分量迴歸在近幾年來的應用相當廣泛，但透過貝氏方法估計分量迴歸參數，是由Yu & Moyeed（2001）所提出，拜電腦運算發達之賜而生的新估計方法，因此在實證應用上的研究，貝氏分量迴歸仍在起步的狀態。並且應用馬可夫鍊蒙地卡羅方法的貝氏分量迴歸，在後驗分配的收斂上並沒有類似的探討文獻。因此本研究嘗試以馬可夫鍊蒙地卡羅方法的應用觀點出發，研究運用貝氏方法的分量迴歸估計是否達到馬可夫鍊所重視的收斂至穩態分配，也就是利用模擬資料，探討使用馬可夫鍊蒙地卡羅方法的貝氏分量迴歸在何種情況下，具有較好的收斂情形，以及選擇適當的提議分配。接著以台灣上市公司為例，依電子、紡織以及塑膠產業為別，利用貝氏分量迴歸，觀察民國86~90年，以及91~95年兩區間，股價報酬率在各分量下與財務比率的關連性，並依產業分別進行探討。 本論文研究結果指出，貝氏分量迴歸在使用時仍須注意馬可夫鍊的收斂情形，將馬可夫鍊的接受頻率定在約20%~30%為佳，且估計結果與Koenker & Bassett（1978）所提出的無母數方法相當一致。在實證資料的分析上，以電子、紡織以及塑膠產業各別的配適結果來看，都依產業別的不同而具有合理的解釋，但貝氏分量迴歸容易因自變數值域的問題，造成馬可夫鍊接受頻率不理想，以及收斂速度過慢的情形，因此在應用貝氏分量迴歸時，自變數值域的影響需要納入考慮，並仍須選擇適當的提議分配、馬可夫鍊重複次數，所得到的結果才會較佳。

本論文希望透過股權分散的變化，來預測下週或是下月的股價報酬率。因為，假設流通在外股數不變下，當股份從眾多持有少量股票的散戶，集中至持有大量股票的大股東或法人時，集保總人數會下降。而我們認為可以透過觀察集保總人數的變動率，來推測法人及大戶整題而言對該股票的預期方向，因為交易往往伴隨著成本，假設投資人為理性下，法人及大戶會買進或賣出股票往往是因資訊的流入，使得他們認為需要調整持股部位。 透過迴歸模型中的普通最小平方法，當週集保人數減少1%，下週股價報酬率平均而言顯著上升0.055%，年化後的報酬率為2.86%。而當月集保人數減少1%，下個月股價報酬率平均而言顯著上升0.074%，年化後的報酬率為0.89%。由上述結果，可以推斷集保總人數的變化，在統計上會顯著影響下週或下月的股價報酬率。另外，欲瞭解此指標是否適用於所有產業，發現使用上需避開造紙工業及資訊服務業，因該產業之迴歸分析結果為顯著正相關，無法與原先的假設推斷一致。 / Several researches discuss the predictability of the movement of institutional investors and major shareholders because they probably have better ability to analyze the stock or to gather relevant information. However, it is difficult to observe what they are doing especially major shareholder that don’t have obligation to disclose their holding rate. As a result, we wonder if the change in shareholders’ number implies the view of major players in stock markets. The empirical result demonstrates that decrease in shareholders’ number accompanied by positive stock return next period in a significant level which is in accordance with the economic intuition that we suppose the total number of shareholders could reflect the transition of stock shares from many individual investors to some major shareholders. Furthermore, there are systematic cross-industrial differences in the stock return reactions to the prior change of shareholders’ number. In spite of that, all of the industries with negative relationship reach significant level but the industries with positive relationship don’t.

本文的研究意旨在於探討企業所投入的研究發展支出及資本支出對經營績效及股價報酬產生何種影響，希望能提供給企業經營者在決定研發政策或資本支出決策時參考。 本論文以國內上市櫃公司（除金融服務業外）作為研究樣本，並以2001年至2011年間為實證期間，進行迴歸模型分析，探討研發支出、資本支出等重大支出對於公司經營績效及股價報酬所產生的效果，並探討國內電子次產業如半導體產業、光電產業、電腦周邊產業及電子零組件產業在研發與資本支出對經營績效與股價報酬的影響差異度；本論文在公司經營績效及市場價值的衡量指標，係以公司之資產報酬率、股東權益報酬率、營業毛利率、營業淨利率、營收成長率及公司Tobin’s Q值與股價報酬等作為衡量指標。 實證結果發現： 一、 就全體產業而言，研究發展支出對於企業之營業毛利率、營業淨利率及Tobin’s Q值有顯著正相關，但對於企業之營收成長率、資產報酬率、股東權益報酬率以及公司股價報酬率等項目並未出現顯著相關性；資本支出對企業之資產報酬率及股東權益報酬率則出現顯著負相關，同時資本支出對企業Tobin’s Q值及股價報酬率出現顯著負相關，但對於企業之營收成長率、營業毛利率、營業淨利率等未出現顯著相關性。 二、 針對電子次產業實證結果： 1. 針對半導體產業實證發現，研究發展支出對於公司資產報酬率出現顯著正相關，資本支出對於公司Tobin’s Q值及股價報酬率則呈現顯著負相關。 2. 針對光電產業的實證發現，研究發展支出對於企業經營績效指標包括公司營收成長率、營業毛利率、營業淨利率、資產報酬率及股東權益報酬率等，全數呈現顯著正相關；而資本支出對於公司Tobin’s Q值或股價報酬率呈現顯著正相關，但對於營業毛利率、營業淨利率、資產報酬率及股東權益報酬率等則呈現顯著負相關。 3. 針對電腦週邊產業的實證發現，研究發展支出對於公司營收成長率、營業淨利率、資產報酬率、股東權益報酬率及公司Tobin’s Q值等皆呈現顯著正相關；而資本支出則對於公司營收成長率出現顯著正相關。 4. 針對零組件產業的實證發現，研究發展支出對於公司營收成長率、營業毛利率、營業淨利率、資產報酬率、股東權益報酬率、公司Tobin’s Q值及股價報酬率等全數呈現顯著正相關；而資本支出對於公司營業毛利率、資產報酬率及股東權益報酬率等出現顯著負相關。 / This research mainly examines the related effect of R&D expenditure and capital investment on corporate performance and company’s stock price. The results of this study are trying to offer reference opinions to corporate executive officers that will make R&D or capital investment decisions. In this study, the database includes the listed companies in Taiwan Stock exchange except the finance industry from 2001 to 2011. We adopt R&D expenditure and capital investment as the independent variables of evaluating of corporate performance and company’s stock price, and also choose the growth rate of sales, the operating margin ratio, the net profit margin ratio, the return on total assets, the return on equity, Tobin's Q Ratio and company’s stock price as the dependent variables. The results of this investigation could be summarized as follows: 1. For all targeted industries, R&D expenditure had positive, significant influence on the operating margin ratio, the net profit margin ratio and Tobin's Q Ratio. Capital investment had negative, significant influence on the return on total assets, the return on equity, Tobin's Q Ratio and company’s stock price. 2. For Semiconductor industry, R&D expenditure had positive, significant influence on the return on total assets. Capital investment had negative, significant influence on Tobin's Q Ratio and company’s stock price. 3. For Optoelectronics industry, R&D expenditure had positive, significant influence on growth rate of sales, the operating margin ratio, the net profit margin ratio, the return on total assets, the return on equity. Capital investment had positive, significant influence on Tobin's Q Ratio and company’s stock price. 4. For Computer peripheral industry, R&D expenditure had positive, significant influence on growth rate of sales, the operating margin ratio, the net profit margin ratio, the return on total assets, the return on equity, and Tobin's Q Ratio. Capital investment had positive, significant influence on the growth rate of sales. 5. For Electronic components/material industry, R&D expenditure had positive, significant influence on growth rate of sales, the operating margin ratio, the net profit margin ratio, the return on total assets, the return on equity, Tobin's Q Ratio and company’s stock price. Capital investment had negative, significant influence on the operating margin ratio, the return on total assets and the return on equity.