中國大陸隨著經濟快速發展，石油能源需求成長迅速，導致石油進口依賴增加，石油需求量日益大於國內原油產量，對進口原油的依賴成為中國國家安全的潛在威脅。為鞏固石油安全，除需不斷向外擴張石油的來源管道外，更需儘速調整國內能源消費結構，提昇能源使用效率。本文以石油安全的政治經濟途徑來看中國對外石油政策，探討影響中國石油安全的因素。分析究竟是「由外而內」(outside-in)，還是「由內而外」(inside-out)層面的因素制約了中國對外石油政策的走向。本文認為，依賴國外石油供應本身並不會造成中國石油安全的威脅，主要的威脅來自於對日益增長的能源消費缺乏明顯改善能源效率的機制。長期而言，改善國內能源治理才是一種有效的而且是徹底改善中國能源安全處境的根本途徑。基於這種觀點，中國必須更廣泛的，儘可能的善加利用各種國際資源，來提升國內能源使用效率。從戰略層次來看，其他各國也會受益於中國的努力。 / Mainland China's rapid economic development has brought rapid growth in oil energy demand, that has outstripped domestic sources of supply, causing increased reliance on oil imports. China's reliance on oil imports to satisfy its oil requirements has become the potential threat to the national security. In order to secure its oil security, mainland China need to constantly expand external oil energy sources. Besides, there is even greater need to speedily adjust the domestic energy consumption structure and utilising energy efficiently within china. This paper focuses on the Chinese foreign oil policy based on the political-economic approaches to oil security. The research problem of this paper is : What's the real factor that "constraint" Chinese foreign oil policy, "outside-in" or "inside-out"? The conclusion of this paper is that dependence on foreign sources of oil supply is not in itself a threat to China's oil security; the key threat is ever-growing consumption without significant improvement in erergy efficiency. In the long term, improved domestic energy governance is one effective and indeed essential route for China to improve its overall energy situation. In this concection, China must work to make as extensive use of international resources as possible for the sake of promoting more efficient use of energy in the country. At a strategic level, the rest of the world stands to benefit from progress in Chinese efforts.

這篇研究是依據中國過去十數年空調器成長數量為dependent variables，用回歸分析找出這段期間各項經濟指標中與空調器成長有相關性者為independent factors，所產生的數學模式用來預測中國在2020欲達成小康社會目標時空調器數量。這個分析的應用是依照大陸現行空調器EER值推算2020電力的尖峰負荷，因為空調是造成尖峰負荷主因，所以推論如果將空調器耗能標準提高20%，可以省下3.6個三峽水力發電的裝置容量(18GWx3.6)。也就是大陸供電裝置容量從現在的400GW，增長到2020的900~1000GW時，可節省66GW的裝置容量。 / Chinese market opened to the world since the establishment of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (SEC) in 1978. Its economic growth starts taking off from 1992 when the 2nd SEC at Shanghai was established. China’s yearly Gross Domestic Products (GDP) growth exceeds 9% on average since then. The trend continued after China entered World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Their GDP reached Rmb18.232 trillions in 2005. Behind the magnificent growth, is the enormous amount of energy and nature resource consumption, thus lead to the environment damage. In 2003, China announced its plan to build a harmonious society (or well-off society or xiao-kang in mandarin) by 2020. This plan outlined the standard of living for the future Chinese. It will be a society composed mainly by the middle class, with a projected 1.5 billion total population, of which 60% will live in the urban area. GDP will grow to 4 times of what it was at 2000; which will make China the third largest economic in the world. However, can China sustain the growth? Is the supply of energy and resource unlimited? Can the rest of the world afford a developed country with 1.5 billion populations without the shortage of nature resource shortage elsewhere? This study reviewed China’s residential and light commercial unitary air conditioning market growth trend from 1995 to 2005. This segment represents 85%~90% of the total Chinese market. The study used several business forecasting methods, to develop a model for estimating the room air conditioner (RAC) and package air conditioner (PAC) market growth till 2020, by considering various social and economical factors such as GDP growth, construction of new buildings, disposal income (DPI) and retail price changes. The forecast can be used to estimate the peak time electrical power demand with the Energy Efficiency Ratio (EER: rated Cooling Capacity in Watt / Power Input in Watt) of RAC and PAC required by the code. Our study found that China should impose a much more stringent EER code in order to reduce peak electrical power demand and avoid supply shortage during the summer, since the economy is predicted to continue to outgrow the power supply. The alternative is to build more new power plant only to meet the summer peak load, while most other time of the year the plants may stay idle. According to Asia Pacific Economics Cooperation, Energy Standard Information System (APEC ESIS) current China EER requirement is around 25% below Taiwan, and most developed countries. Japan Air Conditioning Journal (JARN) and Building Services Research and Information Association from UK (BSRIA) reported that the size of China’s air conditioning market size exceeded Japan in 2003 to become the world second largest in the world, after only the United States. China now manufactures more mini split than any other places in the world. There should be no technical difficulty to adopt the more stringent code to help reducing the peak load demand from air conditioning, since most advance technologies are now available to the market and local manufacturers. Some Chinese air conditioning manufacturers already have a capacity surplus. Exporting their products to the developed countries such as the US and Japan, will require them to meet the EER code of the country of destination. This may speed up the introduction of higher EER design products in the local Chinese market.

由於石化能源的蘊藏量有限，各國政府目前以能源的安全供給與環保的使用做為主要的能源政策，經過各國公部門與私部門多年來的努力，許多替代能源的技術雖然開始商品化，但實際上對於傳統石化能源依賴度的減少，仍舊有限。反觀節能技術雖然表面上不如屬於”開源”概念的再生能源響亮，但技術的成熟度與產業化對於減少石化能源依賴的貢獻度並不亞於開源的效果，尤其許多發展中的國家短期內勢必無法負擔新的再生能源技術所要付出的昂貴能源費用，能源管理服務業所能提供的節能效果，可以同時解決能源效率低落所造成的浪費以及環境的衝擊。 而能源管理服務業重點在於節能，歐洲與日本市場無論是民眾或是政府在開發替代能源與節約能源的議題上之成果有目共睹，但反觀耗能最高的美國、發展中的中國，節能議題相對來講更形重要，這與台灣的狀況相當類似，因此本研究期望經由法制政策面、產業面以及智慧財產佈局狀況，探討美國與中國之能源管理服務業之現況，並與台灣本身能源管理服務業之發展做比較，提出能源管理服務業未來發展上的建議。 1. 能源管理服務業不宜將有限資源過分集中於發展太陽能與風力發電技術 2. 以美國市場為鏡，以中國大陸能源管理市場為目標 3. 積極從事中國大陸能源管理服務業相關技術之專利佈局 4. ”中央能源管理服務系統”概念的導入-節能減排的技術與服務的創新 5. 發展能源管理服務業住宅之應用 6. 創新的融資模式 7. 人員的培訓與教育 / Due to the limited deposits of fusil energy, the safety and environment protection of energy use ate the most two crucial issues among the countries. After decades of development, alternative energy commercialization successfully started in developed countries. Nevertheless, it’s still not material enough comparing to the energy consumption now days. However, the effect of the energy efficiency technologies is far more practical for developing countries that do not have enough budget for alternative renewable energy research and development. With effective energy management, the Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) can reduce significantly the waste of energy and the influence to the environment while mitigate the impact of the economical growth of emerging countries. ESCOs profit from the energy conservation of their clients by enhance the energy efficiency in various categories including utilities, government, industrial and commercial sectors. According to present study, European countries and Japan in Asia have already developed outstanding environmental friendly policies both in public and private sectors. On the other hand, highly energy consumption country like United States and rapidly growing China just started to deal with this global warming problem and hopefully can still maintain the economy growth at the same time. Undoubtedly, we face the same issue here in Taiwan. As a result, this study is trying to gather and analyze information about ESCO industry in United States, China and Taiwan from three aspects, governmental policies, industry environment and intellectual property strategies to conclude as well as raise opinion and suggestion about the future development of ESCOs. This study concludes in following opinion and suggestion, 1. ESCOs shouldn’t emphasize all their resources to conduct Solar and Wind power technologies instead of energy efficiency technologies. 2. Learn the track of ESCOs in United States and focus on the market in China. 3. Aggressively develop intellectual property strategies about ESCO related subjects in China. 4. Introduce the concept of “Centralized Energy Management System” and encourage innovation of law carbon discharge and high efficiency technologies. 5. Develop ESCO model in residential application. 6. Develop creative fund raising tools for ESCOs. 7. Invest in education and training program related to ESCO industry.