人民幣是否可能成為另一個重要的國際貨幣，甚至挑戰美元的國際地位？此即本論文的問題意識。對此，本論文進一步提出三個研究問題：一是如何測量當前的人民幣國際化程度？二是如何測量當前的人民幣資本開放程度？三是資本開放對於人民幣國際化程度的影響為何？ 為此，本研究利用主成分分析（PCA），以建構人民幣國際化程度（CIDI）與人民幣資本帳開放程度（CAOI）。其次再利用動態追蹤資料模型──系統一般動差估計法（SGMM），以檢證各項人民幣綜合競爭力對於貨幣國際化程度的影響。最後，本研究進一步梳理人民幣資本帳開放的進程，並結合上述所有實證分析的結果，進而預估漸進資本開放下人民幣國際化的前景。研究對象包括人民幣在內的33種國際貨幣，研究時間則起自1999年歐元成立，迄於2009年。 本論文的發現三：一是，當前人民幣國際化程度進展相當快速。但截至2009年年底，人民幣國際化程度還很低，遠落後於美元、歐元、日圓，以及英鎊等主要國際貨幣。不僅如此，人民幣國際化程度也遜於俄羅斯盧布、巴西里拉，以及印度盧比等開發中國家所發行的貨幣。 二是，過去10年來，人民幣資本帳開放程度不升反降，截至2009年年底，人民幣的資本帳開放程度維持在零，這表示：人民幣是世界上管制最為嚴格的貨幣。相對而言，美元、歐元、日圓，以及英鎊的資本帳開放程度至少都在70％以上，特別是英鎊的資本帳開放程度更趨近於完全開放。 三是，根據SGMM的實證結果顯示，網路外部性、經濟規模、金融市場規模、貨幣穩定度，以及資本開放程度都是影響貨幣國際化程度的關鍵因素。在此基礎上，本研究利用發生機率（odds ratio），以計算不同資本開放情境下，人民幣成為前10大國際貨幣的可能性。結果顯示，如果人民幣的資本帳開放到73％左右，人民幣便可擠進前10大國際貨幣（發生機率為65.6％）。 不過，這只是最為保守的估計。原因有二：一是，隨者中國經濟實力的崛起，以及人民幣預期升值的脈絡下，國際市場對於人民幣的需求原本就很高。此時，人民幣資本帳如果能適時開放，則人民幣的國際持有將大幅增加。換言之，本研究沒有考量到，各貨幣競爭力因素與資本開放程度之間的加乘效果。 二是，資本開放不僅直接對貨幣國際化程度產生影響，也會透過擴大金融市場規模與網路外部性等其他貨幣競爭力因素，間接對貨幣國際化程度造成影響。這間接效果，本研究也沒有考量到。因此，可以預期的是，只要人民幣資本帳能夠漸進開放，人民幣國際化的前景將比本研究所預估的高出許多。 / This paper discusses whether the Renminbi (RMB) will become an international currency, even challenging to the U.S. dollar. In order to examine above question, this paper take the following three steps: 1. By using principal component analyses (PCA), this paper constructs two indices: currency internationalization degree index (CIDI) and capital account liberalization degree index (CAOI); 2. By using dynamic panel data model-system generalized method of moment (SGMM), this paper analyzes factors affect the CIDI, including economic and trade size, financial system, network externalities, confidence in the currency’s value, and CAOI; 3. According to the PCA and SGMM results, this paper calculates the odds ratio of RMB becoming important international currency. The reserch achieved the following results. First, the degree of internationalization of the RMB progress very fast, but the RMB CIDI is still very low, its CIDI far behinds the dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and pounds. Second, over the past 10 years, RMB CAOI is not increased but decreased. Its CAOI is at zero in 2009, this means that: the RMB is the most stringent controls in the world currency. In contrast, U.S. dollars, euros, yen, and pound CAOI are at least in more than 70%. Third, according to the SGMM results, economic size, financial system, network externalities, confidence in the currency’s value, and CAOI are key factors affect the CIDI. Based on this output, this paper forecasted that if the RMB CAOI is open to about 73%, RMB could be squeezed into the top 10 of the international currency. (The odds ratio is 65.6%) It is noteworthy that this is only the lowest estimates. This is because that this paper did not consider the interaction effects of each currency competitiveness factors and CAOI. Therefore, if RMB CAOI continues open, the prospect of RMB CIDI is much higher than estimated by this paper.

經濟理論認為，長期持續的財政赤字將會因貨幣融通而造成通貨膨脹，而且通膨越高的經濟體越容易受到赤字的影響。本文依照Catao and Terrones (2005)的理論模型，以狹義貨幣衡量財政赤字的規模，並據此檢驗1960到2006年間91個國家赤字與通貨膨脹的關係。本文使用Lin (2010)的分量迴歸方法，藉以估計在不同通膨水準下赤字的影響，並且允許兩者之間的動態調整。實證結果發現：當通膨越高，赤字造成的影響將越嚴重；若通膨在低水準，赤字則影響很弱、甚至不會造成任何影響。因此，當通膨越高的時候，維持財政紀律將越能有效達成物價穩定。這層赤字與通膨間關係不會因為考量了其他變數而有所改變。此外，赤字通常在開發中國家影響較強，尤其是在高通膨的時候。最後，在1990到2006年間，卻沒有發現赤字具有任何的通膨效果。 / In economic theory, sustained fiscal deficits might cause inflation by means of money creation, and the economy in a higher inflation level would be more strongly impacted by an increase in deficits. Following the theoretical model of Cat\~{a}o and Terrones (2005), I scaled fiscal deficits by narrow money stock and examined the deficit-inflation relationship in 91 countries from 1960 to 2006. A dynamic panel quantile regression of Lin (2010) was employed, which can estimate the impact of fiscal deficits at various inflation levels and allows for a dynamic adjustment. The empirical results show that fiscal deficits will be more serious as inflation rises, and weakly or not related to inflation if it is at a low level. Therefore, fiscal consolidation would be more effective in price stabilization the higher the inflation. Moreover, the results remain robust while taking other possibly inflation-related factors into consideration. Furthermore, the impact of fiscal deficits on inflation is generally greater in developing countries, particularly when inflation is at a high level. Finally, the inflationary effect of deficits is not detected over 1990--2006.

開放經濟中，匯率可以透過競爭效果及進口型的通貨膨脹抬升價格，或藉由資產負債效果造成通貨緊縮。本文依循 Carranza et al. (2009) 的實證模型，控制美元化程度的影響，並使用Lin (2010) 的動態分量迴歸方法，針對1974Q1-2010Q4期間80個國家，檢驗不同通貨膨脹水準下的匯率轉嫁效果。總體而言，通膨愈高的時候，匯率貶值的擴張效果愈強；但當通膨降低，其強度也隨之減弱。此結果在考慮其他解釋變數或不同貶值情形後仍維持穩健。而當進一步檢視不同國家或期間的匯率轉嫁效果，匯率對通貨膨脹的正向效果，在中低所得國家中普遍較強，但在1995年後減弱，甚至轉為負向。Taylor（2000）的假說，得以在本文大部分的實證結果中證實。 / In an open economy, exchange rate could either increase prices by competitiveness effect and imported inflation, or be disinflationary through the balance-sheet effect. Controlling for the impact induced by the degree of dollarization, I follow the empirical model of Carranza et al. (2009) with a wide panel of 80 countries over 1974Q1-2010Q4. The exchange rate pass-through is investigated at various inflation levels in a dynamic panel quantile analysis suggested by Lin (2010). In general, exchange rate depreciation is more inflationary the higher inflation levels, but the magnitude of pass-through is reduced as inflation become lower. Also, the results are robust with respect to add other explanatory variables or take the depreciation cases into account. Furthermore, to investigate the pass-through across countries or periods, the positive impact of exchange rate on inflation is greater in middle- and low-income countries, but declines and even becomes negative after 1995. The hypothesis in Taylor (2000) is thus confirmed in most part of our empirical results.