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每個人在面臨特定的選擇集合時, 可能會有不同的選擇行為發生, 如果將每個人的反 應集合起來, 組成一組資料, 利用這些資料, 我們就可以導出一種行為模式。一般的 行為模式都將應變數視為連續變數( 例如需求量),近年發展出的個體選擇模式(Discr -ete Choice Model)則將應變數視為間斷的(Discrete)孌數( 例如交通工具的選擇: 汽車=1、火車=2、飛機=3等等) 。藉由這種模式, 我們可以進一步研究或預測人類在 面臨各種選擇時所產生的行為。 一個行為模式, 包含了可以被觀察的自變數和未知的參數, 我們利用抽樣觀察而得的 資料來推估這些未知的參數, 但不同的抽樣方法會導致不同的估計值。一般而言, 在 這類問題中應用到的抽樣方法有三種:1. 簡單隨機抽樣、2.外生分層抽樣、3.內生分 層抽樣。本文主要的研究內容集中在探討運用不同的內生分層抽樣法所推估的參數值 之間的差異。 研究方法大致可分為三個步驟: 一. 閱讀前人的文獻, 彙總整理前人的方法, 并發現新的抽樣與估計法: 此法是先決 定內生分層后每層的抽樣比例, 再用系統抽樣的方法抽出樣本, 最后用最大概似法對 參數加以推估。以Binary Logit Model為例: P(1︱x)=1/(1+exp(-xb)) P(0︱x)=1/(1+exp(xb)) 其log likelihood fuction為 logL=Σ {y [log(gl)+log(p(1︱x )]+(1-y )[log(g0)+log(P(0︱x )]-log[gl P (1︱x )+g0 P(0︱x )]} 其中y =1 or 0;gi是選擇i 選項的抽樣比例(i=1 or 0);x 為自變數;b是欲估計的參 數。 二、證明利用新法所產生之估計式, 和前人所研究出的估計式同樣具有一致性。 三、模擬一組母體, 再比較新法與前人的估計式間的差異。

個體選擇模式(discrete choice model)廣泛應用於國外的交通運輸及行銷領域，而國內交通運輸領域，也長期以此模式分析個體的運具選擇行為。反觀國內的行銷領域，因較難取得消費者的商品品牌購買紀錄，而鮮少應用個體選擇模式分析消費者的選擇行為。有鑒於此，本研究嘗試以問卷收集消費者對三個洗髮精品牌的選擇行為，以個體選擇模式中的多項邏輯模式(multinomial logit model)、巢狀邏輯模式(nested multinomial logit model)、混合多項邏輯模式(mixed logit model)進行分析，檢驗問卷設計中的促銷活動、消費者特性對選擇行為的影響性。 實證分析的結果發現，洗髮精的原價格及促銷折扣、贈品容量、加量不加價等促銷活動，皆對消費者的選擇行為有顯著的影響力，其中促銷折扣與贈品容量影響的程度較大，是較具有效果的促銷活動。而消費者的性別、年齡、職業及品牌更換的頻率，皆影響洗髮精的選擇行為。此外，消費者若固定選擇自己最常購買的洗髮精，此類型的消費者與其他人的品牌選擇行為，也有顯著的不同。 此外，根據本研究樣本，我們也發現海倫仙度絲與潘婷間的替代、互補性較強。 / Discrete choice model has been demonstrated to be a useful tool for analyzing consumers’ choice behavior data in the area of transportation and marketing research. However, since a complete data set containing consumers’ history of purchase behavior was rarely available to public, the model was less popular in the marketing research area than in the transportation research in Taiwan. Based on limited survey data on consumers’ choice among three different brands of shampoo, we applied multinomial logit model、nested multinomial logit model、mixed logit model in this study to understand promotion program’s effect on consumers’ choice behavior , the result showed that shampoos’ original price、discount、volume of hair conditioner bestowal、more volume with the same price all had significant impacts on consumers’ choice behavior, among them, discount and volume of hair conditioner bestowel influenced more .In addition, consumers’ gender、age、occupation and frequency of changing brands also affected consumers on choosing brands of shampoos. The study also found that a consumer who chose the same brand regularly behaved notably differently.

近來，臺灣教育部為招收更多國際學生而實行新政策。本研究分析政策實行的效果、學生來臺原因及在臺學生的滿意度。研究一以時間序列分析1954至2008年的國際學生人數，ARIMA模式的預測效果良好(RER=0.83%)，未來三年內國際學生人數將突破二萬人。研究二以問卷調查分析學生選擇留學國家及學校的選擇因素，同時分析學生來臺動機、所遇困難及在臺滿意度間的關係 (N=210)。結果顯示容易的簽證程序及臺灣的學術聲望影響學生來臺讀書；此外，財務、後勤及生活條件影響學生選擇留學學校。學生因臺學術聲望來臺且無食物適應困難者，願意再次來臺念書；學生因具吸引力課程及方便生活環境來臺且無硬體設備及學習適應方面困難者，願意建議他人來臺留學。根據研究結果，政府應加強國內教學品質，並協助提升學校學術聲望；增加赴海外任教教師，以教學專業提升我國國際形象。有興趣吸引國際學生的學校應可從健全學校行政體制著手，並聚焦於完善學生招生、入學諮詢輔導工作及協助生活適應。 / Recently, the Taiwanese Ministry of Education has implemented a new policy to recruit more international students. This study analyzes the policy’s effects and the reasons motivating students to study in Taiwan. The number of international students in Taiwan from 1954 to 2008 was used to generate a time series model to estimate the number of international students before and after the policy implementation. This ARIMA model (RER=0.83%) demonstrated a dramatic increase in the number of international students over the years. Using a questionnaire designed to examine determinants that affect international students’ decisions for choosing Taiwan and their respective schools (N=210), this study then study the relationship between the students’ motivations, the challenges they faced, and their degree of satisfaction with their experiences. Results demonstrated that an easy visa application process and Taiwan’s acclaimed academic reputation attracted students. Furthermore, financial, logistical, and living reasons affected the students’ choices in schools. Students who found living and educational conditions favorable and who felt intellectually stimulated would choose again to study in Taiwan and would recommend others to do so. Based on these results, the government should strengthen the quality of instruction and further promote Taiwan’s universities abroad. Schools interested in attracting international students should develop structured administrative systems focused on recruiting students and helping them transition into a new environment.

最近幾年來，網際網路的出現及應用面的廣泛，改變了企業的資訊架構。從Client/Server擴展到以Web為應用程式的平台，企業面臨了資訊架構的重整，企業網路、電子商務都是現今最新的應用。由於全球資訊網採開放架構，並以HTML、HTTP為標準，使得資訊業者有所依循，開發出許多產品來滿足企業的需求。隨著Web的廣泛使用，應用程式架構、介面與行為特質都將與以往有著大大的不同，元件及交易導向的Web應用程式是勢在必行的路。 對此變革，企業最重要的課題之一是，如何建構完整的企業網路環境以增強競爭力。資料庫系統是企業各種資訊軟體的基礎，在以Web為應用程式的平台的架構下，它仍是其中重要的關鍵元件。選擇資料庫系統必須考慮許多因素，而且現有的資料庫系統的產品很多，各項產品的特性與優點均有不同，每一種產品甚至可再細分成許多元件，可依照需要選用，因此資料庫產品的選擇變成一種複雜的過程。若選擇錯誤則不僅是金錢耗費的損失，更深遠地影響整個企業的順利運作，甚至是企業競爭力的下降，更可能嚴重到影響企業的存續。故資料庫系統的選擇不可不慎。 本文提出一網際網路資料庫體系選擇模式，協助企業在全球資訊網的開放架構及多階層應用系統環境下，評選出符合企業本身狀況及需求的網際網路資料庫系統。此模式內容包含，需求分析與確認、第一至四級網際網路資料庫體系需求屬性之彙整、兩階段的廠商篩選及含加權機制之廠商評比。 最後並將此模式運用於，行政院衛生署藥物食品檢驗局之購置網際網路資料庫設備計劃。 / Internet technology has drastically changed the enterprise computing and platform. Database management and systems represent the core of the change and the key of the new revolution of the information technology and infrastructure. Business information and models have been stored and manipulated through the use of the database technology. Due to the fast growing speed and variety of the database products in the marketplace, managers are having difficult making the right decision in selecting and maintaining the Internet database management and systems. To tackle this issue, we propose a requirements-based software selection model from the user’s viewpoint. In this research, we develop a five-step choice model with an emphasis on the requirement analysis and rank analysis. We collect and compile the functional and non-functional characteristics and features of the Internet database management and systems. We classify and organize them into a four-layer hierarchy and work with the weight mechanism in the rank analysis. This choice model adopts another five-part rank policy in order to produce the final suggestion of software selection. In the end, we apply the new model in a field case study of the Web Database Systems Procurement Project with the National Laboratories of Foods and Drugs, Department of Health, Executive Yuan.