二十餘年來，兩岸之間經貿、社會與文教交流頻繁，雙方關係已呈現密不可分的趨勢。然而，由於兩岸的特殊情勢，導致政治與經濟、社會發展方向背道而馳，而在某種程度上呈現「制度缺失」的現象，無法將雙方交流互動所產生的合作或問題，以制度化方式予以規範及解決。2008年6月兩會重啟協商，迄今已簽署18項協議，所涉事務範圍廣泛，涵蓋經貿、金融、農漁業、社會、食品安全、核能安全等領域，均與台灣民眾之權益及福祉息息相關。然而，簽署協議並不意謂所規範之事項或欲解決之問題即能完善運作，重要的是，必須由治理層面看待協議內容，方能確實達成協議創立之目的。 然而，迄今探討18項協議之多著重於協議內容之簡述及分析為主，較少由治理層面予以系統性分析。有鑒於此，本文將透過以制度主義探討國際關係之首要理論：國際建制論（International regime）作為理論基礎，探討兩岸協議治理議題。在研究案例上，則選擇18項協議中，涵蓋層面最廣，影響最為深遠的兩岸經濟合作架構協議（Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement），希望在建制治理的相關概念與理論的基礎上，透過深度訪談及過程追蹤等研究方法，探討ECFA的治理成效。為達成此一目的，本研究建立一研究架構，就各項可能變數進行描述與分析，論述ECFA制度性治理內容，及建立評估治理成效指標等，以利對兩岸協議治理研究有初步貢獻，並可作為評估協議成效之實務參考。 / Since June, 2008, Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and PRC’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) have reactivated the cross-strait negotiation. To date, they have held eight Chiang-Chen Talks, signed 18 agreements, and reached two consensuses. These agreements have established important framework and blueprint for cross-strait exchanges and aimed at the well-being of the people on both sides. However, those agreements signed do not guarantee the smooth implementation of policy born out of the talks. It is imperative that we should make a detailed analysis of the content of those agreements from the perspective of governance to help realize the goal of the agreements. Yet most research papers fail to develop a systematic analysis from the perspective of governance by merely emphasizing on the literal description and analysis of articles of individual agreement. Therefore, this research will employ international regime theory, which argues that international institutions or regimes affect the behavior of states and act as the main theoretical underpinning for investigating the issues concerning the governance aspect of those agreements. This research chooses ECFA (Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement) as the object of research, because it is the most important, comprehensive and influential agreement among the 18 agreements. In order to assess the effectiveness of governance element in ECFA, this research establishes a research framework which is capable of describing and analyzing relevant variables and set up evaluation indicators. Information was obtained through in-depth interview and process-tracing to evaluate the accuracy and applicability of above-mentioned research framework, and through study and analysis it has proven that this research framework can act as a reference for evaluating effectiveness of governance in agreements when put in practice.

所謂「預測」，是建立在對特定事物認識的基礎上所做出的預估，而預測的準確與否關鍵即在於預測者對資訊的掌握程度。長久以來，由於未來一直是人類亟欲征服與掌握的目標，因此預測也成為一普遍存在的行徑。有別傳統預測方法的諸多限制，「預測市場」藉由網路參與者主動參與價格為訊息加總等特色，可以更全面的涵蓋不同來源的資訊並進一步轉換為一個量化的指標，以達到更準確的預測。本研究藉由「未來事件交易所」中兩岸相關協議的個案分析，發現市場在預測的過程當中，價格除了藉由公開資訊的反映出來以外，其中亦包含了大量私人資訊的反映，兩者反映所有資訊次數的比例大致維持著4：6的關係，而這結果也代表了在兩岸議題當中資訊並未大幅被揭露，欲準確預測事件的結果仍須多方仰賴私人資訊的貢獻。此外，根據個案分析的結果，本研究也發現兩岸協議確實適用於兩岸議題的應用。 / Prediction is an anticipation based on specific events. The key point of correct prediction depends on the level controlled by predictors. For a long time, future has been a target for human to control and overcome. Thus, prediction becomes a way to explore future events. “Prediction markets” is different from traditional way. It gets rid of many restrictions. It transfers all diverse information from participators into a quantification index to predict more correctly. This research analyzed by Cross-Strait Agreements on Xfuture.com finds that market price is reflected by not only public information but also private information. The ratio of public information to private information is 4 to 6. The result indicates that information is not disclosed completely in Cross-Strait Agreements. By solving this problem, we should use private information to predict more precisely. Furthermore, Cross-Strait Agreements certainly applies to Cross-Strait Affairs according to this paper.