確定給付制的退休金計畫，退休金成本提存的適當與否，關係到基金長期的財務健全及未來員工權益的保障，而我國公務人員退撫基金關係到廣大公務人員的權益，也影響到政府的財政支出，所以對公務人員退撫基金更有精算的必要，以確保提撥率之適當而不至於對政府財政增加額外負擔。 本論文從人口面的角度出發，以我國公務人員退休撫卹基金為實證分析之研究對象，探討人口面的假設對於公務人員退撫基金提撥率，未來各項給付支出的影響，包括從經驗資料中取樣，探討大小不同的樣本建立之服職表，於計算提撥率的差異，並利用混成模型建立新進成員假設，以開放團體模擬基金成員結構，在某些固定假設之下，模擬未來五十年的基金資產與現金流量情況。 根據本研究結果指出，利用不同取樣所建構的服職表，計算出之提撥率差異甚大，顯示小型的退休金計畫並不適宜以自身的經驗資料作為精算評價的基礎。另外，以常態分佈的混成模型建立公務人員新進假設，在人數設限成員群體的假設下作開放團體模擬的結果，顯示公務人員年齡結構在未來有逐漸老化的趨勢，在本文所採的假設下，基金資產將先增後減而於民國121年破產。在現行的公務人員退休撫卹制度下，要避免基金破產之情況發生，唯有提高提撥率、提高基金資產報酬率、或壓低薪資成長率。 第一章 緒論 第一節 研究動機與目的 第二節 研究範圍與限制 第三節 研究架構與內容 第二章 退休金精算考慮之因素 第一節 退休基金精算系統的概念及文獻回顧 第二節 精算假設 第三節 精算成本法 第三章 基金成員結構分析的理論基礎 第一節 服職表的編製 壹、 模型建立 貳、 修勻方法 參、 程式演算過程 第二節 混成參數模型的建構 第三節 基金成員新進參數模型的建立 第四節 基金成員新進、脫退隨機過程 第四章 公務人員退撫基金精算模擬 第一節 公務人員退撫基金給付規定 第二節 公務人員退撫基金精算評價系統簡介 第三節 公務人員退撫基金精算評價之實證 壹、 取樣差異對於提撥率的影響 貳、 開放團體模擬基金成員結構和財務預估 第五章 結論與建議 第一節 結論 第二節 對後續研究的建議 附錄A：估計粗脫率之程式 附錄B：修勻程式(Whittaker法) 附錄C：估計常態混成模型參數之程式 附錄D：公務人員新進成員年齡、職等分佈模擬之程式 附錄E-1：服職表1 附錄E-2：服職表2 附錄E-3：服職表3 附錄E-4：服職表4 附錄E-5：服職表5 附錄E-6：服職表6 附錄E-7：服職表7 / The adequacy of the plan contribution for a defined benefit pension scheme is directly related to its financial soundness and the plan member’s benefits. Due to uncertainty of the plan’s turnover, the service table plays an important role in actuarial valuation and cash flow projection. In this study, Taiwan public employees retirement system is studied to monitor the solvency issue due to bias in selecting the service tables. Tai-PERS is designed to provide retirement and ancillary benefits to 271,215 government employees. Its financial soundness is especially vital to the government annual balance. The plan contribution and projected cash flows of Tai-PERS are investigated using various sampling results. The distribution of the new entrants is assumed to follow the mixture model to describe the recruiting results. Then dynamic simulations under the open group assumption are performed to predict the future fund assets and cash flows. The results show significant differences in employing various service tables. Hence selecting proper demographic assumptions is particular important in pension valuation. Under our approach, the workforce of Tai-PERS is aging given the current plan population. Based on the given scenario, the projected plan assets increase and then decrease to be insolvent in 2032. Some interesting results are also discussed.

住宅價格，在自由市場機制的放任下不斷攀升，政府以「分開計價」策略介入市場，揭露產權分配資訊，目的在保障消費者，避免購置過多的「虛坪」，並降低住宅價格負擔。本文試圖從產權分配的基本面，以「分開計價」政策，來探討房價與「虛坪」之間的關係問題，不同以往文獻以政治、社會與經濟面來分析高房價問題。如何分開、如何計價、又何謂虛坪，為本文研究動機。 如何分開產權的研究顯示，「專有部分」與「共有部分」需有合理規劃原則，方能免於購置虛坪。其方法宜採用「共有部分」五項目分配法，將共有部分之小公共設施、大公共設施、機車位、車道與車位分別單獨登記建號，再依主建物比例來合理分配共有部分；應禁止使用之分配規劃方式分別為：(1)地上層與地下層二分法、(2)各棟小公混合後再分配法、(3)機房併入主建物分法。 如何分開計價的推演方法顯示，除分析階層程序法不適用外，其建築體積成本法、蒐集與檢驗市場法，都在可接受範圍內。研究也顯示，虛坪雨遮准予登記但不予計價，符合市場、供給成本與需求認知。此外，僅以主建物計價，符合需求者的期待，並與國外僅以「專有部分」計價概念相符，資料顯示，國外不動產每單位的價格，乘上72.86%後為本國價格，此結果將可降低研究國內外不動產價格比較上的估價誤差。因此，產權「主建物比」較「公設比」資訊的揭露，更能避免購置過多「虛坪」，降低住宅價格負擔。 / The government adapts a policy of “separated prices in property rights” to reveal the secrets under distribution planning of property right, aiming to protect consumer from buying too much” virtual property rights” and in order to reduce housing burden. This study starts from a fundamental aspect in distribution planning of property rights to figure out the relationship between housing prices and virtual property rights, which is different from the political, social, and economical-based in history dissertations. Motivations of this study are to analyze what virtual property is and to explain how to separate and count the price of property. This research indicates that property distribution should be reasonably arranged in private units and public elements. Thus, problem of virtual property rights is avoided. The distribution method is followed: The entire public property rights should be detailed separately planning as an individual public facilities, large public facilities, motorbike parking, car parking, and basement driveway to the ground floor’s area. Completely inappropriate approaches are to merely separate on the floor or the basement space, and the machine room belongs to main building. Except analytical hierarchy process method, cost approach of building volume method and collect-check method are appropriate in applying separated prices in property rights. Moreover, the virtual property rights of rain cover cannot be charged but be registered. It corresponds with the situation of market pricing, supply costs and demand. The concept of charging merely in main private units reaches the expectation of the demanders, which equals to the foreign concept. According to data, in Taiwan, per unit real estate price is 72.86% times to foreign one. This result will reduce the mistakes of estimation in comparing prices. Consequently, the more information about ratio of main private units is revealed than public elements one , the less expense consumers have to face.