本研究主要是在探討成長機會與股價變動的關係，並檢視考慮各公司間成長機會差異與盈餘特續性變數後，是否會增加盈餘資訊內涵之解釋能力。一般而言，盈餘資訊確具資訊內涵，唯解釋能力不高(Lev, 1989)。本研究首先分析成長機會與股票報酬的關聯性；同時透過分析成長機會與盈餘間關係的推演，亦可進一步確定盈餘與成長機會對股票報酬真正的影響程度。 本研究分析民國 81 年至 85 年股票上市公司資料（排除金融、保險、百貨、觀光及變更交易方式的公司），經由模式建立與假說驗證，得到下列幾項發現： 一、由二種不同會計盈餘衡量的實證結果來看，“以期股價平減的會計報酬率”是股票報酬的解釋變數，且其 t 值檢定均達 0.01 的顯著水準。 二、代表成長機會的權益市價淨值比、營收成長率及經常淨利成長率是股票報酬的解釋變數，且其 t 值檢定達 0.05 或 0.01 的顯著水準。 三、關於成長機會與盈餘關係之測試，結果顯示，代表會計盈餘的每股稅後經常淨利與成長機會具有顯著正相關；代表會計盈餘的每股營運現金流量與成長機會的關係不顯著或是呈現負相關。 四、另外，關於成長機會與盈餘兩者對股票報酬關係之測試，結果顯示，代表交互作用變數之係數時而為顯著負相關，時而不顯著，故成長機會與盈餘兩者對股票報酬具有正向關聯的假設，未獲實證資料的支持。 / The major purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between growth opportunities and variance of stock price. and to indicate that the inclusion of impact of different growth opportunities in addition to earnings persistence among firms, whether the results can improve the explanatory power of information content. Lev(1989) demonstrated that accounting earnings is an useful information but its usefulness is quite unstable. First of all, this study is to analysize the association between growth opportunities and stock returns, and through the deduction of analysizing the reationship between growth opportunities and earnings, the true effect of growth oppotunities in addition to earnings on stock rate of returns can be identified further. To test the hypotheses, this study uses the data of Twiwanese listed companies covering the period from 1992 to 1996. The empirical fingings can be summarized as follows: 一、With regard to the empirical results for two different accounting earnings measures, including taxs adjusted operating profit and cash flow from operation, which we can find that the factor related to stock price deflated accounting earnings has significant association with stock returns. 二、The growth opportunities regression coefficients are 0.05 or 0.01 in the regression of proxies for growth oppotunities, including book-to-market equity, sales growth ratio, and operating profit growth rate on stock rate of returns. 三、The tests regarding the relationship between growth opportunities and earnings show that the coefficients based on the stock price deflated operating profit are positive significance; and those based on the stock price deflated cash flows from operation are insignificant or negative significance. 四、The tests regarding the relationship between the interaction of growth opportunities in addition to earnings and stock rate of returns show that the coefficients of the variable proxies for interaction are unstable. The hypothesis that the interaction response coefficients of growth opportunities in addition to earnings and stock rate of returns are positive relations is not supported by empirical evidence.

本論文主要將Blandchard(1981)及朱美麗、曹添旺(1986)之論文加以拓展為民眾在有 政策預期的情況下，擴張性貨幣政策的采行對股價及匯率等有關的經濟變數的影響效 果。本文主要可分為五章，分別敘述如下： 第一章為序論，主要說明本文的特色與主旨。 第二章為模型分析，主要區分為兩節：第一節為模型分析所須的假定及理論模型的設 定；第二節為模型的解。主要分為長期均衡、動態調整路徑及向穩定均衡收斂的馬鞍 路徑等三個部分。 第三章為政府采行突發性貨幣干擾的影響效果分析。主要可分為三節加以說明：第一 節為長期效果分析；第二節為調整路徑；第三節為圖形說明。 第四章為本文重心所在。主要探討民眾在事先得知政府將于未來采行擴張性的貨幣政 策時，主要經濟變數如匯率及股價的調整路徑。主要分四節加以說明，第一節為調整 路徑；第二節為衝擊效果及動態調整路徑分析；第三節為電腦模擬分析；第四節為經 濟意義的解釋與說明。 第五章為結論。 #50002769 #50002769