中國大陸截至2007年底，全國人口已經達到13.21億人之多，仍位居世界第一人口大國。但是相較於過去成長的力度，中國人口已經呈現「低出生、低死亡、低成長」的三低時期，使得人口在數量上的成長獲得控制，第13億人口日也延後到二十一世紀的第五年到來，當中最主要的因素就在於中國實施三十多年的計畫生育制度大幅度地轉變了人口數量的成長，但卻也形成了出生性別比失衡的新人口問題。 中國人口之所以成長快速就在於人口政策的方向和穩定性，在1949~1970年期間因為社會主義的肯定和節育政策執行上的不穩定，導致人口在該階段迅速成長，由5億4168萬人驟增到8億2992萬人。所以在1970年代開始注意人口的壓力，於1973年由中國國家人口與計畫生育委員會提出「晚稀少」的計畫生育制度，成功地壓低了人口的成長率和總和生育數。為了進一步在二十世紀末控制在十二億人口之內，1980年中共中央便提出「一胎化」政策至今，讓生產數降低至一名子女來達成目標。如此，中國在人口數量上是獲得了控制，但是性別結構上的品質卻出現了失衡的問題。 出生性別比是指，新生兒中每出生100名女嬰相應有多少男嬰出生，通常範圍會落在103~107。中國在出生性別比上卻出現失衡的情形，根據歷年整體人口、區域、城鄉和孩次的數據比較，性別失衡的情形越演越烈，將導致約2000萬的單身男性找不到另一半的問題。之所以會造成這樣的結果，可以進一步從三大項因素來分析，第一、傳統偏好男孩文化；第二、現代醫學科技的進步；第三、計畫生育工作上出現漏洞等，這將導致婚姻市場的嚴重擠壓，婦女在角色扮演和權利地位上的不平等，社會穩定受到過多單身男性而產生威脅以及新的外來人口移入對家庭社會的衝擊。 有鑑於出生性別失衡的嚴重性，中國在人口政策上也提出相關對策來解決這多年懸而未解的問題。首先，1995年開始的「關愛女孩行動」建立起對女孩友善的環境並且抑制過高的出生性別比。第二，2003年提出的嚴禁非醫學需要的性別鑑定和選擇性別的人工終止妊娠，控制超音波檢測和人工流產的濫用。最後，1984年的「開小口」和2002年的「夫妻雙方均為獨生子女者都允許加間隔生育第二胎」等部分開放第二胎生育的條件。但是政策落實下來，卻未能看見明顯的降低情形。 所以，我們對於中國目前出生性別比的解決方法提出建議，第一、放寬計畫生育政策，計畫生育期限屆滿可以進行調整生育政策與生育意願的衝突城鄉人口政策的分歧。第二、加強社會保障體系，可以透過社區作為單位加強社會保障制度加強養老保險、醫療設施和優生保健等服務，減弱一直以來「養兒防老」的觀念。第三、繼續經濟發展腳步，經由大力發展經濟，使全體人民富裕起來，改變人們的生活方式，轉變人們傳統生育觀念。第四、展開性別平等教育，透過教育的普及和知識的灌輸才能潛移默化地從性別平權導正性別比失衡的問題。第五、建構完善法規，追究刑事責任以及建構更完善的管理監督機制，才能遏止住非法的性別選擇行為。

作為世界上人口最多的國家，中國曾經是世界上人口增長速度最快的國家之一。為了減輕人口過快增長對經濟社會發展的不利影響，中國在20世紀70年代開始實施旨在減少人口數量增長和提高人口素質的人口和計劃生育政策，這項政策的實施以及經濟社會的快速發展，使得中國在短短20多年的時間內走過了發達國家幾百年才能完成的人口轉變歷程。 本研究評估過去中共人口政策的演變，以及對各方面的正負面影響。中國經濟改革開放以後，提倡一胎化政策的實施對中國的人口發展有著重大影響。其最直接的影響是加快了中國人口由高增長向低增長方式的轉變，促進了中國生育率的下降。隨著生育率的下降，給中國的經濟增長帶也來了很強的效應。另外，提高婦女地位、就業壓力的減緩、健康、教育方面也有一定程度的改善。本文透過對人口問題的深入探討，找出問題存在的癥結。對當前經濟和社會發展影響最大的人口問題主要包括幾個：一是人口性別比例失調問題；二是年齡結構變化相伴隨的人口老齡化問題：三是與前兩個問題有密切關係的獨生子女問題：四是四二一綜合症。 / Abstract China is not only the most populous nation in the world, the country was also among one of the fastest population growing countries. To reduce and minimize the negative impacts to economic and society from rapid population growth, China started implementing various population policies to elevate population superiority by decelerating population growth in the late1970’s, after 20 years such policies allowed China made swift and significant economic and society progresses, which is unprecedented among the developed nations, such changes and swiftness might take few hundred years to transform and accomplish. This research evaluates the evolution in China’s population policies, and focus on the positive and negative aspects from implementing such policies. After China opened its door to the world, the realization of “one-child” policy has affected China’s population growth drastically. The one-child policy has directly impacted on the transformation from previous high population growth, to current low growth rate, it also, deceased the birth rate in China. The result of the birth rate reduction also facilitated the current China’s robust economic growth. Furthermore, it elevated women’s social status and lightened the employment competitiveness, and there are significant improvement in health and education. This paper, thoroughly analyze the predicaments in population and attempt to seek the rationale for their existence. The current economic and society issues involved the following: 1. population unbalance in male and female proportions, 2. the change in age structures towards majority elderly population, 3. problems from one-child policy, 4. issues with “four-two-one” syndrome.

一胎化政策起始於1978年，在改革開放政策的年代，作為一項跨時代的政策，它改變了中國人口、社會的發展，也撤徹底底的改變了中國婦女的生命面貌。政策的出發點是為了國家的需求，中共宣稱，一胎化政策不但可以解決中國社會沈重的人口壓力，也可以使婦女藉由降低再生產壓力而投入生產，從而提昇婦女地位。表面上看起來，國家發展需求與重視女性地位的性別意識型態需求在一胎化政策中得到很好的理論結合。 但是當我們進一步檢視這些政策時，卻發現有許多規定存在著矛盾之處，也許再生產和生產之間的關聯並不是這麼簡單的加減問題，政策中所呈現的婦女與國家關係也不如想見的客觀中立，在許多政策無法顧及或自圓其說之處，傳統的父權觀點隱隱然出現在政策的判準中發揮影響。本文企圖自女性主義立場論的觀點出發，以國家生物性發展需求、性別意識型態需求與文化上的父權需求這三股力量，討論一胎化政策中的矛盾與不協調性。發現在一胎化政策中存在著一個邏輯，它希望藉由婦女再生產的降低促進婦女進入公領域的生產，並進而提高婦女地位，如此一來，一胎化政策推行時所面臨到的性別選擇性問題也將因婦女地位提高而達到解決，即便是政策面臨到父權障礙時也是依循這樣的邏輯繼續進行。然而，這種以經濟角度出發的論述其實是一方面是以男性的標準判定性別的生育偏好來自於女性的生產力不足，另外一方面則窄化了再生產的意義，將再生產只等同於生育，忽略了婦女在私領域中所負擔的家務勞動以及人口撫養。國家自認為中立，藉由胎兒性別檢定的禁止將性別選擇性生育的責任移轉到個別的家庭，並且在生產力的論述上將偏好生育的問題本質化，而父權的壓力也至此被零碎化、個別化，成為個別婦女與家庭必須獨自面對的困境。這種過度將經濟與女性地位相聯繫的論述形成中共一胎化政策中一種自相矛盾的說法，無論中共多麼強調對於性別的重視與敏感，但這種矛盾若沒有進一步的解決與釐清，終將成為國家邁向性別主流化發展的障礙。 / One child policy have begin in 1978, in the era of reform and opening to the outside world, it have change the Chinese population, development of the society, and the life of Chinese women in the bottom completely. The starting point of the policy is for the demand of the country, the Communist Party of China declares, one child policy can solve Chinese society in population pressure ,also can make woman by is it produce and then pressure and put into production to reduce, thus promote the woman status . Seem on the surface, it have combined well in the One Child Policy and sex ideology demand that the country develops the demand and pays attention to women's status. But when we look over these policies further, it have a lot of regulation have contradictory place to find, perhaps it’s not such simple question of production and reproduction, the relationship between women and the state is not so good as the objective neutrality wanted to see in the policy, in the place where a lot of policies can't be taken into account or justified oneself, the traditional patriarchy view gives play to in the declaring accurate of the policy to influence indistinctly and rightly. This text attempts take the view of Standpoint Theory, discuss the contradiction and harmony in One Child Policy in three ways: country development, sex ideology and patriarchy in culture.There is a logic in the One Child Policy , it hopes to promote women to enter production of the public field with the reducing of the woman reproduction, improve woman status, thus,the sex selective birth would be solve by improving women status. However, this kind of argument is actually judging women’s production with the male standard , in the other hand, it is insufficient to explain the meaning of reproduction, only equates the reproduction with bearing, have neglected the house work and population that women bear in the private field.The country stand neutrality and transfer the responsibility that the sex selective birth to the specific family , and the pressure of the patriarchy is melted individually, become the predicament that specific woman and family must face alone.

中國是世界上人口最多的國家，公元2000年已達12.6億人，占全球的五分之一強，因此，中國的人口政策及其成敗受到全球普遍的關注。其人口政策50餘年來的發展，呈現著左右搖擺的反覆現象。 　　1971年~1998年實施計劃生育政策期間，人口效益共計少生了3.38億人；經濟效益則為國家和家庭節省了7.4萬億元；社會效益有：1.減緩社會的就業壓力；2.促進教育事業的發展；3.改善健康狀況；4.提高婦女地位，以及其他的資源效益和環境效益等等。 　　計劃生育的負面效應則有：1.「四．二．一」綜合症；2.人口高齡化；3.獨生子女教養問題；4.性別比失調；5.人口素質逆淘汰；6.徵兵困難；7.體壇後繼乏人；8.幹部與群眾之間矛盾日益尖銳。 　　對大陸未來人口政策可能走向的研析： 　　甲案為：全大陸普遍允許雙方為獨生子女的夫婦可以生育二孩，此方案影響最小。城鎮夫婦雙方為獨生子女的概率將從目前不到1％升至2020 年的40％，農村則一直為1％。據預測，2010年總人口為13.8億，2040年達到峰值15.5 億後進入負增長，2050年減至15.2億。 　　乙案為：全大陸城鄉只要一方是獨生子女的夫婦（包括雙方都是獨生子女）可以生育二孩。此方案影響較大，據估計，城鎮夫婦中一方為獨生子女從2000年的15％增至2020年的87％，農村則從1％增加到19％。2010年總人口為13.88億，峰值在2045年將接近15.9億。 　　丙為折衷方案，即在城鎮允許雙方是獨生子女的夫婦、在農村允許一方是獨生子女的夫婦可以生二孩，影響介於甲乙案。即2010年為13.77~13.88億，峰值在2040~2045年約為15.5~15.9億然後進入負增長。 / Presently, China is the most populated country in the world. Its population has reached 1.26 billion in 2000-more than one fifth of the worldwide population. As a result, the outcome of China’s population policy has become an issue of global concern. However, China has been swung back and forth on its "birth control" policy in the past fifty years. 　　During 1971~1998, when Chinese government enforced the "one child" policy, the birth rate has effectively reduced the population growth by 338 million, and a saving of a total of $74 zillion dollars for the government and the people. The society also benefits on: (1.) less pressure and competition on the employment ; (2.) more educational resources for the people ; (3.) more improvement on health condition ; ( 4.) a promotion of social status for women ; (5.) better distribution of other resource and preservation of the environment. 　　The downsides from the practice of the "one child" policy are: (1.) a syndrome from the [4-2-1] family structure ; (2.) aging of the population; (3.) difficulty in discipline the single child of the family; (4.) inappropriate gender ratio ; (5.) reverse selection of population quality ; (6.) difficulty in military draft ; (7) inferior outplays in athletic performance ; (8) confliction between birth control administration officers and the general public. 　　Based on the research, three population policies China may adapt in the future. To be qualified to have two children, 　　A) For families in both villages and cities, allow parent who were both from single child families to have a second child. However, this scheme has the least impact with a predict population of 1.38 billion in 2010. In the long term, the low rate of birth will create a peak population of 1.55 billion followed by a negative population growth after 2040. 　　B) For families in both villages and cities, parents who were either or both from single child family are allowed to have a second child. However, this scheme has most impact with a predict population of 1.388 billion in 2010. In the long term, the low rate of birth will create a peak population of 1.59 billion followed by a negative population growth after 2045. 　　C) For families in cities, parents who were both from single child families, and for families in villages, parents who are either or both from single child family, are allowed to have a second child. However, this scheme has the mediate impact with a predict population of 1.377~1.388 billion in 2010. In the long term, the low rate of birth will create a peak population of 1.55~1.59 billion followed by a negative population growth after 2040~2045.