本論文的整體結構大致分為理論、實踐與檢證三部分，全文共有六章： 第一章，導論中除說明與本論文研究有關的動機、目的、範圍、方法外，還對經常為 人混淆並等同視之的群眾路線與群眾運動，列入概念界定一節中加以釐清。第二章， 從馬克思、列寧及毛澤東的原典著作、講話中著手，篩選出三人對群眾的觀點，並歸 納出其認識群眾的特點，以便探索中共發展出一套特有的群眾路線的思想源流與理論 基礎。 第三章，從群眾路線的內容、運作方式與功能等方面觀察、分析及歸納出群眾路線的 理論意涵，並分析出群眾路線的動員五步驟：幹部下基層聯繫群眾、訊息傳達與溝通 、典型試驗或典型引路、全面動員、總結評估。本章還運用歷史研究法將群眾路線的 實踐經驗分為政權建立前、毛澤東時代和1978年後三個階段，探討群眾路線發展經歷 以及78年後決策環境的變遷對群眾路線的影響。 第四章，分析1978到1988年間中菜有關計劃生育的出版品、文獻、講話和會議資料中 ，是如何運用群眾路線組織部署計劃生育工作，以及如何利用動員群眾的五步驟執行 節育計劃。 第五章，以質的研究法觀察、蒐集和分析計劃生育執行方式的調查訪問資料。本章研 究發現由於群眾路線在城市與農村執行的條件不同，致使計劃生育執行的方式與結果 也大不相同，農村依舊採用「土政策」的做法，與中共各種文獻資料要求改進之處六 相逕庭。 第六章，結論，總結本論文研究結果，發現在公有制籠罩下的中共組織單位對群眾的 控制，是群眾路線能否發動的關鍵性因素。再將研究結果結合中共現況，評板群眾路 線未來可能前景。

本文認為，1950年代馬寅初被批判一事，不論就其性質或時期，都與反右運動不同，只是有時間上一部分的重疊，有必要重新釐清。馬寅初有關計劃生育的主張，並非首倡，中共黨內的毛澤東，中共黨外的邵力子等人，比起馬寅初，在中共建政後對人口問題的重視，在時間點上都比馬寅初要早。毛澤東自始至終，始終強調要有計劃地控制人口。馬寅初所關切的，表面上是人口問題，實際上是中國大陸當時經濟積累的效率，因為這將影響中國大陸工業化的速度。若拉長時間縱深來看，馬寅初事件背後所呈現出來的，是馬爾薩斯主義和馬克思主義對於中國大陸人口研究典範的領導權爭奪戰，歷經四十年，馬克思主義終於取得優勢。而馬寅初作為一位知識份子，與其他同類型的傾左知識份子，在中共建政之後，政治上日漸認同中共，在思想上自覺地馬克思主義化，但多數不為那些更早轉向馬克思主義、掌握了馬克思主義在中國的詮釋權的人所接納，最終，大多在文革以前，便已受到不同程度的排擠和批判。 / This essay will argue that the Ma Yin-Chu incident and the Anti-Rightist Campaign is not the same thing, neither on the period nor on the nature, and he is not the first one who advocated birth control when he announced his article “New Principle of Population” in 1957. Instead, Mao Tze-Dong and the CCP have been promoted birth control several years ago. Besides, the aim of “New Principle of Population” focused on the economical accumulation for industrialization, not for birth control itself. On the other hand, if we consider this incident historically, we can see there are two diachronic trends: One is the struggle of the hegemony of China’s population research between the Malthusism and Marxism, this struggle lasts over 40years since the May-forth Movement, and in1960s’, the winner is Marxism. The other is there were many left-leaning intellectuals who changed their political or philosophical position into the CCP or Marxism since 1940s’, like Ma Yin-Cu, didn’t be affiliated by those intellectuals who had change their position before the “Yan-An Rectification” in 1942. Most of them like Ma Yin-Cu have been criticized before the Cultural Revolution.

中國是世界上人口最多的國家，公元2000年已達12.6億人，占全球的五分之一強，因此，中國的人口政策及其成敗受到全球普遍的關注。其人口政策50餘年來的發展，呈現著左右搖擺的反覆現象。 　　1971年~1998年實施計劃生育政策期間，人口效益共計少生了3.38億人；經濟效益則為國家和家庭節省了7.4萬億元；社會效益有：1.減緩社會的就業壓力；2.促進教育事業的發展；3.改善健康狀況；4.提高婦女地位，以及其他的資源效益和環境效益等等。 　　計劃生育的負面效應則有：1.「四．二．一」綜合症；2.人口高齡化；3.獨生子女教養問題；4.性別比失調；5.人口素質逆淘汰；6.徵兵困難；7.體壇後繼乏人；8.幹部與群眾之間矛盾日益尖銳。 　　對大陸未來人口政策可能走向的研析： 　　甲案為：全大陸普遍允許雙方為獨生子女的夫婦可以生育二孩，此方案影響最小。城鎮夫婦雙方為獨生子女的概率將從目前不到1％升至2020 年的40％，農村則一直為1％。據預測，2010年總人口為13.8億，2040年達到峰值15.5 億後進入負增長，2050年減至15.2億。 　　乙案為：全大陸城鄉只要一方是獨生子女的夫婦（包括雙方都是獨生子女）可以生育二孩。此方案影響較大，據估計，城鎮夫婦中一方為獨生子女從2000年的15％增至2020年的87％，農村則從1％增加到19％。2010年總人口為13.88億，峰值在2045年將接近15.9億。 　　丙為折衷方案，即在城鎮允許雙方是獨生子女的夫婦、在農村允許一方是獨生子女的夫婦可以生二孩，影響介於甲乙案。即2010年為13.77~13.88億，峰值在2040~2045年約為15.5~15.9億然後進入負增長。 / Presently, China is the most populated country in the world. Its population has reached 1.26 billion in 2000-more than one fifth of the worldwide population. As a result, the outcome of China’s population policy has become an issue of global concern. However, China has been swung back and forth on its "birth control" policy in the past fifty years. 　　During 1971~1998, when Chinese government enforced the "one child" policy, the birth rate has effectively reduced the population growth by 338 million, and a saving of a total of $74 zillion dollars for the government and the people. The society also benefits on: (1.) less pressure and competition on the employment ; (2.) more educational resources for the people ; (3.) more improvement on health condition ; ( 4.) a promotion of social status for women ; (5.) better distribution of other resource and preservation of the environment. 　　The downsides from the practice of the "one child" policy are: (1.) a syndrome from the [4-2-1] family structure ; (2.) aging of the population; (3.) difficulty in discipline the single child of the family; (4.) inappropriate gender ratio ; (5.) reverse selection of population quality ; (6.) difficulty in military draft ; (7) inferior outplays in athletic performance ; (8) confliction between birth control administration officers and the general public. 　　Based on the research, three population policies China may adapt in the future. To be qualified to have two children, 　　A) For families in both villages and cities, allow parent who were both from single child families to have a second child. However, this scheme has the least impact with a predict population of 1.38 billion in 2010. In the long term, the low rate of birth will create a peak population of 1.55 billion followed by a negative population growth after 2040. 　　B) For families in both villages and cities, parents who were either or both from single child family are allowed to have a second child. However, this scheme has most impact with a predict population of 1.388 billion in 2010. In the long term, the low rate of birth will create a peak population of 1.59 billion followed by a negative population growth after 2045. 　　C) For families in cities, parents who were both from single child families, and for families in villages, parents who are either or both from single child family, are allowed to have a second child. However, this scheme has the mediate impact with a predict population of 1.377~1.388 billion in 2010. In the long term, the low rate of birth will create a peak population of 1.55~1.59 billion followed by a negative population growth after 2040~2045.

中國為控制龐大的人口，自1979年開始實施計劃生育政策，一轉眼已經過了30年，一群1980年前後出生的獨生子女紛紛邁入婚姻、走入家庭，形成了獨生子女相互婚配的「獨生父母」，也同時造就了有別於傳統中國「發散型」家庭結構的「四二一家庭」。 本研究以此為出發，探究「四二一家庭」結構中的新型家庭關係，並挑戰結構功能論大師帕森斯關於現代化家庭之理論。本文認為，由於夫妻雙方皆為獨生子女，父母要協助子女分擔家務不再分身乏術，三代同堂的擴大家庭將成為中國城市的主要家庭模式，並非現代化理論所認為的核心家庭為主；而在四二一家庭中，親子關係也將居於核心地位，有別於帕森斯所認為的以夫妻軸為主。 筆者於2010年5月親赴北京對10位「獨生父母」進行訪談，深入了解獨生子女從擇偶、新婚、一直到四二一家庭成形所遇到的種種情況，包括夫妻家務分工上的不適應、為人父母後的角色轉換，以及在四二一家庭中獨一無二的天倫樂。 本文最後依據中國2010年第六次人口普查結果及獨生父母的訪談內容，結合各方專家意見，對計劃生育政策做出利弊分析，並探究生父母們在邁入家庭、準備「哺乳」的過程中，對父母的依賴，究竟「斷乳」了沒。 / Abstract In order to control the colossal population in China, the Chinese Communist Party have been implementing the birth control policy since 1979.Thirty years on, more and more children born under the one-child policy have arrived at nubile age. Marriage of only sons and only daughters compose the dual-core family which is different from the traditional Chinese family structure. This text focuses on the dual-core family, to explore the new family relationships and to challenge the Modernized theory of family proposed by T. Parsons. The text is of the opinion that the extended family model with three generations will become the main family structure in urban China as opposed to the nuclear family described in the Modernized theory; the focus of the family will be on the parent-child relationship rather than the conjugal relationship Parsons suggested. The author visited Beijing in May 2010 for interviews with ten “only-child parents”, This granted deeper understanding of the range of circumstances encountered during the process of partner selection, marriage and family formation by adult only-children. These include maladaptation in housework allocation, the role switch after becoming parents and the familial relationships and happiness unique to the extended family structure. In summation, the text combined findings from the sixth Chinese national census 2010, the conducted interviews and the opinions of various specialists and scholars to comment on the pros and cons of the birth control policy and to assess the level of parental dependence of adult only-children in China and their readiness for parenthood.