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地方派系、社會運動與環境治理:以八輕在雲、嘉設廠決策分析為例 / Local Faction, Social Movement and Environmental Governance: Taking the 8th Naphtha Cracking Project for Example.呂季蓉, Lu,Chi-Jung Unknown Date (has links)
八輕的興建由於具備提振經濟發展的功能,受到熱烈歡迎;卻也因為其對環境生態影響甚鉅,引發當地居民的反對聲浪,以及全國各地的環保團體串連抗議,導致進度延宕。這種經濟與環保衝突的鄰避型設施,在廠址的選擇上,因為必須要滿足社會大眾的需求,而成為環境決策相當重要的一環。只是,同樣渴望經濟發展的雲林縣與嘉義縣,為何八輕最後會選擇落腳雲林而非嘉義?決策過程中的利害關係人又是如何互動?研究結果發現,雖然政商聯盟在中央決策場域上佔有優勢,然廠址抉擇的關鍵仍在於地方的政治生態。嘉義黃林兩派對立的政治生態,讓主政黃派在爭取開發案上,因受到林派為反對而反對的掣肘,中油倍感經營不易而退出;在雲林張派獨大的情形下,沒有足以抗衡的反對勢力,而有利於八輕的進駐。此外,無論在中央或地方的層級,環保團體都企圖在政治力的夾縫中求生存,以阻擋政商聯盟的不正義開發。地方民眾則因利益不同而選擇與派系或環保團體結盟。 / The building of 8th Naphtha Cracking Project is so popular because of its function of promoting economic development. However, local residents have great opposition to it because of its giant influence on environment. Furthermore, the series of representations from the environmental groups have made the work progress at a very low pace. The siting of nimby facility which causes the conflict between economic development and environment protection has become an important part of decision making because it has to satisfy all kinds of needs in the society. Then, we may wonder why 8th Naphtha Cracking Project chooses Yun-lin County instead of Chia-yi County since both of them are eager to develop their own economics, and how the stakeholders interact during the decision making process. The study finds out that politicoeconomic coalitions control the national political arena, and they seem to monopolize decision making process. But the local political ecology is the key to siting. In Chia-yi County, Huang Faction is in confrontation with Lin Faction. Although Huang Faction makes efforts to win the developing project, Lin Faction just protests without particular reasons. Finally, CPC gives up the project because it is so difficult to run business in this situation. On the other hand, Chang Faction is so dominant that there is no political opposition movement in Yun-lin County. And that fosters the coming of 8th Naphtha Cracking Project. In addition, no matter in central or local level, environmental groups try to influence policy to prevent the unjust development from politicoeconomic coalitions. And the local residents enter into strategic coalitions with factions or environmental groups due to different interests.
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資訊扭曲在英國選民脫歐抉擇之角色 / The Role of Information Distortion in the Brexit Referendum林琮紘, Lin, Tsung Hung Unknown Date (has links)
2016年的英國脫歐公投,最終以51.89%比48.11%的差距,決定了英國脫歐的命運。各界紛紛揣測各種可能造成民眾投下脫歐一票的原因,包含個人經濟狀況、政黨認同、受民粹操控、反菁英、對歐洲認同等。本文針對既有研究中尚存在之空缺,聚焦「議題投票取向」對選民投票抉擇的影響,探究脫歐陣營對資訊的扭曲是否對選民的投票抉擇有顯著影響。論文就脫歐派針對國民健保、移民、脫歐後的英國對外經貿、失業率、勞工權益保障與是否能無條件持續享有歐盟單一市場好處這六項議題,透過「二分勝算對數模型」進行分析,從個體層次行為來瞭解資訊扭曲對選民在脫歐公投中投票行為的影響。
研究結果顯示,在移民潮來襲、民眾高喊反全球化與選民不安全感高漲的大環境背景下,脫歐陣營對選民所關心之議題的煽動與對資訊的操控使選民在做出投票抉擇時受到明顯誤導。此外,模型結果亦顯示,選民的個人社經背景與心理態度認知同樣對選民投票行為產生影響。總結而言,本研究透過微觀層次的分析,針對促使選民投下脫歐一票的因素做出深入探討,並以「資訊扭曲」作為重要變數,補充議題投票相關研究之不足。 / In the Brexit referendum held in June 2016, 51.89 per cent of the voter voted Leave and 48.11 per cent voted Remain. The result sealed the fate of the UK as an outsider of the European Union. While the reasons behind voter’s choice to leave the EU remain disputed, individual voter’s socio-economic status, party identification, populism, anti-elite mood, and identity toward European were among the most frequently listed factors. In order to fill the gap that existing researchs has left, this thesis focuses on the significance of “issue voting” in voting behavior. It discusses if the distortion of information by the Leave campaign had a significant impact on people’s voting choice. It uses the “logistic regression model” to analyse six issues brought about by the Leave campaign. They include the NHS, immigration, trading arrangements with other nations, unemployment, working conditions for British workers, and unconditional maintaining of all the benefits from the EU. By focusing on the individual level, I try to investigate how the distortion of information has impacted upon people’s voting behavior in the Brexit referendum.
The study shows that against the background of an increased flow of immigrants and heightened anti-globalization mood, voters had a strong sense of insecurity. Under such circumstances, the Leave campaign exploited the opportunity to incite voters on issues they cared most about, manipulated information during the demagogic campaign, and misled people on their voting decision. In addition, the model also demonstrates that voters’ socioeconomic status and mental cognizance have the same effect on people’s voting behavior. In the nutshell, this thesis uses micro-level analysis to investigate voter behavior in the Brexit referendum. It brings in “information distortion” as a key variable in explaining voter behavior, a variable largely neglected in the existing literature on issue voting.
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