當企業面對資源與競爭全球化之市場發展趨勢，如何有效地運用多樣化且散佈的全球資源，做最有效的佈局，來因應日益激烈的市場競爭與挑戰，全球運籌管理愈行重要。但隨著企業經營的全球化，面對的風險與不確定性也逐漸增加，所以企業在做全球運籌管理時不確定因素應納入考量。 許多文獻對全球運籌管理模式作了不同角度的問題探討，其中Vidal and Goetschalckx從過去的文獻中將全球運籌模式加以比較，得到三點過去模式不足的部分：(1)不確定因素都未考慮，(2)BOM的限制，(3)國際化的因素如匯率及稅都未考慮。遂即於其研究中對不確定因素如需求變化及供應商可靠度等因素的改變與最小總成本對全球運籌管理系統的影響進行分析。 吳釜蒼(2002)以Vidal的架構，增加對於貨物自原物料採購至成品完成間的正向物流過程中，所可能經過的成員如供應商、工廠、倉庫、運輸管道進均加入可靠度考量來進行分析探討。本研究延伸其做法，除正向物流外，並擴展到商品或物料退貨、維修及資源回收的逆向物流過程中，可能經過的成員均加入可靠度的考量；並且針對兩種操作情境加以分析(1)特定成本之下求最大可靠度，(2)特定可靠度之上求最小總成本。其次，利用Fault Tree Analysis方法，配合績效評核項目，對可靠度加以量化分析，使其更符合實際狀況。 最後以範例資料來分析驗證此數量模式，並提出一方法論提供決策者在進行全球佈局規劃時，能以本研究提供的決策程序，找出影響全球運籌可靠度的關鍵因子，並可對合作夥伴可靠度進行分析，改善彼此關係或對其之取捨上能有一較客觀的參考依據，使其對總成本之影響能降至最低。 / Since the late 80s, due to the tensive pressures from globalization, customer demands, uncertainties, IT innovation, as well as the shorter product life cycle, businesses were struggling in how to quick response customer desires, in an effort to retain their niches. As a consequence, Global Logistic (GL), in turn, becomes the sharp weapon in this regard. Literature studied GL from various perspectives. Among these studies, Vidal & Goetschalckx compared models in previous studies, and came up with three major challenges in this area：(1) uncertainty was not taken into account; .(2) restrictions of the BOM structure are not clearly dealt with; and (3) key financial factors of internationalization, such as the exchange rate and taxes, were not modeled. Hence, in order to deal with such problems, Vidal & Goetschalckx carried on the analysis on the effects toward key factors of GL and total cost minimization by modeling the factor of suppliers’ reliability in their study. However, in Vidal & Goetschalckx‘s study, there was no further concerns of uncertainties on other players in the logistic system. Fu-Cang Wu takes uncertainties into account on the players of forward logistic system. As a consequence, this research aims to extend Vidal & Goetschalckx’s modus. In the mathematic model, this study adds the settings of reliabilities on players either in the forward logistics or in the reverse logistics. Besides, two operation modes are provided in the model：(1) seeking minimum cost on a target of system reliability; and (2) seeking maximum system reliability on a target of cost. Then, this research makes use of the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) for in depth analysis on reliability patterns. Finally, a methodology is established, which provides decision makers a reference basis, whenever he or she needs to place a global logistics system. Via the use of this prototype, it is believed to have a good mechanism for finding out the key influence factors of the reliability, enhancing buyer-seller relationships, and ensuring the goal of total cost minimization