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台灣證券市場散戶投資人存活研究彭心玉 Unknown Date (has links)
台灣的證券市場中,散戶投資人佔高達八成的比例,其在市場的參與程度影響證券市場的發展;本研究針對自民國七十九年市場崩盤後,散戶投資人繼續參與市場或離開市場的情況進行長達15年的追蹤分析。
研究發現民國79年2月12日的崩盤跌幅雖然曾高達83%,但是離開市場的比例並不大,高達九成的人在後續的年度仍然繼續進出市場,且其交易次數與平均交易金額都逐漸增強,顯示持續積極參與市場外,也是市場主要的穩定投資人;在分析中可以發現,不論在交易金額或交易次數的分析上,樣本群在市場崩盤後的各波段交易上,反應程度都比整體大盤投資人大。
對存活者、非存活者在崩盤前的交易次數、交易金額分析中,發現存活者為平均交易次數、金額較高者,但是變異數很大,且崩盤後後續交易記錄也顯示存活者群中,存在高交易次數、低單次交易金額與低交易次數、高單次金額兩類,與台灣證券市場散戶實證研究中,周轉率與報酬率呈U型分配,交易次數特別高及特別低的兩群樣本投資人,可能報酬較佳,所以得以存活於市場的情況相呼應。 / 80% investors in Taiwan Stock Market are individual investors. In that, their participations have great impacts to the stock market prosperity. This research focuses on the market crash which has happened since 1990 and tracks the individual investors’ trading activities of the following fifteen years.
In research we found that, although the market index has decreased 83% since Feb.12, 1990, there are 90% individual investors remained trading in the market. Besides, we found the individual investors who keep trading (the survivor) increase both in their trading frequency and in trading amount which shows the survivors play an important role in the stock market during the following years. In further analysis, we also found the survivors had greater responses to the rises and falls of the stock market than total market individual investors’ average.
When we analyze the survivors’ pre-crash characters, which showed survivors were those who had greater average trading frequency and average trading volume. Besides, there also existed big variances in the survivor group. Both evidences showed there existed survivors who were high trading frequency with low trading volume and those who were low trading frequency with high trading volume. These proved the prior research evidence of individual investors’ character that the return and trading frequency distribute as U shape in Taiwan stock market. Investors in highest trading frequency group and lowest trading frequency group could get better return to survive.
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大陸創業板市場發展對台商回台上市之影響分析陳端慧 Unknown Date (has links)
台灣在2008年二次政黨輪替後,提出若干優惠措施以及取消某些法規限制,積極推動台商回台上市,然而深圳證券交易所在2009年發展出創業板,其發展目的是為了讓新興企業有一個高效的籌資平台,深圳創業板的開板給了台商在中國大陸上市的契機與吸引力,因此台商回台上市的意願便可能會因深圳創業板的開板而降低。本研究將以台商的觀點來看,當台商面臨回台上市或在深圳創業板上市兩者之間做選擇時,對於兩者制度面、市場面及環境面來進行比較分析,並藉此來判斷深圳創業板的發展是否會影響台商回台上市的意願。
研究中發現,目前深圳創業板吸引台商之處在於其上市門檻較低,本益比及活絡性表現較好,再加上中國大陸的經濟環境較佳,因此可募集到較多的資金。雖然台灣證券市場現階段在各方面的成長幅度不如深圳創業板突飛猛進,但台灣證券市場是一個較為成熟的證券市場,其多年累積下來的國際性、穩定度及成熟度皆比深圳創業板優越許多。因此,台灣證券市場目前的整體表現仍優於深圳創業板,深圳創業板的開板尚不至於影響台商回台上市的意願。
最後建議未來台灣證券市場應積極爭取與兩岸三地證券市場更密切的接觸,以「區域整合」作為當前的發展方向,若能合作組成「大中華區域證券市場」─雙邊掛牌機制甚或多邊掛牌,以兩岸三地之間的優勢互補,更能達到競合、更甚是綜效的效果。 / After the second return of the governing party in Taiwan, the new government released some beneficial programs and deregulated some laws to attract Taiwanese enterprises to IPO in Taiwan. In the meanwhile, ChiNext opened in 2009 for the purpose of offering an efficient capital-raising platform for those newly-formed enterprises. ChiNext gives Taiwanese enterprises an attractive opportunity to IPO in China, and therefore Taiwanese enterprises may decrease their willing to IPO in Taiwan. This paper starts from the opinion of Taiwanese enterprises who make a decision to IPO in Taiwan or ChiNext, analyzing by the side of regulation, market and environment to determine whether ChiNext will affect the willing of Taiwanese enterprises to IPO in Taiwan or not.
What attracts Taiwanese enterprises to IPO in ChiNext is its excellent PE ratio, high turnover rate and being easy to be qualified. In addition, owing to the rapid growth in Chinese economy, enterprises will raise much more capital in ChiNext. Contrary to ChiNext, Taiwan stock market is such a mature stock market that it could not expand rapidly as ChiNex. Also because of its maturity, Taiwan stock market is much steadier and much more international than ChiNext. To sum up, Taiwan stock market is still more outstanding than ChiNext, the appearance of ChiNext does not affect the willing of Taiwanese enterprises to IPO in Taiwan at present.
Finally, this paper makes a suggestion of "region conformity" as a direction for Taiwan government. Taiwan government should connect with Chinese-area stock market more intensely. If the stock market of Taiwan, Hong Kong and China could form a "Chinese-area Stock Exchange" like NYSE Euronext or other else, it will create an effect of synergy in Chinese-area stock market.
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