目標：本文旨在建構一種新型的模糊回歸模式，解決一类較複雜的模糊回歸問題。 研究方法:推廣局部加權回歸的思想，先從理論上構建新模型；然後借由模拟數據，從多個方面考察新模型的性質，并和其他模型做比較。 發現：局部加權回歸方法結合模糊隸屬度概念，使模糊回歸理論有更多的應用場合。 原創性：目前在模糊回歸領域的主流思想是通過線性規劃等方法來構建模型，而本文另闢蹊徑，首次從局部加權的角度構建了模糊回歸的新模型。 關鍵字: 模糊理論 模糊回歸分析 局部加權 / Objective: This paper aims to construct a new fuzzy regression model to solve a more complex fuzzy regression problem. Method: Build a new model by promoting the idea of locally weighted regression; Using simulated data to compare the new model with other models. Conclusion: The fuzzy membership degree concept combined with the locally weighted regression method makes the fuzzy regression theory have more applications. Originality: At present, the main idea in the field of fuzzy regression is to construct models by means of linear programming. In this paper, a new model of fuzzy regression is constructed from the perspective of locally weighted method for the first time. Keyword: Fuzzy theory、 Fuzzy regression、Locally weighted method

目前，中國大陸最熱門的兩大經濟區域為長江三角洲與珠江三角洲，此兩地吸引眾多外商至當地投資。究竟此兩區域具有何區位優勢能吸引眾多外資，以及此兩地區的優勢有何差異，成為本論文重心所在。本論文主要探討三個主題： 一﹑這兩區域自改革開放以來，區位優勢的消長如何，才造成今日長江三角洲吸引外商投資金額超越珠江三角洲。 二﹑這兩區域有何區位優勢，才能吸引眾多外商至當地投資。 三﹑這兩區域與中國大陸整體平均水準的區位優勢作比較，究竟這兩區域相較於中國大陸整體平均水準具有何優勢，使外商特別關注此兩大地區。 以上問題運用中國統計年鑑的數據資料，以複回歸模型分析各地區的外商投資數據，以得出各項主題的結果。 / Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are both the most famous economic areas in Mainland China nowadays, attracting many foreign capitals to invest. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate what are the advantages in these two areas that attract foreign direct investment, and what are the differences between them. Three subjects are discussed in the present study. First, how did the location advantages rise and fall between Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, thus now there are more foreign investment enterprises located in Yangtze River Delta than in Pearl River Delta since the beginning of China’s ‘Open Door’ Policy. Second, what are the location advantages in these two areas that attract so many foreign investment enterprises to locate in these two areas. Third, what are the unique location advantages in these two areas compared with the average level of Mainland China, so that many foreign investment enterprises pay especially high attention to this two areas. Data of Statistical Yearbook of China are used in the present study, and multiple regression model is adopted to analyze the data in order to obtain the results.

這篇研究是依據中國過去十數年空調器成長數量為dependent variables，用回歸分析找出這段期間各項經濟指標中與空調器成長有相關性者為independent factors，所產生的數學模式用來預測中國在2020欲達成小康社會目標時空調器數量。這個分析的應用是依照大陸現行空調器EER值推算2020電力的尖峰負荷，因為空調是造成尖峰負荷主因，所以推論如果將空調器耗能標準提高20%，可以省下3.6個三峽水力發電的裝置容量(18GWx3.6)。也就是大陸供電裝置容量從現在的400GW，增長到2020的900~1000GW時，可節省66GW的裝置容量。 / Chinese market opened to the world since the establishment of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (SEC) in 1978. Its economic growth starts taking off from 1992 when the 2nd SEC at Shanghai was established. China’s yearly Gross Domestic Products (GDP) growth exceeds 9% on average since then. The trend continued after China entered World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Their GDP reached Rmb18.232 trillions in 2005. Behind the magnificent growth, is the enormous amount of energy and nature resource consumption, thus lead to the environment damage. In 2003, China announced its plan to build a harmonious society (or well-off society or xiao-kang in mandarin) by 2020. This plan outlined the standard of living for the future Chinese. It will be a society composed mainly by the middle class, with a projected 1.5 billion total population, of which 60% will live in the urban area. GDP will grow to 4 times of what it was at 2000; which will make China the third largest economic in the world. However, can China sustain the growth? Is the supply of energy and resource unlimited? Can the rest of the world afford a developed country with 1.5 billion populations without the shortage of nature resource shortage elsewhere? This study reviewed China’s residential and light commercial unitary air conditioning market growth trend from 1995 to 2005. This segment represents 85%~90% of the total Chinese market. The study used several business forecasting methods, to develop a model for estimating the room air conditioner (RAC) and package air conditioner (PAC) market growth till 2020, by considering various social and economical factors such as GDP growth, construction of new buildings, disposal income (DPI) and retail price changes. The forecast can be used to estimate the peak time electrical power demand with the Energy Efficiency Ratio (EER: rated Cooling Capacity in Watt / Power Input in Watt) of RAC and PAC required by the code. Our study found that China should impose a much more stringent EER code in order to reduce peak electrical power demand and avoid supply shortage during the summer, since the economy is predicted to continue to outgrow the power supply. The alternative is to build more new power plant only to meet the summer peak load, while most other time of the year the plants may stay idle. According to Asia Pacific Economics Cooperation, Energy Standard Information System (APEC ESIS) current China EER requirement is around 25% below Taiwan, and most developed countries. Japan Air Conditioning Journal (JARN) and Building Services Research and Information Association from UK (BSRIA) reported that the size of China’s air conditioning market size exceeded Japan in 2003 to become the world second largest in the world, after only the United States. China now manufactures more mini split than any other places in the world. There should be no technical difficulty to adopt the more stringent code to help reducing the peak load demand from air conditioning, since most advance technologies are now available to the market and local manufacturers. Some Chinese air conditioning manufacturers already have a capacity surplus. Exporting their products to the developed countries such as the US and Japan, will require them to meet the EER code of the country of destination. This may speed up the introduction of higher EER design products in the local Chinese market.