on accident involvement of Scottish drivers, in terms of the administrative area in which they live, the relative level of affluence/deprivation of the area, or the population density of the area. A detailed statistical analysis of STATS19 traffic accident data was conducted to determine casualty rates for different groups of road user in Lothian, Scotland, for the years 1991-97. This involved the development of a unique index of multiple deprivation suitable for both urban and rural areas. Traffic casualty rates were found to be positively associated with the level of deprivation and the population density at postcode sector level. Analysis of injury-accident data identified that personal characteristics are also associated with casualty involvement for children aged 0-15 years old. As with accident involvement, the influence of behavioural and attitudinal factors on casualty involvement needs to be examined. A significant finding from this study is that traffic accident risk and traffic casualty risk are not associated with the same factors. Place of residence is significant in determining casualty risk, but has no significant effect on accident risk. Implications from this research are discussed and suitable recommendations are made.

The movement of pedestrians in the urban environment is vital for sustaining the social and economic relationships essential to the quality of life. To enable and encourage walking, suitable facilities must be available and planning and implementing such facilities requires an understanding of the characteristics of pedestrian movements. This thesis examined the factors which influence walking speeds, related them to current pedestrian modelling techniques and developed a series of new models to improve their estimation. A comprehensive review of current practices and procedures for modelling pedestrian walking speeds was carried out, identifying the factors currently used in existing methodology and highlighted its deficiencies. A significant finding from this study was that the industry-standard Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) methodology as it currently stands is not fully applicable to the types of walking environments that were the subject of this research (on-street walkways in UK shopping and Central Business District areas). It was shown there is a need to provide more holistic relationships which take into account the interactions between the characteristics of pedestrians and their walking environments (both built and natural). A number of additional factors which have a significant affect on walking speeds were identified and a series of new statistical relationships were developed which were also tested and validated against independent data. The predictive performance of the new models was also compared against the leading industry-standard methodology and shown to provide significantly better estimates. Future areas of research were also identified and described. The research thus provided a greater understanding of the dynamics affecting walking speeds, thereby helping to assist transport planners and engineers with the study and design of suitable pedestrian facilities.

Parking plays an important role in mobility, access and the economic development of cities; at the same time, it is a profitable business for both the private and public sectors. The city centre car parking market is a sector of the economy that has increased in importance as the market for cars has grown. Cars have become a fundamental element of journey mobility and, in consequence, parking has as well. The car-parking sector has always been of great importance in terms of urban mobility, since it is a fundamental element in achieving a high level of accessibility in the city centres. In fact, many businesses and municipalities see an adequate supply of parking, especially for visitors, as crucial for their competitive growth. Yet, at the same time parking is, and will remain for most cities, the most powerful means of traffic restraint available. The economics of car parking is also important because it is, both for public and private organizations, a key source of revenue. Despite the importance of the sector, knowledge of the car parking market has been until very recently, sparse and limited. This thesis is focused on the car parking operator?s point of view, analysing and appraising this industry and the actors involved. The related literature investigates the car parking sector analysing the variables that influence its behaviour. The literature review also appraises whether and how far car parking operators are considered as key transport actors by local and national authorities, comparing Italy and the UK. The information collected is used to structure an econometric model, using the variables chosen as important and simulating the strategic behaviour of the car parking operator in a city centre context. The research also deepens the analysis of the car parking sector with a survey of car parking operators and policies in some Italian and UK cities. In this way the research achieves its aims to contribute to filling the knowledge gap on the city centre car parking market, both theoretically and empirically. Theoretically because the literature on car parking is very recent and little investigated; empirically, because research in this field is also sparse.

This thesis aims to investigate the diverse roles information and communications technologies (ICT) play in shaping individuals’ mobility behaviour. In doing so, three strands of interrelated research questions are empirically analysed to better understand the use of ICT and its implications for travel among both working adults and millennials. A cross-sectional analysis is firstly performed to examine the variations in the relationships between Internet use and non-mandatory travel patterns according to household working status. By employing data from the 2005/06 Scottish Household Survey (SHS) and the two-part model, the ICT-travel relationships are found to be characterised by individual employment status and intra-household interactions, which impose different constraints on individuals’ non-mandatory mobility patterns. A repeated cross-sectional analysis using the difference-in-differences (DD) estimation and the pooling of cross sections from the 2005/06 SHS data and the 2015 Integrated Multimedia City Data (iMCD) subsequently examines the evolutions in the ICT-travel relationships over time, and how temporal changes differ between the general adult population and the millennial generation. Findings suggest that the changes over time are generally characterised by diminishing complementarity and increasing substitution. Moreover, while the temporal changes for the general population are mostly found among the medium-to-heavy Internet users, for millennials, it is the light or medium-to-light users who see significant temporal changes. Finally, using the longitudinal datasets from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the Understanding Society Survey, an exploration is undertaken of the direct and indirect effects of prior experience with using ICT (as children) on millennials’ current travel behaviour. The structural equation model is applied to examine the relationships between ICT use, travel choices, and environmental attitude. The longitudinal analysis finds that millennials’ long-term exposure to ICT (since adolescence) may shape their current travel patterns by influencing their environmental attitudes. The findings from these analyses highlight the importance of considering the effects of personal, household, and social characteristics on the ICT-travel interactions. In addition, the research focuses on dynamic interactions and on the indirect or higher-order roles of ICT in affecting travel behaviour as well as on the implications for transport planning practices and policy making.

The 1985 Transport Act, by which the British local bus industry outside London was deregulated, is considered as one of the most pioneering reforms of public transport policy in the world. The deregulation package (which also included privatisation and subsidy reduction) was controversial and was subject to heated academic debates over how successful it would be (and consequently has been) in reversing the deteriorating performance of local bus services since the Second World War. This debate specifically focused on issues concerning the efficiency of service provision, quality of service, and overall welfare. In addition, the contrasting regulatory system adopted in London (competitive tendering) has given opportunities for researchers to evaluate and compare the outcomes of these contrasting systems and draw conclusions over the impacts of such regulatory reforms on the local bus industry in Great Britain. Commentators began to evaluate regulatory experience as quickly as the end of the first year after deregulation. However, the amount of research has declined as time has passed. The key fundamental questions, which the current research is trying to answer, are: what are the longer term impacts of the deregulation policy, how successful was it in achieving its objectives and what lessons can be drawn after more than 20 years? These questions can be answered by carrying out cost-benefit analyses of deregulation policy compared to the counterfactual as well as to the alternative regime adopted in London. A key issue when examining long term changes is that of the counterfactual – what would have happened if the changes had not occurred? Econometric models of the demand, fare and cost for local bus services in Britain (London and the rest of the country) are outlined and used along with extrapolative methods for some key input variables such as bus kms and subsidy to determine counterfactuals. A large number of dynamic demand models have been estimated, considering both fixed and random effect, and using a variety of estimation methods including the Feasible Generalised Least Squares procedure (FGLS-AR(1)) and the Panel Corrected Standard Error (PCSE-AR(1)) method. In addition to Partial Adjustment Models (PAM), several Error Correction Models (ECM) were developed. Some analyses of subsidy and of costs are also outlined. The developed fares models are used to assess the impact of changes in subsidy (in terms of revenue support and concessionary fare reimbursements). The cost models are used to determine the extent to which costs are determined by external factors (such as fuel prices) or partially external factors (such as labour costs). This then permits the examination of welfare change by estimating changes in consumer and producer surpluses as well the impacts on government, bus workers, and society as a whole. Our finding is that there are net welfare decreases outside London, by contrast, welfare increases are found in London irrespective of whether subsidy changes impacts are included or excluded. We find that bus reforms in London have been more welfare enhancing than the reforms in Great Britain outside London, where deregulation led to substantial welfare losses in the first decade of the reforms (1985/6 to 1995/6). From the second decade onwards there are smaller losses. However, the results are sensitive to the specification of the modelling system and assumptions made concerning the counterfactual for the deregulated area in particular. This work confirms the sensitivity of the long term evaluation of transport policy to assumptions concerning the counterfactual and trends in demand, supply and prices. Any policy lessons inferred from these long term evaluations therefore need to take these sensitivities into account.

Britain’s national rail system was ‘privatised’ as a result of the 1993 Railways Act, with most of the organisational and ownership changes implemented by 1997. This thesis examines the long term impacts of the privatisation initiative on the passenger rail service. A key issue when examining long term changes is that of the counterfactual – what would have happened if the changes had not occurred? A simple econometric model of the demand for passenger rail services was developed and used in conjunction with extrapolative methods for key variables such as fares, train kms and GDP to determine demand-side counterfactuals. Extrapolative methods were also used to determine counterfactual infrastructure and train operation costs. Although since privatisation rail demand has grown strongly, the analysis indicates that transitional disruptions suppressed demand by around 4% over a prolonged period (1994/95 to 2005/6), whilst the Hatfield accident reduced demand by about 5%, albeit over a short period (2000/1 to 2005/6). A welfare analysis indicates that although consumers gained as a result of privatisation, for most years this has been offset by increases in costs. An exception is provided by the two years immediately before the Hatfield accident. Overall the loss in welfare since the reforms were introduced far exceeds the net receipts from the sale of rail businesses. It is found that although the reforms have had advantages in terms of lower fares and better service levels than otherwise would have been the case, this has been offset by adverse transitional effects and high costs, which in turn may be linked with higher transaction costs.

This thesis uses the techniques of economic theory to examine the behaviour of agents in new marketplaces that have formed on the Internet. It is divided into three chapters, each focusing upon a different aspect of market behaviour. I begin in chapter 2 by building a simultaneous, unit demand, heterogeneous good, ascending auction model, which I use to study the behaviour of bidders in Internet auctions. Using this model, I demonstrate that late bidding—often observed in eBay auctions—is not inconsistent with allocative efficiency. Moreover, I show that when all agents are fully rational, have private values, and face a perfect bid-transmission mechanism, there can still exit an incentive for bidders to systematically delay their final bid. In a manner consistent with earlier empirical observations, this incentive disappears when the hard-close ending rule is relaxed. In chapter 3 I model strategic interaction amongst search engines that compete to serve consumer needs. Search engines generate revenue from advertisers, but also provide free organic search results. I demonstrate that, in an attempt to win market share, search engines compete not only against each other, but also against themselves: providing high-quality free links that compete for clicks with their own advertisements—thus cannibalising their advertising revenues. In particular, I find that in equilibrium consumers always (at least weakly) prefer to click on at least one non-paid-for link before clicking on a revenue generating advertisement so that some consumers never click an ad at all. That notwithstanding, revenue cannibalisation provides an incentive for quality degradation, even when the provision of quality is costless, and may engender low quality equilibria. When search engines show differentiated advertisements, the incentive to reduce quality is particularly strong. Chapter 4 examines the relationship between the transmittability of information via advertisements and the fee structure used by the advertisement’s publisher. For an advertiser, sending general advertisements with inflationary claims may attract additional consumers with whom it is poorly matched. This is costly for the firm when it must pay for the ads on a per-click basis (i.e. when it must pay for each consumer visit that it receives) since many of its visitors will not purchase. As a consequence, I find that perfect information transmission can always be sustained when adverts are priced per-click. By contrast, when firms pay for advertisements on a per-impression basis or on a per-sale basis, there is no disincentive to attracting poorly matched consumers, and maximum profits are obtained by attracting all consumers with some positive probability of purchase. This feature undermines the existence of fully informative equilibria under such fee structures, and may result in no information transmission being possible at all. Consumers benefit from increased informativeness, but distortions introduced by the market power given to advertisers imply that society may be better-off with no information transmission taking place.

The military has 5 domains of operations: Land, Sea, Air, Space and now Cyber. This 5th Domain is a heterogeneous network (of networks) of Communication and Information Systems (CIS) which were designed and accredited to meet Netcentric capability requirements; to be robust, secure and functional to the organisation’s needs. Those needs have changed. In the globalised economy and across the Battlespace, organisations now need to share information. Keeping our secrets, secret has been the watchwords of Information Security and the accreditation process; whilst sharing them securely across coalition, geo-physically dispersed networks has become the cyber security dilemma. The diversity of Advanced Persistent Threats, the contagion of Cyber Power and insecurity of coalition Interoperability has generated a plethora of vulnerabilities to the Cyber Domain. Necessity (fiscal and time-constraints) has created security gaps in deployed CIS architectures through their interconnections. This federated environment for superior decision making and shared situational awareness requires that Bridging the (new capability) Gaps needs to be more than just improving security (Confidentiality, Integrity and Availability) mechanisms to the technical system interfaces. The solution needs a new approach to creating and understanding a trusted,social-technical CIS environment and how these (sensitive) information assets should be managed, stored and transmitted. Information Assurance (IA) offers a cohesive architecture for coalition system (of systems) interoperability; the identification of strategies, skills and business processes required for effective information operations, management and exploitation. IA provides trusted, risk managed social-technical (Enterprise) infrastructures which are safe, resilient, dependable and secure. This thesis redefines IA architecture and creates models that recognise the integrated, complex issues within technical to organisational interoperability and the assurance that the right information is delivered to the right people at the right time in a trustworthy environment and identifies the need for IA practitioners and a necessary IA education for all Cyber Warriors.