在房地產生命週期中，建設公司扮演了土地取得、資金籌措、個案企畫、規劃興建、銷售與管理維護等角色，可說是房地產相關行業中最主要之關鍵；因此包括購屋者、股票購買者、公司管理階層、金融機構、證券管理機構等，皆必須以不同的角度來關切個別建設公司的經營績效，以供其行為決策的參考。 基於此，本研究第一部份先運用模糊理論衍生之模糊綜合評估法對上市建設公司的財務績效等相關指標進行各種綜合評估，並以劃分為「劣」、「普」、「良」、「優」四個級距的方式對公司進行評等。第二部份則搭配定性描述的產品績效予以交叉探討，以進一步了解不同類型建設公司的經營特質，共獲致以下結論。 在公司財務績效評等方面，相較於傳統簡單加權法，模糊綜合評估法因搭配權重的不同而在測試考驗上有較大落差；不過就評估結果而言，幾種評估權重的一致程度皆相當高，其中以同時考量到建築投資業產業特質（如高負債比率、低周轉率、經營規模成長快等）與員工生產力的評等模式穫得了最佳的測試成績。在該評估模式下，八十三年第四季至八十六年第三季各公司的評等結果分別為：「劣」等級包括宏福、宏總等兩家；「普」等級包括潤建、龍邦、長谷、緯城、仁翔等五家；「良」等級包括國揚、太設、太子、長億、寶祥、宏璟、皇普、昱成、春池等九家；「優」等級包括國建、寶建、冠德、華建、三采、尖美、宏盛、宏普、基泰等九家。 而在上市建設公司財務績效與產品績效交叉探討的部份：本研究從公司上市時間、成立時間、資本額，存貨內涵、政府認證等幾個角度做為產品績效的測試基準，有以下三點重要發現： 1.財務表現優良的上市建設公司亦有不錯的股價表現，至於財務表現不良的公司股價表現相對較差。 2.財務表現優良的公司平均上市時問較短，財務表現不良的公司平均上市時間則較長。 3.財務表現優良的公司帳面上的養地比率較高，財務表現不良的公司帳面上養地比率則較低。

傳統E-Learning一直存在學習教材不足的問題。然而，隨著多媒體資訊爆炸時代來臨，有愈來愈多的教育資源可開放使用，再加上資通訊技術不斷創新演進，將不斷改變知識呈現的方式。 本篇論文透過相關文獻探討，提出整合不同學習資源以解決多媒體教材不足的問題。文中以「歷史文學」通識課程為例，分析如何有效地建構輔助教材以支援學習活動。除了從教材設計及學習支援的角度上來分析，研究中更使用Design-Based Research，透過設計不同學習情境來了解教材偏好之議題。 在實作中不但使用 text mining 的技術，也整合了 GIS (Geographic Information System) 提供更創新的互動方式。此外，透過問卷來收集參與師生之使用心得及意見回饋，實際了解學生對教材設計的偏好程度。 研究發現較生動的呈現方式有助於吸引學生，並歸納出認知程度是設計教材之重要成功要素。希望藉由本文實際之發現及建議，提供數位媒體於通識教育的應用個案參考。 / With the different impact of instructions design, such as open educational resources, multimedia explosion and innovative ICTs (Information and Communication Technologies), it offers a possible clue in exploiting from new forms of interaction and knowledge sharing in the Web 2.0 Age. This thesis argues that traditional learning issues in the lack of online multimedia instructions could be solved by integrating various multimedia learning resources, for example in General Education and other learning areas. Therefore, a framework of composing learning contents from the analysis of multimedia learning evolution is presented. By proposing an innovated framework and an analysis of different granularity in learning contents, ontology illustrations and examples in OWL (Web Ontology Language) are discussed. Since the Design-Based Research can help to understand the learning phenomena through developing different kinds of learning materials. We base on the approach of Design-Based Research to evaluate e-Learning presentations and link up the prototype implementation with research objects. The study tries to present some of the problems arising when ICTs are integrated into learning environment and to provide suggestions of how to deal with the problems. Some questionnaires are designed, and it is applied to collect feedbacks of learners and as a suggestion of improving learning instruction. In sum, this experiment provides empirical evidence that shows that, in a general education class for community university students, presenting a material with GIS (Geographic Information System) platform is more attractive than presenting the text contents together with the picture or only the text. The results indicate that a vivid presentation can help students to understand the conveyed concept. While ICTs play an important role in facilitating learning materials, cognitive load issue is so important that should be taken into account seriously. As a result, instructional designers have come to recognize the real need for multimedia instruction from our findings and take care of multiple presentations that are sensitive to cognitive load. Finally, we mainly address that the logistic of General Education must rethink under the innovative concept and the help of ICTs.

台灣加權股價指數(TAIEX)，可以說是台灣最重要的經濟指數之一。在預測的方法中，時間序列分析一直都是熱門的課題，也是最常被使用來研究股價預測的方法。近年來，模糊理論在生醫、財務、社會、電機等各領域都有不錯的應用與發展 。本研究欲透過模糊區間的預測，主要是以時間序列預測台灣加權股價指數，來作為模糊區間精確度的探討，並針對區間時間序列進行模式的建構診斷和預測。最後我們將以2012年第一季(Q1)，每日交易股價指數的最高價與最低價作為實際研究的例子，同時也比較不同預測方法所得的結果。結果顯示模糊區間預測提供不同於傳統預測方法所得的資訊，希望能提供投資者另一種投資的參考。 關鍵字 : 台灣加權股價指數(TAIEX) 、模糊理論、模糊區間、區間預測 / Taiwan Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) is one of Taiwan's most important economic indicators. Among the forecasting methods of time series analysis is always a hot issue on the forecasting methods and is also the most commonly used to make the stock price predictions. In recent years , fuzzy theory makes a great of application and development in various fields , such as , biomedical , financial and social …etc.. For this study, through the fuzzy interval forecasting is mainly based on time series forecasting TAIEX as fuzzy interval accuracy of the construction of diagnosis and prediction of the mode and interval time series. Finally, we will take the daily highest / lowest stock index prices data in the first quarter of 2012 (Q1) for actual research example , and will compare different forecasting methods of the results. The results show that the fuzzy interval forecasting differented from the traditional one on the basis of these information. We hope to offer investors an alternative investment advice. Keyword : Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) 、 Fuzzy theory 、 Fuzzy interval、Interval forecasting.

隨著各種無線網路技術興起至今，各類無線網路技術及產品日益成熟與普及且無線網路的使用者也逐漸變多。而今在各種無線網路的廣泛使用下、時而可見的是當一個行動使用者手持行動裝置身處在一地理環境中，手持行動裝置一經掃描後，常會發現有許多無線網路其覆蓋範圍共同覆蓋在同一個地理區域中，此時多個無線存取點(Access Point)就會發生訊號覆蓋的重疊現象。行動使用者的行動裝置常需判斷是否應該切換到另一個無線網路，此種情形也就是所謂的遞換(Handoff)情形。遞換之產生，代表行動使用者從原本的無線網路區域範圍移動到另一個無線網路範圍，此時若因外界無線電訊號有所變化或是相關網路協定運作出現狀況時、就很容易產生通訊中斷的情形。 在本論文中我們將探討在異質性網路的情況下，根據多種不同的參數、來 設計一個垂直交握(Vertical handoff)的機制。以克服在異質性網路中，時常發生連線中斷之問題。本篇論文主要引使用模糊理論概念來推論其遞換(Handoff)執行的時間點，並且明確的告知終端設備要進入何種網路。 / In this paper, we propose a terminal –control scheme to avoid unnecessary vertical handovers between 3G cellular and WLAN hotspots. The proposed algorithm is a fuzzy logic based algorithm that can adapt itself to the dynamic conditions of the hybrid networks. The scheme can reduce the access delay, unnecessary handoff probability and aid the handoff decision for better connectivity. This handoff algorithm has much better performance than conventional algorithms and can be extended to other heterogeneous networks.

目標：本文旨在建構一種新型的模糊回歸模式，解決一类較複雜的模糊回歸問題。 研究方法:推廣局部加權回歸的思想，先從理論上構建新模型；然後借由模拟數據，從多個方面考察新模型的性質，并和其他模型做比較。 發現：局部加權回歸方法結合模糊隸屬度概念，使模糊回歸理論有更多的應用場合。 原創性：目前在模糊回歸領域的主流思想是通過線性規劃等方法來構建模型，而本文另闢蹊徑，首次從局部加權的角度構建了模糊回歸的新模型。 關鍵字: 模糊理論 模糊回歸分析 局部加權 / Objective: This paper aims to construct a new fuzzy regression model to solve a more complex fuzzy regression problem. Method: Build a new model by promoting the idea of locally weighted regression; Using simulated data to compare the new model with other models. Conclusion: The fuzzy membership degree concept combined with the locally weighted regression method makes the fuzzy regression theory have more applications. Originality: At present, the main idea in the field of fuzzy regression is to construct models by means of linear programming. In this paper, a new model of fuzzy regression is constructed from the perspective of locally weighted method for the first time. Keyword: Fuzzy theory、 Fuzzy regression、Locally weighted method

本研究以Schwartz與Moon（2000）提出的實質選擇權模型為基礎，再引入模糊理論，建立模糊實質選擇權模型。太陽能產業的益通為樣本公司，進行參數估計，並使用蒙地卡羅模擬，估計益通的合理價值。經過敏感度分析更進一步瞭解，影響公司價值最重要的因子為期初收入成長率與成本。 將本模型應用到其他電子產業，發現公司的股價常有遭到市場高估或低估，而偏離真實價值的情形發生。因此本研究建立一套投資策略，並參考模型估計的合理價格為投資的依據，希望能夠賺取價差。策略模擬的結果，獲利能力明顯優於長期持有的方式，也證明了本模型的實用性。 / In this study, we use the real option model from Schwartz and Moon (2000) as the basis, and then combine it with fuzzy theory to create Fuzzy Real Option Model. This study takes one company in solar power industry － E-TON as the sample company to conduct the parameter estimation. We also adopt the Monte Carlo Simulation method to assess the reasonable value of E-TON. After the sensitivity analysis, the results show that initial rate of growth in revenues and cost are the most important factors which influenced on the value of a company. Furthermore, we apply this model to other companies in electronics industry and discover that the stock prices are often overvalued or undervalued by the market. Therefore, we develop a set of investment strategies for people who want to make profits from the difference of prices. The result of strategic simulation shows that profit is apparently better than the way of buying and holding, and it proves the practicability of this model as well.

在資訊爆炸的時代，處於日趨複雜的環境及多重資訊來源管道之下，如何從大量及瑣碎的資訊中找出「重要且有用」的部份，藉以輔助企業或個人制定正確的決策，並降低資訊取得的成本，是資訊人員在設計資訊系統時所必須考量的重要因素之一，因此，資訊篩選(Information filtering)已成為當務之急，更顯示出其重要性。 本研究之主要目的在於整合類神經網路與模糊理論以建立一個通用型資訊篩選之演算法，藉由此演算法可篩選出重要之決策變數，減少資訊的使用量，達到相同或類似的決策結果，進而降低後續資訊蒐集之成本。最後並以四個XOR實驗及國內上市公訂股價預測為例，以測試本研究所開發出來之演算法的正確性及實用性。就XOR實驗結果顯示均能迅速且正確的篩選出重要的輸入資訊；而在股價預測方面，結合基本面分析及技術面分析，根據個別公司的特性及不同的時間點，能夠篩選出其重要的預測變數，可作為股市投資者之重要參考依據。因此，藉由本演算法所開發出來的系統，可以達到資訊篩選的目的。 / At the time of information explosion, how to filter the important and useful parts from a large and trivial information pool is one of the most important factors considering in designing information systems which are used to assist users making right decisions by MIS managers. The purpose of this research is to integrate two technologies. Artificial Neural Network and Fuzzy Theory, to develop a generalized algorithm to filter important information. We hope that using this algorithm we can (1)filter the important decision variables, (2)decrease the information usage, and (3)reduce the cost of information collection. Finally, we made four experiments on the XOR system and stock market forecasting to test the accuracy and practicability of the information filter algorithm. The results of experiments showed that the algorithm could filter the important information correctly and quickly.

自Zadeh(1965)提出模糊集合論，將集合論之二值邏輯擴充至多值邏輯後，使得集合論更為完善，能更精確地描述實際問題之特性。由於教師評鑑的規準建構與測量方法皆深具模糊性，因此有必要針對評鑑問題之模糊特性，選擇適當之模糊理論。本研究以模糊德菲法以整合專家意見以建構評鑑指標，續以模糊層級分析法計算各指標間的相對權重。教師評鑑除考量量化指標外，由於質化指標常以語意詞句(linguistic terms)表達，故採取Chen和Hwang (1992)所提之轉換法將模糊評語集轉換為明確得點值(crisp score)。並利用模糊綜合評估以從事實際教師評鑑之結果分析，其中涉及不同運算算子間的差異比較。 本研究結果發現：教師評鑑指標體系包括教師評鑑指標共可區分為九大類主指標四十一項次指標。其主指標分別為「專業知識」、「教學準備能力」、「教學策略與實施能力」、「教學評量能力」、「運用教學資源能力」、「班級經營能力」、「專業責任」、「校務參與及服務績效」與「人際溝通能力」等九類；「專業知識類」次指標包括「任教科目的專門知識（含提供完整的知識架構）」、「教學方法的專業知識（含清楚教導概念）」、「課程與教材方面的知識（包括清楚目前的學習內容與先前的學習內容及未來的學習內容之間的關連）」、「教學情境的專業知識」、「輔導方面的知識（包括了解學生的心理）」與「學習與發展方面的知識（包括精熟學生背景知識和經驗）」等六項，「教學準備能力類」次指標包括「訂定教學計畫，妥善準備教具」、「根據學生學習需求及課程標準，訂定適合的教學目標」等兩項，「教學策略與實施能力類」次指標包括「教導認知、情意及動作技能的學習與遷移」、「教材展示精確又清楚」、「運用適當教學方法的技巧」、「對教學內容的解釋、舉例之能力」、「教學內容組織能力」、「引起並維持學生的學習動機與注意力」、「教學表達能力」、「傾聽兒童說話的技巧」、「促使學生延展其思考」等九項，「教學評量能力類」次指標包括「評量兒童表現並提供回饋與指導」、「根據評量結果改進教學歷程」、「適時而正確地評估學生進步情形」等三項，「運用教學資源能力類」次指標包括「妥善佈置教學環境」、「運用多樣教學資源」等兩項，「班級經營能力類」包括「輔導學生的能力（包括輔導學生因學業及日常生活所產生的困擾）」、「指導學生遵守生活常規，養成良好行為習慣」、「教室管理的技巧（包括建立愉快的班級氣氛、建立教室常規和程序）」、「有效運用獎懲手段」、「訂定適切的班級規範」與「創造適當的學習環境」等六項，「專業責任類」次指標包括「關懷與瞭解學生」、「工作勤惰」、「教學認真」、「教育信念」、「研究進修」與「敬業精神」等六項，「校務參與及服務績效類」次指標包括「主動積極協助校務推展」、「配合學校行政詳建各項學生檔案」、「對學校活動積極參與」等三項，「人際溝通能力類」包括「同儕教師溝通交流分享互動之能力」、「和家長保持溝通互動以維持良好的親師關係」、「建立和維持師生關係」、「教師能公平、公正地對待全部學生」等四項，合計四十一項次指標。 / Since Zadeh(1965) proposed the fuzzy sets theorem and further developed the theorem from　two-value logic to continues multi-value logic, the assembly theorem had become more completed and was capable of depicting the characteristics of real problem more specifically. Because the standard structure and measuring method of teacher appraisal are both ambiguous, it is necessary to adopt an suitable fuzzy theorem for this ambiguous characteristic of teacher appraisal. The study incorporated the opinions of specialists into structural evaluation indicator based upon Fuzzy Delphi and further calculated the relative weights among each indicator by Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. The teacher appraisal not only need to quantify the indicator but also to qualify them using linguistic terms to express. Therefore, the study adopted the Chen-Hwang (1992) transfer method to transform the ambiguous evaluation terms into specific crisp scores and used the composite of fuzzy evaluation to engage the analysis of real teacher appraisal involving differentiated comparison among individual operants. The outcomes of the study demonstrated that the indicator system of teacher appraisal including teacher appraisal indicator consist of 9 major indicator and 41 minor indicator. The 9 major indicator were professional knowledge, capability of teaching preparation, teaching strategy and implementation ability, capability of teaching assessment , capability of employing teaching resource, capability of class management, professional duty, involvement of school managing and service achievement, and capability of interpersonal communication. The 6 sub-indicator in the professional knowledge category includes professional knowledge of the specific discipline with a comprehensive knowledge structure, professional knowledge of teaching methods included a lucid teaching concept, professional knowledge of class and teaching material included understanding of the connection between the current and future learning contents. professional knowledge of teaching situations, professional knowledge of consulting included understanding of student psychology and professional knowledge of learning and developing included awareness of student background knowledge and experiences. There were two sub-indicator in the capability of teaching preparation (making a teaching agenda and preparing teaching tools, and planing a proper teaching goal based upon student learning need and class standard. The 9 sub-indicator in the teaching strategy and implementation ability were, understanding of guidance and learning and transferring of mental and physical skills, demonstration of teaching material precisely and clearly, employment of proper teaching skills, the interpretation of teaching contents and exemplification faculty, ability to organize teaching contents, inspire and maintain learning motivation and attention of student, faculty of teaching expression, listening skills concerning the child talk, and stimulate the extension of student thinking. The 3 sub-indicator in capability of teaching evaluation were, evaluation of child perfor-mance in order to render guidance and feedback, rescheduling the teaching agenda according to the evaluation outcomes, and accurately and timely evaluating student progression . The capability of employing teaching resource category consisted of implementing teaching environment congruently and adopting diversified teaching resources. The 6 sub-indicator in capability of class management were faculty of student guidance (consulting the student problems causing by class-learning and everyday activities), lead students to fellow the normal rules and to keep righteous behavior habits, class room managing skills ( establish an amicable classroom atermosphere and the classroom guidelines and procedures), proper employing award/ punish system, making the proper classroom paradigm, and create suitable learning environment. The 6 subindicator in professional duty were concerning and understanding students, working habits, teaching sincerity, teaching believe, advancing research, reverence to occupation, The 3 subin-dicator in involvement of school administration and service achievement were, actively assisting the school administration to implement, cooperating the school administration to establish the student records, actively engaging the school activities. The capability of interpersonal communication category composed of 4 subindicator, capability of communicating and interacting with teaching colleagues, capability of communicating and interacting with student parents and maintain a good teacher-parent relationship, establishing and keeping the teacher-student relationship, treating all student with equality and fairness. The grand total of sub-indicator were 41.