隨著各行各業的飛速發展、科技的不斷進步，一般的公司行號、工廠及現代化的建築對於電力需求大大增加。但是在有限的電力資源下，有時候一到用電高峰時期，很難滿足各行各業的用電需求，因此難免會出現很多地方在用電高峰期跳電的情況。電力公司為了更加有效的分配電力，提出所謂時間電價的概念，和用戶實現簽訂各自的契約容量，將這個契約容量作為每個月分配給各個用戶的最大電量標準。對於用戶來說，若選擇相對較低的契約容量，其所需要負擔的基本電費會較低。然而，當用電量超過契約容量時，用戶可能需要支付非常高額的罰款；若選擇相對較高的契約容量，雖然其支付高額罰款的機率會降低很多，但是所需要負擔的基本電費會增多。因此，對於電力公司和用戶而言，使用時間電價系統，來選擇一個適當的且最佳化的契約容量，已然成為一個非常重要的課題。本文介紹如何用分形布朗運動的模型，來描述用戶用電量趨勢，同時介紹了如何估計分形布朗運動模型中的各個參數。本文也介紹如何建立每月總電費期望值的估計方程式，並利用估計出來的用電量分形布朗運動模型來搜尋最佳化的契約容量。最後，本文以美國密西根州的安娜堡的居民住宅大樓用電量為數據資料作為研究的實例，進一步的提出並論證了選擇最佳化契約容量的方法。 / Over the last few decades, the advances in technology and industry have significantly increased the need of electric power, while the power resource is usually limited. In order to best control the power usage, a so-called Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing system is recently developed so that different rates over different seasons and/or weekly/daily peak periods are charged (this is different from the traditional pricing system with flat rate contracts). An important feature of the TOU system is that the consumers have to pre-select the power contract capacities (i.e. the maximum power demands claimed by consumers over different pricing periods) so that the electricity tariff can be calculated accordingly. This means that risk is transferred from the retailer side to the consumer side -- one has to pay more if a larger contract capacity is selected but can potentially mitigate the penalty charge placed when the maximum demand exceeds the contract level. In this thesis, a general stochastic modeling framework for consumer's power demand based on which the contract capacities of a Time-of-Use pricing system can be best selected so as to minimize the mean electricity price. Due to the observed nature of self-similarity and time dependence, the power demand over a homogeneous peak period is modeled as a constant mean with the noise described by a scaled fractional Brownian motion. However, the underlying optimization problem involves an intricate mathematical formulation, thus requiring techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation and numerical search so as to estimate the solution. Finally, a real data set from Ann Arbor, Michigan along with two pricing systems are used to illustrate our proposed method.

政府入口網站含蓋了眾多提供公共服務的網站，讓民眾或企業進行相關業務的辦理、資訊的查詢以及進行交易等行為。全國或是全球需要使用到政府服務，例如政府採購等之使用者皆是政府入口網站之服務對象。因此政府網站在資料流量含量方面較之於一般商業網站更為可觀，亦包含了電子商務性質。在此狀況下，政府角色亦已逐漸從管制調適為服務。就政府體策略或執行計畫而言，實施知識管理除可使行政單位的工作效率提昇，行政流程時間縮短，更可避免重覆錯誤及誤判訊息之可能。 　　本研究主要以行政院公共工程委員會目前所推行之『政府採購電子化』計畫為研究對象，冀於對未來五年能達到政府採購作業全面電子化提出建議。本研究之目標係分析研擬「政府電子採購入口網站」之關鍵成功因素，從而由「政府採購電子化」計畫現行系統歸納出具綜效之整合型「政府電子採購入口網站」功能架構，其工作內容如下： 　　1. 歸納、分析現行各系統及政府採購法推動之問題。 　　2. 瞭解國內政府入口網站之推動情形，分析企業資訊入口網站解決方案現況。 　　3. 利用分析層級程序法（Analytic Hierarchy Process，簡稱ＡＨＰ）歸納出三分類專家，包括工程會內部專家、公部門專家、產業界及學界專家所認為的「政府電子採購入口網站」之關鍵成功因素，同時也分析資訊職務與非資訊職務專家觀點之相異點。 　　4. 根據歸納出來之關鍵成功因素與內部需求，提出具建設性之「政府電子採購入口網站」功能架構雛形，建議工程會推動「政府採購入口網站」提供之功能依據。 　　本研究AHP法研究結果如下： 　　1. 本研究中之各類專家一般認為內在因素比外在環境因素之權重大。 　　2. 第三層關鍵成功因素包括知識管理機制之健全化、政策及法制配合度、使用者服務機制、資訊系統與營運。整體而言，工程會內部專家與產業界及學界專家兩類專家較重視政策及法制配合度構面因素，而公部門專家比較重視資訊系統與營運構面因素。資訊職務專家較重視政策及法制配合度構面因素，非資訊職務專家比較重視資訊系統與營運構面因素。 　　3. 整體最底層關鍵成功因素排名前七項分別為高階長官的參與和支持並訂定明確的目標、即時配合實際狀況，修正、鬆綁法規、充裕的資源配合、提昇法令約束力之效力、提供快速回應問題之機制、介面具親和力、操作流程循序簡單、提供高度的可靠性與穩定性。 　　本研究最後逐一對專家深入訪談、工程會需求訪談、企業資訊入口網站解決方案及關鍵成功因素AHP之分析等結果提出結論與建議。 / An e-Government Portal should integrates numerous websites that offer public service, and provides individuals or enterprises with a platform for trafficking, searching information, and conducting transactions. Thus, all the users, that need to access government service and government procurement information, are potential customers of the e-Government Portal website. Hence, the e-Government Portal website, with e-Commerce quality, has more enormous data flow and database contents in comparison with simple e-Commerce sites. Last but not least, the role of e-Government Portal website is turned gradually into a service provider from its simple transition role of inspection. 　　From government's strategic aspect, actions regarding knowledge management can not only improve the efficiency and streamline the administrative procedures, but also avoid the crisis of repeating failures and misleadings of messages. 　　The object of this research is the Electronic Procurement Plan, which was established and promoted by the Public Construction Commission (PCC) of The Executive Yuan, R.O.C. The goal of the Electronic Procurement Plan is to accomplish the electronic commerce of the government procurement entirely in five years. This study aims to find out the critical success factors (CSF) for the Government Electronic Procurement Portal Website, and to carry out a functional architecture for the synergic Government Electronic Procurement Portal Website via the following working packages : 　　1. to analyze and formulate the problems of promoting the electronic government procurement system and the government procurement law. 　　2. to discuss the ongoing domestic promotion programs of the e-Government Portal websites and analyze the status quo cases of the Enterprise Information Portal (EIP) solution. 　　3. to analyze and compare the critical success factors of the Government Electronic Procurement Portal Website of various expert viewpoints through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The experts come from the PCC internal public servants, public servants from other government agencies as well as industrialists and scholars. On the other hand, the different viewpoints between the IT background experts and non-IT background experts are also compared. 　　4. to summarize constitutive functional architecture for the Government Electronic Procurement Portal Website according to the resulted CSF and the PCC internal requirements. 　　The results of AHP analysis can be stated as following: 　　1. The internal factors outweigh external factors. 　　2. The third-level of factors of AHP architecture includes the solidity of knowledge management, the compatibility of policies and laws, the user service mechanism and the information systems and operations. Generally, the PCC internal public servants, industrialists and scholars pay more attention to the compatibility of policies and laws than the other public servants that put a lot of emphasis on the information systems and operations. The IT background experts value the compatibility of policies and laws, whereas the non-IT background experts emphasize the information systems and operations. 　　3. The top seven priority factors of the rock-bottom level factors include the involvements and endorsements of the top executives and establish the clear goals, the instantaneous emendation and relaxation of the laws, the compatibility of abundant resource, the effectiveness of promoting the law's constraint force, friendly interface and easily sequential operation flow and high reliability and stability. 　　At last, this research leads to the conclusions and suggestions in regard to in-depth experts interviews，PCC internal requirement investigations, EIP solutions and the AHP CSF analysis.