本研究建構一社會網路互動下的新凱因斯動態隨機一般均衡模型，探討效用基礎下波茲曼分配背後的網路結構，以及，社會網路對新凱因斯動態隨機一般均衡模型參數的影響。根據本論文模擬結果，效用基礎下波茲曼分配背後所隱含的社會網路結構呈現局部區域性連結拓璞，此結論與熱力學對波茲曼分配中粒子互動方式的假設相同，然而，區域性連結之網路結構（如環狀網）並非目前實證研究所觀察到的網路型態（如冪分布網路或高群集係數之小世界網路），故吾人是否得以直接利用效用基礎下波茲曼分配來描述社會上人與人之間的互動現象必需更忱慎考量之。另外，社會網路互動也將使新凱因斯動態隨機一般均衡模型之參數估計產生偏誤，依本研究估計結果觀之，只要加入社會互動，總合需求曲線中實質利率之參數估計將為正號，即實質利率對產出缺口的影響為負向影響，也就是文獻上的投資儲蓄迷思(IS puzzle)，若進一步觀察社會網路結構對該實證迷思的影響則可發現當社會網路群聚程度越高時，該估計偏誤將越嚴重。 / We construct a social network-based New Keynesian DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) Model to investigate the underlying social network structure derived from the performance-based Boltzmann-Gibbs model, and thus interpret the process that social network structures affect the estimation bias in the New Keynesian DSGE framework. According to our simulation results, the underlying social network structure derived from the performance-based Boltzmann-Gibbs model should be local. This finding is consistent with the study of thermodynamics, which the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution is based upon, i.e. the local interaction. However, it contradicts not only the purpose of combining the performance-based Boltzmann-Gibbs machine and New Keynesian DSGE model, but also empirical studies of social network structures in the real world. Accordingly, maybe we have to consider further whether the performance-based Boltzmann-Gibbs machine is a suitable tool for calibrating social interaction under the stylized New Keynesian DSGE framework. Furthermore, if we embedded interaction behavior in the stylized New Keynesian model, the so-called “IS Puzzle” can be consequently observed. We also realized that “IS Puzzle” is connected with network structures. The more clustering the network structure is, the more significant “IS Puzzle” would be.

雖然濕地是一種具有生態、經濟與景觀價值的富地資源，但由於這些價值通常具有「有行無市」的特質,因而在市場價格的論斤秤兩過程中，許多重要的濕地便成為市場價格運作下的犧牲品。為了改善此種有行無市的市場失靈現象，本研究利用可獲得使用價值與非使用價值的條件評價法(CVM)分析台北市與台南縣居民對不同濕地保育方案所賦予的價值，並利用有母數與無母數統計方法檢測此種方法可能產生的相關課題，特別是數量變異問題的檢測。本研究主要特色係納入「態度--行為」評價歷程、透過濕地意像分析掌握評價意涵與供給不確定性因素的考量，除此之外，並使用七種不同問卷結構的實驗設計檢測條件評價法的相關課題。 應用分析檢測結果顯示，台北市受訪者願付數額顯著高於台南縣，願付數額的理由不論是台北市或台南縣受訪者「非使用價值動機」皆顯著高於「使用價值動機」，而且發現保育範圍愈大的方案主觀供給機率愈小的現象。相關課題檢測結果顯示， 55公頃關渡濕地保育範圍的維護方案與8135公頃五大濕地保育範圍的維護方案受訪者最大願付數額(WTP)無顯著差異(數量變異問題)、單一濕地維護方案加上四大濕地維護方案之願付數額顯著高於五大濕地維題方案(加總問題)、「濕地信託基金」支付工具評價結果顯著高於「額外稅賦」(支付工具偏誤問題)。如果排除研究程序上的問題，此結果隱含條件評價法仍未能完全滿足數量變異的原則，就本研究實證分析探討，條件評價法未能滿足數量變異原則，供給不確定性是一項重要因素，因此條件評價法課題的改善，供給不確定效果的改善或許是一個可考量的方向。 由於條件評價法仍未能獲得可信的評價結果，而且此方法所獲得的評價結果僅是行為傾向而非賞際行為的結果，因而以條件評價法所獲得評價結果從事濕地政策的應用，在現階段仍不是一個十分恰當的做法。然而，此現象並不縮減條件評價法的重要性，因為現今仍未有比條件評價法更好的研究方法可獲得非使用價值，因此條件評價法的改善、其他評價研究方法或整合條件評價法與其他研究方法等研究發展，或許是評價研究可發展的方向。 / The major object of this study is to applyy the contingent valuation method(CVM),based on the willingness to pay(WTP)concept,to analyze the valuation of different wetland conservation projects among residents in Taipei city and Tainan prefecture. Furthermore,this study uses a set of seven surveys to test the issuess of CVM measurement of wetland conservation total values with parametric and nonparametric tests.In addition,this study incorporates the valuation process basedd on attitude-behavior studies,the images of the wetland and supply uncertainties to debate aboutthese issues． Empirical results indicate that Taipei respondents show significant higher valuation than their counterparts in Tainan,that nonuse value motives are greater than use value motives,and that the greater conservation projects have less subjective supply probabilities.Furthermore,this study finds that the magnitude variation principle does not exist in the CVM process while the aggregation problem and the payment vehicle bias exist.This study considers the supply uncertainty is one important cause of rejecting magnitude variation hypotheses．Future research should consider how to improve the supply uncertainty effect． Because the current CVM fails to achieve reliable results,and the CVM results are behavioral intention,which is different from actual behavior， thus it restricts the wetland policy pplication.However， this situation does not diminish the importance of wetland conservation valuation with the CVM,since no other methods can achieve the measurement of nonuse values． Therefore,how to improve the reliability and validity of CVM，how to integrate CVM and other methods or other valuation approaches may be one imnportant direction for future valuation research.